Playing at Acquisitions

Author(s):  
Han Smit ◽  
Thras Moraitis

It is widely accepted that a large proportion of acquisition strategies fail to deliver the expected value. Globalizing markets characterized by growing uncertainty, together with the advent of new competitors, are further complicating the task of valuing acquisitions. Too often, managers rely on flawed valuation models or their intuition and experience when making risky investment decisions, exposing their companies to potentially costly pitfalls. This book provides managers with a powerful methodology for designing and executing successful acquisition strategies. The book tackles the myriad executive biases that infect decision making at every stage of the acquisition process, and the inadequacy of current valuation approaches to help mitigate these biases and more realistically represent value in uncertain environments. Bringing together the latest advances in behavioral finance, real option valuation, and game theory, this book explains how to express acquisition strategies as sets of real options, explicitly introducing uncertainty and future optionality into acquisition strategy design. It shows how to incorporate the competitive dynamics that exist in different acquisition contexts, acknowledge and even embrace uncertainty, identify the value of the real options embedded in targets, and more. Rooted in economic theory and featuring numerous real-world case studies, the book will enhance the ability of CEOs and their teams to derive value from their acquisition strategies, and is also an ideal resource for researchers and MBAs.

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 3866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sungchul Kim ◽  
Ronald Giachetti ◽  
Sangsung Park

For sustainable defense management, it is essential to acquire weapons systems that can adapt to future uncertain threats and, at the same time, to invest efficiently with limited budgets. Economic analysis is used to examine the costs, benefits and uncertainties of alternatives. In particular, the use of the real options valuation, which is one of the methodologies of economic analysis, is expanding. The real options valuation has shown effectiveness across various industries to evaluate investment strategies. In this paper, we apply the real options valuation to the weapon systems development case and confirm its usefulness. Unlike previous studies, the real option valuation methodology is applied retroactively to the finished project, compared to existing research mainly applying real options to value research and development (R&D) without knowing how the project completed. We use the following procedure. (1) Define the uncertainties of the three acquisition alternatives (development, technology adoption, and purchase). (2) Calculate the benefits of the three acquisition alternatives with expected and actual data without uncertainties. (3) Model the decision tree without options and with options. (4) Analyze and compare results with benefit and benefit cost ratio. We analyzed the Korea K2 tank powerpack development case by applying real options. We could see that the real options could have reduced the risk of losses when the development risk is high and market uncertainty exists. From the case study of the development of the powerpack, we learned the following three lessons. First, we reaffirmed the importance of objective value analysis in project decision making. Second, we need to analyze the project value continuously and revise the acquisition strategy accordingly. Third, the effectiveness of the real options valuation was confirmed for sustainable defense management. In addition, the real option analysis data acquired from similar finished projects can be useful for establishing a new product acquisition strategy and, at every decision-making phase, the real option evaluation should be continuously performed with updated information. In this paper, we first perform real option valuation of finished weapon systems in the Korean defense field. This paper is valuable in establishing a rational methodology for applying economic analysis to weapon system acquisition projects.


2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwabena Mintah ◽  
David Higgins ◽  
Judith Callanan

Purpose Uncertainties in residential property investment performance require that real estate assets are designed in a flexible manner to respond to impacts of market dynamics. Though estimating the cost of flexibility is straightforward, assessing the economic value of flexibility is not. The purpose of this study is to explore the potential practical application of real option analysis to determine the economic value of a switching output flexibility embedded in a residential property investment in Australia. The study involves the exploration of an optimal strategy for investment in a residential development through real option analysis and valuation of a mixed use investment. Design/methodology/approach The real option valuation model developed by McDonald and Siegel (1986) is adopted for the evaluation because the switching output flexibility is likened to a perpetual American call option with dividend payout. Findings Through real option analysis, the economic value of switching output flexibility of the mixed use building was determined to be higher than the initial upfront costs. Moreover, a payoff of about $4million was determined to be the value of the switching output flexibility, therefore justifying upfront investments in flexibility as an uncertainty and risk management tool. Practical implications This application is an important demonstration of the practical use of options pricing techniques (real options analysis) and delivers further evidence needed to support the adoption of real option valuation in practice. Flexibility can also enhance risks and uncertainty management in residential property investment better than the adjustment of discount rates. Originality/value There is limited evidence on the use of real options techniques for the valuation of switching output flexibility in practice, and this comes as an original application; both the case study and data are all initial applications of switching flexibility in the Australian property market.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwabena Mintah ◽  
David Higgins ◽  
Judith Callanan ◽  
Ron Wakefield

Purpose Real option valuation is capable of accounting for uncertainties in residential development projects but still lacks practical adoption due to limited evidence to support application of the theory in practice. The purpose of this paper is to use option valuation to value staging option embedded in residential projects and compare with results from DCF to determine which of the two methods delivers superior results. Design/methodology/approach The fuzzy payoff method (FPOM), a real options model that uses scenario planning approach to generate a range of figures, from which a single-numerical value is computed for decision-making. Findings The results showed that the use of a range of figures was able to represent uncertainties to a higher degree of accuracy than the static DCF. As a result, the FPOM was able to capture about 3 per cent of the value of the project that was missed by the DCF. The staging option offers an opportunity to abandon unprofitable phases of a project, thereby limiting downside losses. Thus, real option models are practically applicable to cases in property sector. Practical implications Residential property developers must consider flexibility in financial feasibility evaluation of development because of the embedded value in uncertain property projects. It is important to account for optionality in financial evaluation of property projects for value maximisation. Originality/value The FPOM has been used for the first time to evaluate a horizontal phasing of a residential development project.


