scholarly journals Can Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Contain the Spreading of Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in the Asia Pacific Countries?

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-99
Author(s):  
Rashidur Rahman ◽  
Amjad Hossain ◽  
Md Mozibullah ◽  
Afrina Afrose
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Success Stories ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

A novel coronavirus, namely SARS-CoV-2, has emerged rapidly and overspread worldwide, causing a pandemic disease, COVID-19. Until now, no pharmaceutical interventions specific to the COVID-19 infection has been proven effective. In these circumstances, non-pharmaceutical interventions, for example, banning local and international flights, national lockdowns of cities, social distancing, self-isolation, home-quarantine, the closure of schools and universities, closure of government and private offices, banning of mass gatherings would play a vital role in minimizing the primary reproduction number (R0) in expected level. Many Asia Pacific countries, Bangladesh, China, India, Iran, Nepal, New Zealand, Pakistan, and Vietnam, adopt, practice, and implement those non-pharmaceutical interventions and have success stories. Thereby, non-pharmaceutical interventions can contain the virus's spreading, which further reduces long waiting for the healthcare system's hospitalization and burden.

scholarly journals Transmission potential of COVID-19 in South Korea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eunha Shim ◽  
Amna Tariq ◽  
Wongyeong Choi ◽  
Yiseul Lee ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractSince the first identified individual of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection on Jan 20, 2020 in South Korea, the number of confirmed cases rapidly increased. As of Feb 26, 2020, 1,261 cases of COVID-19 including 12 deaths were confirmed in South Korea. Using the incidence data of COVID-19, we estimate the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.6), which indicates sustained transmission and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak.

scholarly journals Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in Europe in 2020: a quasi-experimental non-equivalent group and time series design study

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (28) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul R Hunter ◽  
Felipe J Colón-González ◽  
Julii Brainard ◽  
Steven Rushton
Keyword(s):  
Social Life ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
At Home

Introduction The current pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is unparalleled in recent history as are the social distancing interventions that have led to a considerable halt on the economic and social life of so many countries. Aim We aimed to generate empirical evidence about which social distancing measures had the most impact in reducing case counts and mortality. Methods We report a quasi-experimental (observational) study of the impact of various interventions for control of the outbreak through 24 April 2020. Chronological data on case numbers and deaths were taken from the daily published figures by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and dates of initiation of various control strategies from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation website and published sources. Our complementary analyses were modelled in R using Bayesian generalised additive mixed models and in STATA using multilevel mixed-effects regression models. Results From both sets of modelling, we found that closure of education facilities, prohibiting mass gatherings and closure of some non-essential businesses were associated with reduced incidence whereas stay-at-home orders and closure of additional non-essential businesses was not associated with any independent additional impact. Conclusions Our findings are that schools and some non-essential businesses operating ‘as normal’ as well as allowing mass gatherings were incompatible with suppressing disease spread. Closure of all businesses and stay at home orders are less likely to be required to keep disease incidence low. Our results help identify what were the most effective non-pharmaceutical interventions in this period.

scholarly journals How quarantine and social distancing policy can suppress the outbreak of novel coronavirus in developing or under poverty level countries : a mathematical and statistical analysis.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Atiqur Chowdhury ◽  
K M Ariful Kabir ◽  
Jun Tanimoto
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
Accurate Predictor ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Polynomial Fit ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Background: COVID-19 is a transmissible viral disease that has spread around the world rapidly and is currently a significant thread to developing and impoverished country by the World Bank and WHO’s prediction. Without inventing vaccination or the proper treatment, how we control the transmission of the COVID-19 is one of the most important questions with which peoples are facing right now . By the WHO’s guidelines, some policies termed as isolation, quarantine, lockdown, and social distancing would give a stunning direction to control the epidemic outbreak. Methods: In this paper, we developed a mathematical model named “Social distancing SEIQR model” to reduce the basic reproduction number R0 by combining both quarantine and social distancing parameters based on the real cases where medical equipment and other resources are limited. Results: Our modeling basic reproduction number R 0 is an almost accurate predictor threshold to assess the transmissibility of the COVID-19 in Bangladesh. Our modeling basic reproduction number R0 is an almost accurate predictor threshold to assess the transmissibility of the COVID-19 in Bangladesh. Our study result showed, our model fitted well with the numerically simulated results to the reported COVID-19 cases data for Bangladesh by a linear regression polynomial fit analysis. Conclusion: Our model will help to find strategies to reduce the human-to-human transmission of the virus and protect the nation when a country has limited medical resources.

