scholarly journals ANALISIS SIMULTAN SEKTOR MONETER DI INDONESIA (PENDEKATAN PARSIAL MUNDELL-FLEMING)

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aula Ahmad Hafidh Saiful Fikri
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Rate Equation ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
National Income ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
The Interest Rate

Abstrak: Kebijakan moneter merupakan salah satu usaha pemerintah untuk mengendalikan keadaan ekonomi makro. Perubahan yang terjadi pada kebijakan moneter akan mempengaruhi variabel-variabel ekonomi yang lain. Berdasarkan hal tersebut, studi ini bertujuan untuk melakukan analisis secara simultan shocks kebijakan moneter dalam perekonomian terbuka terhadap variabel-variabel ekonomi dengan menggunakan data Indonesia periode 2000:1 - 2019:8 dengan menggunakan pendekatan secara parsial Teori Mundell-Fleming. Metode yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah Two-Stage Least Square (TSLS). Hasil yang diperoleh dalam studi ini menunjukkan bahwa (1) shock kebijakan moneter terhadap variabel-variabel ekonomi menunjukkan adanya suatu fenomena puzzle atau tidak sesuai teori dan (2) kontribusi BI rate yang paling besar dirasakan oleh variabel harga (inflasi). Penelitian ini memakai model IS-LM parsial dari sisi LM. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa ada hubungan simultan antara variabel endogen persamaan tingkat bunga dan inflasi. Dari model persamaan tingkat bunga semua variabel mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap tingkat bunga kecuali harga minyak dunia (OP). hubungan negatif ditunjukkan oleh permintaan uang (MD), pendapatan nasional (IPI) dan inflasi (INF). Sedangkan dalam persamaan inflasi, hanya variabel IPI yang tidak signifikan, hubungan negatif ditunjukkan oleh IPI dan aset luar negeri bersih (NFA).Abstract: Monetary policy is one of the government's efforts to control macroeconomic conditions. Changes in monetary policy will affect other economic variables. This study aims to simultaneously analyze monetary policy shocks in the open economy using Indonesian monthly data for the period 2000:1 - 2019:8 using a partial approach to the Mundell-Fleming Theory. The method used in this study is Two-Stage Least Square. The results obtained indicate that (1) the shock of monetary policy on economic variables indicates the phenomenon of puzzle or not according to theory and (2) contribution Bank Indonesia rate is the biggest to the price variable (inflation). This study uses a partial IS-LM model from the LM side. The results showed a simultaneous relationship between the endogenous variables of the interest rate equation and inflation. From the interest rate equation model, all variables significantly affect the interest rate, except for the world oil price; negative relationship is shown by money demand, national income, and inflation. Meanwhile, in the inflation equation, only the national income variable is insignificant; a negative relationship is shown by national income and net foreign assets.

Dampak Kebijakan Moneter Pada Output Di Negara-Negara ASEAN Tahun 1980-2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-70
Author(s):  
Nur Widiastuti
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
State Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
The Impact

The Impact of monetary Policy on Ouput is an ambiguous. The results of previous empirical studies indicate that the impact can be a positive or negative relationship. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of monetary policy on Output more detail. The variables to estimatate monetery poicy are used state and board interest rate andrate. This research is conducted by Ordinary Least Square or Instrumental Variabel, method for 5 countries ASEAN. The state data are estimated for the period of 1980 – 2014. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the impact of monetary policy on Output shown are varied.Keyword: Monetary Policy, Output, Panel Data, Fixed Effects Model

scholarly journals ANALISIS PERMINTAAN DAN PENAWARAN UANG DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Arwin Arwin ◽  
Said Muhammad ◽  
Raja Masbar
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
National Income ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Data Processing Method

This study aims to determine the determinants of the money demand and money supply function in Indonesia. To formulate the equation between money demand (Md) and money supply (Ms) using LM function by looking at the effect of real income and interest rate. The data in this study constitutes Indonesia's economic data from 1986 to 2015 drawn from secondary data sources such as Bank Indonesia (BI), Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), International Financial Statistics (IFS), International Monetary Funds (IMF) and World Bank . The Data Processing method used is to use the equations and completed with Two Stage Least Square. The results showed that the balance occurred at the national income level of 277559.05 billion Rupiah with an interest rate of 7.05%. Keywords: Demand and Supply of Money, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Inflation, and Exchange Rate. Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk megetahui determinan dari fungsi permintaan uang dan penawaran uang di Indonesia. Untuk merumuskan persamaan antara permintaan uang (Md) dengan penawaran uang (Ms) menggunakan fungsi LM dengan melihat pengaruh pendapatan riil dan tingkat suku bunga. Data dalam penelitian ini merupakan data perekonomian Indonesia dari tahun 1986 – 2015 yang diambilkan dari sumber data sekunder baik seperti Bank Indonesia(BI), Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Internasional Financial Statistics (IFS), International Monetary Funds ( IMF) dan World Bank. Metode Pengolahan datayang digunakan adalah menggunakan persamaan simultan dan diselesaikan dengan Two Stage Least Square. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa keseimbangan terjadi pada tingkat pendapatan nasional sebesar 277559.05 milyar Rupiah dengan tingkat bunga sebesar 7,05%. 

