scholarly journals The labor potential reproduction in depopulation period of 2019–2035 and the compensating role of migration

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
A. V. Topilin ◽  
O. D. Vorob’eva ◽  
A. S. Maksimova
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Forecast Period ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
Time Migration ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Labor Potential

Purpose of the research. To examine the dynamics of reproduction of labor potential and labor supply in Russia for the period up to 2035, depending on the impact factors of its reproduction: generation change (changes in the proportion of cohort, entering and leaving at the age composition of the labor potential), fertility and mortality rates, migration balance in the individual age cohorts.  Materials and methods. The concept of “replacement of generations” is introduced. The coefficient of replacement of generations is developed and its value for labor potential of Russia for the period up to 2035 is calculated. The influence of factors of natural population movement on the dynamics of labor potential is analyzed. The compensating role of the migration factor in the conditions of labor potential reduction is calculated. Russian regions were grouped according to the following criteria: the direction and intensity of changes in the working-age population in 2020–2035 and the proportion of young people aged 0–15 years.  Results.  – There will be the reduction and aging of labor potential during the second stage of depopulation due to demographic factors.  – The decline in the working-age population in the second wave of depopulation is expected to be smaller than in the first wave.  – In Russia there will be a decrease in the replacement of generations in the contingent of people of the working age.  – The growth of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the forecast period should not be expected, because until 2030 a gradual decrease in the number of women of reproductive age is expected.  – The deepest failure in the population of the working age will be in 2020–2025 accounting for 1.7 million people according to the average variant of the forecast.  – In the forecast period, the labor force in the most productive age of 25–39 years will decrease by 10.5 million people, and the employment rate will decrease from 65.5% to 63.5%.  – Regional features of the formation of demand and supply of labor force in Russia cause the allocation of six homogeneous groups of regions.  – In order to compensate for the losses, it is necessary to increase the migration gain in the average version of ROSSTAT forecast by 2–2.5 times.  Conclusion. To meet the needs of the economy in the labor force in the forecast period, it is necessary to solve two interrelated tasks: compensation for the reduction of labor potential and ensuring the quality of labor potential necessary for the introduction of new technologies and digitalization of the economy. The unfavorable situation with the formation of labor resources is exacerbated by regional imbalances in the distribution of labor potential and differences in its quality across the country. In the future, migration is once again the only source of replenishment of labor potential and replacement of generations, despite the risks of quality losses due to the emigration of highly qualified persons and young people. It is necessary to take measures to increase the compensatory role of migration in the next five – six years. At the same time, migration policy measures should be considered in close conjunction with other measures to stimulate fertility and reduce mortality, ensuring a positive impact on the components of the population growth.  

THE ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF WORKING-AGE POPULATION ON INDONESIAN LABOUR

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arif ◽  
Rosni Rosni ◽  
Zukya Rona Islami ◽  
M Taufik Rahmadi
Keyword(s):  
Labor Force ◽  
Regional Economy ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Interesting Object ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Object Of Study ◽  
The Impact

