Dual Real Options Valuation

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Smit ◽  
Thras Moraitis
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Growth Options ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Dual Approach ◽  
Real Options Valuation ◽  
Acquisition Strategy

This chapter discusses the application of the top-down and bottom-up duality of the real option frameworks to valuing serial acquisitions. It develops the market-based present value of growth options (PVGO) method into a framework that directly connects serial acquisition strategy to value creation on financial markets, and so helps to explain the full market value of companies in consolidating industries. In addition, in a bottom-up approach, it considers acquisitions as portfolios of interrelating acquisition options, each stage being an option on the next, which can develop the firm's asset base dynamically and opportunistically. This dual approach to value acquisition programs is called the market method for acquisitions.

scholarly journals Real Options Analysis for Acquisition of New Technology: A Case Study of Korea K2 Tank’s Powerpack

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 3866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sungchul Kim ◽  
Ronald Giachetti ◽  
Sangsung Park
Keyword(s):  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
The Real ◽  
Weapon Systems ◽  
Real Options Valuation ◽  
Real Option Valuation ◽  
Acquisition Strategy ◽  
Options Valuation

For sustainable defense management, it is essential to acquire weapons systems that can adapt to future uncertain threats and, at the same time, to invest efficiently with limited budgets. Economic analysis is used to examine the costs, benefits and uncertainties of alternatives. In particular, the use of the real options valuation, which is one of the methodologies of economic analysis, is expanding. The real options valuation has shown effectiveness across various industries to evaluate investment strategies. In this paper, we apply the real options valuation to the weapon systems development case and confirm its usefulness. Unlike previous studies, the real option valuation methodology is applied retroactively to the finished project, compared to existing research mainly applying real options to value research and development (R&D) without knowing how the project completed. We use the following procedure. (1) Define the uncertainties of the three acquisition alternatives (development, technology adoption, and purchase). (2) Calculate the benefits of the three acquisition alternatives with expected and actual data without uncertainties. (3) Model the decision tree without options and with options. (4) Analyze and compare results with benefit and benefit cost ratio. We analyzed the Korea K2 tank powerpack development case by applying real options. We could see that the real options could have reduced the risk of losses when the development risk is high and market uncertainty exists. From the case study of the development of the powerpack, we learned the following three lessons. First, we reaffirmed the importance of objective value analysis in project decision making. Second, we need to analyze the project value continuously and revise the acquisition strategy accordingly. Third, the effectiveness of the real options valuation was confirmed for sustainable defense management. In addition, the real option analysis data acquired from similar finished projects can be useful for establishing a new product acquisition strategy and, at every decision-making phase, the real option evaluation should be continuously performed with updated information. In this paper, we first perform real option valuation of finished weapon systems in the Korean defense field. This paper is valuable in establishing a rational methodology for applying economic analysis to weapon system acquisition projects.

scholarly journals A Real Options Approach to Valuate Solar Energy Investment with Public Authority Incentives: The Italian Case

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 4181
Author(s):  
Antonio Di Bari
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Option Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Energy Investment ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Options Approach ◽  
Real Option Value

Solar energy investment represents currently a valid reason to support sustainable economic development. In fact, over the last few years, governments have applied different measures to incentivize private consumers and firms to use renewable energies. Photovoltaic (PV) projects are characterized by uncertainty due to meteorological conditions, the unpredictable behavior of government, and managerial flexibility. Since the Net Present Value (NPV) approach is not able to capture these uncertain factors, it was replaced with the Real Options Approach (ROA). The latter method manages to embed flexibility in PV investment using binomial trees. This paper valuates PV investment in all regional areas in Italy using an integrated approach between the discounted cash flows method and real option value, called Expanded Net Present Value (ENPV). We fit the probability of tax benefits into a binomial lattice model after analyzing the geographical position and weather conditions of all regional capitals of Italy. The results show that the cities with high irradiance/temperature have positive NPV and high investment values. On the other hand, while most cities have negative NPV, the inclusion of the flexibility in investment decisions gives additional value to the project, making the ENPV positive and implying an attractive investment opportunity with the possibility of delaying the project. We also propose a sensitivity analysis that shows how the real option value changes when incentive policies of the government become more attractive. This paper contributes to the existing literature in the way of considering financial, meteorological/geographical, and political factors to valuate PV investment.

