scholarly journals Calibration Of Regional Vulnerability Functions By Applying Earthquake Events Database

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 54-64
Author(s):  
Nina I. Frolova ◽  
Valery I. Larionov ◽  
Jean Bonnin ◽  
Sergey P. Sushchev ◽  
Alexander N. Ugarov
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Large Earthquake ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Calibration Procedure ◽  
Loss Assessment ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Regional Vulnerability ◽  
Earthquake Vulnerability ◽  
Collapsed Buildings ◽  
Vulnerability Functions

The paper describes the structure and content of the Information System database containing information on earthquake events, which is developed and supported within the framework of computer support for the EMERCOM of the Russian Federation. The database is assigned to provide analytical support for decision making in case of an emergency situation, including tools for mathematical simulation of hazardous excitation, the response of elements at risk to excitation and loss generation. The calibration procedure of the earthquake vulnerability functions for buildings and structures using the database with descriptions of events is presented. The calibrated functions of earthquake vulnerability for buildings of different types are applied to provide an acceptable accuracy of situational assessments for the case of a strong earthquake. The examples of earthquake damage estimations for the test site in Siberia showed that region-specific parameters in the vulnerability functions yield more reliable results to estimate possible damage and losses due to a large earthquake. For Irkutsk City, the estimates of the numbers of heavily damaged and completely collapsed buildings obtained when using different sets of parameters for vulnerability functions differ by 30%. Such difference in damage estimates can significantly affect the plans for rescue and recovery operations. The conclusion is made about the advantage of the calibrated functions application for near real-time damage and loss assessment due to strong earthquakes in order to ensure population safety and territory sustainable development.

scholarly journals A revision of the 1783–1784 Calabrian (southern Italy) tsunamis

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1053-1060 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Graziani ◽  
A. Maramai ◽  
S. Tinti
Keyword(s):  
Southern Italy ◽  
Short Interval ◽  
Large Earthquake ◽  
Historical Sources ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
The Third ◽  
A Minor ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Seismic Crisis ◽  
Values Distribution

Abstract. Southern Italy is one of the most tsunamigenic areas in the Mediterranean basin, having experienced during centuries a large number of tsunamis, some of which very destructive. In particular, the most exposed zone here is the Messina Straits separating the coasts of Calabria and Sicily that was the theatre of the strongest Italian events. In 1783–1785 Calabria was shaken by the most violent and persistent seismic crisis occurred in the last 2000 years. Five very strong earthquakes, followed by tsunamis, occurred in a short interval of time (February–March 1783), causing destruction and a lot of victims in a vast region embracing the whole southern Calabria and the Messina area, Sicily. In this study we re-examined these events by taking into account all available historical sources. In particular, we focussed on the 5 and 6 February 1783 tsunamis, that were the most destructive. As regards the 5 February event, we found that it was underestimated and erroneously considered a minor event. On the contrary, the analysis of the sources revealed that in some localities the tsunami effects were quite strong. The 6 February tsunami, the strongest one of the sequence, was due to a huge earthquake-induced rockfall and killed more than 1500 people in the Calabrian village of Scilla. For this event the inundated area and the runup values distribution were estimated. Further, the analysis of the historical sources allowed us to find three new tsunamis that passed previously unnoticed and that occurred during this seismic period. The first one occurred a few hours before the large earthquake of 5 February 1783. The second was generated by a rockfall on 24 March 1783. Finally, the third occurred on 9 January 1784, probably due to a submarine earthquake.

scholarly journals Bayesian Updating of Earthquake Vulnerability Functions with Application to Mortality Rates

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 1173-1189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hae-Young Noh ◽  
Anne Kiremidjian ◽  
Luis Ceferino ◽  
Emily So
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Distribution ◽  
Expert Opinion ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Gamma Model ◽  
Statistical Framework ◽  
Earthquake Vulnerability ◽  
Probability Densities ◽  
Vulnerability Functions

Vulnerability functions often rely on data from expert opinion, post-earthquake investigations, or analytical simulations. Combining the information can be particularly challenging. In this paper, a Bayesian statistical framework is presented to combining disparate information. The framework is illustrated through application to earthquake mortality data obtained from the 2005 Pakistan earthquake and from PAGER. Three different models are tested including an exponential, a combination of Bernoulli and exponential and Bernoulli and gamma fit to model respectively zero and non-zero mortality rates. A novel Bayesian model for the Bernoulli-exponential and Bernoulli-gamma probability densities is introduced. It is found that the exponential distribution represents the zero casualties very poorly. The Bernoulli-exponential and Bernoulli-gamma models capture the data for both the zero and non-zero mortality rates. It is also shown that the Bernoulli-gamma model fits the 2005 Pakistan data the best and has uncertainties that are smaller than either the ones from the 2005 Pakistan data or the PAGER data.

