Quantitative Risk Assessment of Environmental Hazards Generated by a Tailings Embankment: case study Cabeço do Pião, Portugal

Probabilistic risk assessments are increasingly being considered the most appropriate framework for engineers to systematically base decisions on hazard mitigation issues. This paper aims to show the advantages of a quantitative risk assessment by application to a historical case study. The generalized integrated risk assessment framework has been applied retrospectively to a submarine landslide that occurred in 1996 near the village of Finneidfjord in northern Norway. Over 1 million cubic metres of predominantly quick clay was displaced. Even though it was triggered underwater on the embankment of the Sørfjord, the retrogressive nature of the slide resulted in it encroaching 100–150 m inland. The triggering mechanism is believed to have been the placement of fill, from a nearby tunnelling project, on the foreshore of the embankment. This paper is a retrospective quantitative evaluation of the risk to the neighbouring houses, the persons in those houses, and the persons in open spaces caused by the placement of increasing levels of embankment fill. A probabilistic approach, making use of second-moment modelling and first-order second-moment approximation is adopted. It aims to demonstrate the advantages of this type of risk assessment in understanding complex and integrated hazards, particularly those in populated environments.

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Domain-specific risk assessment using integrated simulation: A case study of an onshore wind project

Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering ◽

10.1139/cjce-2021-0099 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Emad Mohamed ◽

Nima Gerami Seresht ◽

Stephen Hague ◽

Adam Chehouri ◽

Simaan M. AbouRizk

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Wind Farm ◽

Critical Path ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Integrated Simulation ◽

Domain Specific ◽

Risk Assessment Models ◽

First Case ◽

Assessment Approach

Although many quantitative risk assessment models have been proposed in literature, their use in construction practice remain limited due to a lack of domain-specific models, tools, and application examples. This is especially true in wind farm construction, where the state-of-the-art integrated Monte Carlo simulation and critical path method (MCS-CPM) risk assessment approach has yet to be demonstrated. The present case study is the first reported application of the MCS-CPM method for risk assessment in wind farm construction and is the first case study to consider correlations between cost and schedule impacts of risk factors using copulas. MCS-CPM provided reasonable risk assessment results for a wind farm project, and its use in practice is recommended. Aimed at facilitating the practical application of quantitative risk assessment methods, this case study provides a much-needed analytical generalization of MCS-CPM, offering application examples, discussion of expected results, and recommendations to wind farm construction practitioners.

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Quantitative Risk Assessment of Population Affected by Tropical Cyclones through Joint Consideration of Extreme Precipitation and Strong Wind—A Case Study of Hainan Province

Earth s Future ◽

10.1029/2021ef002365 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Chenna Meng ◽

Wei Xu ◽

Yu Qiao ◽

Xinli Liao ◽

Lianjie Qin

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Hainan Province ◽

Strong Wind ◽

Joint Consideration

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Aggregated Risk Assessment and Survey for Risk Reduction in Oil Terminals

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su132112169 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (21) ◽

pp. 12169

Author(s):

Robertas Alzbutas ◽

Mindaugas Vaisnoras ◽

Inga Saruniene ◽

Ricardas Krikstolaitis ◽

Mindaugas Valincius ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Risk Reduction ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Study Results ◽

Risk Aggregation ◽

Risk Reduction Measures ◽

The Impact

One of the goals of any oil terminal is to make a business while avoiding hazardous events and harmful effects for both humans and the environment. This can be achieved by creating a safe working place as well as by performing safe and acceptable activities regarding the impact on surrounding objects, including residential and industrial areas. The aim of the hazard analysis of the oil terminal is to assess the risks related to hazardous events or phenomena and to evaluate whether the assessed risks are acceptable. The hazard analysis and assessment of risk are also used for risk reduction while examining and limiting hazardous scenarios that, for instance, involve the loss-of-containment of flammable or combustible material. In this paper, the authors aim to contribute to risk research by providing a comprehensive methodology of risk assessment for oil terminals with case study results and discussion on features of the methodology, risk aggregation, its applicability for risk reduction, and industrial interests. The performed study considered the “Klaipedos Nafta AB” (an operator of the Klaipeda Oil Terminal, Lithuania) case study regarding hazardous materials that might be released from various tanks, devices, and associated pipelines. The performed quantitative risk assessment has enabled the determination of the probability regarding whether releases would ignite and, for instance, cause explosion. In the case study, the estimate of probability, i.e., the frequency, and the possible consequences of the hazardous events were evaluated, and both mitigation and risk reduction measures were also considered.

