Do Macro-Economic Variables Affect Foreign Trade of India? Panel Regression Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Manoj Kumar Sinha
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Foreign Trade Policy ◽  
Indian Government ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Regression Approach ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

After the crisis in 1991, the Indian government introduced some changes in its Policy on trade, foreign investment, tariffs, and taxes under the name of New Economic Reforms. The main focus of these reforms has been on liberalization, openness, and export promotion activity. The paper focuses on the impact of development variables on export from India. Developmental variables include infrastructure, human resource, openness, production & market, research & development, resources, and taxation. Each development variable consists of a set of related variables. The paper has used principal component analysis (PCA), composite index and panel regression model. These help to know impact of individual developmental variable on Indias export. The period of study is 1990 2013. The value of KMO is over 0.6 indicating the samples are adequate and the value of Bartletts test is less than 0.05 ensure suitability of PCA. The overall growth rate Indian foreign trade is 3 percent during last more than two decades. Main macro-economic variables are infrastructure, resources, and taxation. The government should strengthen and incorporate these macro-economic variables while making foreign trade policy (i.e. EXIM policy) policy under the umbrella of WTO.

scholarly journals Estimating Impact of Covid 19 Outbreaks on Regional Economic's Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Sambari Radianto ◽  
Mahjudin Mahjudin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Regional Economics ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Counter Measures ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Community Activities ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Government ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia officially declared the first case of the corona virus infection that caused Covid-19 in early March 2020. Since then, various counter measures have been taken by the government to reduce the impact of the Covid-19 outbreaks in various sectors. Restrictions on community activities affect business activities which led to economics declination. Almost all sectors are affected. This study aims to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 outbreaks on the regional economics development.  This research using composite index to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 outbreaks  on the regional economic develompment and this was carried out by building an index composite showing the severity of health on one hand and economic performance on the other. This research shows, 34 provinces in Indonesia can be classified into four quadrants: 1) health improving and the economy is improving, 2) health is improving and the economy is deteriorating, 3) health worsening and the economy is improving, and 4) health is deteriorating and the economy is deteriorating. This study aprovide suggestions in order to be more accurate in identifying problems and finding precise solutions, the local government should collect data and research on economic aspects in a fast and precise way, namely 1) the level of the COVID-19 outbreak in the province, 2 ) risk factors for natural disasters, 3), factors characteristic of economic problems, 4) fiscal burden factors.

Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Development – A Developing Countries’ Study

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. V. Bhanumurthy ◽  
Manoj Kumar Sinha
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Outward Fdi ◽  
Composite Indices ◽  
Regression Approach ◽  
Socio Economic Variables ◽  
The Impact

Outward FDI is considered as a developed countries phenomenon. However FDI outflows from developing countries particularly Asian countries such as China and India have been growing over the past few decades. The paper focuses on outward FDI from developing countries in terms of outflows and outward stock. The paper studies the impact of socio-economic variables such as infrastructure, human capital, labour, market, trade openness, resources etc. on FDI outflows from developing countries. With the help of Principal Component Analysis, we construct a set of six composite indices, namely, human resource, infrastructure, labour, market, trade openness and resource, as determinants of OFDI. We use a Panel Regression approach both in terms of OFDI stock and flow, for the period 1990-2009. Outward FDI flows from developing countries do not show a significant pattern. FDI outward stock from developing countries represents stable patterns. It shows that steadily this is growing at 4.4 percent per annum, although the initial level is low. Top ten countries show a significant growth rate of 8 percent per annum, in the case of outward stock. Infrastructure is the only single variable whose elasticity is slightly over one in the case of top ten countries and is highly significant. Therefore, the FDI outflow is going from those countries amongst developing countries that have a significant infrastructure base.

scholarly journals Tourism In Belize

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (267) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian Chow
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Master Plan ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Double Digit ◽  
Economic Well Being

Belize’s tourism sector has witnessed impressive growth in recent years with overnight tourist arrivals registering double digit annual growth rates since 2016. To guide the development of the tourism sector from 2012 to 2030, the government endorsed a National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan in 2011, setting various initiatives and targets for the immediate and medium terms. Using a panel regression analysis on twelve Caribbean countries, this paper finds that accelerating structural reforms, fortifying governance frameworks, reducing crime, and mitigating the impact of natural disasters will help sustain tourism growth in Belize and contribute to economic well-being. This is in addition to tackling infrastructure bottlenecks and mitigating concerns relating to the “shared economy”.

scholarly journals FOREIGN TRADE REGULATION IN THE ECONOMY OF SMALL AND BIG COUNTRIES

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (127) ◽  
pp. 128-137
Author(s):  
O. Chugaiev
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Foreign Trade Policy ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Trade Regulation ◽  
Small Countries ◽  
The Government

Size of economy is a factor of international trade regulation. We systematize the effects described in existing research works. Size of economy influences export and import priorities of foreign trade policy, efficiency of tariff regulation or tariff liberalization, sophistication of customs procedures, indirect tax rates for imports, prevalence of subsidies and trade remedies, importance of foreign trade taxes for the government revenues, opportunities and stimuli for trade disputes and wars. It is more difficult for small countries to carry out import substitution policy. In small countries tariff regulation is less efficient, considering the absence of the terms of trade effect and market competition deterioration. But under larger trade openness customs tariffs are more important for the state budget of small countries. Non-tariff regulation is more sophisticated in large countries. The balance of economic stimuli and opportunities in trade wars and disputes is not favorable for middle-sized economies. We extrapolate the abovementioned effects to Ukraine as a middle-sized economy. This allows us to provide recommendations for its foreign trade policy: differentiated trade liberalization, dependence of the optimal foreign trade taxation level on trade openness and trade balance, collective trade sanctions.

