To Predict Epidemic Situation: Application of COVID-19 Pneumonia Diffusion Data (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenguo Wu
Keyword(s):  
Current Situation ◽  
Current Data ◽  
World Health ◽  
Director General ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Current Outbreak ◽  
Epidemic Development ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

BACKGROUND In December 2019, a number of cases of pneumonia with unknown causes were found in some hospitals in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. On 11 March 2020, the director-general of the world health organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, announced that based on the assessment, WHO believes that the current outbreak of COVID-19 can be called a global pandemic. By early April 2020, there were more than one million confirmed cases worldwide. OBJECTIVE To evaluate novel coronavirus pneumonia cases by establishing the mathematical model of the number of confirmed cases daily, and to assess the current situation and development of the epidemic situation, so as to provide a digital basis for decision-making. METHODS The number of newly confirmed covid-19 cases per day was taken as the research object, and the seven-day average value (M) and the sequential value (R) of M were calculated to study the occurrence and development of covid-19 epidemic through the analysis of charts and data. RESULTS M reflected the current situation of epidemic development; R reflected the current level of infection and the trend of epidemic development. CONCLUSIONS The current data can be used to evaluate the number of people who have been infected, and when R < 1, the peak of epidemic can be predicted.

scholarly journals Application of COVID-19 pneumonia diffusion data to predict epidemic situation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wu zhenguo
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Current Data ◽  
World Health ◽  
Director General ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Epidemic Development ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

AbstractObjectiveTo evaluate novel coronavirus pneumonia cases by establishing the mathematical model of the number of confirmed cases daily, and to assess the current situation and development of the epidemic situation, so as to provide a digital basis for decision-making.MethodsThe number of newly confirmed covid-19 cases per day was taken as the research object, and the seven-day average value (M) and the sequential value (R) of M were calculated to study the occurrence and development of covid-19 epidemic through the analysis of charts and data.ResultsM reflected the current situation of epidemic development; R reflected the current level of infection and the trend of epidemic development.ConclusionThe current data can be used to evaluate the number of people who have been infected, and when R < 1, the peak of epidemic can be predicted.PrefaceIn December 2019, a number of cases of pneumonia with unknown causes were found in some hospitals in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. On 11 March 2020, the director-general of the world health organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, announced that based on the assessment, WHO believes that the current outbreak of COVID-19 can be called a global pandemic. By early April 2020, there were more than one million confirmed cases worldwide.COVID-19 has developed from sporadic cases to pandemic in a short period of 3 months. The analysis and research of its infectious data will help to prevent and control the next stage of epidemic prevention and other infectious diseases in the future.In this paper, COVID-19 rounded average of seven days (M), and M’s ring ratio (R) are used to predict the current potential patients’ data, and the relative state of epidemic prevention and control is judged through the graphic features and characteristic data, so as to provide evidence for the prevention and control decisions.

scholarly journals Dilemma in the foreign lands during COVID-19: An outlook of expat health care professionals with a take on a social perspective

Work ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 779-782
Author(s):  
Namdeo Prabhu ◽  
Rakhi Issrani
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Health Care Professionals ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
World Health ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection a global pandemic due to the fast transmission of this disease worldwide. To prevent and slow the transmission of this contagious illness, the public health officials of many affected countries scrambled to introduce measures aimed at controlling its spread. As a result, unprecedented interventions/measures, including strict contact tracing, quarantine of entire towns/cities, closing of borders and travel restrictions, have been implemented by most of the affected countries including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this paper is to share health care professionals’ perspectives who are experiencing COVID19 firsthand in a foreign land. In addition, the role of the Saudi governance to combat the current situation is also discussed. DISCUSSION: Personal and previous experiences as related to Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) by the authors has been compared to the current situation and how it affected our thoughts and management. A review of the evidence-based literature was conducted to investigate the demographics of the region; and to understand the awareness of the various tools that are available and how they were utilized in the present situation of pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Saudi Arabia has been challenged during the pandemic as are other countries.

scholarly journals ARIMA modelling of predicting COVID-19 infections

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
W.Regis Anne ◽  
S.Carolin Jeeva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
World Health ◽  
Director General ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Short Term Prediction

AbstractThe World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on March 11, 2020 declared the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak a global pandemic [4] the reason being the number of cases outside China increased 13-fold and the number of countries with cases increased threefold. In this paper a time series model to predict short-term prediction of the transmission of the exponentially growing COVID-19 time series is modelled and studied. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model prediction is performed on the number of cumulative cases over a time period and is validated over Akaike information criterion (AIC) statistics.

scholarly journals Progression and Trends in Virus from Influenza A to COVID-19: An Overview of Recent Studies

