scholarly journals Long-term Labour Shortage. The Economic Impact of Population Transition and Post-Industrialism on the OECD Countries: the Nordic Case

2009 ◽  
pp. 123-136
Author(s):  
Perttu Salmenhaara

This paper presents a survey of results about studies on ageing. The data is collected from population projections by the United Nations, OECD, the European Union and the Eurostat.The research question is how population ageing affects the percentage of the working age population in the OECD. Special focus countries are the Nordic countries. The method is to collect together comparable data from these previous studies. The results imply that from 2005 to 2050 the number of the elderly in relation to the working-age population is projected to increase radically. Most advanced national economies are likely to have problems in providing elderly care services and pensions. In addition, post-industrialisation and ethnic discrimination add to the problem by excluding a fair share of the working-age population from the labour market.

2003 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 306-313 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Wancata ◽  
M. Musalek ◽  
R. Alexandrowicz ◽  
M. Krautgartner

AbstractSeveral authors have pointed out that in the next few decades dementia will affect a considerably increasing number of the elderly. To our knowledge there exist no calculations of the number of demented persons for the whole European region. We made calculations on the number of dementia cases for the period 2000–2050 based on the population projections of the United Nations. For this purpose, we used the results of several meta-analyses of epidemiological studies. The number of prevalent dementia cases in the year 2000 was 7.1 million. Within the next 50 years, this number will rise to about 16.2 million dementia sufferers. The number of new dementia cases per year will increase from about 1.9 million in the year 2000 to about 4.1 million in the year 2050. Contrarily, the working-age population will considerably decrease during the next 50 years. In the year 2000, 7.1 million dementia cases faced 493 million persons in working-age. This equals a ratio of 69.4 persons in working-age per one demented person. Until the year 2050, this ratio will decrease to only 21.1. Thus, the financial and emotional burden placed by dementia on the working-age population will markedly rise.


2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucia Leporatti ◽  
Marcello Montefiori

Abstract The increasing life expectancy poses challenges on the future sustainability of long-term care services that today strongly depend on informal care provided within the family by working age children. Ongoing social changes are likely to weaken the informal provision of care. The paper derives optimal policies to help the policy-maker to choose innovative and sustainable solutions to support home care, taking into account the severity of health condition and the different opportunity costs of carers. Drawing inspiration from real world policies, the suitable policy combines lump-sum transfers, paid permissions from work and in-kind provisions. In some circumstances, benefits can favour higher rather than lower income individuals. In the context of information asymmetry, the implementation of the second-best outcome requires the level of care of the most subsidized households’ to be forced towards certain targets to avoid adverse selection.


2021 ◽  
pp. 106591292110160
Author(s):  
Yesola Kweon ◽  
ByeongHwa Choi

Deservingness theory contends that spending on the elderly is widely supported across age groups because, unlike other groups such as immigrants or the unemployed, senior citizens are perceived as morally worthy of social aid. However, through a survey experiment in Japan, a prototypical aging society, this study shows that in a state with a large population of senior citizens, there is a significant age gap in policy preferences with the working-age population demonstrating stronger opposition to government support for the elderly. To induce empathetic policy attitudes toward the elderly, therefore, effective issue framing is necessary. However, emphasizing economic need is not enough; it is only when both the elderly’s economic need and effort to work are emphasized that we see a positive attitudinal change among the working-age population. In addition, we find that the economically secure are more sensitive to senior citizens’ economic need and effort to work in determining their policy support. By contrast, the economically insecure exhibit unqualified support for the elderly. These findings demonstrate that deservingness for the elderly is not innate, but is driven by conditional altruism. Furthermore, our work emphasizes the importance of issue framing in generating intergenerational solidarity in a rapidly aging society.