scholarly journals TRADE POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA UNDER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-59
Author(s):  
Viktoriya Mashkara-Choknadiy ◽  
Yuriy Mayboroda
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Social Life ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Foreign Trade Policy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

The pandemic of COVID-19 has influenced all sectors of social life, including the global economy and trade relations. The year of 2020 was marked with significant changes in internal and foreign economic policy of almost all nations. The purpose of the paper is to study the measures taken by the EU and the USA as the world's leading economies to regulate their foreign trade in the global crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The tasks of the study are to show the influence of the crisis on changes of global trade policy in front of the threat to national security. Methodology. The study is based on the results of statistical analysis of data provided the WTO and the UNCTAD. The authors show an analytical assessment of the foreign trade indicators of the EU and the USA. Methods of comparison and generalization were used to formulate conclusions on regulatory trends in foreign trade of the US and the EU. Results allowed identifying specific features and changes in the regulation of foreign trade of the EU and the US, assessing the impact of the pandemic on their foreign trade. It was found that both mentioned players of the world economy have actively introduced both deterrent and liberalization measures during 2020, which were aimed at providing the domestic market with scarce COVID-related goods. The study shows the transition from export restricting to import liberalizing measures in foreign trade policies from the start of pandemic to the late 2020. Practical implications. Understanding and predicting the possible actions of partners (the US and the EU in this case) in the field of foreign trade regulation is an important practical aspect, which has to be taken into account when developing Ukraine's foreign trade policy. Value/originality. The study of foreign trade policy of the world's leading countries allows us to understand the behavior of governments of the countries that are largely dependent on participation in international trade in their development, to draw conclusions about the most common instruments of foreign trade policy in the time of humanitarian and economic crises.

scholarly journals Institutions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: The Effect of Investment Climate Quality

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (04) ◽  
pp. 1706-1730
Author(s):  
Nyemb Pagbe Rémi Degourmond
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Private Property ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Composite Indices ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

This paper assesses the impact of investment climate quality on economic growth for a sample of 21 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), over the period 1996-2014. The investment climate is measured simultaneously by individual components and composite indices, in order to capture both its global and specific effects, with a view to possibly identifying the most determining factors in the economic growth of SSA countries. In addition, in order to verify the robustness of our results, two composite indices of investment climate were constructed using the Principal Component Analysis method, with variables from two main databases (the World Governance Indicators database of World Bank and the International Country Risk Guide database).By using fixed and random effects models based on Hausman test results, we generally find that investment climate is a major determinant of economic growth in the countries of the SSA of the study sample. This result is valid regardless of the composite index or the individual component considered. Fight against corruption, protection of private property rights, efficiency of government, the quality of bureaucracy and regulation appear to be the most decisive components in accelerating economic growth for the sample of country considered.

scholarly journals Determinants of High-tech Export in CEE and CIS Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 486-501
Author(s):  
Igor M. Drapkin ◽  
Anna A. Gainetdinova ◽  
Aksanat Zh. Panzabekova
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Direct Foreign Investment ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Export Activity ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
Cis Countries ◽  
The Impact

Any government strives to stimulate export activity in high-tech sectors of its economy. Surprisingly, there are few empirical papers on the determinants of high-tech export to date. This study analyses the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) due to the differences they experienced in the transition period. To this end, we used the Balassa index, which is based on the concept of revealed comparative advantages. The research examines 73 groups of products from the automotive, chemical, mechanical engineering, electronics and electrical engineering industries in 27 countries from 1995 to 2018. Principal component analysis helped generate an indicator of comparative advantage of hightech industries for each country in each year. It is revealed that CEE countries, as well as the Baltic countries, have achieved significant success in the development of high-tech sectors of the economy, while the CIS countries have shown practically no progress in this direction. The article tests hypotheses on the impact of resources, foreign trade, macroeconomy and innovation on export activity in the country. The following factors stimulate the export growth in high-tech industries of the studied countries: level of wages and resource prices, openness of the economy to foreign trade; tax rate; unemployment rate; quality of human capital. We did not find empirical evidence of the positive impact of inflation, inflows of direct foreign investment, and the level of research and development (R&D) costs on the volume of high-tech export of the examined economies.

Global Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Development: Panel Regression Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. V. Bhanumurthy ◽  
Manoj Kumar Sinha
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Outward Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Regression Approach

Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) is in the nature of international relocation of production. OFDI acts as a complementary input in the host country and hence aims at rational allocation of global resources. The pattern of economic development on a multilateral scale would, thus, determine the pattern of OFDI. We consider the effect of economic development on OFDI originated from developing countries, with the help of a set of socio-economic variables. With the help of Principal Component Analysis we construct a set of six composite indices, namely, human resource, infrastructure, labour, market, trade openness and resource, as determinants of OFDI. We use a panel regression approach both in terms of OFDI stock and flow. The period of study is 1990-2009. Empirical results indicate that developing countries outflow has not been growing significantly. The annual growth rate of global FDI outflows is 3.2 percent. FDI outflow is mainly from developed countries. Resource is most important determinant because it has elasticity greater than one. Resource and market variables indicate that in long run FDI focused on resource seeking and market-seeking.

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