The population is a very interesting object of study. It is because human is the main actor in economic activity, especially in terms of the labor force. The population as a workforce is one aspect of the factors of production that will contribute to the economic growth in a particular region. If the working-age population and non-working age population is well facilitated, including the enactment of government policies regarding improving their productivity, the population growth would benefit the regional economy. Indonesia is a country with a large population so that it potentially has a large workforce for economic development. Therefore, this research aims to examine the effect of the working-age population on the labor force in Indonesia. To achieve this goal, this research uses a literature review method. The data used in this study is secondary data obtained from BPS and BAPPENAS publications, books, and research articles. The discussion in this paper describes the development of the productive age population, employment issues in Indonesia, and the effect of the working-age population on employment in Indonesia. in conclusion, the high number of populations of productive age (demographic bonus) does not immediately occur. The working-age population greatly influences the workforce in Indonesia. The researchers hope that this article can be a reference for similar research in the future.Keywords: analysis, population, working-age, employment, IndonesiaPermasalahan kependudukan sangat menarik untuk dikaji dan dianalisis. Hal ini dikarenakan penduduk khususnya manusia merupakan pelaku utama dalam kegiatan ekonomi termasuk dalam hal ketenagakerjaan. Penduduk sebagai tenaga kerja merupakan salah satu variabel dalam faktor produksi yang akan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi di suatu wilayah. Bila komposisi penduduk usia produktif dan yang belum produktif dipfasilitasi dengan baik, termasuk adanya kebijakan pemerintah yang menfokuskan pada kemajuan produktivitas mereka, maka pertumbuhan penduduk dengan komposisi yang demikian akan menguntungkan perekonomian daerah tersebut. Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara dengan jumlah penduduk yang banyak sehinnga berpotensi memiliki tenaga kerja yang banyak untuk kemajuan ekonomi. Oleh karena itu, penelitian iin bertujian untuk menalaah pengaruh jumlah penduduk usia produktif terhadap kondisi ketenagakerjaan di Indonesia.  Agar tujuan peneliti tercapai, peneliti menggunakan metode kajian pustaka. Data yang digunkan adalah data sekunder yang diperoleh dari publikasi BPS, BAPPENAS, buku serta artikel penelitian yang relevan dengan tema kajian penelitian. Pembahasan pada tulisan ini memaparkan mengenai perkembangan penduduk usia produktif, problematika ketenagakerjaan di Indonesia, serta pengaruh penduduk usia produktif terhadap ketenagakerjaan di Indonesia. Beberapa hal yang dapat disimpulkan yaitu, Jumlah penduduk usia produktif yang tinggi (bonus demografi) tidak langsung terjadi, Jumlah penduduk usia produktif sangat berpengaruh pada ketengakerjaan di Indonesia. Penulis berharap artikel ini dapat menjadi referensi bagi penelitian sejenis. Kata kunci: analisis, penduduk, usia produktif, ketenagakerjaan, Indonesia

Pension Reform in Russia: Assessing the Susceptibility of GDP Production to a Shift in the Number of the Working-Age Population

2019 ◽  
pp. 80-86
Author(s):  
T. P. Skufina ◽  
S. V. Baranov
Keyword(s):  
Pension Reform ◽  
Fixed Capital ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
The Impact

The presented study considers the susceptibility of gross domestic product (GDP) production to a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in retirement age starting with 2019.Aim. The study aims to examine the quantitative assessments of GDP production in Russia with allowance for the changes in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the actual retirement age.Tasks. The authors forecast the number of the working-age population with allowance for an increase in the retirement age; develop a model to establish a correlation between the number of the workingage population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production; quantify the impact of the shift in the number of the working-age population on GDP production in Russia. Methods. This study is based on the results of modeling and long-term forecasting.Results. An economic-mathematical model to establish a correlation between the number of the working-age population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production is presented. To specify the economic effects of a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the retirement age, Russia’s GDP production is forecasted for the “old” and “new” (increased retirement age) pension scheme. The forecast is provided for three variants of the number of the working-age population.Conclusions. It is found that with the “old” pension scheme with a lower retirement age GDP production across all three variants will decrease by 2036 compared to 2017. With regard to the “new” scheme that increases the retirement age, it is concluded that an increase in the retirement age is a factor that facilitates GDP production. However, its effect on economic growth will be insignificant.

scholarly journals Representations of Psychoactive Drugs’ Use in Mass Culture and Their Impact on Audiences

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 6000
Author(s):  
Marek A. Motyka ◽  
Ahmed Al-Imam
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Drug Use ◽  
Mass Culture ◽  
Film Music ◽  
Psychoactive Drugs ◽  
Frequent Contact ◽  
Preventive Actions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Staying At Home

Drug use has been increasing worldwide over recent decades. Apart from the determinants of drug initiation established in numerous studies, the authors wish to draw attention to other equally important factors, which may contribute to augmenting this phenomenon. The article aims to draw attention to the content of mass culture, especially representations of drug use in mass media, which may influence the liberalization of attitudes towards drugs and their use. The role of mass culture and its impact on the audience is discussed. It presents an overview of drug representations in the content of mass culture, e.g., in film, music, literature, and the occurrence of drug references in everyday products, e.g., food, clothes, and cosmetics. Attention was drawn to liberal attitudes of celebrities and their admissions to drug use, particularly to the impact of the presented positions on the attitudes of the audience, especially young people for whom musicians, actors, and celebrities are regarded as authorities. Indications for further preventive actions were also presented. Attention was drawn to the need to take appropriate action due to the time of the COVID-19 pandemic when many people staying at home (due to lockdown or quarantine) have the possibility of much more frequent contact with mass culture content, which may distort the image of drugs.

scholarly journals Navigating an Uncertain Labor Market in the UK: The Role of Structure and Agency in the Transition from School to Work

