Starzenie się społeczeństwa a wzrost gospodarczy w krajach Unii Europejskiej

Due to the still growing demographic aging process and the significance of this process on the economy, the article analyzes relationship between the demographic aging of the European Union countries and economic growth. The aim of the research was to determine the impact of demographic aging on the rate of economic growth in the EU27. The research period covered the years 2000-2015. Data from the Eurostat and the World Bank databases were used. The study adopted a division into the “old” and “new” EU Member States. The rate of GDP growth was taken as the measure of economic growth, while the measures of demographic aging included the old-age rate (percentage of population aged 65 or over) and the venerable senility rate (share of the population at the age of 80 or more in the general number of population). Panel models were used. It was found that the demographical aging of society negatively correlates with the dynamics of economic growth. In panel models constructed for countries of the "old" Union, regression coefficients for the old-age rate and the venerable senility rate were respectively: –0,446 and –1,521, while for the "new" EU countries were equal to: –0,153 (for the old-age rate) and –0,980 (for the venerable senility rate). This means that the negative impact of demographic aging on the GDP growth rate is more strongly observed in the countries of the "old" Union in comparison with the countries of the "new" Union.

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Profitability Determinants of Big European Banks

Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice ◽

10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0013 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 39-56

Author(s):

Vesna Karadžić ◽

Nikola Đalović

Keyword(s):

Fixed Effects ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Ordinary Least Squares ◽

Annual Data ◽

The European Union ◽

Macroeconomic Factors ◽

Panel Models ◽

Econometric Methods ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

The Impact

Abstract The subject of research in this paper is the profitability of the biggest banks in the European financial market, some of which operate in Montenegro. The profitability of banks is influenced by a large number of factors, including internal banking and external macroeconomic factors. The aim of this paper is to use statistical and econometric methods to examine which factors and with what intensity affect the profitability of large banks in Europe. The empirical analysis used highly balanced panel models with annual data on 47 large banks from 14 European countries over the period 2013-2018. Three static panel models were estimated and evaluated (pooled ordinary least squares, model with fixed effects and model with random effects), as well as dynamic model utilizing general methods of moments. The POLS model was chosen as the best, confirming that all macroeconomic factors have a statistically significant impact on the profitability of big banks, while the impact of internal factors, which are controlled by the bank’s management, is not significant. GDP growth rate, inflation rate and market concentration have a positive effect on profitability, while the membership of the European Union has a negative impact on profit, meaning that banks with headquarters outside the EU are more profitable.

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Trade Balance Effects on Economic Growth: Evidence from European Union Countries

Economies ◽

10.3390/economies8030054 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (3) ◽

pp. 54

Author(s):

Deimante Blavasciunaite ◽

Lina Garsviene ◽

Kristina Matuzeviciute

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

European Union ◽

Trade Balance ◽

Fixed Effects ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Trade Deficit ◽

Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽

The European Union ◽

Linear Effect ◽

The Impact

A growing number of recent research analyse the trade balance impact on economic growth. However, ambiguous results of studies imply the need for the research as the deteriorating trade balance hinders economic growth. This research aims to investigate the impact of the trade balance on economic growth as well as to evaluate it during the periods of trade deficit. Our estimations are based on the European Union (EU) 28 countries panel data over the period of 1998–2018, using the OLS method of multivariate regression analysis with fixed effects and focusing on two strategies: (i) including all trade balance periods, and (ii) adding deficit dummy variable seeking to evaluate whether during deficit periods we can find different and significant effect on economic growth. Evaluating all trade balance periods, the obtained results indicate the negative and lagging impact of the trade balance on economic growth, and no significant differences of the impact were identified during the deficit periods. The deterioration of trade balance reduces average economic growth and from linear relationship evaluation, we can state that it does not matter whether it starts from trade deficit or surplus result. The results obtained may also obscure the possibility of a non-linear effect, which would suggest a stronger negative impact on economic growth when the trade balance deteriorates in the presence of a large trade deficit. When discussing directions for further research it would make sense to consider other factors, such as the size of the deficit and its permanence.

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Taxation, government spending and economic growth: The case of Bulgaria

Journal of Tax Reform ◽

10.15826/jtr.2021.7.3.102 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

pp. 255-266

Author(s):

G. Ganchev ◽

◽

I. Todorov ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Growth Rate ◽

Tax Revenue ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Real Gdp ◽

Long Run ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Short Run ◽

The Impact

The objective of this article is to estimate the impact of three fiscal instruments (direct taxes, indirect taxes, and government expenditure) on Bulgaria’s economic growth. The study employs an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Eurostat quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the period 1999–2020. Four control variables (the shares of gross capital formation, household consumption, and exports in GDP as well as the economic growth in the euro area) are included in the model to account for the influence of non-fiscal factors on Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate. The empirical results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship between Bulgaria’s economic growth and the independent variables in the ARDL. In the short term, Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate is affected by its own past values and the previous values of the shares of direct tax revenue, exports, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue in GDP. In the long term, Bulgaria’s economic growth is influenced by its own previous values and the past values of the share of household consumption in GDP and the euro area’s real GDP growth rate. Fiscal instruments can be used to stabilize Bulgaria’s growth in the short run but they are neutral in the long run. The direct tax revenue, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue are highly effective and can be used as tools for invigorating and stabilizing Bulgaria’s economic growth in the short run. However, in the long term, the real GDP growth rate can be hastened only by encouraging domestic demand (final consumption expenditure of households) and promoting exports. This research cannot answer the question of whether flat income taxation stabilizes the economy or not, since it does not separate the impact of tax rate changes from the influence of tax base modifications.

