An Intercomparison of Future Projections on Domestic and Industrial Water Withdrawal in Global Water Resources Assessments

Data mining model is the most important technical basis of the control target decomposition for the most stringent water resources management of Shandong province. K-means clustering model is adopted to analysis the water withdrawal of industrial added value per ten thousand yuan in 2010. Based on the yearly industrial water consumption trend from 1995 to 2010 of 17 municipal-level cities in Shandong province, the ARIMA (p, d, q) model is established through a lot of fitting and optimization and then the regional industrial water demand and water utilization efficiency in 2015 were forecasted. According to the proposed principal and technical route of target decomposition, the industrial water utilization efficiency target in 2015 of the whole province and 17 municipal-level cities are defined respectively.

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A global water scarcity assessment under shared socio-economic pathways – Part 1: Water use

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-9-13879-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 9 (12) ◽

pp. 13879-13932 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

N. Hanasaki ◽

S. Fujimori ◽

T. Yamamoto ◽

S. Yoshikawa ◽

Y. Masaki ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Use ◽

21St Century ◽

Water Scarcity ◽

Climate Modeling ◽

Water Withdrawal ◽

Industrial Water ◽

Domestic Water ◽

Irrigation Area ◽

Five Factors ◽

Global Water

Abstract. A novel global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century is presented in a two-part paper. In this first paper, water use scenarios are presented for the latest global hydrological models. The scenarios are compatible with the socio-economic scenarios of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which are a part of the latest set of scenarios on global change developed by the integrated assessment, IAV (climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment), and climate modeling community. The SSPs depict five global situations based on substantially different socio-economic conditions during the 21st century. Water use scenarios were developed to reflect the key concepts underpinning each situation. Each scenario consists of five factors: irrigation area, crop intensity, irrigation efficiency, industrial water withdrawal, and municipal water withdrawal. The first three factors are used to estimate agricultural water withdrawal. All factors were developed using simple models based on a literature review and analysis of historical records. The factors are grid-based at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and cover the whole 21st century at 5-yr intervals. Each factor displays a wide variation among the different global situations depicted: the irrigation area in 2085 varies between 270 and 450 km2, industrial water between 246 and 1714 km3 yr−1, and domestic water withdrawal between 573 and 1280 km3 yr−1. The water use scenarios can be used for global water scarcity assessments by identifying the regions vulnerable to water scarcity and analyzing the timing and magnitude of scarcity conditions.

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An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 2: Applications and assessments

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-12-1027-2008 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 1027-1037 ◽

Cited By ~ 242

Author(s):

N. Hanasaki ◽

S. Kanae ◽

T. Oki ◽

K. Masuda ◽

K. Motoya ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Water Use ◽

Water Availability ◽

Asian Monsoon ◽

Environmental Flow ◽

Water Withdrawal ◽

Monsoon Region ◽

Asian Monsoon Region ◽

Meteorological Forcing ◽

Global Water

Abstract. To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module, the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3) and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately −11% to +5% globally. The integrated model is applicable to assessments of various global environmental projections such as climate change.

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Simulating human impacts on global water resources using VIC-5

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-13-5029-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (10) ◽

pp. 5029-5052

Author(s):

Bram Droppers ◽

Wietse H. P. Franssen ◽

Michelle T. H. van Vliet ◽

Bart Nijssen ◽

Fulco Ludwig

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Human Impacts ◽

Anthropogenic Impacts ◽

Environmental Flow ◽

Water Withdrawal ◽

Groundwater Depletion ◽

Vic Model ◽

Water Withdrawals ◽

Surface And Groundwater ◽

Global Water

Abstract. Questions related to historical and future water resources and scarcity have been addressed by several macroscale hydrological models. One of these models is the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. However, further model developments were needed to holistically assess anthropogenic impacts on global water resources using VIC. Our study developed VIC-WUR, which extends the VIC model using (1) integrated routing, (2) surface and groundwater use for various sectors (irrigation, domestic, industrial, energy, and livestock), (3) environmental flow requirements for both surface and groundwater systems, and (4) dam operation. Global gridded datasets on sectoral demands were developed separately and used as an input for the VIC-WUR model. Simulated national water withdrawals were in line with reported Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) national annual withdrawals (adjusted R2 > 0.8), both per sector and per source. However, trends in time for domestic and industrial water withdrawal were mixed compared with previous studies. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) monthly terrestrial water storage anomalies were well represented (global mean root-mean-squared error, RMSE, values of 1.9 and 3.5 mm for annual and interannual anomalies respectively), whereas groundwater depletion trends were overestimated. The implemented anthropogenic impact modules increased simulated streamflow performance for 370 of the 462 anthropogenically impacted Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) monitoring stations, mostly due to the effects of reservoir operation. An assessment of environmental flow requirements indicates that global water withdrawals have to be severely limited (by 39 %) to protect aquatic ecosystems, especially with respect to groundwater withdrawals. VIC-WUR has potential for studying the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic developments on current and future water resources and sector-specific water scarcity. The additions presented here make the VIC model more suited for fully integrated worldwide water resource assessments.