Development of earthquake vulnerability functions for tall buildings

2012 ◽  
Vol 41 (11) ◽  
pp. 1495-1514 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nirmal Jayaram ◽  
Nilesh Shome ◽  
Mohsen Rahnama
Keyword(s):  
Tall Buildings ◽  
Earthquake Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability Functions

scholarly journals A morpho-tectonic approach to the study of earthquakes in Rome

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrizio Marra ◽  
Alberto Frepoli ◽  
Dario Gioia ◽  
Marcello Schiattarella ◽  
Andrea Tertulliani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Structural Control ◽  
Large Earthquake ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Epicentral Area ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Tectonic Regime ◽  
Moderate Earthquake ◽  
Extreme Degree ◽  
Degree Of Fragmentation ◽  
Buried Faults

Abstract. Rome has the world’s longest historical record of felt earthquakes, with more than 100 events during the last 2,600 years. However, no destructive earthquake has been reported in the sources and all of the greatest damage suffered in the past has been attributed to far-field events. While this fact suggests that a moderate seismotectonic regime characterizes the Rome area, no study has provided a comprehensive explanation for the lack of strong earthquakes in the region. Through the analysis of the focal mechanism and the morphostructural setting of the epicentral area of a "typical" moderate earthquake (ML = 3.3) that recently occurred in the northern urban area of Rome, we demonstrate that this event reactivated a buried segment of an ancient fault generated under both a different and a stronger tectonic regime than that which is presently active. We also show that the evident structural control over the drainage network in this area reflects an extreme degree of fragmentation of a set of buried faults generated under two competing stress fields throughout the Pleistocene. Small faults and a present-day weaker tectonic regime with respect to that acting during the Pleistocene explain the lack of strong seismicity and imply that a large earthquake could not reasonably occur.

Imaging of an active fault: Comparison between 3D GPR data and outcrops at the Castrovillari fault, Calabria, Italy

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. SY57-SY66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ercoli Maurizio ◽  
Pauselli Cristina ◽  
Romana Cinti Francesca ◽  
Forte Emanuele ◽  
Volpe Roberto
Keyword(s):  
Active Fault ◽  
Data Interpretation ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
The Past ◽  
3D Gpr ◽  
Dip Angle ◽  
Ground Penetrating

We have integrated and analyzed a 3D ground-penetrating radar (GPR) volume with a trenching exposure data set to evaluate the potential of these methods individually and combined for study of a fault zone. We chose a test site across a branch of the active Castrovillari fault in the Northern Calabria (Southern Italy). This tectonic structure is one of the most active in the area, and it has generated strong earthquakes in the past. Based on analysis of previously collected data, a 3D GPR survey was carried out 1.2 m from a fault outcrop. The goal was to use the GPR volume to guide and optimize the excavation of a trench and then to use the trenching data to validate the GPR volume interpretation. We used seismic interpretation software to display vertical and horizontal sections and for horizon tracking and attribute analyses. We obtained quantitative information on the geometry of structural and geologic features, such as fault strike and dip angle, defining the boundaries of different stratigraphic units. We validated our GPR data interpretation with the outcrop section and trench wall demonstrating the benefits of GPR in extensional tectonics environments and the great potential of the combined geologic and geophysical approach.

scholarly journals Preseismic Groundwater Ion Content Variations: Observational Data in Flowing Wells of the Kamchatka Peninsula and Conceptual Model

Minerals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 731
Author(s):  
Galina Kopylova ◽  
Svetlana Boldina
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Composition ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Water Movement ◽  
Water Pressure ◽  
Kamchatka Peninsula ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Ion Content ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Hydrodynamic Parameters ◽  
Mixed Water

