scholarly journals Prediction of groundwater trends for irrigation in Northern Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Abid Hossain Mridha ◽  
Syed Hafizur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Coarse Sand ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bengal Basin ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
Tube Wells ◽  
Dry Seasons ◽  
And Storage

Abstract Groundwater trends affect the domestic, agricultural, and industrial prospects of a region. The study area is Bogura, a northern region of Bangladesh, located on the Pleistocene terrace of the Bengal Basin. The aquifer consists of medium-to-coarse sand, located at a depth of 4.66–42.68 m; groundwater is scarce during dry seasons. The water table (WT) time-series data for 2007–2019 were used for forecasting and characterizing present and future groundwater conditions using existing numerical simulations. The annual groundwater budget for discharge and storage was 2,772 and 2,442 Mm3, respectively. Thus, the annual scarcity of groundwater was 330.4 Mm3 (13.5%), excluding the surface water contribution of 10 Mm3 (0.4%). The present spacing of deep tube wells (DTWs) and shallow tube wells (STWs) were 744 and 372 m, respectively. Currently, the DTW spacing ranged 744–800 m; however, the STW spacing of 250–372 m is higher than the set distance. Hence, further installations of STWs were strictly disallowed for irrigation. WT declined by 1.0 m in the last 13 years, i.e., 0.07 m or 1.2% decline rate per annum, causing water scarcity in the region during the peak period in the dry season (June–February), thus affecting irrigation and limiting agricultural production.

Trend and Pattern of Cereal Crops: Production, Productivity and Area Coverage in Nepal

Patan Pragya ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 188-195
Author(s):  
Bhaba Datta Sapkota
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Area Coverage ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cereal Crops ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Rugged Topography ◽  
Future Plans

This study conducted to examine growth trends and pattern in area, production and productivity of major cereal crops over the six fiscal years. Time series data of cereal crops coverage of annual yield were used for the study. This study was based on descriptive nature and used secondary sources of information on production, productivity and area coverage of major cereals (Paddy, Maize, Wheat, Millet, Buckwheat and Barley) covering the six fiscal years (2011/12-20116/17) data. Trends of crop's productivity were analyzed using graphical methods. Ratio and percentage were used to measure productivity (yield) growth rate of the selected crops of study. The yielding trend of cereal production is not satisfactory in Nepalese economy. Pattern of agricultural production in Nepal is affected by multiple factors including rugged topography, monsoon, insignificant investment in infrastructure, and research and development. Production and productivity would be helpful to develop the future plans and take the appropriate decisions to uphold the situation for the sustainability in food production.

scholarly journals External Debt and Agricultural Production in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Wilson Ebhotemhen ◽  
David Umoru
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Inverse Association ◽  
Yield Increase ◽  
Test Instrument ◽  
Foreign Loans

Over time, Nigeria has experienced upsurge in external debt stock and several studies have estimated negative impact of growing external debt on economic growth. On sectoral basis therefore, our study proceeds to evaluate such impact of external debt on growth of agricultural production in Nigeria using time series data for the period of study 1980 to 2017. For this purpose, we utilized co-integration being test instrument and ECM to investigate link among variables used. The empirical results reveal that external debt failed to yield increase in output returns in agricultural productivity by its inverse association with agricultural output. This indicates that acquired external loans for agriculture within period of study were not optimally utilized for same resolve. Hence, we advise that Nigerian government should demonstrate sound commitment to effective debt management in order to ensure foreign loans are suitably channeled and healthily utilized for purpose acquired for as this would equally guarantee that the output returns would be sufficient for debt service obligation and balance to promote growth in other sectors of Nigerian economy.

scholarly journals Trend Analysis of Rainfall Time Series in Shanxi Province, Northern China (1957–2019)

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2335
Author(s):  
Feng Gao ◽  
Yunpeng Wang ◽  
Xiaoling Chen ◽  
Wenfu Yang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Shanxi Province ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Wutai Shan

