scholarly journals Dynamics and Development of the COVID-19 Epidemic in the United States: A Compartmental Model Enhanced With Deep Learning Techniques

10.2196/21173 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. e21173
Author(s):  
Qi Deng
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Compartmental Models ◽  
Transmission Characteristics ◽  
Transmission Parameters ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Stochastic Parameters ◽  
The Us ◽  
Further Development

Background Compartmental models dominate epidemic modeling. Transmission parameters between compartments are typically estimated through stochastic parameterization processes that depends on detailed statistics of transmission characteristics, which are economically and resource-wise expensive to collect. Objective We aim to apply deep learning techniques as a lower data dependency alternative to estimate transmission parameters of a customized compartmental model, for the purpose of simulating the dynamics of the US coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic and projecting its further development. Methods We constructed a compartmental model and developed a multistep deep learning methodology to estimate the model’s transmission parameters. We then fed the estimated transmission parameters to the model to predict development of the US COVID-19 epidemic for 35 and 42 days. Epidemics are considered suppressed when the basic reproduction number (R0) is less than 1. Results The deep learning–enhanced compartmental model predicts that R0 will fall to <1 around August 17-19, 2020, at which point the epidemic will effectively start to die out, and that the US “infected” population will peak around August 16-18, 2020, at 3,228,574 to 3,308,911 individual cases. The model also predicted that the number of accumulative confirmed cases will cross the 5 million mark around August 7, 2020. Conclusions Current compartmental models require stochastic parameterization to estimate the transmission parameters. These models’ effectiveness depends upon detailed statistics on transmission characteristics. As an alternative, deep learning techniques are effective in estimating these stochastic parameters with greatly reduced dependency on data particularity.

scholarly journals Dynamics and Development of the COVID-19 Epidemic in the United States: A Compartmental Model Enhanced With Deep Learning Techniques (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Deng
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Compartmental Models ◽  
Transmission Characteristics ◽  
Transmission Parameters ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Stochastic Parameters ◽  
The Us ◽  
Further Development

BACKGROUND Compartmental models dominate epidemic modeling. Transmission parameters between compartments are typically estimated through stochastic parameterization processes that depends on detailed statistics of transmission characteristics, which are economically and resource-wise expensive to collect. OBJECTIVE We aim to apply deep learning techniques as a lower data dependency alternative to estimate transmission parameters of a customized compartmental model, for the purpose of simulating the dynamics of the US coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic and projecting its further development. METHODS We constructed a compartmental model and developed a multistep deep learning methodology to estimate the model’s transmission parameters. We then fed the estimated transmission parameters to the model to predict development of the US COVID-19 epidemic for 35 and 42 days. Epidemics are considered suppressed when the basic reproduction number (<i>R<sub>0</sub></i>) is less than 1. RESULTS The deep learning–enhanced compartmental model predicts that <i>R<sub>0</sub></i> will fall to &lt;1 around August 17-19, 2020, at which point the epidemic will effectively start to die out, and that the US “infected” population will peak around August 16-18, 2020, at 3,228,574 to 3,308,911 individual cases. The model also predicted that the number of accumulative confirmed cases will cross the 5 million mark around August 7, 2020. CONCLUSIONS Current compartmental models require stochastic parameterization to estimate the transmission parameters. These models’ effectiveness depends upon detailed statistics on transmission characteristics. As an alternative, deep learning techniques are effective in estimating these stochastic parameters with greatly reduced dependency on data particularity.

scholarly journals Dynamics and Development of the COVID-19 Epidemics in the US – a Compartmental Model with Deep Learning Enhancement

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Deng
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Compartmental Models ◽  
Transmission Characteristics ◽  
Learning Enhancement ◽  
Transmission Parameters ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Stochastic Parameters ◽  
The Us ◽  
Further Development

AbstractBackgroundCompartmental models dominate epidemic modeling. Estimations of transmission parameters between compartments are typically done through stochastic parameterization processes that depend upon detailed statistics on transmission characteristics, which are economically and resource-wide expensive to collect. We apply deep learning techniques as a lower data dependency alternative to estimate transmission parameters of a customized compartmental model, for the purposes of simulating the dynamics of the US COVID-19 epidemics and projecting its further development.MethodsWe construct a compartmental model. We develop a multistep deep learning methodology to estimate the model’s transmission parameters. We then feed the estimated transmission parameters to the model to predict the development of the US COVID-19 epidemics for 35 and 42 days. Epidemics are considered suppressed when the basic reproduction number (R0) becomes less than one.ResultsThe deep learning-enhanced compartmental model predicts that R0 will become less than one around June 19 to July 3, 2020, at which point the epidemics will effectively start to die out, and that the US “Infected” population will peak round June 18 to July 2, 2020 between 1·34 million and 1·41 million individual cases. The models also predict that the number of accumulative confirmed cases will cross the 2 million mark around June 10 to 11, 2020.ConclusionsCurrent compartmental models require stochastic parameterization to estimate the transmission parameters. These models’ effectiveness depends upon detailed statistics on transmission characteristics. As an alternative, deep learning techniques are effective in estimating these stochastic parameters with greatly reduced dependency on data particularity.

