scholarly journals Dengue and SARS-CoV-2 Co-Circulation Early Warning according to Climate Variations in Cuba

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yazenia Linares Vega
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Interpolation Method ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Autoregressive Models ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Climatic Index ◽  
Map Algebra ◽  
Rainy Period ◽  
Spatial Autoregressive

Dengue and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndromes Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) co-circulation is a reality resulting to be more dangerous in regions that are endemic for arboviruses. Circulation of both viruses continue spreading, mainly in tropical settings causing a high impact on the health systems of the countries. Therefore, forecasting the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 virus and dengue from the climatic variability a temporal and spatial scale allows to perfect the warning system and provides a tool for decision makers in the health system to take the necessary control measures. Methods: Ecological study with retrospective-prospective analysis of the series of the SARS- CoV-2 viruses, dengue, as well as, Aedes focus with their index and the climatic anomalies described by the complex climatic Index of Bulto (BI1, r, t). Interpolation method for the spatial structure with continuous information of 1200 nodes (Raster format) was generated. Kriging method combined with the method of the inverse distance (IDM) was implemented with a resolution of 10 km2 . The Multivariate Moran Index was used to determine the spatial correlation. For the prediction, the Simultaneous Autoregressive Models and the Spatial Autoregressive Conditional Models were used. Temporal modeling was carried out by using the Heteroscedastic Conditional Autoregressive and Autoregressive Models, both with exogenous variables. To obtain the co-circulation risk forecast maps, a stratification of the circulation of both viruses is carried out and map algebra is applied. Results: The moments of greatest risk Dengue and SARS-CoV-2 co-circulation are the months corresponding to the second quarter of the rainy period August-October with very humid conditions, very high temperatures, high volume of precipitation, high cloudiness, being potential predictors. All these results led to the creation of the dengue alert system and co-circulation with SARS-CoV-2 based on the observation and forecast of climatic factors. The areas with major viral co-circulation were the Central-Eastern region. Conclusions: It is evident that the climate is an important determinant for the health sector, and in particular to understand the Dengue and SARS-CoV-2 behavior and co-circulation, which strengthens the active health surveillance system.

scholarly journals Demographic effects of interacting species: exploring stable coexistence under increased climatic variability in a semiarid shrub community

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana I. García-Cervigón ◽  
Pedro F. Quintana-Ascencio ◽  
Adrián Escudero ◽  
Merari E. Ferrer-Cervantes ◽  
Ana M. Sánchez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Species Coexistence ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Shrub Community

AbstractPopulation persistence is strongly determined by climatic variability. Changes in the patterns of climatic events linked to global warming may alter population dynamics, but their effects may be strongly modulated by biotic interactions. Plant populations interact with each other in such a way that responses to climate of a single population may impact the dynamics of the whole community. In this study, we assess how climate variability affects persistence and coexistence of two dominant plant species in a semiarid shrub community on gypsum soils. We use 9 years of demographic data to parameterize demographic models and to simulate population dynamics under different climatic and ecological scenarios. We observe that populations of both coexisting species may respond to common climatic fluctuations both similarly and in idiosyncratic ways, depending on the yearly combination of climatic factors. Biotic interactions (both within and among species) modulate some of their vital rates, but their effects on population dynamics highly depend on climatic fluctuations. Our results indicate that increased levels of climatic variability may alter interspecific relationships. These alterations might potentially affect species coexistence, disrupting competitive hierarchies and ultimately leading to abrupt changes in community composition.

scholarly journals Species diversity and spatial distribution of CL/VL vectors: assessing bioclimatic effect on expression plasticity of genes possessing vaccine properties isolated from wild-collected sand flies in endemic areas of Iran

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Bordbar ◽  
Parviz Parvizi
Keyword(s):  
Gene Expression ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Interpolation Method ◽  
Diversity Index ◽  
Fold Change ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Pcr Analysis ◽  
Physiological Status ◽  
Sand Flies ◽  
Risk Maps