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Domestic Debt and Economic Growth in Tanzania

Journal of Economics and Management Sciences ◽

10.30560/jems.v1n1p207 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. p207

Author(s):

Josephat Lotto ◽

Catherine T. Mmari

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Growth Rate ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Domestic Debt ◽

Negative Effect ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact ◽

The Relationship ◽

Positive Effect

The main objective of this paper was to examine the impact of domestic debt on economic growth in Tanzania for the period 1990 to 2015 using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression method to estimate the effects. The study finds that there is an inverse but insignificant relationship between domestic debt and the economic growth of Tanzania as measured by GDP annual growth. The inverse relationship between domestic debt and GDP may be caused by different factors such as; increased trend in domestic borrowing, government lenders’ profile dominated by commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions which promotes the “crowding out” effect; the nature of the instruments used by the government ; the improper use of the domestic borrowed funds which may include funding budgetary deficits, paying up principal and matured obligations on debt, developing financial markets as well as fund other government operations. Other control variables relate with the GDP as predicted. For example, Inflation (INF) has a negative effect on the GDP growth rate, but the relationship is not statistically significant, while gross capital formation (GCF) has a positive statistically significant effect on GDP growth rate. Furthermore, foreign direct investment (FDI) showed a positive effect on the GDP growth rate and export (X) has a positive effect on GDP growth rate, and the relationship is statistically significant explaining that if a country applied an export-led growth economic strategy it enjoys the gains of participating in the world market. This means that an increase in export stimulates demand for goods which leads to increase in output, and as a country’s output increases, the economic performance also takes a similar trend. Finally, government expenditure (GE) had a negative effect on the GDP growth rate which may be explained by the increased government expenditures which are funded by either tax or borrowing. Therefore, what is required for countries like Tanzania is to have better debt management strategies as well as prudential financial management while maintaining to remain within the internationally acceptable debt level of 45% of GDP and maintain a GDP growth rate of not less than 5%. It is important for the country to realize from where to borrow from, the tenure, the risks involved and limitations to borrowing and thus set the right balance of combination of both kinds of debt. Another requirement is to properly utilize the borrowed funds. The central government’s objective should be to use the funds in more development-oriented projects that bring positive returns to the economic development. The government should not only create a right environment and policies for investment to attract investment from domestic and foreign sources but also be cautious about the kind of investments that the foreign investors make.

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INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE EXAMPLE OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

ACTA ECONOMICA ◽

10.7251/ace2033021b ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 21-41

Author(s):

Jelena Bjelić

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Growth Rate ◽

Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽

Foreign Investment ◽

Added Value ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Total Investment ◽

The Impact ◽

The Relationship

An investment is a factor of the economic growth and a mandatory constituent in the majority of development models. This study analyzes the impact of the gross investment on the economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) for the period 2005-2017, and provides the assessment of the interdependence of investment and a newly added value in industry. The relationship between the foreign investment and the economic growth is also included. The dependent variables are the GDP growth rate and the added value in industry (as % of GDP). The independent variables are the total investment rate (as % of GDP) and the foreign investment rate (as % of GDP). The hypothesis is that the gross investment and the foreign investment are positively correlated with the GDP growth rate. The investments contribute to a higher newly added value in industry. The results show that the gross investment is a significant factor of the economic growth because there is a high significance and positive correlation between the observed variables (the total investment and the GDP growth). This shows that the investment growth stimulates the economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina. But the dynamic analysis as an investment-GDP ratio shows oscillations. The impact of investments on the share of the newly added value in industry is insignificant and negative. The results of the dynamic analysis are similar. The relationship between the variables of the foreign investment rates and the GDP growth is significant and positive. Although the foreign investments are not sufficient, they still contribute, to a certain extent, to the economic growth of BiH.

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Investigating the Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan

Journal of Business & Tourism ◽

10.34260/jbt.v4i2.160 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 41-51

Author(s):

IRUM SAJJAD ◽

DR. MUHAMMAD AZAM KHAN

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Growth Rate ◽

External Debt ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Explanatory Variables ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽

The Impact ◽

Adf Test

This article is an attempt to evaluate the effect of external debt on economic growth for during the period of 1980–2016. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test is used for determining stationarity, whereas the ADF test results exhibit that the variables used found are . The empirical results indicate that external debt and total debt service have deleterious and statistically significant impacts on GDP growth rate. The other explanatory variables namely human capital by life expectancy, exports, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)reveals significantly positive significant influence on GDP growth rate. Appropriate policy should be adopted by the policy makers to reduce external debt, increase volume of exports and enhance more foreign investment, it will boost economic growth in the country.

