Using runoff slope-break to determine dominate factors of runoff decline in Hutuo River Basin, North China

2009 ◽  
Vol 60 (8) ◽  
pp. 2135-2144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Tian ◽  
Yonghui Yang ◽  
Shumin Han
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
River Basin ◽  
North China ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Mann Kendall Test

Water resources in North China have declined sharply in recent years. Low runoff (especially in the mountain areas) has been identified as the main factor. Hutuo River Basin (HRB), a typical up-stream basin in North China with two subcatchments (Ye and Hutuo River Catchments), was investigated in this study. Mann-Kendall test was used to determine the general trend of precipitation and runoff for 1960–1999. Then Sequential Mann-Kendall test was used to establish runoff slope-break from which the beginning point of sharp decline in runoff was determined. Finally, regression analysis was done to illustrate runoff decline via comparison of precipitation-runoff correlation for the period prior to and after sharp runoff decline. This was further verified by analysis of rainy season peak runoff flows. The results are as follows: (1) annual runoff decline in the basin is significant while that of precipitation is insignificant at α=0.05 confidence level; (2) sharp decline in runoff in Ye River Catchment (YRC) occurred in 1968 while that in Hutuo River Catchment (HRC) occurred in 1978; (3) based on the regression analysis, human activity has the highest impact on runoff decline in the basin. As runoff slope-breaks in both Catchments strongly coincided with increase in agricultural activity, agricultural water use is considered the dominate factor of runoff decline in the study area.

Determination of the period of major runoff decline and related driving factors in Ye River Basin, North China

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 154-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Tian ◽  
Yonghui Yang ◽  
Shumin Han ◽  
Juana P. Moiwo ◽  
Guoyu Qiu
Keyword(s):  
North China ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Mountain Watershed ◽  
Agricultural Water Use ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Precipitation Events

There is a sharp decline in runoff and available water resources in North China in recent years. Not only the causes, but also the magnitudes, especially of the dwindling runoff remain largely unclear. Hence the Ye Rive Basin, a typical mountain watershed in North China, is used in this study to determine: (1) the trend of precipitation and runoff via a Mann–Kendall test; (2) the period of drastic runoff decline via a sequential Mann–Kendall test and (3) the driving factors of runoff decline via (i) runoff comparisons for dry and wet years with similar precipitation events, and (ii) regression comparisons on precipitation and runoff for the pre- and post-development periods. Analysis of 40 years (1960–1999) of data shows a significant decline in annual runoff, whereas annual precipitation remains relatively stable. In the basin, runoff decline started in 1974, and became drastic in 1978. Furthermore, runoff analysis for typical dry and wet years, and regression comparisons, indicate that human activity is the main driving factor of runoff decline in the basin. Agricultural water use is the dominant cause of the drastic hydrological changes in the study area.

scholarly journals An Investigation into the Spatial and Temporal Variability of the Meteorological Drought in Jordan

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haitham Aladaileh ◽  
Mohammed Al Qinna ◽  
Barta Karoly ◽  
Emad Al-Karablieh ◽  
János Rakonczai
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Hierarchical Clustering ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
The Impact

Following the impact of droughts witnessed during the last decade there is an urgent need to develop a drought management strategy, policy framework, and action plan for Jordan. This study aims to provide a historical baseline using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and meteorological drought maps, and to investigate the spatial and temporal trends using long-term historical precipitation records. Specifically, this study is based on the statistical analysis of 38 years of monthly rainfall data, gathered from all 29 meteorological stations that cover Jordan. The Mann–Kendall test and linear regression analysis were used to uncover evidence of long-term trends in precipitation. Drought indices were used for calculating the meteorological SPI on an annual (SPI12), 6-months (SPI6), and 3-months basis (SPI3). At each level, every drought event was characterized according to its duration, interval, and intensity. Then, drought maps were generated using interpolation kriging to investigate the spatial extent of drought events, while drought patterns were temporally characterized using multilinear regression and spatial grouped using the hierarchical clustering technique. Both annual and monthly trend analyses and the Mann–Kendall test indicated significant reduction of precipitation in time for all weather stations except for Madaba. The rate of decrease is estimated at approximately 1.8 mm/year for the whole country. The spatial SPI krig maps that were generated suggest the presence of two drought types in the spatial dimension: Local and national. Local droughts reveal no actual observed trends or repeatable patterns of occurrence. However, looking at meteorological droughts across all time scales indicated that Jordan is facing an increasing number of local droughts. With a probability of occurrence of once every two years to three years. On the other hand, extreme national droughts occur once every 15 to 20 years and last for two or more consecutive years. Linear trends indicated significant increase in drought magnitude by time with a rate of 0.02 (p < 0.0001). Regression analysis indicated that draught in Jordan is time dependent (p < 0.001) rather than being spatially dependent (p > 0.99). Hierarchical clustering was able to group national draughts into three zones, namely the northern zone, the eastern zone, and the southern zone. This study highlights the urgent need for a monitoring program to investigate local and national drought impacts on all sectors, as well as the development of a set of proactive risk management measures and preparedness plans for various physiographic regions.