2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-33
Author(s):  
Margarita Gedvilaitė-Kordušienė

The paper addresses the questions of demographic ageing at the beginning of the 21st century and the attitudes about who should be responsible for the elderly care in Lithuania. The analysis of age structure changes revealed three ways of demographic ageing: ‘from below’ (the youngest part of the population is decreasing), ‘from above’ (the oldest part of the population is increasing), and decrease of the young working-age population. The analysis of ageing in Lithuania in the context of the EU revealed that Lithuania has moved from the group of the demographically youngest countries to the group of the oldest ones. This has happened in one decade and illustrates rapid ageing in Lithuania. Within such context, the question “Who should be responsible for the elderly care?” is of particular importance. Based on the second wave of the Generations and Gender Survey (conducted in 2009), the responses who should take care of the elderly are contradictory. The biggest part of respondents is in favour of the division of responsibilities for the elderly care between family and society. The same part of respondents considers this to be family responsibility. Meanwhile, financial support is mainly considered to be the responsibility of the society. The analysis of filial responsibilities for elderly parents revealed a high level of normative solidarity. Most respondents agree with the statement where the support type for elderly parents is not defined (i.e. that children should take responsibility for caring for their parents when parents are in need). When the types of support are defined, the respondents are also likely to agree (i.e. children ought to provide financial help for their parents when their parents are having financial difficulties; children should have their parents to live with them when parents can no longer look after themselves). Less agreement was found on the statement requiring the reorganisation of children’s lives in order to fulfil filial responsibilities (i.e. that children should adjust their working lives to the needs of their parents) and on the statement measuring gender division in care provision for elderly parents (i.e. when parents are in need, daughters should take more caring responsibility than sons). The differences in attitudes between children’s, parents’ and grandparents’ generations were not statistically significant. The logistic regressions revealed that significant predictors enhancing the chances of agreement on filial responsibilities are respondents’ gender, age, partnership and occupational statuses and type of residential area.


2021 ◽  
Vol 275 ◽  
pp. 03003
Author(s):  
Yi Ding ◽  
Zhe Zhang ◽  
Meiyun Yang ◽  
Fengqi Sun

This research focuses on a service acquisition mode for parents in urban separated families of China to promote the popularization of elderly care services in Internet economy. Based on interviews and questionnaires, authors find the pain point of the elderly care service acquisition mode and propose a tripartite participatory mode. Using this new service acquisition mode, adult children can play an assistant role with a smartphone-based service purchase platform. Next, in order to determine what services should be provided priorly on the platform, an empirical study based on questionnaires and KANO model is carried out to screen a propriate services items. Through the innovation of new elderly care service acquisition mode, more practitioners are supposed to expands their business effectively in aging market, and to play an ever more active role in the growth of Internet economy.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (22) ◽  
pp. 9459
Author(s):  
Manuela A. de Paz-Báñez ◽  
María José Asensio-Coto ◽  
Celia Sánchez-López ◽  
María-Teresa Aceytuno

The objective of this article is to determine, as conclusively as possible, if the implementation of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) would lead to a significant reduction in the working age population labour supply. If this were true, implementation of a UBI may not be sustainable. To do this, we will compile empirical evidence from studies over the last few decades on the effects of implementation of a UBI on employment. We apply the PRISMA methodology to better judge their validity, which ensures maximum reliability of the results by avoiding biases and making the work reproducible. Given that the methodologies used in these studies are diverse, they are reviewed to contextualize the results taking into account the possible limitations detected in these methodologies. While many authors have been writing about this issue citing experiences or experiments, the added value of this article is that it performs a systematic review following a widely tested scientific methodology. Over 1200 documents that discuss the UBI/employment relationship have been reviewed. We found a total of 50 empirical cases, of which 18 were selected, and 38 studies with contrasted empirical evidence on this relationship. The results speak for themselves: Despite a detailed search, we have not found any evidence of a significant reduction in labour supply. Instead, we found evidence that labour supply increases globally among adults, men and women, young and old, and the existence of some insignificant and functional reductions to the system such as a decrease in workers from the following categories: Children, the elderly, the sick, those with disabilities, women with young children to look after, or young people who continued studying. These reductions do not reduce the overall supply since it is largely offset by increased supply from other members of the community.