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1145
Author(s):  
Hakimeh Baghaei Daemi ◽  
Muhammad Fakhar-e-Alam Kulyar ◽  
Xinlin He ◽  
Chengfei Li ◽  
Morteza Karimpour ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Influenza A ◽  
H1n1 Virus ◽  
World Health ◽  
H1n1 Pandemic ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
First Case ◽  
Influenza A H1n1 ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Influenza is a highly known contagious viral infection that has been responsible for the death of many people in history with pandemics. These pandemics have been occurring every 10 to 30 years in the last century. The most recent global pandemic prior to COVID-19 was the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic. A decade ago, the H1N1 virus caused 12,500 deaths in just 19 months globally. Now, again, the world has been challenged with another pandemic. Since December 2019, the first case of a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection was detected in Wuhan. This infection has risen rapidly throughout the world; even the World Health Organization (WHO) announced COVID-19 as a worldwide emergency to ensure human health and public safety. This review article aims to discuss important issues relating to COVID-19, including clinical, epidemiological, and pathological features of COVID-19 and recent progress in diagnosis and treatment approaches for the COVID-19 infection. We also highlight key similarities and differences between COVID-19 and influenza A to ensure the theoretical and practical details of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Comprehensive physiotherapy management in covid-19 – a narrative review

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 38030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deivendran Kalirathinam ◽  
Raj Guruchandran ◽  
Prabhakar Subramani
Keyword(s):  
Narrative Review ◽  
World Health ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Related Quality ◽  
Health Related ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Uk

The 2019 novel coronavirus officially named as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by the World Health Organization, has spread to more than 180 countries. The ongoing global pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, which causes COVID-19, spread to the United Kingdom (UK) in January 2020. Transmission within the UK was confirmed in February, leading to an epidemic with a rapid increase in cases in March. As on April 25- 2020, there have been 148,377 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the UK and 20,319 people with confirmed infection have died. Survival of critically ill patients is frequently associated with significant functional impairment and reduced health-related quality of life. Early physiotherapy and community rehabilitation of COVID-19 patients has recently been identified as an essential therapeutic tool and has become a crucial evidence-based component in the management of these patients. This comprehensive narrative review aims to describe recent progress in the application of physiotherapy management in COVID 19 patients. Assessment and evidence- based treatment of these patients should include prevention, reduction of adverse consequences in immobilization, and long-term impairment sequelae. A variety of techniques and modalities of early physiotherapy in intensive care unit are suggested by clinical research. They should be applied according to the stage of the disease, comorbidities, and patient’s level of cooperation.

scholarly journals Thoracic Surgery during Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): The Experience of a Level 1 Trauma Center

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Smelt ◽  
Gowthanan Santhirakumaran ◽  
Paul Vaughan ◽  
Ian Hunt ◽  
Carol Tan
Keyword(s):  
Thoracic Surgery ◽  
Trauma Center ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
World Health ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Trauma Service ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Level 1 Trauma Center

Abstract Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus primarily affecting the respiratory system, was initially diagnosed in Wuhan, China, in late 2019. Identified as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by the World Health Organization, the virus rapidly became a global pandemic. The effects on health care worldwide were unprecedented as countries adapted services to treat masses of critically ill patients.The aim of this study is to analyze the effect that the COVID-19 pandemic had on thoracic surgery at a major trauma center during peak prevalence. Methods Prospective unit data were collected for all patients who underwent thoracic surgery during March 2020 until May 2020 inclusive. Retrospective data were collected from an earlier comparable time period as a comparison. Results In the aforementioned time frame, 117 thoracic surgical operations were performed under the care of four thoracic surgeons. Six operations were performed on three patients who were being treated for SARS-CoV-2. One operation was performed on a patient who had recovered from SARS-CoV-2. There were no deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 in any patient undergoing thoracic surgery. Conclusion This study demonstrates that during the first surge of SARS-CoV-2, it was possible to adapt a thoracic oncology and trauma service without increase in mortality due to COVID-19. This was only possible due to a significant reduction in trauma referrals, cessation of benign and elective work, and the more stringent reprioritization of cancer surgery. This information is vital to learn from our experience and prepare for the predicted second surge and any similar future pandemics we might face.

scholarly journals Wellness Constraints Among International University Students Transitioning Through Covid 19

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 3444-3456
Author(s):  
Mr J Dorasamy, Et. al.
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
World Health ◽  
Social Emotional ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The World ◽  
International University ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

The World Health Organization (Who) In March 2020 Declared Covid 19 A Pandemic, Due To The  Global And Rapid Spread Of A Novel Coronavirus (Who, 2020). The Covid 19 Pandemic Being Highly Infectious And Unpredictable, Has  Disrupted  Social, Economic, Environmental And Political Spheres Of Life. Globally, People Have Ventured Into A “Lockdown World”, Increasing Uncertainty About Their Future Amidst The Covid 19 Pandemic. As A Result Of The Pandemic, Social Alteration Has Taken The Form Of Social Distancing, Self-Isolation And Self-Quarantine.  Many Were Unprepared For The Shift From The “Normal”, Propelling  Undue  Stress Under The New Normal Way Of Doing Things During The Current Global Pandemic Crisis. This Has Been Accompanied By Social, Emotional And Mental Effects, As The Ongoing And Fluid Nature Of The Pandemic Has Created Uncertainty For Many People. The Covid 19 Pandemic, As A Multidimensional Stressor Affecting Wellbeing, Has Affected Individuals, Families, Educational, Occupational, And Broader Societal Systems.  