Changes in rainfall play an important role in agricultural production, water supply and management, and social and economic development in arid and semi-arid regions. The objective of this study was to examine the trend of rainfall series from 18 meteorological stations for monthly, seasonal, and annual scales in Shanxi province over the period 1957–2019. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Spearman’s Rho (SR) test, and the Revised Mann–Kendall (RMK) test were used to identify the trends. Sen’s slope estimator (SSE) was used to estimate the magnitude of the rainfall trend. An autocorrelation function (ACF) plot was used to examine the autocorrelation coefficients at various lags in order to improve the trend analysis by the application of the RMK test. The results indicate remarkable differences with positive and negative trends (significant or non-significant) depending on stations. The largest number of stations showing decreasing trends occurred in March, with 10 out of 18 stations at the 10%, 5%, and 1% levels. Wutai Shan station has strong negative trends in January, March, April, November, and December at the level of 1%. In addition, Wutai Shan station also experienced a significant decreasing trend over four seasons at a significance level of 1% and 10%. On the annual scale, there was no significant trend detected by the three identification methods for most stations. MK and SR tests have similar power for detecting monotonic trends in rainfall time series data. Although similar results were obtained by the MK/SR and RMK tests in this study, in some cases, unreasonable trends may be provided by the RMK test. The findings of this study could benefit agricultural production activities, water supply and management, drought monitoring, and socioeconomic development in Shanxi province in the future.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Nepal: Case of Kavre and Jumla districts

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 43-50
Author(s):  
K.S. Pandey ◽  
H. Shrestha ◽  
L.P. Devkota
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Specific Objective ◽  
Analytical Tools ◽  
The Impact

The study the analyzed relationship of climate change with agricultural production in Kavre and Jumla districts. The specific objective of the study was to find out the dimension and linkage between agricultural production and climatic parameters in Kavre and Jumla. Time series data were analysed for the study. The data was sourced from the Department of Hydrology Meteorology, Department of Agriculture, and National Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive statistics, linear analysis test and back ward difference filter were the analytical tools used to determine the impact of climate change on productivity. During harvest period, the correlation of rice yield with temperature and rainfall was negative at Kavre but positive at Jumla. Similarly, the correlation of wheat yield with temperature and rainfall was positive at Kavre but negative at Jumla. The result showed that extreme fluctuation in weather caused negative impact on production in Jumla in compared to Kavre districts.

A Critical Evaluation of Computational Methods of Forecasting Based on Fuzzy Time Series

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prateek Pandey ◽  
Shishir Kumar ◽  
Sandeep Srivastava
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Performance Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Critical Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Disaster Area ◽  
Agriculture Industry ◽  
Influential Parameters

The agricultural production is a process, which being nonlinear in nature, due to various influential parameters like weather, rainfall, diseases, disaster, area of cultivation etc., is not governed by any deterministic process. Fuzzy time series forecasting is one of the approaches for predicting the future values where neither a trend is viewed nor a pattern is followed, for example, in case of sugar, Lahi and rice production. Various forecasting methods have been developed on the basis of fuzzy time series data, but accuracy has been a mercurial factor in these forecasts. In this paper, performance analysis of different fuzzy time series (FTS) models has been carried out. The analysis is applicable to any available time series data of product. In this paper performance analysis is done on the data of Indian agro products that include sugarcane, Lahi and rice. The suitability of different FTS models have been critically examined over the production data of the three agro products. The paper establishes the applicability of FTS methods also in the agriculture industry.

scholarly journals Basic principles of the TEVY index for the quantification of temperature variability within a year

2021 ◽  
Vol 899 (1) ◽  
pp. 012023
Author(s):  
Theodoros Kalyvas ◽  
Stella Manika ◽  
Efthimios Zervas
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fourier Series ◽  
Harmonic Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fourier Harmonic ◽  
Climatic Features

