Responses to Lost Letters about a 2000 General Election Amendment to Abolish Prohibition of Interracial Marriages in Alabama

2002 ◽  
Vol 91 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1148-1150 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Stephen Bridges ◽  
Kato B. Keeton ◽  
L. Nicholle Clark
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Small Towns ◽  
General Election ◽  
Community Size ◽  
Rates Of Return ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Interracial Marriages ◽  
Unobtrusive Measure ◽  
The City

A field study using 621 “lost” letters was conducted in the city of Mobile and in small towns in mostly rural Baldwin County, Alabama. Milgram's lost letter technique was validated against the actual votes cast during the November 7, 2000 General Election. The technique was successful as an unobtrusive measure useful for predicting patterns of voting behavior. Rates of return of lost letters “in favor of and opposed to legalizing interracial marriage” agreed with the actual election returns (chi-square “goodness of fit”). Community size seemed associated with return of lost letters.

Extensions of the Lost Letter Technique to Divisive Issues of Creationism, Darwinism, Sex Education, and Gay and Lesbian Affiliations

2002 ◽  
Vol 90 (2) ◽  
pp. 391-400 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Stephen Bridges ◽  
Debra A. Anzalone ◽  
Stuart W. Ryan ◽  
Fanancy L. Anzalone
Keyword(s):  
Public Schools ◽  
Health Education ◽  
Sex Education ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Small Towns ◽  
Gay And Lesbian ◽  
Community Size ◽  
Rates Of Return ◽  
The City

Two field studies using 1,004 “lost letters” were designed to test the hypotheses that returned responses would be greater in small towns than from a city, that addressees' affiliation with a group either (1) opposed to physical education in schools, (2) supporting gay and lesbian teachers, or (3) advocating Creationism or Darwinism would reduce the return rate. Of 504 letters “lost” in Study A, 163 (32.3%) were returned in the mail from residents of southeast Louisiana and indicated across 3 addressees and 2 sizes of community, addressees' affiliations were not associated with returned responses. Community size and addressees' affiliations were associated with significantly different rates of return in the city. Return rates from sites within a city were lower when letters were addressed to an organization which opposed (teaching) health education in the schools than to one supporting daily health education. Of 500 letters “lost” in Study B, 95 (19.0%) were returned from residents of northwest Florida and indicated across 5 addressees and 2 sizes of community, addressees' affiliations were significantly associated with returned responses overall (5 addressees) and in small towns (control, Creationism, Darwinism addressees), but not with community size. Community size and addressees' affiliations were associated with significantly different rates of return in small towns, with returns greater than or equal to those in the city (except for the addressee advocating teaching Darwinism in public schools). The present findings appear to show that applications of the lost letter technique to other divisive social issues are useful in assessing public opinion.

Affiliation, Community Size, and Destination in Return of Lost Letters

1998 ◽  
Vol 83 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1387-1393 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Stephen Bridges ◽  
Stu Ryan ◽  
Jennifer J. Scheibe
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
Sex Workers ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Community Size ◽  
Rates Of Return ◽  
Male Sex Workers ◽  
Return Rates ◽  
The People ◽  
City Population ◽  
The City

Two field studies used 2400 “lost letters” to test the hypothesis that return rates would be greater from smaller rural communities (population Ms = 1729) than from a city (population M = 60,591), unless the addressee was affiliated with a socially or politically deviant group. Addresses' affiliations were significantly associated with different rates of return in both studies. In Study A, community size and addressees' affiliations were significantly associated with different rates of return in the city and smaller rural communities, rates generally being greater in the city even when the people in need of help were affiliated with the deviant “For Prostitution, or Female and Male Sex Workers.” Destinations were not associated with return rates in either study. In Study B, community size and addressees' affiliation were significantly associated with different rates of return in only smaller rural communities. Return rates were lower than those from the city except when the person was affiliated with the deviant “NORML or Legalized Prostitution” addressees.

scholarly journals Madrid, Socialist city. The keys to PSOE’s success in the 1923 general election = Madrid, ciudad socialista. Las claves del triunfo del PSOE en las elecciones generales de 1923

2019 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Santiago de Miguel Salanova
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Political Action ◽  
General Election ◽  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
Municipal Policy ◽  
Spatial Perspective ◽  
Palabras Clave ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The City