scholarly journals MANDATORY DEATH PENALTY IN THE GLOBALIZED WORLD

2016 ◽  
pp. 0-0
Author(s):  
Ирина Нагорная ◽  
Irina Nagornaya
Keyword(s):  
Death Penalty ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Supreme Court ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Points Of View ◽  
The Government ◽  
Globalized World ◽  
Further Development

The subject of this research is the death penalty as a mandatory punishment for the most serious crimes in the United States, Asia and the Caribbean and corresponding constitutional problems. The author analyses foreign courts’ judgments and foreign researchers’ points of view. The author considers the influence of the jurisprudence of the US Supreme Court on the countries with similar legal systems, the importance of legal thought in other countries for further development of law-enforcement practice in a particular region and the globalized world. The author analyzes inconsistent position of Singapore, as well as the indecisiveness of the government of Malaysia, because until recently these two countries were fervent supporters of the mandatory death penalty in the Commonwealth. The author supports the global trend towards the abolition of the mandatory death penalty and the fact that the “Asian values” are not an insurmountable barrier to achieve this goal.

Development of the Medical Interpreting Profession in the US

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Holly M. Mikkelson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Role Of Government ◽  
The Us ◽  
Medical Interpreters ◽  
Medical Interpreting ◽  
Further Development

This chapter traces the development of the medical interpreting profession in the United States as a case study. It begins with the conception of interpreters as volunteer helpers or dual-role medical professionals who happened to have some knowledge of languages other than English. Then it examines the emergence of training programs for medical interpreters, incipient efforts to impose standards by means of certification tests, the role of government in providing language access in health care, and the beginning of a labor market for paid medical interpreters. The chapter concludes with a description of the current situation of professional medical interpreting in the United States, in terms of training, certification and the labor market, and makes recommendations for further development.

The Significance of Shale Gas Development in China

2012 ◽  
Vol 616-618 ◽  
pp. 767-769
Author(s):  
Jian Guo Wang ◽  
Hai Jie Zhang ◽  
Cui Cui Liu ◽  
Li Xia Lou
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Shale Gas ◽  
Technology Development ◽  
The United States ◽  
Petroleum Engineering ◽  
Commercial Development ◽  
Engineering Technology ◽  
Economic Significance ◽  
The Us ◽  
Further Development

China is facing a severe situation of energy resources. High oil dependency is seriously threatening our economy’s fast and stable development. The US has successfully achieved the commercial development of shale gas, which has decreased its oil dependency, and also contributed to its natural gas geology and petroleum engineering technology development. Both Chinese and U.S. geological experts predict that China has similar quantities of shale gas reserves as founded in the United States. This paper aims to clarify that producing shale gas resources has economic significance of energy security and environment protection, and scientific significance of promoting the further development of natural gas geology and petroleum engineering subjects.

scholarly journals The Population-Level Impacts of Excluding Norovirus-Infected Food Workers From the Workplace: A Mathematical Modeling Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 188 (1) ◽  
pp. 177-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen Yang ◽  
Molly Steele ◽  
Ben Lopman ◽  
Juan S Leon ◽  
Aron J Hall
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Population Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foodborne Disease ◽  
Current Recommendation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Food Workers

Abstract Norovirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis and foodborne disease in the United States. The Food and Drug Administration recommends that food workers infected with norovirus be excluded from the workplace while symptomatic and for 48 hours after their symptoms subside. Compliance with this recommendation is not ideal, and the population-level impacts of changes in food-worker compliance have yet to be quantified. We aimed to assess the population impacts of varying degrees of compliance with the current recommendation through the use of a compartmental model. We modeled the number and proportion of symptomatic norovirus cases averted annually in the US population (using data from 1983–2014) in specific age groups (children aged <5 years, children aged 5–17 years, adults aged 18–64 years, and adults aged ≥65 years) under various scenarios of food-worker exclusion (i.e., proportion compliant and days of postsymptomatic exclusion) in comparison with a referent scenario which assumed that 66.6¯% of norovirus-symptomatic food workers and 0% of postsymptomatic food workers were excluded from work. Overall, we estimated that 6.0 million cases of norovirus have already been avoided annually under the referent scenario and that 6.7 million (28%) more cases might be avoided through 100% compliance with the current recommendations. Substantial population-level benefits were predicted from improved compliance in exclusion of norovirus-infected food workers from the workplace—benefits that may be realized through policies or programs incentivizing self-exclusion.

scholarly journals USA and Russia: 210 Years of Diplomatic Relations and International Communication

2017 ◽  
pp. 8-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Р. Райнхардт ◽  
R. Raynhardt
Keyword(s):  
Historical Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Diplomatic Relations ◽  
Cross Cultural Communication ◽  
The Us ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Further Development