scholarly journals SARS-Cov-2 trajectory predictions and scenario simulations from a global perspective: a modelling study

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianan Yang ◽  
Yexin Liu ◽  
Wenhao Deng ◽  
Weigang Zhao ◽  
Jianwei Deng
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
Intervention Level ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerging from Wuhan, China has developed into a global epidemic. Here, we combine both human mobility and non-pharmaceutical interventions (social-distancing and suspected-cases isolation) into SEIR transmission model to understand how coronavirus transmits in a global environment. Dynamic trends of region-specific time-variant reproduction number, social-distancing rate, work-resumption rate, and suspected-cases isolation rate have been estimated and plotted for each region by fitting stochastic transmission processes to the real total confirmed cases reported of each region. We find after shutdown in Wuhan, the reproduction number in Wuhan greatly declined from 6·982 (95% CI 2·558–14·668) on January 23rd, 2020 to 1.130 (95% CI 0.289–3.279) on February 7th, 2020, and there was a higher intervention level in terms of social-distancing and suspected-cases isolation in Wuhan than the Chinese average and Western average, for the period from the shutdown in Wuhan to mid-March. Future epidemic trajectories of Western countries up to October 10th, 2020, have been predicted with 95% confidence intervals. Through the scenario simulation, we discover the benefits of earlier international travel ban and rigorous intervention strategies, and the significance of non-pharmaceutical interventions. From a global perspective, it is vital for each country to control the risks of imported cases, and execute rigorous non-pharmaceutical interventions before successful vaccination development.

scholarly journals COVID-19 infection data encode a dynamic reproduction number in response to policy decisions with secondary wave implications

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Rowland ◽  
Todd M. Swannack ◽  
Michael L. Mayo ◽  
Matthew Parno ◽  
Matthew Farthing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Policy ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
State Level ◽  
Secondary Wave ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
State And Local ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Changes Over Time

AbstractThe SARS-CoV-2 virus is responsible for the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which has spread to populations throughout the continental United States. Most state and local governments have adopted some level of “social distancing” policy, but infections have continued to spread despite these efforts. Absent a vaccine, authorities have few other tools by which to mitigate further spread of the virus. This begs the question of how effective social policy really is at reducing new infections that, left alone, could potentially overwhelm the existing hospitalization capacity of many states. We developed a mathematical model that captures correlations between some state-level “social distancing” policies and infection kinetics for all U.S. states, and use it to illustrate the link between social policy decisions, disease dynamics, and an effective reproduction number that changes over time, for case studies of Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Washington states. In general, our findings indicate that the potential for second waves of infection, which result after reopening states without an increase to immunity, can be mitigated by a return of social distancing policies as soon as possible after the waves are detected.

scholarly journals Effective reproduction number for COVID-19 in Aotearoa New Zealand

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachelle N Binny ◽  
Audrey Lustig ◽  
Ann Brower ◽  
Shaun C Hendy ◽  
Alex James ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Primary Case ◽  
Standard Methods ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
Aotearoa New Zealand ◽  
Case Data ◽  
Best Fit

The effective reproduction number, Reff, is the average number of secondary cases infected by a primary case, a key measure of the transmission potential for a disease. Compared to many countries, New Zealand has had relatively few COVID-19 cases, many of which were caused by infections acquired overseas. This makes it difficult to use standard methods to estimate Reff. In this work, we use a stochastic model to simulate COVID-19 spread in New Zealand and report the values of Reff from simulations that gave best fit to case data. We estimate that New Zealand had an effective reproduction number Reff = 1.8 for COVID-19 transmission prior to moving into Alert Level 4 on March 25 2020 and that after moving into Alert level 4 this was reduced to Reff = 0.35. Our estimate Reff = 1.8 for reproduction number before Alert Level 4, is relatively low compared to other countries. This could be due, in part, to measures put in place in early- to mid-March, including: the cancellation of mass gatherings, the isolation of international arrivals, and employees being encouraged to work from home.

scholarly journals SEIR Model for COVID-19 Dynamics Incorporating the Environment and Social Distancing

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Mwalili ◽  
Mark Kimanthi ◽  
Viona Ojiambo ◽  
Duncan Gathungu ◽  
Rachel Waema Mbogo
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Disease Spreading ◽  
Next Generation Matrix ◽  
Model Equations ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Fifth Order