2020 ◽  
Vol 688 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-92
Author(s):  
Ingrid Schoon
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Young People ◽  
School To Work ◽  
Occupational Attainment ◽  
Employment Opportunities ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
Structure And Agency ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Career Options

This article reviews the evidence on young people in the UK making the transition from school to work in a changing socioeconomic climate. The review draws largely on evidence from national representative panels and follows the lives of different age cohorts. I show that there has been a trend toward increasingly uncertain and precarious employment opportunities for young people since the 1970s, as well as persisting inequalities in educational and occupational attainment. The joint role of social structure and human agency in shaping youth transitions is discussed. I argue that current UK policies have forgotten about half of the population of young people who do not go to university, by not providing viable pathways and leaving more and more young people excluded from good jobs and employment prospects. Recommendations are made for policies aimed at supporting the vulnerable and at provision of career options for those not engaged in higher education.

scholarly journals INNOPOLISES AND SCIENCE CITIES: A STRATEGY OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGH AND «HUMAN FACTOR»

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 93-97
Author(s):  
Alexey Osipov ◽  
Vyacheslav Savinykh ◽  
Natalya Makarenko
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Technological Breakthrough ◽  
Cultural Preferences ◽  
Inhibiting Factor ◽  
Success Of Science ◽  
Science And Education ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Science Cities

We consider the socio-humanitarian problems of the formation of innopolises and science cities in Russia in the XXI century, including the impact of socio-cultural preferences on the formation of these types of localizations. The key role of young scientists in achieving the success of science and education centers is stated. It is pointed out that the inhibiting factor here is the decline of work ethic and the realities of the labor market in the form of the insufficient prestige of a researcher in the professional preferences of young people.

scholarly journals The role of television in the constitution of contemporary readers

Comunicar ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 13 (25) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria-Luiza Oswald
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Cultural Studies ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Children And Young People ◽  
The World ◽  
Nestor Garcia Canclini ◽  
Latin American Cultural Studies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Estudios Culturales

This paper intends to show, based on the contributions of Latin American Cultural Studies, that the difficulty children and young people have with the organization of written texts, such as that found in books, is determined by the impact that the technology of images exercises over the ways in which they learn to read the world. An analysis of the first interviews with young people, conducted as part of an institutional project in progress, point to the role played by the language of television cartoons in their development as readers. El presente trabajo trae el análisis de las primeras entrevistas realizadas en el ámbito de una investigación institucional en curso interesada en investigar los sentidos/lecturas que niños y jóvenes realizan acerca de los productos de la cultura pop japonesa –mangás (historias en cuadritos), animes (dibujos animados) e videojuegos– basada en la orientación de los Estudios Culturales latinoamericanos (Jesús Martín-Barbero, Néstor García Canclini, Guillermo Orozco Gomes, entre otros autores). Ellos proponen que la recepción de los productos mediáticos sea analizada a partir de un desplazamiento teórico-metodológico que, reorientando el foco de los medios/mensaje para las mediaciones, permite identificar los receptores no como «dóciles audiencias», sino como productores activos de sentidos. Se pretende, con eso, intentar contribuir para la superación de la tensión entre la escuela y las culturas infantil y juvenil, tensión que tiene como uno de sus pilares el conflicto entre la cultura letrada y la cultura de la imagen. El estudio, que supone la opción por un abordaje cualitativo de carácter etnográfico, viene siendo realizado a través de entrevistas semi-estructuradas individuales con consumidores del trípode de la poderosa industria de entretenimiento nipónica, que se viene constituyendo como fenómeno mundial de comunicación de masa. Los discursos de los primeros entrevistados –cuatro jóvenes fanáticos de animes y mangas, cuya edad oscila entre 17 y 22 años– destacaron la influencia que el lenguaje de la TV ejerce sobre el extrañamiento que mantiene con el texto impreso tal como él se organiza en el libro. No obstante, la presencia en lo cotidiano de esos sujetos de un cúmulo de estímulos sonoros y visuales, no es raro depararnos con la existencia de una crisis de lectura que afecta niños y jóvenes, influenciando su desempeño en la escuela. Delante de los relatos, el grupo de investigación se formula algunas cuestiones: ¿la alusión a la crisis no sería, en el fondo, una incapacidad de las generaciones que fueron educadas y escolarizadas en los moldes de la cultura letrada?; entender que «el pretencioso gesto universal del libro» (W. Benjamin) ya no resuena entre las nuevas generaciones que ya nacieron bajo el impacto que la tecnología del sonido y de la imagen ejercen sobre la escritura? No sería, entonces, posible suponer que, si hay una crisis de la lectura, ¿es por las generaciones pasadas que está sendo vivenciada? Frente a esto, ¿no sería más adecuado, en vez de quedarnos repitiendo que existe una crisis de lectura que afecta la escolarización de niños y jóvenes y de permanecer buscando soluciones milagrosas para ese conflicto, asumir que estamos delante no de una crisis, sino de un contexto histórico del cual precisamos aproximarnos para no perder el tren de la historia? Esas fueron algunas de las preguntas que el examen de las cuatro primeras entrevistas con los jóvenes permitió sacar a luz de los fundamentos de los Estudios Culturales latinoamericanos, y es sobre ellas que ese texto se vuelca, no con la intención de responderlas, sino con el objetivo de constituirlas como un mapa que puede revelarnos caminos «para pasar de las respuestas que fracasaron a las preguntas que renuevan las ciencias sociales y las políticas libertadoras» (Néstor Canclini).