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GLOBAL WATER RESOURCE MODEL TAKING INTO ACCOUNT IRRIGATION WATER WITHDRAWAL FROM NONLOCAL WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers Ser B1 (Hydraulic Engineering) ◽

10.2208/jscejhe.70.i_253 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 70 (4) ◽

pp. I_253-I_258

Author(s):

Satsuki KITAMURA ◽

Sayaka YOSHIKAWA ◽

Shinjiro KANAE

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Water Resource ◽

Irrigation Water ◽

Water Withdrawal ◽

Resource Model ◽

Global Water

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The impacts of global water stress and the costs of mitigation in the future

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19215 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Xingcai Liu

Keyword(s):

Water Stress ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Deficit ◽

Water Withdrawal ◽

Stress Index ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Country Level ◽

Water Stress Index ◽

The Future ◽

Global Water

<p>Water stress has increased in many regions of the world during the past decades. It would be likely to continue in the near future due to intensified human activities and changing climate. Better projection of future water stress will facilitate water resources management and planning. Based on the improved water stress index (), we assess the future changes in water stress at the country level under climatic change and socioeconomic dynamics (e.g., population growth, economic development, land-use change) across scenarios. The water deficit, the unmet water demands against local water resources, is estimated for each country. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the global water stress are demonstrated and the main driving force is identified for the exacerbated stress on humans. The monetary value of the water deficit is estimated based on the water price valued for different sources of water withdrawal (e.g., surface water, groundwater, desalination, etc.). The total costs to mitigate or eliminate future water stress are estimated for each country. Finally, the risks and vulnerability due to global change in the future are assessed for each country. This study could be a reference for adaptation to climate change and the potential costs to achieve the SDGs in 2030.</p>

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An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 2: Anthropogenic activities modules and assessments

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-4-3583-2007 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 4 (5) ◽

pp. 3583-3626 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

N. Hanasaki ◽

S. Kanae ◽

T. Oki ◽

N. Shirakawa

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Asian Monsoon ◽

Storage Capacity ◽

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

Integrated Model ◽

Crop Growth ◽

Water Withdrawal ◽

Monsoon Region ◽

Asian Monsoon Region ◽

Global Water

Abstract. To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water resources and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and two natural hydrological cycle modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module and the river routing module. Here, we present the remaining four modules, which represent anthropogenic activities: a crop growth module, a reservoir operation module, an environmental flow requirement module, and an anthropogenic withdrawal module. In addition, we discuss the results of a global water resources assessment using the integrated model. The crop growth module is a relatively simple model based on heat unit theory and potential biomass and harvest index concepts. The performance of the crop growth module was examined extensively because agricultural water comprises approximately 70% of total water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to underestimate countries in the Asian monsoon region. In the reservoir operation module, 452 major reservoirs with more than 1 km³ each of storage capacity store and release water according to their own rules of operation. Operating rules were determined for each reservoir using an algorithm that used currently available global data such as reservoir storage capacity, intended purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in the lower reaches. The environmental flow requirement module was newly developed based on case studies from around the world. The integrated model closes both energy and water balances on land surfaces. Global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index that locates water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water resources and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The integrated model is applicable to assess various global environmental projections such as climate change.

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Mapping global water projects: improving access to donor investment information on the web

Water Policy ◽

10.2166/wp.2003.0012 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 203-212

Author(s):

J. Lisa Jorgensona

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Web Sites ◽

Large Scale ◽

Technical Assistance ◽

Water Withdrawal ◽

Small Scale ◽

Water Projects ◽

Essential Information ◽

Water Project ◽

The Web

This paper discusses a series of discusses how web sites now report international water project information, and maps the combined donor investment in more than 6000 water projects, active since 1995. The maps show donor investment: • has addressed water scarcity, • has improved access to improvised water resources, • correlates with growth in GDP, • appears to show a correlation with growth in net private capital flow, • does NOT appear to correlate with growth in GNI. Evaluation indicates problems in the combined water project portfolios for major donor organizations: •difficulties in grouping projects over differing Sector classifications, food security, or agriculture/irrigation is the most difficult. • inability to map donor projects at the country or river basin level because 60% of the donor projects include no location data (town, province, watershed) in the title or abstracts available on the web sites. • no means to identify donor projects with utilization of water resources from training or technical assistance. • no information of the source of water (river, aquifer, rainwater catchment). • an identifiable quantity of water (withdrawal amounts, or increased water efficiency) is not provided. • differentiation between large scale verses small scale projects. Recommendation: Major donors need to look at how the web harvests and combines their information, and look at ways to agree on a standard template for project titles to include more essential information. The Japanese (JICA) and the Asian Development Bank provide good models.

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Evaluating Cryospheric Water Withdrawal and Virtual Water Flows in Tarim River Basin of China: An Input–Output Analysis

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13147589 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (14) ◽

pp. 7589

Author(s):

Yang Yang ◽

Shiwei Liu ◽

Cunde Xiao ◽

Cuiyang Feng ◽

Chenyu Li

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

River Basin ◽

Socioeconomic Development ◽

Virtual Water ◽

Water Withdrawal ◽

Tarim River ◽

Tarim River Basin ◽

Input Output ◽

Output Analysis ◽

Water Flows

In Tarim River Basin (TRB), the retreat of glacier and snow cover reduction due to climate warming threatens the regional economy of downstream basins that critically depends on meltwater. However, the quantitative evaluation of its impact on multiple sectors of the socioeconomic system is incomplete. Based on compiled regional input–output table of the year 2012, this study developed a method to analyze the relationships between economic activities and related meltwater withdrawal, as well as sectoral transfer. The results show that the direct meltwater withdrawal intensity (DMWI) of agriculture was much higher than other sectors, reaching 2348.02 m3/10,000 CNY. Except for A01 (agriculture) and A02 (mining and washing of coal), the embodied meltwater withdrawal (EMW) driven by the final demand of other sectors was greater than direct meltwater withdrawal, and all sectors required inflows of virtual water (72.45 × 108 m3, accounting for 29% of total supply from cryospheric water resources) for their production processes in 2012. For sectors with high DMWI, improving water-use efficiency is an effective way to reduce water withdrawal. To some extent, the unbalanced supply of cryospheric water resources due to geographical segregation can be regulated by virtual water flows from water-saving to water-intensive sectors. Such decisions can affect the balance between socioeconomic development and environment conservation for long-term sustainability.

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