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Analyzing the Impact of the Renewable Energy Sources on Economic Growth at the EU Level Using an ARDL Model

Mathematics ◽

10.3390/math8081367 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (8) ◽

pp. 1367 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Mihail Busu

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Renewable Energy ◽

Regression Model ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Renewable Energy Sources ◽

Energy Sources ◽

The European Union ◽

Causality Analysis ◽

The Impact ◽

The Eu

Energy is one of the most important drivers of economic growth, but as the population is increasing, in normal circumstances, in all countries of the world, there is a demand for energy produced from conventional resources. Increasing prices of conventional energy and the negative impact on the environment are two of the main reasons for switching to renewable energy sources (RESs). The aim of the paper is to quantify the impact of the RESs, by type, on the sustainable economic growth at the European Union (EU) level. The research was performed for all 28 EU member states, for a time frame from 2004 to 2017, through a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and causality analysis. Furthermore, Hausman test was performed on the regression model. By estimating the panel data regression model with random effects, we reveal through our results that RESs, namely wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, and hydropower energy, have a positive influence on economic growth at EU level. Moreover, biomass has the highest impact on economic growth among all RES. In fact, a 1% increase in biomass primary production would impact the economic growth by 0.15%. Based on econometric analysis, our findings suggest that public policies at the EU level should be focused on investment in RESs.

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CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE OF THE ELDERLY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: CONVERGENCE AND IMPACT ON GDP

The Annals of the University of Oradea. Economic Sciences ◽

10.47535/1991auoes30(1)029 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 30 (30 (1)) ◽

pp. 268-275

Author(s):

Sanda Anca

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

European Union ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Ageing Population ◽

Age Group ◽

Consumption Expenditure ◽

The European Union ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Convergence Process ◽

The Impact

In the context of an ageing population, the aim of this study is to analyze how the consumption expenditure of the age group 50 plus affected the GDP growth rate during the period 2005-2019, at the level of the European Union countries. Using spatial econometrics, we study the convergence process of both the consumption expenditure of the 50 plus age group and the GDP. Furthermore, we analyze the relationship between the two variables and its evolution in time. We conclude that there is a bidirectional relationship between the studied variables: an increase in the growth rate of the 50 plus age consumption significantly and positively impacts the GDP growth rate and vice versa. At the level of Western European states where the share of 50 plus population is the highest, the impact on GDP growth rate is stronger. The results are relevant for further identifying possible economic opportunities created by the ageing population while supporting the European Union cohesion policy through the convergence process aimed at reaching an overall harmonious development within the member states and regions.

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DETERMINING THE IMPACTS OF FREIGHT TRANSPORT MODE COMBINATIONS ON AIR POLLUTION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Facta Universitatis Series Automatic Control and Robotics ◽

10.22190/fuacr2003191p ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 19 (3) ◽

pp. 191

Author(s):

Nikola Petrović ◽

Vesna Jovanović ◽

Marijana Petrović ◽

Boban Nikolić

Keyword(s):

Neural Networks ◽

Air Quality ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Freight Transport ◽

The European Union ◽

Transport Mode ◽

Eu Member States ◽

Feed Forward Neural Networks ◽

The Impact ◽

The Eu

Transport is one of the largest emitters of harmful substances that affect air quality. Each combination of freight transport modes has a different volume and at the same time has a differentiated negative impact on air quality. That is why the European Union has been making special efforts for many years to create and implement strategies aimed at improving air quality. The main goal of this paper is to present a methodology that enables quantification and analysis of the impact of each freight transport mode combination on air quality using feed-forward neural networks. The developed model uses the parameters of the EU member states in the period from 2000 to 2014. In addition to the scientific and practical contribution, the development of the model provides a good basis for the universal platform formation in order to create and develop strategies, i.e. measures to improve air quality on a global level.

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Shift in tax burden and its impact on economic growth in the European Union

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis ◽

10.11118/actaun201361041153 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 61 (4) ◽

pp. 1153-1160 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Irena Szarowská

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

European Union ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Annual Data ◽

Tax Burden ◽

The European Union ◽

Causality Test ◽

Tax Rate ◽

Eu Member States ◽

The Eu

This article deals with a tax burden in the European Union in as financial and economic crisis has impacted also on tax systems in the European Union. Governments’ tax measure aims to consolidate public finance and promote an economic growth. The article provides empirical evidence on a shift in a tax burden and its structure and analyzes the effects of shift in tax burden on economic growth in the EU. It is used the Eurostat definition to categorize tax burden by economic functions and implicit rates of consumption, labour and capital are investigated. The analysis is based on annual data of the EU member states in a period 1995–2010. On average, labour taxes have decreased by 1.9 p.p., capital taxes have also decreased – by 2.1 p.p., but consumption taxes have mildly increased by 0.4 p.p. in the European Union in a period 1995–2010. Pairwise Granger Causality Test was used for examining relations between economic growth and tax burden by economic functions in short-term. Results confirm that there is two-way causality between change of implicit tax rate of consumption and GDP growth; and also GDP growth Granger-causes change of implicit tax rate of capital and implicit tax rate of labour through one-way causality.

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