scholarly journals Trend Analysis of Hydroclimatic Variables in the Kamo River Basin, Japan

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1782 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maochuan Hu ◽  
Takahiro Sayama ◽  
Sophal TRY ◽  
Kaoru Takara ◽  
Kenji Tanaka
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
River Basin ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Significant Trend ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Proactive Measures

Understanding long-term trends in hydrological and climatic variables is of high significance for sustainable water resource management. This study focuses on the annual and seasonal trends in precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and river discharge over the Kamo River basin from the hydrological years 1962 to 2017. Homogeneity was examined by Levene’s test. The Mann–Kendall and a modified Mann–Kendall test as well as Sen’s slope estimator were used to analyze significant trends (p < 0.05) in a time series with and without serial correlation and their magnitudes. The results indicate that potential evapotranspiration calculated by the Penman–Monteith equation was highly related to temperature, and significantly increased in the annual and summer series. Annual river discharge significantly decreased by 0.09 m3/s. No significant trend was found at the seasonal scale. Annual, autumn, and winter precipitation at Kumogahata station significantly increased, while no significant trend was found at Kyoto station. Precipitation was least affected by the modified Mann–Kendall test. Other variables were relatively highly autocorrelated. The modified Mann–Kendall test with a full autocorrelation structure improved the accuracy of trend analysis. Furthermore, this study provides information for decision makers to take proactive measures for sustainable water management.

scholarly journals Air Temperature Change in the Southern Tarim River Basin, China, 1964–2011

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benfu Zhao ◽  
Jianhua Xu ◽  
Zhongsheng Chen ◽  
Ling Bai ◽  
Peng Li
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Negative Correlation ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Change Rate ◽  
Mann Kendall Test

The temperature data from 3 meteorological stations (Kashi, Ruoqiang, and Hotan) in the South of Tarim River Basin (STRB) during 1964–2011 were analyzed by Mann-Kendall test and correlation analysis. The results from Mann-Kendall test show that the surface temperature (ST), 850 hPa temperature (T850), and 700 hPa temperature (T700) exhibited upward trends, while 300 hPa temperature (T300) revealed a downward trend. On the whole, the change rate of ST, T850, T700, and T300 was 0.26~0.46°C/10a, 0.15~0.40°C/10a, 0.03~0.10°C/10a, and −0.38~−0.13°C/10a, respectively. For the periods, ST and T850 declined during 1964–1997 and then rose during 1998–2011. T700 declined during 1964–2005 and then rose during 2006–2011, while T300 rose from 1964 to 1970s and then declined. The results from correlation analysis show that T850 and T700 positively correlated with ST (P<0.01) at the all three stations and there was a negative correlation between T300 and ST at Hotan (P<0.1), while the correlation is not significant at Kashi and Ruoqiang. The results indicate that there were gradient differences in the response of upper-air temperature (UT) to ST change.

scholarly journals Evaluating piezometric trends using the Mann-Kendall test on the alluvial aquifers of the Elqui River basin, Chile

2015 ◽  
Vol 60 (10) ◽  
pp. 1840-1852 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Ribeiro ◽  
N. Kretschmer ◽  
J. Nascimento ◽  
A. Buxo ◽  
T. Rötting ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Alluvial Aquifers ◽  
Mann Kendall Test

scholarly journals Rainfall and runoff regime trends in mountain catchments (Case study area: the upper Hron River basin, Slovakia)

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 183-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Blahušiaková ◽  
Milada Matoušková
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Runoff Regime ◽  
Simple Mass ◽  
Hydroclimatic Variables

Abstract This paper presents an analysis of trends and causes of changes of selected hydroclimatic variables influencing the runoff regime in the upper Hron River basin (Slovakia). Different methods for identifying trends in data series are evaluated and include: simple mass curve analysis, linear regression, frequency analysis of flood events, use of the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration software, and the Mann-Kendall test. Analyses are performed for data from two periods (1931-2010 and 1961-2010). The changes in runoff are significant, especially in terms of lower QMax and 75 percentile values. This fact is also confirmed by the lower frequency and extremity of flood events. The 1980s are considered a turning point in the development of all hydroclimatic variables. The Mann-Kendall test shows a significant decrease in runoff in the winter period. The main causes of runoff decline are: the considerable increase in air temperature, the decrease in snow cover depth and changes in seasonal distribution of precipitation amounts.

scholarly journals Integrated Assessment of the Southern Bug River Basin Water Quality and Calculation of their Self-Cleaning Capacity

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
River Basin ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Statistical Parameter ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
The Self ◽  
Ecological Index ◽  
Mann Kendall Test

