scholarly journals Transition of risk into uncertainty under conditions of global crisis

2009 ◽  
pp. 61-72
Author(s):  
Isidora Ljumovic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
State Interventions ◽  
Further Development ◽  
Made In

Financial globalization and global crisis enforced structural changes in world economy, reflecting them to the concept of risk and uncertainty. This paper gives theoretical, historical and economical overview of risk uncertainty, financial disruption and global crisis relations. Also it deals with a detailed individual risks typology, as well as with conditions for risk transition into uncertainty. When financial disruptions turn into global economic crisis, risks are turning into uncertainty disabling economy to progress. Having in mind that all risk management models were made in a non crisis period, it is of great importance to manage risks in time of crisis because some model assumptions might have changed. Finally, this paper points out that the replacement of existing models and state interventions are necessary in order to transfer uncertainty into risk and enable further development of economy.

Transformation of Global Finances

2010 ◽  
pp. 3-22
Author(s):  
M. Petrov ◽  
D. Plissetskii
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Transition Economies ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
The World ◽  
Accelerated Growth

An outstanding feature of the world economy development at the beginning of Millennium is an accelerated growth of countries with developing and transition economies. Expansion of domestic demand, abrupt export buildup facilitated a significant GDP increase in these states, which in its turn gave a strong impulse to domestic capital markets development. The global crisis became a serious test for most of developing and post-socialist countries, in which case the meaningful drop in outside financing was one of its most painful consequences. Nevertheless, the sequential strengthening of states with emerging markets will be one of the key tendencies in the world financial system restructuring during the post-crisis period.

scholarly journals The Complexity of Risk and Uncertainty Assessment

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 43-49
Author(s):  
Dalis Maria Drăghici
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Uncertainty Assessment ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Uncertainty Component ◽  
Risk Framework ◽  
Risk Approach ◽  
Further Development

Abstract Risk reduction means diminishing uncertainties and strengthening the knowledge. There are many ways in which undesirable surprises can be understood and controlled, but the dominating one is the risk approach, on the basis of risk conceptualization, evaluation and risk management. Across time, many progresses have been accomplished in the field of risk, connected not only to the conceptual part, but also to the empirical procedures. Despite this, the premise of this domain is being represented to a substantial extend by theories and practices. This is why it is indispensable to search for trends in the risk framework, to reveal whether further development should be desired and if uncertainties’ consequences are measured properly. The aim of this article is to present an analysis of some fundamental breakthroughs developed in the risk field, with a particular attention on the fundamental concepts. In addition, I also pursued to provide you with new insights on how to assess, perceive, describe and manage the unforeseen situations altogether with analyzing the uncertainty component of risk. To understand the risk has to be in continuous harmony with the acknowledgement element of the same concept.

scholarly journals Economic crisis and security concerns of wholesalers in Eastern European and Central Asian countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayse Nilgun Balas ◽  
Halil Dincer Kaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
The Other ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Similar Percentage ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Central Asian Countries

We examine how the 2008-2009 global crisis affected wholesalers’ spending on security and their losses due to crime in Eastern European and Central Asian countries. The results indicate that a similar percentage of wholesalers paid for security pre- and post-crisis. The results also indicate that the wholesalers that paid for security spent less on security post-crisis. A higher percentage of the partnerships and the larger wholesalers spent money on security post-crisis when compared to the pre-crisis period. On the other hand, fewer shareholding firms with shares traded privately and fewer firms with one or more female owners spent money on security post-crisis when compared to pre-crisis. Especially smaller firms, firms that are not part of a larger firm and sole proprietorships spent less on security post-crisis. Also, fewer wholesalers experienced losses due to crime post-crisis when compared to the pre-crisis period. Finally, our results indicate that, after the crisis, crime was seen as less of an obstacle by these firms.

scholarly journals Economies of Turkic Republics after 2008 Global Crisis and their Commercial Relations with Turkey

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Müslüme Narin ◽  
Akın Marşap
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Great Depression ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
The Great Depression

In 2008, world economy has faced with the largest crisis, since the great depression in1929. The economic crisis, which started at financial markets, has turned into dramatic occasion in the second half of 2008 and got under control real economy. As a result of globalism, this crisis has affected developing economies as much as developed economies. Growth rate of Turk Republics and Turkey has decreased with the effect of the crisis. The aim of this paper is to analyze Turkic Republics economies after global crisis and their commercial relations with Turkey. By this way, first the causes of the global crisis and its effects on world economy will be focused and then, all of the economical situation of the Turkic Republics and global crisis has affected on its will be discussed. Finally, Turkic Republics commercial relations with Turkey will be inquired.