Abstract Objective: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic of respiratory disease spreading from person-to-person caused by a novel coronavirus and poses a serious public health risk. The goal of this study is to apply SEIR compartmental mathematical model for prediction of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics incorporating pathogen in the environment and interventions. The next generation matrix approach was used to determine the basic reproduction number R0. The model equations are solved numerically using fourth and fifth order Runge–Kutta methods. Results: The value of basic reproduction number R0 was determined as 2.03, implying that the pandemic will persist in the human population. Results after simulating various scenarios indicate that disregarding social distancing, wearing of masks and frequent washing of hands can have devastating effects on the human population. The model shows that quarantine and isolation are key winners to this pandemic.

scholarly journals Forecasting the SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction number using bulk contact data from mobile phones

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sten Rüdiger ◽  
Stefan Konigorski ◽  
Jonathan Edelman ◽  
Detlef Zernick ◽  
Alexander Thieme ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Gps Tracking ◽  
Contact Behavior ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Social ◽  
Specific Contact ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Over the last months, cases of SARS-CoV-2 surged repeatedly in many countries and could often be controlled with non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing. We analyzed de-identified GPS tracking data from 1.15 to 1.4 million cell phones in Germany per day between March-November 2020 to identify encounters between individuals and statistically evaluate large-scale contact behavior. Using graph sampling theory we estimated the contact index (CI), a metric for number and heterogeneity of contacts and found that the contact index, and not the total number of contacts, is an accurate predsictor for the effective reproduction number R. A high correlation between CI and R occurring more than two weeks later allows timely assessment of the social behavior well before the infections become detectable. The CI quantifies the role of superspreading and allows assigning risks to specific contact behavior. We provide a critical CI-value beyond which R is expected to rise above 1 and propose to use it to leverage the social distancing interventions for the coming months.

scholarly journals A model of dual latency compartments for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Oyo state, Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
O. Adedire ◽  
◽  
J. N. Ndam ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Media ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
A Value ◽  
The People ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Effective Use

In this study, a mathematical model of dual latency compartments is developed to investigate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic in Oyo state, Nigeria. The model consists of non-pharmaceutical control strategies which include the use of face masks, social-distancing and impact of mass-media on the spread of novel coronavirus in the state. Results indicate control reproduction number \(R_C = 1.4\) with possibilities of high constructive influence of mass-media. Thus, at the fitted values of \(\sigma _f = 0.1,\; \sigma _d = 0.1,\;\sigma _m = 0.6\), the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic is attained after 59,217 infectious quarantined individuals and 328,440 infectious but not quarantined individuals have contracted COVID-19 in about 439 and 443 days respectively from the date of the first incidence. Therefore, efforts on mass-media with programs that can inform the people on effective use of face masks, social-distancing and other safety measures can aid reduction of reproduction number to a value below 1 necessary for eradication of the disease.

Negotiating diasporic culture: festival collaborations and production networks

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 100-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Booth
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Network Theory ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Collaborative Networks ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Production Networks ◽  
Collaborative Relationships ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Historical Perspectives ◽  
Starting Point

Purpose Within New Zealand, cultural festivals play a vital role in the local representation of diasporic cultures. By analysing the production design of festivals, in Auckland, New Zealand representing Indian culture between 1995 and 2015, the purpose of this paper is to create a deeper understanding of collaborative networks and power relationships. Using Richard’s pulsar/iterative network theory and Booth’s notion of cultural production networks, a new theoretical model is proposed to visually track the collaborative networks that sustain and bridge cultures, empower communities and fulfil political agendas. Design/methodology/approach This ethnographic research draws upon event management studies, industry practice, ethnomusicology and sociology to take a multi-disciplinary approach to an applied research project. Using Richards’ pulsar and iterative event framework Castells’ network theory, combined with qualitative data, this research considers critical collaborative relationships clusters and how they might impact on the temporal nature of festivals. Findings The 1997 Festival of Asia and the subsequent Lantern Festival in 2000 and Diwali: Festival of Lights in 2002 were pulsar events that played a significant role in collaborative networks that expand across cultures, countries and traditions. The subsequent iterative events have played a vital role in the representation of Asian cultural identity in general and, more specifically, representing of the city’s growing – in both size and cultural diversity – Indian diaspora. Originality/value This research proposes a new conceptual model on festival management and diasporic communities in the Asia-Pacific region. Richards’ and Booth’s conceptual models are used, as a starting point, to offer a new way of considering the importance of looking at collaborative relationships through historical perspectives. The framework explored contributes a new approach to cultural festival network theory and a means to understand the complexity of networks required that engage actors from inside and outside both local and global communities.

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