scholarly journals SISTEM MONETER DALAM PERSPEKTIF EKONOMI ISLAM

ALQALAM ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
ZAINI IBRAHIM
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Economic System ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Price ◽  
National Income ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
Goods Market ◽  
The Interest Rate

In many economic literatures, economy is divided into two sectors, real sector which covers seroice market and goods market, and monetary sector which consists of money market and equity market. In a part of economic system, monetary that runs in a country will affect the economic rate. Monetary economy can be applied in a polity, called monetary policy. In a conventional discussion, a monetary policy is run in order to reach the increase of national income, to stabilize market price, and to control the inflation rate. To get the goal of that macro-economy, the interest rate is used, in which it becomes the weakness of conventional monetary system. The use of interest rate, furthermore, has caused the economic crisis, indeed global financial crisis. In term of new economic system needs, Islamic monetary system riflers a solution to overcome financial crisis. The riffered system is asset based transaction, free of interest, avoidance of transactions containing speculation (maisir) and uncertainty (gharar). Moreover, it also uses stable curencies, i.e. dinar and dirham. Keyword: Monetary system, interest rate, fiat monry, dinar, dirham.

scholarly journals Determinan Jumlah Uang Beredar, Tingkat Bunga, dan Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

Al-Buhuts ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 45-64
Author(s):  
Adya Utami
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine the determinants of the money supply, the interest rate, and inflation on Indonesia's economic growth in the 2009-2018 period. This research uses descriptive method and is strengthened by the OLS (ordinary least square) method with secondary data. The data used is sourced from the Central Statistics Agency and Bank Indonesia. The results of this study indicate that the money supply and the interest rate have a negative effect but inflation has a positive effect on Indonesia's economic growth. The JUB variable is not significant with a probability value of 0.1326. The JUB regression coefficient value has a negative relationship to the economic growth variable with a coefficient of 0.9288. The interest rate variable entered in the above equation turns out to be negative and significant with a probability value of 0.0571. The value of the coefficient of the exchange rate is (0.4843). The independent variable inflation gives a negative and not significant result with a probability value of 0.1134. Inflation coefficient value is 0.1724. In the equation model that uses economic growth as the dependent variable above, the magnitude of the coefficient of determination (R Squared) is 0.573429. This shows that the ability of the independent variable in explaining the diversity of the independent variables is 57.34% while the remaining 42.66% is influenced by other variables not included in the model.

Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in Russia

2021 ◽  
pp. 77-102
Author(s):  
O. A. Demidova ◽  
E. E. Karnaukhova ◽  
D. A. Korshunov ◽  
A. A. Myasnikov ◽  
S. F. Seregina
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Industrial Structure ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Spatial Effects ◽  
Spatial Autoregressive ◽  
The Interest Rate

We analyze the heterogeneous influence that monetary policy has on the growth rates of real personal income in 79 Russian regions over the period from 2Q2015 to 4Q2019, taking into account some of the channels of monetary policy transmission mechanism and spatial effects. The analysis was performed on the basis of panel data and a spatial autoregressive model. Besides that, we have calculated individual direct effects of changes of the interest rate for each region. Our results confirm the existence of a negative relationship between changes in the interest rate and growth rates of real personal income. This relationship is heterogeneous for different regions. Among the significant factors affecting the heterogeneity of the influence of monetary policy are the industrial structure and concentration of small businesses in regional economies. We have also found significant positive spatial effects of neighboring regions on each other. Our results generally coincide with those received in analyses of the effects of monetary policy in other countries.

The “black box” of the interest rate channel of monetary policy

2020 ◽  
pp. 5-21
Author(s):  
S. R. Moiseev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
General Terms ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

In the economic literature authors believe that central banks manage long-term interest rates on loans through the short-term money market interest rate in order to maintain price stability and balanced economic growth. However, macroeconomic theory tells extremely sparingly about the interest rate channel of monetary policy. In general terms, it conducts changes through a term premium and expectations in the government securities market. In applied research, economists only observe the final reaction of lending rates to the non-financial sector. Economists traditionally believe that the interest rate channel requires a developed financial sector. In some cases, in particular, at zero rates or in a small open economy that depends on the exchange rate, the interest rate channel works poorly. However, its effectiveness can be maintained without developed financial markets. The answer is the pricing of banking loans.

scholarly journals Fluctuations in the Swiss Franc: What Has Changed Since the Euro's Introduction?