The article is dedicated to the 210th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States of America and Russia and casts light upon their genesis and development. It provides an acute insight into the key issues of US-Russian agenda within a time span of more than 200 years. Along with giving a holistic picture of the subject, the author focuses on specific cases crucial for understanding the current geopolitical juncture shaped by the interaction of the two nations. With an emphasis on differences in political culture, he outlines the important role of cross-cultural communication within the framework of the respective cases. The findings derived from the historical analysis give grounds for a certain degree of optimism in terms of further development of the relationship between the US and Russia.

scholarly journals Homophily in risk and behavior complicate understanding the COVID-19 epidemic curve

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina H Fefferman ◽  
Matthew J Silk ◽  
Dana K Pasquale ◽  
James Moody
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
The United States ◽  
Disease Dynamics ◽  
Exposure Risk ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
The Us ◽  
Exposure Risks ◽  
And Behavior

New COVID-19 diagnoses have dropped faster than expected in the United States. Interpretations of the decrease have focused on changing factors (e.g. mask-wearing, vaccines, etc.), but predictive models largely ignore heterogeneity in behaviorally-driven exposure risks among distinct groups. We present a simplified compartmental model with differential mixing in two behaviorally distinct groups. We show how homophily in behavior, risk, and exposure can lead to early peaks and rapid declines that critically do not signal the end of the outbreak. Instead, higher exposure risk groups may more rapidly exhaust available susceptibles while the lower risk group are still in a (slower) growth phase of their outbreak curve. This simplified model demonstrates that complex incidence curves, such as those currently seen in the US, can be generated without changes to fundamental drivers of disease dynamics. Correct interpretation of incidence curves will be critical for policy decisions to effectively manage the pandemic.

scholarly journals CONCEPTUAL PROVISION OF US GLOBAL LEADERSHIP POLICY OF POST-BIPOLAR PERIOD

2017 ◽  
pp. 44-51
Author(s):  
N. Litvinenko ◽  
N. Pogorila
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bill Clinton ◽  
World Politics ◽  
Global Leadership ◽  
Conceptual Level ◽  
The Us ◽  
Foreign Policies ◽  
Leadership Policy ◽  
Further Development

Article deals with conceptual and theoretical grounds for US global leadership policy in the post-bipolar period. In this context, the strategy of US global leadership during the presidency of Bill Clinton is thoroughly researched. On the conceptual level the existing strategy of US global leadership under President George. W. Bush is being reviewed. The liberal realistic concept of US leadership under presidency of B. Obama found further development. The basic differences in foreign policies between Republican and Democratic US administration post-bipolar era were revealed. It is reported that the US would continue to play a crucial role in world politics and provide conceptual and applied political and security strategies of the United States, which affect foreign policy and constitute an integral part of US geopolitical interests.

scholarly journals Thorny Evolution Path of the US Society: Slavery and the Abolitionist Movement

2020 ◽  
pp. 101-113
Author(s):  
Marharyta Lymar
Keyword(s):  
Early Period ◽  
The United States ◽  
Abolitionist Movement ◽  
Evolution Path ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Status ◽  
American Society ◽  
Further Development ◽  
British Colonies ◽  
The U.S

The article focuses on studying the evolution of the U.S. society and exploring phenomena of racism and slavery. Given the fact that the modern American society is considered as the field of numerous opportunities for every person, it is worth to track its transformation and to identify the key milestones or turning points of the U.S. history in this regard. The author identifies racism as one of the slavery’s reasons, condemning the both phenomena and exploring the ways of resisting them among Americans in the first years of the United States of America as a new independent and single state. Thus, the following tasks of the research are defined: to determine the concepts of racism and slavery; to find out the origins and background of slavery in the early period of the U.S. establishing; to explore the status of African Americans in the U.S. society as well as dual standards of equality between Americans; to track the evolution of American society’s views on slavery and discrimination; and to observe the consequences of the Abolitionist movement for the further development of the U.S. society. It is stated that the black Africans appeared in the British colonies of North America because of inevitable labor problem, faced by the first settlers, forced to seek cheap or free labor hands. Primary, the Africans were brought to America as indentured staff. In 1640–1641, in Massachusetts, some types of slavery became allowed, and the other states followed such a suit. Slaves were brought from the slave factories established along the west coast of Africa from Cape Verde to the equator. The enslaved Africans did not put up with fate and protested in various ways, supported by the sympathetic Whites (philanthropists, Quakers, pastors, statesmen). Regular uprisings, protests, and strikes, the spread of agitation literature greatly contributed to protection of slaves. Thus, the Abolitionist movement was founded. Thanks to it, the slave owners were resisted, the proper laws were adopted and slavery was eventually abolished. However, the legal abolition did not totally eradicate racism from the subconscious of Americans, which is now echoed.

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