Repeated manifestations of hydrogeochemical anomalies in groundwater ion content variations before local strong earthquakes were recorded in three flowing wells of the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky test site. A model of changes in chemical composition of groundwater is considered using observational data and modeling of two waters mixing with contrasting composition in a zone of increased permeability in aquifer. Hydrodynamic parameters of the model—relaxation time of water pressure impulses and the time of mixed water movement in aquifer and wellbore—can vary from days to hundreds of days in individual wells. These parameters determine the duration and morphological features of anomaly in mixed water from a well. Using observational data from self-flowing well M-1, an assessment was made of chemical composition and mineralization of two mixing waters and their ratio in mixed water under background conditions and during the preparation of earthquake on 2 March 1992, Mw = 6.9.

Effects of Firefighting Activities Performed by Local Residents to Mitigate Fire Destruction Damage and Human Casualties in Large Earthquakes

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 272-280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuya Oki ◽  
◽  
Toshihiro Osaragi
Keyword(s):  
Large Earthquake ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Adjacent Building ◽  
Local Residents ◽  
Prevention Activities ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Collapsed Buildings ◽  
Flame Retardation ◽  
Large Earthquakes

Fire-spread prevention activities, which are performed by local residents in an early phase of fire, play an important role in reducing the destruction damage caused by fire in large earthquakes. However, few studies have focused on the fire-spread prevention activities that are carried out in the confused situation immediately following a large earthquake. Therefore, to date, there has been no sufficiently comprehensive discussion regarding the effectiveness of such activities.In this study, we estimate the possibility that local residents can prevent the spread of fire from the building of fire origin to an adjacent building by using equipment such as stand pipes. For this purpose, we utilize the agent-based simulator of property damage and human behavior at the time of a large earthquake that we developed in an earlier study. In addition, we demonstrate the effects of some measures for increasing the success rate of preventing fire-spread by comparing the simulation results under the following assumptions: (1) The percentage of streets blocked by the rubble of collapsed buildings is decreased, (2) the number of stand pipes is increased, and (3) the time before a fire spreads to an adjacent building is lengthened by planting trees between two buildings or the implementation of flame-retardation measures inside a building. Furthermore, on the basis of the simulation results, we discuss the requirements for successful fire-spread prevention activities by analyzing some factors (structure/area of buildings, time for fire-spread, time before spraying water, etc.) related to the activities.

scholarly journals HYDROGEOCHEMICAL EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS (ON THE EXAMPLE OF AREAS OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RUSSIA, AND THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN)

2020 ◽  
Vol 4(48) ◽  
pp. 5-20
Author(s):  
G.N. Kopylova ◽  
◽  
Sh.S. Yusupov ◽  
Yu.K. Serafimova ◽  
L.Yu. Shin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Waves ◽  
Seismic Energy ◽  
Kamchatka Peninsula ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Coseismic Deformation ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Underground Waters ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Hydrogeochemical Precursors

Hydrogeochemical precursors of the earthquakes (HGCP) in changes of ion-salt and gas composition of underground waters from self-discharging wells and springs on the territory of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky test site, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia and Tashkent test site, Republic of Uzbekistan are considered. There has been analyzed the connection of HGCP with parameters of earthquakes — with correlation between magnitudes and epicentral distances, as well as with values of specific density of seismic energy in the wave, intensity of ground shaking and other parameters of earthquake impact in the regions of observation. In Kamchatka wells HGCP were revealed before the earthquakes with Mw = 6.5 to 7.8 at epicentral distances de = 100 to 310 km at relatively narrow ranges of values of seismic energy density in the wave (0.1 to 0.3 J/m3), volumetric coseismic deformation of water-containing rocks (one to tens 10-9) and maximal velocities of seismic waves (3.5–7.7 cm/sec). HGCP took place in the zones with intensity of the earthquakes not less than 4 to 6 by MSK-64 scale and were confined to the intermediate zones of sources of future earthquakes. Duration of HGCP development and their appearance before the following earthquakes amount to 1 to 9 months, which allows using such precursors for prediction of time of strong earthquakes.

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