scholarly journals National Institute for the Infectious Diseases “L. Spallanzani” IRCCS. Recommendations for COVID-19 Clinical Management

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emanuele Nicastri ◽  
Nicola Petrosillo ◽  
Tommaso Ascoli Bartoli ◽  
Luciana Lepore ◽  
Annalisa Mondi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
World Health ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
Respiratory Involvement ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Affected Country

On January 9th, 2020, the “World Health Organization” (WHO) declared the identification, by Chinese Health authorities, of a novel coronavirus, further classified as SARS-CoV-2 responsible of a diseases (COVID-19) ranging from asymptomatic cases to severe respiratory involvement. On March 9th, 2020, WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. Italy is the second most affected country by COVID-19 infection after China. The “L. Spallanzani” National Institute for the Infectious Diseases, IRCCS has been the first Italian hospital to admit and manage patients affected by COVID-19. Hereby, we show our recommendations for the management of COVID-19 patients, based on very limited clinical evidences; these recomendations should be considered as expert opinions, which may be modified according to newly produced literature data. *for the INMI COVID-19 Treatment Group – ICOTREG Abdeddaim A, Agrati C, Albarello F, Antinori A, Ascoli Bartoli T, Baldini F, Bellagamba R, Bevilacqua N, Bibas M, Biava G, Boumis E, Busso D, Camici M, Capobianchi MR, Capone A, Caravella I, Cataldo A, Cerilli S, Chinello G, Cicalini S, Corpolongo A, Cristofaro M, D’Abramo A, Dantimi C, De Angelis G, De Palo MG, D’Offizi G, De Zottis F, Di Lorenzo R, Di Stefano F, Fusetti M, Galati V, Gagliardini R, Garotto G, Gebremeskel Tekle Saba, Giancola ML, Giansante F, Girardi E, Goletti D, Granata G, Greci MC, Grilli E, Grisetti S, Gualano G, Iacomi F, Iannicelli G, Ippolito G, Lepore L, Libertone R, Lionetti R, Liuzzi G, Loiacono L, Macchione M,  Marchioni L, Mariano A, Marini MC, Maritti M, Mastrobattista A, Mazzotta V, Mencarini P, Migliorisi-Ramazzini P, Mondi A, Montalbano M, Mosti S, Murachelli S, Musso M, Nicastri E, Noto P, Oliva A, Palazzolo C, Palmieri F, Pareo C, Petrone A, Pianura E, Pinnetti C, Pontarelli A, Puro V, Rianda A, Rosati S, Sampaolesi A, Santagata C, Scarcia D’Aprano S, Scarabello A, Schininà V, Scorzolini L, Stazi GV, Taibi C, Taglietti F, Tonnarini R, Topino S, Vergori A, Vincenzi L, Visco-Comandini U, Vittozzi P, Zaccarelli M, Zaccaro G.

scholarly journals The Information Infrastructure of Search Engines: A Content Analysis of Covid-19 Immunization Information Online

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Renée Belliveau
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Search Engines ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Online Search ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Spread ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

After the World Health Organization declared the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a global pandemic in March 2020, they cautioned of another outbreak: an “infodemic.” This study examines how online search engines are influencing the global spread of immunization information about COVID-19. It aims to address the various ways in which search technology is shaping users’ perceptions of the pandemic and to measure the credibility of the sources they provide.

scholarly journals Respiratory Viral Co-infection with Novel Coronavirus in Children: A Case Series

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Hertzberg ◽  
C. Anthoney Lim ◽  
Erick Eiting ◽  
Steven Yung ◽  
Jeranil Nunez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Presentation ◽  
Case Series ◽  
Respiratory Viruses ◽  
World Health ◽  
Clinical Implications ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Surgical Evaluation ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract Background:The novel coronavirus, COVID-19 was identified in January 2020 initially in Wuhan, China but quickly spread worldwide and was declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. There are more than 185 countries impacted and the numbers of cases and deaths continues to rise. The rate of coinfections with COVID-19 in children and the clinical implications are unknown.Case Presentation:We describe the clinical presentation and course of three patients with COVID-19 and coinfections with other common respiratory viruses. Two cases were diagnosed with COVID-19 as well as rhinovirus/enterovirus and the third case was COVID-19 and pertussis. Each case had a unique presentations and hospital courses including an emergency room discharge, urgent surgical evaluation and an intensive care unit admission.Conclusions:This is the first US-based case report to discuss coinfections with COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses. Decisions regarding diagnosis and management of children in the setting of the current pandemic should account for the possibility of coinfections. We also highlight publish health challenged resulting from children with the novel coronavirus.

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