Author(s):  
Ram SriRamaratnam ◽  
Julian Williams ◽  
Xintao Zhao

Ageing of the work force in New Zealand is an important determinant of labour market dynamics. In addition to the median age and the proportion of workers in retirement age, the nature of occupations and health and financial security are also important determinants of participation and retirement.The baby boom generation has approached their retirement years and the age structure of the working age population has also significantly altered. Consequently, the retirement of older workers is expected to make-up an important source of new job openings over the coming decades.Estimating and forecasting likely future retirement rates by occupational groups is of considerable interest, and provides further insights into labour market dynamics.In this study, recent historical retirement rates for broad (3-digit) ANZSCO occupational groups were derived using an internationally accepted methodology known as the cohort component method, adapted to allow for some participation by older age groups. Occupational employment data by age extracted from the recently released 2013 Census was analysed along with the corresponding data from the 2006 Census to estimate the average retirement rates over the 2006-13 period. These rates are then used to project future retirement rates over the 2013-20 period for the same broad occupational groups. Projections were based on the Working Age Population projections for age groups and their associated participation rates.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Filzah Md Isa ◽  
Shaista Noor ◽  
Goh Wei Wei ◽  
Sharifah Diyana Binti Syed Hussain ◽  
Hairunnisa Mohamad Ibrahim ◽  
...  

Purpose Malaysia is considered to be a relatively young country as compared to other older countries such as Japan, China and Australia in terms of the ageing population. However, until 2035, Malaysia will be in the ageing group countries as 15% of the entire population will be above 60 years of age. This situation is quite alarming as more and more ageing care centres will be required to fulfill the ongoing demands of the ageing population. The elderly care centres in Malaysia are categorised as public (sponsored by the government), private, and charity based that comes under religious centres. Currently, there are about 365 registered elderly care centres working in the main states of Malaysia, including Sabah and Sarawak, two states of the East Malaysia. Due to the importance of ageing population issues, the present study is conducted to explore the demographics facet of Malaysian’s elderly care centres. The main reason behind that lies on the fact that many of these centres are still labelled as being not well equipped and lacking behind in trained staff, equipment and also suffering from severe financial constraints but some still capable of working on a sustainability basis. Design/methodology/approach Qualitative Research Strategy has been adopted, and 28 centres throughout Malaysia are included in this study. About 18 Operators from different centres and 15 caregivers were interviewed to get the holistic view of ageing care and facilities in their respective centres. Findings The results highlight that the majority of centres are not receiving any financial help from the government, and few centres are doing small business such as supplying consumable medical and non-medical items and providing renting and rehabilitation centres facilities to sustain. The caregivers are facing issues such as excess workload, less salary, peer conflicts and non-cooperative centre leadership. Originality/value The present study may help to provide useful information to the policymakers, which enables them to formulate the strategies for ageing care centres in Malaysia. As this study provides insight of components that have an impact on the overall wellbeing of elderly care centres, hence, it could help the care services providers to act as a rising star for Malaysian’s social life comfort.


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 139-145
Author(s):  
Mengna Li ◽  
Liyun Wu

In order to solve the problem of imbalance resource allocation and service income in the elderly care service industry, this article establishes three service income models in different situations for a single provider and a single integrator while considering the quality as well as government subsidies. The results showed that government subsidies can significantly improve quality efforts and service income with a mutual restriction between quality and service income. Government subsidies would have an impact on the quality, and they are more conducive to the service income of providers. When government subsidies are less than 80% of the service income, the incentive effect is better.


Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (18) ◽  
pp. 6051
Author(s):  
Daniel Fuentes ◽  
Luís Correia ◽  
Nuno Costa ◽  
Arsénio Reis ◽  
José Ribeiro ◽  
...  

The Portuguese population is aging at an increasing rate, which introduces new problems, particularly in rural areas, where the population is small and widely spread throughout the territory. These people, mostly elderly, have low income and are often isolated and socially excluded. This work researches and proposes an affordable Ambient Assisted Living (AAL)-based solution to monitor the activities of elderly individuals, inside their homes, in a pervasive and non-intrusive way, while preserving their privacy. The solution uses a set of low-cost IoT sensor devices, computer vision algorithms and reasoning rules, to acquire data and recognize the activities performed by a subject inside a home. A conceptual architecture and a functional prototype were developed, the prototype being successfully tested in an environment similar to a real case scenario. The system and the underlying concept can be used as a building block for remote and distributed elderly care services, in which the elderly live autonomously in their homes, but have the attention of a caregiver when needed.


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