Games-Based Learning in the Classroom and How it can Work!

2009 ◽  
pp. 274-286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen Routledge
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Learning Styles ◽  
Digital Divide ◽  
Real World ◽  
Digital Games ◽  
Practical Guide ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Changing Role ◽  
Theoretical Overview

Based on real-world experiences using a variety of digital games, this chapter presents a guide for teachers on how to use games-based learning in the classroom. Beginning with a theoretical overview of the change in learning styles and the growing digital divide, the impact that games have had on young people will be discussed. The limitations faced and ways to overcome these to create effective pedagogical experiences when using games will follow. The second half of this chapter aims to provide a practical guide for teachers wishing to integrate games into their classrooms, beginning with an overview of the changing role of the teacher, moving onto preparation guidelines, before finally discussing assessment and practical implementations.

Labor in a Massachusetts Cotton Mill, 1853–60

1954 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Ginger
Keyword(s):  
New England ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Wage Differential ◽  
Labor Relations ◽  
Textile Workers ◽  
Current Consumption ◽  
Wage Earners ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Impact

Skilled textile workers migrated from Scotland to Massachusetts in the 1850's because of a large wage differential and low steerage rates for the transatlantic passage. For each one of 56 women weavers in the Lyman Mills, expenditures on current consumption took less than 75 per cent of income. But the circumstances were unusual, so this sample does not permit any conclusions about the role of wage-earners' savings in the accumulation of capital in New England. In this mill, two-thirds of the labor force in 1860 had been working there less than three years. The impact of this high degree of labor mobility on labor relations and on the technology of the industry is tentatively assessed.

scholarly journals Predictors of Creativity in Young People: Using Frequentist and Bayesian Approaches in Estimating the Importance of Individual and Contextual Factors

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Asquith ◽  
Xu Wang ◽  
Daniel S Quintana ◽  
Anna Abraham
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Divergent Thinking ◽  
Contextual Factors ◽  
Creative Potential ◽  
Bayesian Approaches ◽  
Bayesian Analyses ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
Creative Ideation ◽  
The Impact

The development of creativity in young children has been studied extensively, but relatively few studies have examined the period of adolescence and emerging adulthood in relation to creative potential. The present study employs a combination of frequentist and Bayesian analyses to evaluate the impact of individual factors (e.g., IQ) and contextual factors (e.g., pursuit of creative hobbies) on creative ideation in three cohorts of young people aged 14-20 years. Measures of divergent thinking, specifically the Alternate Uses Task (AUT) and the Overcoming Knowledge Constraints Task, were used to this end. Openness to aesthetic and imaginative experience was the strongest predictor of creative potential for the three AUT measures. Moreover, Bayesian hypothesis testing revealed that the best predictive model for AUT ideational fluency and AUT overall originality was one that included only Openness, whereas the best predictive model for AUT peak originality, or the propensity to generate highly original responses, included Openness, as well as IQ and Engagement in Creative Hobbies. No group differences in creative potential were found between the three age cohorts (aged 14-15, 16-17, and 18-20). The study not only confirms the importance of openness to aesthetic and imaginative experience as a predictor of creative potential in adolescents and young adults, but also indicates the necessity to consider the combined and differentiated impact of individual and contextual factors in different facets of creative ideation.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document