2002 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas M. Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Swiss Franc ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Shed Light

The monetary implications arising from EMU for Swiss monetary policy show up primarily in the exchange rate. As of yet, fluctuations in the Swiss franc against the euro have been surprisingly moderate. The Swiss franc has thus tracked the euro's decline against the US dollar without experiencing strong inflationary pressures and a convergence in the interest-rate differential: a paradoxical result for a small open economy. This paper examines critically whether the recent record reveals information about a change in SNB monetary policy. It also attempts to shed light on the SNB's ability to implement an independent monetary policy with the new landscape defined by EMU. Four hypotheses of euro tracking are considered.

scholarly journals ANALISIS INTERAKSI KEBIJAKAN FISKAL DAN MONETER TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 112-123
Author(s):  
Muhammad Akhyar ◽  
Sofyan Syahnur ◽  
Asmawati Asmawati
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
World Bank ◽  
National Income ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
The Government

 The Purpose of this research is to determine the balance of income and interest rate in both money market and goods market in improving economic performance shown through some macro economic indicators. The method used is simultaneous equation method and completed with Two Stage Least Square. The data in this study constitutes Indonesia's economic data from 1986 to 2015 drawn from secondary data sources such as Bank Indonesia (BI), Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), and World Bank . The results show that the balance occurs at the national income level of 211.243,69 billion Rupiah with an interest rate of 3.86% and the more dominant fiscal policy currently applied in the economy. This IS-LM model can help the government in making policy to predict what happens to outputs and the aggregate interest rate if the government decides to increase government spending and increase the money supply.  Keywords: Aggregate output, interest rate, fiscal policy, monetary policy, good market, money market, IS-LM.  ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui keseimbangan pendapatan dan tingkat bunga baik di pasar uang maupun pasar barang dalam meningkatkan kinerja perekonomian yang ditunjukkan melalui beberapa indikator makro ekonomi. Metode yang digunakan menggunakan persamaan simultan dan diselesaikan dengan Two Stage Least Square. Data dalam penelitian ini merupakan data perekonomian Indonesia dari tahun 1986 – 2015 yang diambilkan dari sumber data sekunder baik seperti Bank Indonesia(BI), Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), dan World Bank. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa keseimbangan terjadi pada tingkat pendapatan nasional sebesar Rp211.243,69  milyar dengan tingkat bunga sebesar 3.86% dan kebijakan fiskal lebih dominan saat ini diterapkan dalam perekonomian. Model IS-LM ini dapat membantu pemerintah dalam membuat kebijakan untuk memprediksikan yang terjadi pada output dan tingkat bunga agregat jika pemerintah memutuskan untuk meningkatkan pengeluaran pemerintah maupun meningkatkan jumlah uang beredar.

scholarly journals DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN MONETER PADA OUTPUT DI NEGARA-NEGARA ASENA TAHUN 1980-2014

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-70
Author(s):  
Nur Widiastuti
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The State ◽  
Least Square ◽  
State Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
The Impact

The Impact of monetary Policy on Ouput is an ambiguous. The results of previous empirical studies indicate that the impact can be a positive or negative relationship. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of monetary policy on Output more detail. The variables to estimatate monetery poicy are used state and board interest rate andrate. This research is conducted by Ordinary Least Square or Instrumental Variabel, method for 5 countries ASEAN. The state data are estimated for the period of 1980 – 2014. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the impact of monetary policy on Output shown are varied.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PASAR BARANG DAN PASAR UANG DI INDONESIA : PENDEKATAN KEBIJAKAN FISKAL DAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 121
Author(s):  
Siska Rahmi ◽  
Ali Anis ◽  
Dewi Zaini Putri
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Fiscal Multiplier ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Effective Policy ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Equilibrium Market ◽  
Research Show

This study aims to analyze the (1) multiplier of fiscal policy and monetary policy, (2) equilibrium market of goods and money market in Indonesia, (3) effective policy to stabilize Indonesian economy by using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The results of the research show that (1) a fiscal multiplier is 0.06 and a monetary multiplier is 1.17, (2) the equilibrium is at the interest rate of 1,81% and the GDP of Rp. 935.235,6 billion, and (3) the effective policy is monetary policy in stabilizing the economy.

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