The Value of Flexibility at Global Airlines: Real Options for EDW and CRM

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Mark Jeffery ◽  
Chris Rzymski ◽  
Sandeep Shah ◽  
Robert J. Sweeney
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Monte Carlo Analysis ◽  
Active Management ◽  
Growth Options ◽  
Option Value ◽  
Real Options Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Option Value

Technology projects are inherently risky; research shows that large IT projects succeed as originally planned only 28 percent of the time. Building flexibility, or real options, into a project can help manage this risk. Furthermore, the management flexibility of options has value, as the downside risk is reduced and the upside is increased. The case is based upon real options analysis for an enterprise data warehouse (EDW) and analytic customer relationship management (CRM) program at a major U.S. firm. The firm has been disguised as Global Airlines for confidentiality reasons. The data mart consolidation or EDW marginally meets the hurdle rate for the firm as analyzed using a traditional net present value (NPV) analysis. However, different tactical deployment strategies help mitigate the risk of the project by building options into the project, and the traditional NPV is expanded by the real option value. Students analyze the different deployment strategies using a binomial model compound option Excel macro, and calculate the volatility using Monte Carlo analysis in Excel. A step-by-step tutorial is provided to teach students how to accomplish the real options analysis for a simplified project, and this tutorial is easily generalized by students to the case scenario. In addition to the tactical options, the case also has the strategic growth option of analytic CRM. Students must therefore analyze both the tactical and strategic growth options and make a management recommendation on funding the project and also recommend an optimal deployment strategy to manage the project risk.The case teaches real options for technology projects. Students learn how to calculate real option values, where the key input of volatility is obtained by Monte Carlo analysis in Excel. Students also learn that the real option value is “real,” resulting from active management mitigating the risk of the project and improving the upside. Most important, students understand the difference between tactical vs. strategic growth options and the important management issues to consider.

scholarly journals The Appraisal of Assets’ Fair Value Using the Real Options Technique

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-76
Author(s):  
A. Gulabyan
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Asset Valuation ◽  
The Real ◽  
Traditional System ◽  
Real Options Valuation ◽  
Real Option Approach

The goal of this paper is to analyse and systematise the possible approaches to real options valuation, especially when considering the practical aspects of their application in real-life valuation problems. Therefore, the paper sets the following tasks: To outline the concept of fair value and analyse the traditional approaches to its calculation in the context of asset valuation To define the real-option approach to fair value estimation and analyse its theoretical background To determine the role of the real options approach in the traditional system of valuation techniques To analyse the practical aspects of their application in valuation problems considering the corresponding examples To provide the real-life example of this technique applied in current market conditions using the recent data. The object of this research is the option pricing models, and the subject is their application in estimation of real options embedded in corporate valuations, particularly considering the side.

scholarly journals The Method of Real Options in the Evaluation of Strategic and Investment Decisions

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 41-45
Author(s):  
Гераськина ◽  
A. Geraskina
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Option Price ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Important Addition ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow Method

The method of real options is one of the new approaches to estimate investment projects’ cost and it is an important addition to discounted cash flow method. Real option significantly increases the efficiency of the project due to the possibility of decision-making during its implementation. This aspect is especially important in unstable environmental conditions. The main differences between the financial and real options are presented. The differences of valuation of investment projects by the real options method and net present value are examined. The article presents the types of real options, as well as the methods of calculating the option price.

Playing at Acquisitions

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Smit ◽  
Thras Moraitis
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Competitive Dynamics ◽  
Uncertain Environments ◽  
Real Option Valuation ◽  
Acquisition Strategies ◽  
Risky Investment ◽  
Acquisition Strategy ◽  
Strategy Design

It is widely accepted that a large proportion of acquisition strategies fail to deliver the expected value. Globalizing markets characterized by growing uncertainty, together with the advent of new competitors, are further complicating the task of valuing acquisitions. Too often, managers rely on flawed valuation models or their intuition and experience when making risky investment decisions, exposing their companies to potentially costly pitfalls. This book provides managers with a powerful methodology for designing and executing successful acquisition strategies. The book tackles the myriad executive biases that infect decision making at every stage of the acquisition process, and the inadequacy of current valuation approaches to help mitigate these biases and more realistically represent value in uncertain environments. Bringing together the latest advances in behavioral finance, real option valuation, and game theory, this book explains how to express acquisition strategies as sets of real options, explicitly introducing uncertainty and future optionality into acquisition strategy design. It shows how to incorporate the competitive dynamics that exist in different acquisition contexts, acknowledge and even embrace uncertainty, identify the value of the real options embedded in targets, and more. Rooted in economic theory and featuring numerous real-world case studies, the book will enhance the ability of CEOs and their teams to derive value from their acquisition strategies, and is also an ideal resource for researchers and MBAs.

scholarly journals Zur kapitalwertorientierten Bewertung (nicht nur) von immateriellen Vermögenswerten in der internationalen Rechnungslegung

2020 ◽  
Vol 72 (3) ◽  
pp. 371-396
Author(s):  
Andreas Schüler
Keyword(s):  
Peer Group ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Average Return ◽  
Adjusted Present Value