Matematika ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramdhan Fazrianto Suwarman

Abstract. Real options are one of the most interesting research topics in Finance since 1977 Stewart C. Myers from MIT Sloan School of Management published his pioneering article on this subject in the Journal of Financial Economics. Real options are techniques for supporting capital budgeting decisions that adapt techniques developed for financial securities options. The purpose of using this real option is to capture the options contained in projects that cannot be captured by the discounted cash flow model which operates as a basic framework for almost all financial analyzes. The process of valuing real options will be complemented by the stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility to better capture the flexibility and volatility of the existing economic and financial situation. The valuation will use a Monte Carlo simulation with the MATLAB programming language on crude oil data from the North Sea oil field. Data were obtained from the thesis of Charlie Grafström and Leo Lundquist with the title "Real Option Valuation vs. DCF Evaluation – An Application to a North Sea oilfield".Keyword: real options, stochastic interest rate model, stochastic volatility model, simulation


Author(s):  
Han Smit ◽  
Thras Moraitis

Valuing uncertainty in strategy requires the development of quantitative models reflecting the conceptual options games view on strategy. The application of fresh ideas based on two major strands in the existing literature—real options and game theory—has attracted increased interest, both to academia and to acquisition strategy practitioners. Despite the mathematical elegance of option game models, the key metrics and tools for implementation have not yet been fully developed, especially with regard to providing relevant managerial guidance. This chapter presents an in-depth examination of Xstrata's Falconbridge acquisition through option and game lenses in order to provide insights into the implementation of these new and effective quantitative real option models in practice, as well as pointing out their limitations.


2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jussi Vimpari ◽  
Seppo Junnila

Purpose – The purpose of this study is first to evaluate whether real options analysis (ROA) is suitable for valuing green building certificates, and second to calculate the real option value of a green certificate in a typical office building setting. Green buildings are demonstrated as one of the most profitable climate mitigation actions. However, no consensus exists among industry professionals about how green buildings and specifically green building certificates should be valued. Design/methodology/approach – The research design of the study involves a theoretical part and an empirical part. In the theoretical part, option characteristics of green building certificates are identified and a contemporary real option valuation method is proposed for application. In the empirical part, the application is demonstrated in an embedded multiple case study design. Two different building cases (with and without green certificate) with eight independent cash flow valuations by eight industry professionals are used as data set for eight valuation case studies and analyses. Additionally, cross-case analysis is executed for strengthening the analysis. Findings – The paper finds that green certificates have several characteristics similar to real options and supports the idea of using ROA in valuing a green certificate. The paper also explains how option pricing theory and discounted cash flow (DCF) method deal with uncertainty and what shortcomings of DCF could be overcome by ROA. The results show that a mean real option value of 985,000 (or 8.8 per cent premium to the mean property value) was found for a Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design Platinum certificate in the Finnish property market. The main finding of the paper suggests that the contemporary real option valuation methods are appropriate to assess the monetary value and the uncertainty of a green building certificate. Originality/value – This is the first study to argue that option-pricing theory can be used for valuing green building certificates. The identification of the option characteristics of green building certificates and demonstration of the ROA in an empirical case makes questions whether the current mainstream investment analysis approaches are the most suitable methods for valuing green building certificates.


2014 ◽  
pp. 264-270
Author(s):  
Marian Turek ◽  
Adam Sojda

The article presents the use of real options in determination of mining enterprise value. The value estimation is based on discounted cash flow method. The adoption of fuzzy numbers allows introducing a risk aspect to the known method of determination of enterprise value. A classic discounted cash flow method uses one scenario on the basis of which one value is determined. The method presented is grounded on three scenarios: optimistic, the most probable, pessimistic. On this basis the values defining a fuzzy number are indicated. Algorithm of this defuzzification, based on the idea of real options enables indicating a concrete value.


2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 236-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Loukianova ◽  
Egor Nikulin ◽  
Andrey Vedernikov

The purpose of the current paper is to elaborate the model for assessing cumulative synergetic effect in M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions) deals on the basis of a real options approach. The majority of papers on the synergetic effects of M&A deals typically focus on a particular type of synergy, while the current paper proposes a model that accounts for the cumulative simultaneous effect of different types of operating and financial synergies. The methodology of our research is loosely based on Datar-Mathews real option valuation model, which is flexible and intuitive for practitioners. Formulae for assessing eight types of synergy typically arising from M&A deals are developed. They are integrated into a single model to assess their cumulative effect on the M&A deal using a simulation modelling approach. The method was used ex post to find synergy values in two recent M&A deals in the pharmaceutical industry, and produced sound results. The proposed approach to value target companies could be used by firms before an M&A deal in the due diligence process. Using this tool a company can build a bidding strategy and define the maximum premium it can pay for the target.


Author(s):  
Han Smit ◽  
Thras Moraitis

This chapter discusses the application of the top-down and bottom-up duality of the real option frameworks to valuing serial acquisitions. It develops the market-based present value of growth options (PVGO) method into a framework that directly connects serial acquisition strategy to value creation on financial markets, and so helps to explain the full market value of companies in consolidating industries. In addition, in a bottom-up approach, it considers acquisitions as portfolios of interrelating acquisition options, each stage being an option on the next, which can develop the firm's asset base dynamically and opportunistically. This dual approach to value acquisition programs is called the market method for acquisitions.


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