scholarly journals Dynamic price relationships and price discovery among cheese markets

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Hernan A. Tejeda ◽  
Man-Keun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
The United States ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Cottage Cheese ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Dynamic Price ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Price Relationship ◽  
Price Relationships

The United States (U.S.) cheese sector has been steadily growing throughout the years. Since 1980, U.S. consumers have doubled their annual consumption of cheese, currently at about 37.9 lbs. per capita in 2018 excluding cottage cheese. Cheese varieties are generally classified as American type (Cheddar, Monterey and others), Italian type (Mozzarella and others), and Other type (Swiss, Muenster and others) since they serve different markets. American cheese is consumed regularly in hamburgers, sandwiches and in similar settings. Italian cheese is typically consumed in pizzas, pasta and Italian cuisine. Despite the burgeoning growth in cheese demand, there has been no study addressing the dynamic price relationship among different varieties of cheese. This study investigates the price discovery process among cheese varieties: Cheddar, Mozzarella, Swiss, Muenster, and Monterey by using a vector error correction model and standard innovation accounting. Results indicate relative price interaction among different varieties of cheese, providing empirical evidence of some decouplment or separation among American (Cheddar and Monterey), Italian (Mozzarella), and Other type (Swiss). An exemption is Muenster which despite being classified as Other type of cheese responds to American’s Cheddar.

scholarly journals Measuring the Dis-Equilibrium in Acreage Response of Black Gram (Vigna mungo (L.) Hepper) in Tamil Nadu – A Vector Error Correction Model

2020 ◽  
pp. 26-36
Author(s):  
R. Sangeetha ◽  
K. R. Ashok ◽  
P. Asha Priyanka
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Black Gram ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run

The study has observed an increasing trend in pulses production, driven mainly by yield improvements. The contributions of area expansion and prices to black gram growth have been erratic, suggesting that these cannot be the sustainable sources of black gram growth. Further, farmers’ area allocation decisions to pulses are not price-dependent, but depend on non price factors, mainly rainfall. However, the growth in pulses production in the long-run must come from technological changes. Numerous past studies on black gram cultivation in Tamil Nadu is criticized for using the weaker Nerlovian Partial Adjustment models and for analytical interpretation through Ordinary Least Square (OLS) creating spurious results for time series data. This problem can be avoided if Econometric technique of co-integration is used. It is for the present paper measuring the dis-Equilibrium in acreage response of black gram by using a vector error correction model. Our unit root analysis indicates that underlying data series were not stationary and are all integrated of order one, that is I(1). The Johansen co-integration approach indicates the presence of a co-integrating relationship in the acreage response model. Black gram acreage is significantly influenced by relative price of black gram, and other competing crops such as groundnut whenever resourceallocation is concerned famers preferred to allocate irrigated land to other competing crops which are more remunerative and high yielding than black gram crop. The black gram supply elasticity’s are found to be inelastic both in the short-and long-run. The long-run and short run price elasticity’s were 0.41 and 0.28, respectively.

scholarly journals Price Discovery Mechanism in Spot and Futures Market of Agricultural Commodities: The Case of India

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Minakshi .
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

There has been increasing focus by emerging market researchers, policymakers and regulators for investigating price discovery, relationship between future and physical market and accessible trading and risk management instruments for the benefit of various stakeholders and thus contributing to the development of literature. The central question of this paper is examining the role of influence of one market on the other and the role of each market segment in price discovery in the Indian context. Johansen Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) has been employed to examine the relationship between the spot and futures prices. The cointegration results do not confirm the existence of long-run relationship between spot and futures prices. It is thus, implied that futures prices unlikely serve as market expectations of subsequent spot prices of selected agri-commodities in India and do not help in price discovery process.

Price discovery and pairs trading potentials: the case of metals markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saji Thazhugal Govindan Nair
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Pairs Trading ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Arbitrage Trading ◽  
Price Discovery Process ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This study aims to validate the “expectancy theory” of asset pricing and explores the price discovery process in metals futures markets. Design/methodology/approach This paper adopts the Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model approach to investigate the potentials of Pairs trading in the metals market during the period 2008–2019. Findings The results find the price movements in metal markets are not random walk and the current “futures” prices are the reasonable estimate of the “spot” metal prices in future. This study does not notice any significant differences in the price efficiency across metals markets, which signal the effects of limited idiosyncratic forces in price transmission. Practical implications The research suggests the covert use of metal futures to make gains from arbitrage trading. Originality/value The study emphasizes the potential of “pair trading” in commodity market context that is seldom discussed in academic papers.

THE CONTRIBUTION OF FOREIGN INVESTORS TO PRICE DISCOVERY IN THE INDONESIAN STOCK EXCHANGE

2013 ◽  
Vol 08 (02) ◽  
pp. 1350008
Author(s):  
JOSEPHINE SUDIMAN ◽  
DAVID EDMUND ALLEN ◽  
ROBERT JOHN POWELL
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Average Price ◽  
Price Equilibrium ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error

This article examines the contribution of foreign investors to price discovery by applying a vector error correction model (VECM) to 30 frequently-traded stocks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. We use the Lee and Ready (1991) rule to determine the initiator of a trade and compute the volume weighted average price (VWAP) for every 30 min interval during the period 2004–2006. There are three key findings. First, foreign investors are more aggressive than local investors in placing their orders yet foreigners do not trade as often as locals. Second, the profits of foreign investors are smaller than local investors. Third, foreign investors need to adjust their trade price at a higher magnitude to achieve price equilibrium, which indicates that the majority of price discovery occurs among local investors in the Indonesian market.