Purpose. To carry out the surface water quality assessment of the Southern Bug river basin and to investigate the ability of surface water to self-purify. Methods. Statistical calculations, system analysis. Results. The long-term dynamic of the integrated quality index values of the Southern Bug during 2000-2016 was heterogeneous, but the general trend indicated a slight increase due to the sanitary-ecological index and pollution index. The highest level of water pollution was observed in Khmelnytsky city and Alexandrovka settlement. To assess the self-purification capacity of surface waters, the hydrological zoning of the basin was taken. According to it three regions were identified by the types of intra-annual runoff distribution: Verkhnyobuzky, Serednyobuzky and Nizhnobuzsky. The obtained results of EC coefficient calculations for mineral nitrogen compounds show the inability of rivers to self-purify for Verkhnyobuzky and Serednyobuzky regions. Instead, the ability to self-purify is preserved for phosphorus compounds.Using the nonparametric Mann - Kendall test allowed to estimate the long - term trend of nutrients for the Nizhnobuzsky hydrological region. Trends N-NO3-, N NH4+and Р-РО43- are characterized by positive values of the statistical parameter, which means the increasing of these elements’ concentrations. Conclusions. Rivers of the Southern Bug basin are classified as "good, clean enough". The main ecological and hydrochemical problems of the river are pollution by nutrients and indicators of toxic action. The results of the self-purification criterion calculations indicate their inability (in the upper and middle parts of the basin) to self-purification. Using of the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test for determining changes in nutrient compounds shows an upward trend, that means increasing of their concentrations.

scholarly journals Changements historiques à long terme du débit écoulé dans le Haut bassin du fleuve Sénégal

2021 ◽  
Vol 384 ◽  
pp. 149-153
Author(s):  
Cheikh Faye
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Hydraulic Structures ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Senegal River ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Upstream Station ◽  
Senegal River Basin

Abstract. In this study, the flow trends on either side of the Manantali dam, in the upper Senegal River basin, were assessed. The assessment was carried out for the period 1970 to 2019 using the Sen slope and the Mann-Kendall test. The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to indicate the direction of the trends, while the Sen slope was used to assess the magnitude of the change. The results of the study showed that there was an upward trend in the flow of the Senegal River both annually and for every month upstream (Bafing-Makana station) and downstream (Bakel station) from the barrage. The strongest upward trend is noted in October on the upstream station with 4.12 m3/month and in September on the downstream station with 10.99 m3/month. In return, the weakest upward trend is observed in May on the upstream station with 0.07 m3/month and in August on the downstream station with 0.67 m3/month. The annual flow also showed a significant increase upstream (with a rate of 0.35 m3/year) and downstream (with a rate of 4.53 m3/year) with a confidence level of 99 %. The results of the study also showed that an increase in precipitation causes an increase in runoff, despite the construction of hydraulic structures.

scholarly journals Analysis of Runoff Variation Characteristics and Influencing Factors in the Wujiang River Basin in the Past 30 Years

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 372
Author(s):  
Wenxian Guo ◽  
Jianwen Hu ◽  
Hongxiang Wang
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Underlying Surface ◽  
Vegetation Coverage ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
Wujiang River ◽  
Variation Characteristics ◽  
Moderate Change

Changes in climate and the underlying surface are the main factors affecting runoff. Quantitative assessment of runoff characteristics, and determination of the climate and underlying surface contribution to changes in runoff are critical to water resources management and protection. Based on the runoff data from the Wulong Hydrological Station, combined with the Mann-Kendall test, Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA), Budyko hypothesis, and changes in climate and the underlying surface, this study comprehensively analyzed the runoff in the Wujiang River Basin (WRB). The results showed that: (1) The annual runoff of Wujiang River showed a downward trend, and an abrupt change occurred in 2005. (2) The overall hydrological change in WRB is 46%, reaching a moderate change. (3) The contribution rates of precipitation (P), potential evaporation (ET0), and underlying surface to runoff changes are 61.5%, 11.4%, and 26.9%, respectively. (4) After 2005, the WRB has become more arid, human activities have become more active, vegetation coverage has increased, and the built-up land has increased significantly.

Quantifying the magnitude of the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff decline in Mian River Basin, China

2010 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 783-791 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Fan ◽  
Fei Tian ◽  
Yonghui Yang ◽  
Shumin Han ◽  
Guoyu Qiu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
North China ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Driving Factor ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Soil And Water

Runoff in North China has been dramatically declining in recent decades. Although climate change and human activity have been recognized as the primary driving factors, the magnitude of impact of each of the above factors on runoff decline is still not entirely clear. In this study, Mian River Basin (a watershed that is heavily influenced by human activity) was used as a proxy to quantify the contributions of human and climate to runoff decline in North China. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to isolate the possible impacts of man and climate. SWAT simulations suggest that while climate change accounts for only 23.89% of total decline in mean annual runoff, human activity accounts for the larger 76.11% in the basin. The gap between the simulated and measured runoff has been widening since 1978, which can only be explained in terms of increasing human activity in the region. Furthermore, comparisons of similar annual precipitation in 3 dry-years and 3 wet-years representing hydrological processes in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s were used to isolate the magnitude of runoff decline under similar annual precipitations. The results clearly show that human activity, rather than climate, is the main driving factor of runoff decline in the basin.

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