Abstract Background Leishmaniasis is one of the ten most important neglected tropical diseases worldwide. Understanding the distribution of vectors of visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis (VL/CL) is one of the significant strategic frameworks to control leishmaniasis. In this study, the extent of the bioclimatic variability was investigated to recognize a rigorous cartographic of the spatial distribution of VL/CL vectors as risk-maps using ArcGIS modeling system. Moreover, the effect of bioclimatic diversity on the fold change expression of genes possessing vaccine traits (SP15 and LeIF) was evaluated in each bioclimatic region using real-time PCR analysis. Methods The Inverse Distance Weighting interpolation method was used to obtain accurate geography map in closely-related distances. Bioclimatic indices were computed and vectors spatial distribution was analyzed in ArcGIS10.3.1 system. Species biodiversity was calculated based on Shannon diversity index using Rv.3.5.3. Expression fold change of SP15 and LeIF genes was evaluated using cDNA synthesis and RT-qPCR analysis. Results Frequency of Phlebotomus papatasi was predominant in plains areas of Mountainous bioclimate covering the CL hot spots. Mediterranean region was recognized as an important bioclimate harboring prevalent patterns of VL vectors. Semi-arid bioclimate was identified as a major contributing factor to up-regulate salivary-SP15 gene expression (P = 0.0050, P < 0.05). Also, Mediterranean bioclimate had considerable effect on up-regulation of Leishmania-LeIF gene in gravid and semi-gravid P. papatasi population (P = 0.0109, P < 0.05). Conclusions The diversity and spatial distribution of CL/VL vectors associated with bioclimatic regionalization obtained in our research provide epidemiological risk maps and establish more effectively control measures against leishmaniasis. Oscillations in gene expression indicate that each gene has its own features, which are profoundly affected by bioclimatic characteristics and physiological status of sand flies. Given the efficacy of species-specific antigens for vaccine production, it is essential to consider bioclimatic factors that have a fundamental role in affecting the regulatory regions of environmentally responsive loci for genes used in vaccine design.

Ramification of Global and Local Climatic Variability on Resurgent Cases of Dengue in Delhi, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 32-41
Author(s):  
Netrananda Sahu ◽  
Martand Mani Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Climatic Variation ◽  
Statistical Tool ◽  
High Positive Correlation ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Monsoon Index ◽  
Vector Borne

It has become evident that the global climate is changing rapidly over the past few decades. The variation and change in the global climatic factors have a notable impact on the local climate of a region. The changing climate is widely regarded as one of the most serious global health threats of the 21st century. Among various kinds of diseases, the most vulnerable to these changes are vector-borne diseases. In the Indian context, particularly Delhi city is the most vulnerable to dengue, a kind of vector-borne disease having its highest impact. We sought to identify and explore the correlation and influence of the global climatic phenomena and local climatic factors with the reported number of dengue cases in Delhi. The temporal expansions of reported dengue cases in Delhi have a variation from its first major outbreak in the city during the year 1996 to 2015. A statistical tool like Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) is used in this study to establish the interrelationship and the level of impact and local climatic variation on dengue. An exceptional negative correlation value of r = -0.82 between the monsoon index and the dengue incidences was reported during the positive years and also maintains a very high positive correlation with other global climatic indices. The study here finds that there is a strong correlation of climatic variation which further influences the epidemiology of dengue in Delhi.

Examining the Association Between Massage Parlors and Neighborhood Crime

2018 ◽  
Vol 65 (11) ◽  
pp. 1537-1569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Huff ◽  
Danielle Wallace ◽  
Courtney Riggs ◽  
Charles M. Katz ◽  
David Choate
Keyword(s):  
Management System ◽  
Autoregressive Models ◽  
Physical Disorder ◽  
Record Management ◽  
Social Disorder ◽  
Neighborhood Crime ◽  
Spatial Autoregressive ◽  
Spatial Autoregressive Models ◽  
The Impact ◽  
User Review

Although massage parlors have been associated with illicit activities including prostitution, less is known about their association with neighborhood crime. Employing the Computer Automated Dispatch/Record Management System (CAD/RMS), online user review, licensing, Census, and zoning data, we examine the impact of massage parlors on crime in their surrounding neighborhoods. Using spatial autoregressive models, our results indicate the total number of massage parlors was associated with increased social disorder. The presence of illicit massage parlors in adjacent neighborhoods was associated with crime and physical disorder in the focal neighborhoods. This study has consequences for how police address crime associated with massage parlors. Specifically, the use of online user review forums could be an effective way to identify illicit massage parlors. Recommendations for policing and code enforcement are discussed.

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