Self-Monitoring, US Presidents, and International Crises

2018 ◽  
pp. 67-102
Author(s):  
Keren Yarhi-Milo
Keyword(s):  
International Conflict ◽  
The Self ◽  
International Crises ◽  
Self Monitoring ◽  
Interstate Disputes ◽  
Militarized Interstate Disputes

This chapter looks at original surveys of sixty-eight presidential historians on the president each had studied in depth. The historians’ survey suggests that American presidents exhibit variation in their self-monitoring dispositions. The chapter then leverages this variation to test statistically whether US presidents’ behavior during international crises is consistent with the expectations of the theory presented in this book. The self-monitoring disposition of a US president is a significant predictor of his likelihood of employing and initiating military instruments to demonstrate resolve during international conflict. Low self-monitor presidents not only engage in less militarized interstate disputes, but they are also significantly less likely to initiate such disputes, compared to high self-monitor presidents. The chapter also presents findings indicating that high self-monitor presidents are more likely to prevail in militarized interstate disputes compared to their low self-monitor counterparts.

Same Evidences, Different Interpretations – A Comparison of the Conflict Index between the Interstate Dyadic Events Data and Militarized Interstate Disputes Data in Peace-Conflict Models

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 347-372
Author(s):  
Scott Y. Lin ◽  
Carlos Seiglie
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Interstate Disputes ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Events Data ◽  
Militarized Interstate Disputes

AbstractStudying the determinants of international conflict, researchers have found a series of influential variables, but few have addressed the robustness of the results to changes in the definition of the dependent variable, conflict. The two main sources for operationalizing conflict in empirical work are data on militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) and events data. In this paper, we find that a χ2-test indicates a correlation between events data and MIDs data. However, detailed regression analysis indicates that there are some contradictory findings depending on whether we use events data as opposed to MIDs data to measure conflict.

Partisanship, Militarized International Conflict, and Electoral Support for the Incumbent

2017 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 172-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shane P. Singh ◽  
Jaroslav Tir
Keyword(s):  
Political Behavior ◽  
Comparative Politics ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Interstate Disputes ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Militarized Interstate Disputes

Comparative politics scholarship often neglects to consider how militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) shape political behavior. In this project, we advance an argument that considers voter responses to international conflict at the individual level. In particular, we consider how the well-known conditioning effects of partisanship manifest in relation to militarized international conflict. Examining individual- and macro-level data across ninety-seven elections in forty-two countries over the 1996–2011 period, we find consistent evidence of militarized conflict impacting vote choice. This relationship is, however, moderated by partisanship, conflict side (initiator or target), and conflict hostility level. Among non-copartisan voters, the incumbent benefits the most electorally from initiating low-hostility MIDs or when the country is a target of a high-hostility MID; the opposite scenarios (initiator of a high-hostility MID or target of a low-hostility MID) lead to punishment among this voter group. Copartisans, meanwhile, tend to either maintain or intensify their support in most scenarios we examine; when a country is targeted in a low-hostility MID, copartisan support erodes mildly.

scholarly journals Oil and Revolutionary Governments: Fuel for International Conflict

2010 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 661-694 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff D. Colgan
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Data ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
International Peace ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Conventional View ◽  
Interstate Disputes ◽  
Peace And Security ◽  
Foreign Policies ◽  
Militarized Interstate Disputes ◽  
Competition For Resources

AbstractOil-exporting states, or petrostates, engage in militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) at a much higher rate on average than nonpetrostates. Why is this so? Further, what explains the variation among the petrostates in adopting aggressive foreign policies and engaging in MIDs on that basis? This article develops a theory that proposes that revolutionary petrostates have a higher propensity to launch MIDs than comparable nonpetrostates. This theory is tested with statistical analysis using a new quantitative data set that identifies revolutionary governments in the period 1945–2001. The results show that petro-revolutionary governments constitute a special threat to international peace and security. This evidence of resource-backed aggression challenges the conventional view of petrostates as the targets of international competition for resources.

Media Openness, Democracy and Militarized Interstate Disputes

2006 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
SEUNG-WHAN CHOI ◽  
PATRICK JAMES
Keyword(s):  
International Organizations ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
World Politics ◽  
Political Life ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Interstate Disputes ◽  
Time Series Dataset ◽  
Joint Membership ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Militarized Interstate Disputes

Mass media play a central role in political life. Media not only transfer information; they also facilitate communication. These functions may ameliorate conflict, crisis and war in world politics. Accordingly, this study looks into the impact of media openness on international conflict. Based on a cross-sectional, time-series dataset for interstate dyads from 1950 to 1992, logistic regression analysis shows that an indicator of media openness has a strong dampening effect on Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) and fatal MIDs. Moreover, this connection is significant even in the presence of a composite indicator of democracy (that measures its institutional attributes using the Polity data), economic interdependence and joint membership in international organizations. The results suggest that the successful neo-Kantian triad is complemented effectively by the presence of media openness.