Abstract In the context of climate change, there is a need for the determination of appropriate indexes for the quantification of temperature variability. A new index (TEVY index) is proposed in this work. This index uses the deviation of the observed temperature values from those estimated from a Fourier harmonic analysis. For this purpose, a nearly 50-year time series data from 4 stations in Greece, with very different climatic conditions, are used. One station is located in the colder northern region of Greece, another one is in the warmest southern part, while the 2 other stations are representative of continental and Mediterranean climatic features. A Fourier harmonic analysis is carried out to obtain the Fourier series which simulates the observed data time series. Fourier harmonic analysis, which is relied on the Fourier transform, is a well-established method for time series analysis, particularly for modelling periodic data. Using this procedure, an index of temperature variability is proposed, as the sum of the divergence of the above-mentioned Fourier series from the observed data. The index results are analysed as a function of the different climatic features of each station.

scholarly journals Climatic Changes Effects on Agricultural Production: An Assessment in Case of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol V (III) ◽  
pp. 11-21
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahid ◽  
M. Niamatullah ◽  
Bibi Aisha Sadiqa
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Residential Building ◽  
Agricultural Economics ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Climatic Variations ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Gas Fuel ◽  
Different Sources

The emission of carbon from electricity, gas fuel consumption, residential building and commercial buildings has raised the temperature of the region, affecting agricultural production. The agaric sector is sensitive to change in temperature. This paper examines the climatic variations due to CO2 emission from different sources is inclined to the yield of production by taking time series data over the period from 1984 -2015. The Auto-Regressive Distributive lag model was applied to estimate the results. Moreover, diagnostic test, stability test and error correction mechanism were operated on the dataset, reveals the rising temperature, pollution and emission from residential affects the agaric production negatively I case of Pakistan. I have reviewed the literature on this topic, but a very limited portion of the literature discusses this issue. Hence this paper will contribute a lot in agricultural economics fields.

scholarly journals Coupled Delft3D-Object Model to Predict Mobility and Burial of Munition on Sandy Floor

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter C. Chu ◽  
Vinicius S. Pessanha ◽  
Chenwu Fan
Keyword(s):  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Development Program ◽  
Environmental Research ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Physical Parameters ◽  
Object Model ◽  
Wave Direction ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
Rolling Moment

Coupled Delft3D-object model has been developed to predict object’s mobility and burial on sandy seafloor. The Delft3D model is used to predict seabed environment such as currents, waves (peak period, significant wave height, wave direction), water level, sediment transport, and seabed change, which are taken as the forcing term to the object model consisting of three components: (a) object‘s physical parameters such as diameter, length, mass, and rolling moment, (b) dynamics of rolling cylinder around its major axis, and (c) empirical sediment scour model with re-exposure parameterization. The model is compared with the observational data collected from a field experiment from 21 April to 23 May 2013 off the coast of Panama City, Florida funded by the Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program. The experimental data contain both objects’ mobility using sector scanning and pencil beam sonars and simultaneous environmental time series data of the boundary layer hydrodynamics and sediment transport conditions. Comparison between modeled and observed data clearly show the model capability.

Effect of Petroleum Pricing on Agricultural Production in Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 17-28
Author(s):  
Isaac B. Oluwatayo ◽  
Henrietta U. Ukpe
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
The World ◽  
Increasing Trend

Nigeria is a dominant economic force in sub-Saharan Africa with a strong economy as well as booming oil and agricultural sectors. However, over-dependence on the production and export of oil as well as food imports has rendered the economy vulnerable to global price fluctuations. The increasing spate of fluctuations in the world price of oil affects not only the economic sector but also agricultural production. Despite the huge earnings from oil, Nigeria remains one of the most food insecure countries in the world. This study therefore estimates the effect of petrol or premium motor spirit (PMS) pricing on agricultural production using available time series data for 41 years (1970-2010) obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria's Annual Statistical Reports and National Bureau of Statistic's Bulletins. The study reveals that the trend in production level of agricultural products persistently increased between 1984 and 2000, followed by a much lower growth rate between 2001 and 2002 sub-period and the increasing trend picked up again in 2003. There was an increasing trend pattern of petrol (PMS) prices except for 2009 when the price dropped from N70 to N65. Consumption of PMS was not relatively constant either. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) results show that the quantity of agricultural output increased with the price of PMS. However, consumption of PMS had an inverse relationship with agricultural output.

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