Analysis on the Effect of Price Discovery in Mini Derivatives : The Case of KOSPI200 Mini Options

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 623-656
Author(s):  
Woo–baik Lee
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Options Market ◽  
Information Share ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Empirical Analysis ◽  
Price Discovery Process

The KOSPI200 mini options market, introduced in July 2015, is a market where the trading multiplier is reduced to one-fifth of the regular options. This study shows that the price discovery effect of the original options and the mini options estimated by the vector error correction model (VECM) and Hasbrouck's information share (1995, 2003), based on the regular options-mini options arbitrage and the options-spot arbitrage. The results of the empirical analysis are summarized as follows. First, in the price discovery between the regular options and the mini options, regular options dominate mini options at a statistically significant level. Second, mini options tend to lead the spot, which is stronger than the regular options. Therefore, the regular options and the mini options show asymmetrical behavior in the price discovery process of the spot, opposite to each other and are interpreted as alternative derivatives in terms of investment strategy. Considering the immaturity of mini options market established during the sample period, the price discovery is efficient even though the trading activity in the mini options is lower than that of the regular options.

scholarly journals Cointegração e previsibilidade de abordagens VECM para o Ibovespa

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
Marcos Vinicius Lopes Pereira ◽  
Leonardo Carneiro De Araújo ◽  
Robert Aldo Iquiapaza
Keyword(s):  
Explanatory Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
The Impact

<p>The present research compares multivariate models applied to the IBovespa time series analysis. Macroeconomic variables, commodities and market indices are regressors suggested by the literature. The chosen approach uses a vector error correction model (VECM) alongside unit root and cointegration tests, robust under heteroskedasticity. The impact of national and international economic instability was controlled. To accomplish this, recessive cycles, in Brazil or in the United States, and the Brazilian electoral period were taken into account. In general, the evaluated models failed to meet the estimation’s assumptions, have low explanatory power and do not present significant relationship between IBOVESPA and dependent variables. However, evidence indicates that long-term relationships could exist, although this may not imply accuracy<br />in short-term predictions.</p>

Competitive and Complementary Relations in International Travel: The Case of British Travel to Cyprus

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 395-420
Author(s):  
Petros Anastasopoulos ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Strong Association ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Demand Equations

This is an econometric analysis of demand for travel to Cyprus by Britons. We examined the competitive and complementary relations between travel to Cyprus and other well-established travel destinations in the Mediterranean basin. Because many package tours include several countries in their destinations within a given journey, and because individual travelers find it more advantageous to visit more than one country in a single trip, it may be meaningful to examine international travel within the contest of groups of countries rather than a single country competing for international travelers. Specifically, we provide an analysis of the competitive and complementary relations existing between the tourism sectors of Cyprus and that of Greece, Spain and Portugal for British travelers. We provide estimates of income and relative price elasticities based of export demand equations upon annual data from 1980-2016. We tested for the stationarity of the variables and derived estimates of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). These tests confirm a strong association between the incomes of Britons and their decision to travel to Cyprus. Furthermore, we show the relative prices between Cyprus and other competing destinations in the Mediterranean to play an important role in determining British travel to Cyprus.

HUBUNGAN ANTARA CONSUMPTION ABROAD (MODA 2) DENGAN COMMERCIAL PRESENCE (MODA 3) DI SEKTOR JASA PARIWISATA INDONESIA

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-62
Author(s):  
Muhammad Fawaiq
Keyword(s):  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Mode 2 ◽  
Variable Mode ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Mode 3

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan antara Moda 2 dan Moda 3 dalam perdagangan internasional di sektor jasa pariwisata. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger. Data yang digunakan adalah data kedatangan wisatawan mancanegara dan Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) jasa hotel dan restoran tahun 1997-2014 di Bali, Jakarta, Kepulauan Riau dan Sumatera Utara. Daerah-daerah ini berkontribusi sebesar 81,26% dari total kedatangan wisatawan mancanegara di Indonesia dan 68% terhadap total FDI di jasa hotel dan restoran Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat hubungan kausalitas jangka pendek antara kedua variabel tetapi terdapat hubungan jangka panjang satu arah yaitu variabel Moda 3 dipengaruhi oleh variabel Moda 2. Hasil pengujian pada gabungan antara jangka panjang dan jangka pendek menujukkan bahwa variabel Moda 3 secara kuat dipengaruhi oleh variabel Moda 2. Dengan demikian diketahui bahwa semakin banyak jumlah wisatawan mancanegara yang datang ke Indonesia maka akan mendorong meningkatnya FDI di jasa hotel dan restoran, tetapi meningkatnya FDI di jasa tersebut tidak signifikan berpengaruh terhadap masuknya jumlah wisatawan mancanegara. This paper examines the relationship between Mode 2 and Mode 3 of international trade in tourism sector. The method used is the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger. The data used in this study were the number of foreign tourist arrivals and the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in some hotels and restaurants during 1997-2014 in Bali, Jakarta, Riau Islands and Nort Sumatera.These regions contributed for 81.26% out of the total tourist arrivals in Indonesia and 68% of the total FDI in the services of hotels and restaurants Indonesia. The results using VECM Granger demonstrated that there was no short-term causality relationship between these two variables but they had a long-term causality relationship that the Moda 3 was affected by the variable mode 2. Test results on a combination of long-term and short-term showed that the variable mode 3 was strongly influenced by variable mode 2. Thus, it is known that the more foreign tourists coming to Indonesia, the more FDI we gained from the service of hotels and restaurants, but this increase does not significantly affect the number of foreign tourists.

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