Some Findings of the Empirical Analysis of the 2008—2009 Global Crisis Determinants

2012 ◽  
pp. 32-45
Author(s):  
M. Stolbov
Keyword(s):  
Public Finance ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
Global Recession ◽  
The World ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The paper synthesizes the results of the empirical research of the 2008—2009 global economic crisis determinants. Some of them are additionally tested and specified. In particular, the so called decoupling hypothesis is suggested to be split into weak and strong forms: the developing economies appear to have been vulnerable to the global crisis, but in a lesser degree than the OECD countries. Trade determinants of the crisis haven't proved their dominant significance over financial channel factors. Public debt relative to GDP is a new variable on the crisis determinants list, as it limited the scale of stabilizing policies during the crisis due to growing risks of violating public finance resilience. The paper also shows that the probability of a new crisis comparable to the 2008—2009 global recession has not reduced and poses a serious challenge to the world economy now.

FORMALIZED DESCRIPTION OF THE PROCEDURE OF INFORMATION SYSTEM RISK MANAGEMENT

2018 ◽  
pp. 61-70
Author(s):  
Svetlana Sergeevna Kozunova ◽  
Alla Grigorievna Kravets
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Management Procedure ◽  
System Risk ◽  
Weak Points ◽  
Formalized Description ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Further Development

The article highlights the aspects of risk management in the information system. According to the analysis of the work of Russian and foreign scientists and world practices in the field of risk management, it is stated that there is a need to improve the effectiveness of risk management of information system and to develop a method for managing the risks of the information system. As a solution to the problem of effective risk management of the information system, there has been proposed a formalized procedure for managing the risks of the information system. The scientific novelty of this solution is the use of decision space and optimization space to reduce risks. This procedure allows to assess the damage, risk and effectiveness of risk management of the information system. The risks of the information system are determined and analyzed; a pyramidal risk diagram is developed. This diagram allows you to describe the relationship of risks with the components of the information system. The negative consequences to which these risks can lead are given. The analysis of methods and approaches to risk management has been carried out. Based on the results of the analysis, the methods GRAMM, CORAS, GOST R ISO / IEC scored to the maximum. The weak points of these methods and the difficulty of applying these methods in practice are described. The developed formalized risk management procedure to control the risks of information system can be used as management system’s element of the information security quality that complies with the recommendations of GOST R ISO / IEC 27003-2012. The prospect of further development of the research results is the development of management systems of risk of information system.

St. Petersburg industrial policy: Determining the factors of structural changes in industry through Shift-Share Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 909-939
Author(s):  
M.V. Dement'ev
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Policy ◽  
Structural Transformation ◽  
Mechanical Engineering ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Factor Analyses ◽  
Further Development ◽  
Positive Results

Subject. This article examines the theoretical and practical aspects of the implementation of industrial policy and the structural transformation of the manufacturing industry in St. Petersburg. Objectives. The article aims to justify the priority of the industry-based approach to industrial policy in St. Petersburg and determine its effectiveness by highlighting the factors of structural transformation of the city's manufacturing industry using the Shift-Share Analysis method. Methods. For the study, I used logical, statistical, and factor analyses. Results. Based on shift-share analysis, the study highlights positive results of industrial policy in the development of certain industries in St. Petersburg, as well as those industries that require further development of urban industrial policy. Conclusions. Despite the fact that the industry of St. Petersburg as a whole has become more stable, problems in the development of mechanical engineering and production of computers, electronic and optical products have not yet been solved.

Coronavirus economic crisis in the world economy: features and consequences

2020 ◽  
pp. 7-21
Author(s):  
R. Khasbulatov ◽  
A. Byasharova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government

The article reveals the features of a qualitatively new global coronavirus-economic crisis as well as its dangerous consequences for all countries with no exceptions. Not one single country stays aloof from this crisis. The reaction of the government, their mitigation activities is also discussed in the article.

Cyclic Economic Dynamics and Deflationary Phenomena: Analysis and Forecasts

2018 ◽  
pp. 48-62
Author(s):  
Руслан Гринберг ◽  
Ruslan Grinberg ◽  
Леонид Гринин ◽  
Leonid Grinin ◽  
Андрей Коротаев ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Control Mechanisms ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Western Economy ◽  
The World

The modern deflationary phenomena in the western and global economy are attributed to the fact that currently it is at the downward phase of the fifth long K-wave. Deflation has always been typical for the depressive periods in economy; presently it also manifests itself as the world economy has turned global, yet it lacks any control mechanisms. The authors suppose that a new economic crisis will break out in the western economy in the second half of 2018–2019 and that the depressive and deflationary trends will continue for another number of years.

Spillovers to the Global South

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Global South ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Very High

The crisis demolished the myth that EDEs were decoupled from advanced economies and BRICS were becoming new engines of global growth. From 2011 onwards, with the end of the twin booms in commodity prices and capital inflows, growth in EDEs has converged downward towards the depressed levels of advanced economies from the very high levels achieved in the run-up to the global crisis and the immediate aftermath. Loss of momentum is particularly visible in economies that failed to manage the earlier booms prudently. In examining the spillovers from policies in major advanced economies and China to EDEs, the chapter introduces the notion of commodity-finance nexus wherein these markets reinforce each other during both expansions and contractions. The chapter concludes with a brief discussion of policies needed to put the world economy into decent shape and to avoid liquidity and debt crises in EDEs.

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