Status Deficits and War

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Renshon
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
The United States ◽  
Interstate Conflict ◽  
Reference Groups ◽  
Unique Data ◽  
Interstate Disputes ◽  
Large N ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Militarized Interstate Disputes

This chapter explores the relationship between status deficits and international conflict using empirical evidence drawn from a large-N statistical analysis of the link between status dissatisfaction and war at several degrees of intensity (ranging from crises to interstate conflict). It first considers whether conflict serves as a status-altering event before discussing the connection of status deficits to initiation of war and militarized interstate disputes. It also presents unique data on which comparisons are most salient in motivating international conflict (for example, who powerful states compare themselves to, or whether South Africa and the United States are likely to compare themselves to similar groups of countries. The chapter shows that the types of comparisons that are made—who the “reference groups” are—have important implications for how status concerns are manifested in international politics.

Domestic uncertainty, third-party resolve, and international conflict

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 445-459 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew DiLorenzo ◽  
Bryan Rooney
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
Third Parties ◽  
Third Party ◽  
The Third ◽  
Interstate Disputes ◽  
Democratic State ◽  
The Third Party ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Militarized Interstate Disputes

Uncertainty about resolve is a well-established rationalist explanation for war. In addition to estimating the resolve of immediate rivals, leaders choose their actions in a crisis based on expectations about how third parties will respond. We argue that leaders will become more likely to develop inconsistent estimates of rivals’ relative capabilities and resolve – and thus will become more likely to fight – when domestic political changes occur in states that are allied with an opponent. We also consider how the relationship between conflict in rivalries and third-party domestic change depends on domestic political institutions in the third party. We argue that this effect should only hold when a challenger does not also share an alliance with the third party, and that the effect should be strongest when the third party is a non-democratic state. We test our theory using a dataset of changes in leaders’ domestic supporting coalitions and data on militarized interstate disputes from 1920 to 2001. Consistent with our hypotheses, we find that the likelihood of conflict increases in rivalries only when domestic coalition changes occur in states that share an alliance with only one member of a rivalry, and that this effect is strongest and most consistent for non-democratic third parties.

Oil, Revolution, and International Conflict: A Toxic Mix

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (03) ◽  
pp. 613
Author(s):  
Jeff Colgan
Keyword(s):  
International Conflict ◽  
World Politics ◽  
Global Markets ◽  
Contemporary World ◽  
Interstate Disputes ◽  
Empirical Fact ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Militarized Interstate Disputes

What is the relationship between oil and international conflict? In an era of increased dependence on, and greater volatility within, global markets for oil and energy, this question is central to understanding contemporary world politics. It is an empirical fact that petrostates—defined as states that have at least 10% of GDP derived from oil exports—are more prone to international conflict than non-petrostates. Indeed, in the period 1965–2001, petrostates engaged in militarized interstate disputes at roughly twice the rate of non-petrostates, on average. What explains this propensity?

Jimmy Carter and the Crises of the 1970s

2018 ◽  
pp. 121-171
Author(s):  
Keren Yarhi-Milo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Self ◽  
Jimmy Carter ◽  
International Crises ◽  
Self Monitoring ◽  
Secondary Literature ◽  
Primary Documents

This chapter examines Jimmy Carter and several of the international crises he faced during his presidency that many observers argue risked the United States' reputation for resolve. Unlike those of most of his predecessors or successors, Carter's discourse and policies seem to show that he was not motivated by projecting resolve for the sake of reassuring allies or intimidating adversaries. In fact, evidence from primary documents reveals that Carter's behavior during international crises corresponds closely to the reputation critic ideal-type. The chapter then reinforces the classification of Carter as a reputation critic using additional qualitative evidence in the form of Carter's personal diary and prepresidential speeches, memoirs written by his advisors, and other secondary literature. It also uses available biographical evidence to illuminate the self-monitoring tendencies of Carter's closest advisors: National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and Secretary of State Cyrus Vance.

The Effect of Interactive Pedometer with New Algorithm on 10,000 Step Goal Attainments

2007 ◽  
Vol 345-346 ◽  
pp. 873-876
Author(s):  
Jin Oh Lee ◽  
Min Soo Kang ◽  
Jeong Hun Shin ◽  
Kil Sung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Health Status ◽  
Objective Assessment ◽  
The Self ◽  
Self Monitoring ◽  
Systematic Monitoring ◽  
Physical Activity Interventions ◽  
Minimal Contact ◽  
Feedback Algorithm ◽  
Overall Health Status

The pedometer, an objective assessment of measuring step counts, has often been used to motivate individuals to increase their ambulatory physical activity. Minimal contact pedometer-based intervention (MCPBI) is gaining in popularity because they are simple and inexpensive. MCPBI is based on self-monitoring by the participants; however, one limitation of using the self-monitoring approach was the participant attrition (i.e., dropout), which makes it difficult to achieve the successful intervention. A new algorithm for pedometer-based intervention, the systematic-monitoring based on conditional feedback, was designed to increase awareness and allow participants to more successfully attain their step goals. Thus, the purpose of this study was to examine the effect of the systematic-monitoring based on conditional feedback algorithm on 10,000 step goal attainments. The study result can be used to design more comprehensive pedometer-based physical activity interventions to increase individuals’ overall health status.

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