Zusammenfassung Der Beitrag ist der Bewertung (nicht nur) immaterieller Vermögenswerte mit kapitalwertorientierten Verfahren in der internationalen Rechnungslegung gewidmet. Unter der Annahme, dass das Problem der Zuordnung von Zahlungsüberschüssen zu einzelnen Vermögenswerten bzw. Gruppen von Vermögenswerten (Assets) gelöst ist, wird insbesondere die Wahl des kapitalwertorientierten Bewertungsverfahrens und die Ermittlung der zugehörigen Diskontierungssätze diskutiert. Es werden Empfehlungen zur Abbildung des Investitionsrisikos und der Finanzierung bei der Bewertung von Vermögenswerten unter Berücksichtigung der Marktwertadditivität erarbeitet. Es wird gezeigt, dass der in der Praxis beliebte WACC-Ansatz dafür häufig weniger geeignet ist als der Adjusted-Present-Value (APV) -Ansatz. Dieser sollte soweit es die Datenlage zulässt, Bottom-up ausgefüllt werden. Sofern auf die Daten als vergleichbar eingestufter Unternehmen (Peer Group) zurückgegriffen wird, muss die Vergleichbarkeit im ersten Schritt hinsichtlich des Investitionsrisikos gegeben sein, um so die Eigenkapitalkosten bei Eigenfinanzierung vermögenswertspezifisch zu schätzen. Weitere pragmatische Lösungsansätze, wie Top-down erfolgende Zu- oder Abschläge zum bzw. vom unternehmensweiten WACC oder der sog. WARA (Weighted Average Return on Assets) -Ansatz, werden hinsichtlich der implizierten Fremdkapital- und Wertzuordnungen sowie hinsichtlich der Einhaltung des Marktwertadditivitätsprinzips kritisch gewürdigt.

An R&D Project Dealing with Mechanical Bits and Pieces in Real Option Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 472-475 ◽  
pp. 583-586
Author(s):  
Hua Luo ◽  
Ming Zi Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Tree ◽  
Option Pricing ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Practical Case ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Real Option Analysis ◽  
Real Options Valuation ◽  
Option Pricing Model

The goal of this paper is to study the R&D project under incomplete information. We extend the multi-step quadrinomial option pricing model through a practical case, which is the R&D project of the machinery to deal with mechanical bits and pieces. We pricing the real options valuation (ROV) of the project and show a decision tree, which can provide managers flexible decisions to analyze technology and market uncertainty.

scholarly journals The Valuation of Geothermal Power Projects in Indonesia Using Real Options Valuation

2018 ◽  
Vol 248 ◽  
pp. 03004
Author(s):  
Reza A. Bilqist ◽  
M. Dachyar ◽  
Farizal
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Production Volume ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Strategic Option ◽  
Real Options Valuation ◽  
Valuation Process ◽  
Geothermal Power ◽  
Options Valuation

Geothermal power project should be carefully evaluated, because not only the project is large-scale and high-risk, but also huge investments are needed to make the project profitable. The purpose of this study is to evaluate and analyze the present value of the geothermal power plant projects in Indonesia using net present value and real options valuation approach to obtain better project value that indicates profitable investments. Project value determined based on Net Present Value (NPV). The Monte Carlo Simulation calculated NPV based on discount rate, production volume, and operation and maintenance (O&M) cost. The risk of the project defined with 3 scenarios to obtain NPV and calculate Expected Net Present Value (ENPV). The result of this study showed Real Options Valuation obtained the highest project value indicating a higher return of the project that was previously undervalued using NPV and ENPV. Real Options Valuation approach improved the project value by incorporating scenario analysis and strategic option in the valuation process.

scholarly journals Valuation of Interacting Time-to-Build and Growth Real Options in Infrastructure Investments

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olubanjo Michael Adetunji ◽  
Akintola Amos Owolabi
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Growth Options ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Real Options Approach ◽  
Growth Option ◽  
Time To Build ◽  
Infrastructure Project ◽  
Infrastructure Investments

This paper argues that real options approach presents a better valuation approach for valuing infrastructure investments when compared to traditional discounted cash flow approach. Managerial flexibilities, in various forms of real options, can be incorporated into infrastructure projects to expand the projects’ values. The paper identifies two key types of real options present in infrastructure investments as time-to-build and growth options and extends an earlier developed closed-form option valuation formula to value these options. The paper uses a numerical case of investment in railroad infrastructure project and shows that both types of real options, when embedded in infrastructure projects, add values to the projects. It however shows that the value of growth option is far more than the value of time-to-build option as growth options create opportunities for follow-on investments. It also shows that when the two options are present in an infrastructure investment, the time-to-build real option interacts with the growth option to reduce the latter’s value.

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