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Chemical Impacts of Potential CO2 and Brine Leakage on Groundwater Quality with Quantitative Risk Assessment: A Case Study of the Farnsworth Unit

Energies ◽

10.3390/en13246574 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (24) ◽

pp. 6574

Author(s):

Ting Xiao ◽

Brian McPherson ◽

Richard Esser ◽

Wei Jia ◽

Zhenxue Dai ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Early Detection ◽

Groundwater Quality ◽

Oil Recovery ◽

Co2 Sequestration ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Monitoring Strategies ◽

Geologic Co2 Sequestration ◽

Brine Leakage

Potential leakage of reservoir fluids is considered a key risk factor for geologic CO2 sequestration (GCS), with concerns of their chemical impacts on the quality of overlying underground sources of drinking water (USDWs). Effective risk assessment provides useful information to guide GCS activities for protecting USDWs. In this study, we present a quantified risk assessment case study of an active commercial-scale CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) and sequestration field, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU). Specific objectives of this study include: (1) to quantify potential risks of CO2 and brine leakage to the overlying USDW quality with response surface methodology (RSM); and (2) to identify water chemistry indicators for early detection criteria. Results suggest that trace metals (e.g., arsenic and selenium) are less likely to become a risk due to their adsorption onto clay minerals; no-impact thresholds based on site monitoring data could be a preferable reference for early groundwater quality evaluation; and pH is suggested as an indicator for early detection of a leakage. This study may provide quantitative insight for monitoring strategies on GCS sites to enhance the safety of long-term CO2 sequestration.

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Quantitative risk assessment in a rockfall-prone area: the case study of the Crolles municipality (Massif de la Chartreuse, French Alps)

Géomorphologie relief processus environnement ◽

10.4000/geomorphologie.12778 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 25 (1) ◽

pp. 7-19 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Manon Farvacque ◽

Jérôme Lopez-Saez ◽

Christophe Corona ◽

David Toe ◽

Franck Bourrier ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

French Alps ◽

Prone Area

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Implementation of Quantitative Risk Assessment: Case Study

Volume 3: Materials and Joining; Risk and Reliability ◽

10.1115/ipc2014-33641 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

David Mangold ◽

W. Kent Muhlbauer ◽

Jim Ponder ◽

Tony Alfano

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Decision Making ◽

Risk Management ◽

The United States ◽

Management Program ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Management Decision ◽

Classical Statistics ◽

Wide Range

Risk management of pipelines is a complex challenge due to the dynamic environment of the real world coupled with a wide range of system types installed over many decades. Various methods of risk assessment are currently being used in industry, many of which utilize relative scoring. These assessments are often not designed for the new integrity management program (IMP) requirements and are under direct challenge by regulators. SemGroup had historically used relative risk assessment methodologies to help support risk management decision-making. While the formality offered by these early methods provided benefits, it was recognized that, in order to more effectively manage risk and better meet the United States IMP objectives, a more effective risk assessment would be needed. A rapid and inexpensive migration into a better risk assessment platform was sought. The platform needed to be applicable not only to pipeline miles, but also to station facilities and all related components. The risk results had to be readily understandable and scalable, capturing risks from ‘trap to trap’ in addition to risks accompanying each segment. The solution appeared in the form a quantitative risk assessment that was ‘physics based’ rather than the classical statistics based QRA. This paper will outline the steps involved in this transition process and show how quantitative risk assessment may be efficiently implemented to better guide integrity decision-making, illustrated with a case study from SemGroup.

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