Resumen: Las elecciones generales de 1923 representaron el canto de cisne de la política representativa en Madrid durante la etapa de la Restauración. La expresión del voto de la capital española ha sido generalmente analizada en este contexto como un veredicto sobre la cuestión de Marruecos y el asunto de las responsabilidades exigidas tras el desastre de Annual. Sin obviar este detalle y otros relacionados con la presentación de un programa más moderado por parte del PSOE, este artículo indaga en la influencia que el marco urbano y la actuación socialista en el mismo jugaron en el resultado de los comicios. El análisis de la acción política municipal socialista previa a las votaciones permitirá ahondar en esta cuestión y entender el escrutinio final, observado desde una perspectiva socio-espacial micro analítica. Palabras clave: Madrid, socialismo, política municipal, comportamientos electorales.Abstract: The general elections of 1923 represented the swan song of socialism in Madrid during the Restoration period. The tendencies of voting behaviour of the city in this context has been generally analysed as a verdict on the question of Morocco and the issue of responsibilities required after the Annual Disaster. Having in mind this detail and others related to the presentation of a moderate program by the PSOE, this article explores the influence that the urban framework and the socialist performances in it played in the outcome of the elections. The analysis of the socialist municipal political action prior to voting will allow us to delve into this question and understand the results, observed from a micro analytical socio-spatial perspective. Keywords: Madrid, socialism, municipal policy, voting behavior.

scholarly journals PENGARUH AGAMA TERHADAP PERILAKU MEMILIH PEMIMPIN PADA GENERASI MUDA DIKOTA BANDUNG

BUANA ILMU ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-139
Author(s):  
Ratna Fitria ◽  
Mulyana ◽  
Wilodati ◽  
Kama Abdulhakam
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
General Election ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Kendall’S Tau ◽  
Kendall's Tau ◽  
Religious Piety ◽  
Younger Generation ◽  
The City

Masalah yang sering muncul menjelang pemilihan umum adalah banyaknya partai politik yang lebih mengutamakan pencitraan keimanan dan ketakwaan beragama sebagai modal untuk meraih kemenangan. Lamar melamar terhadap orang yang memiliki jabatan yang tinggi dibidang keagamaan akan sangat laris dan akan selalu menjadi orang yang paling dicari ketika menjelang pemilihan umum. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui bagaimana agama mempengaruhi perilaku memilih pada generasi muda?.Pendekatan penelitian yang digunakan adalah pendekatan kuantitatif. Pendekatan tersebut digunakan untuk menggali nilai keyakinan beragama yang dimiliki generasi muda. Penelitian ini akan melibatkan para pemuda yang berada dikota Bandung. Instrument yang digunakan untuk mengukur variable adalah Skala Guttuman dengan menggunakan dua jawaban yang tegas dan konsisten yaitu ya dan tidak, nilai ya (1) dan nilai tidak (0).Adapun hasil penelitian dengan menggunakan korelasi kendall’s tau dapat diketahui bahwa nilai signifikansi 0,021 yang berarti bahwa bahwa tidak ada hubungan secara signifikan antara Agama seseorang dengan perilaku memilih. Kata Kunci: Perilaku memilih, Generasi Muda, Agama The problem that often arises before the general election is that there are many political parties that prioritize the image of faith and religious piety as capital to achieve victory. Applying for people who have high positions in the field of religion will be very in demand and will always be the most sought after people when approaching the general election. This research was conducted to find out how religion affects voting behavior in the younger generation. The research approach used is a quantitative approach. This approach is used to explore the values ​​of religious beliefs owned by the younger generation. This research will involve youths in the city of Bandung. The instrument used to measure the variable is the Guttuman Scale using two firm and consistent answers, namely yes and no, yes (1) and no (0). As for the results of the study using the Kendall's tau correlation, it can be seen that the significance value is 0.021, which means that there is no significant relationship between a person's religion and voting behavior. Keywords: voting behavior, youth, religion

Prediction of Haemoglobin Level by Some Probability Distribution

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-88
Author(s):  
Govinda Prasad Dhungana ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Sapkota
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Continuous Variable ◽  
Hemoglobin Level ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
Two Parameters ◽  
Best Fit

 Hemoglobin level is a continuous variable. So, it follows some theoretical probability distribution Normal, Log-normal, Gamma and Weibull distribution having two parameters. There is low variation in observed and expected frequency of Normal distribution in bar diagram. Similarly, calculated value of chi-square test (goodness of fit) is observed which is lower in Normal distribution. Furthermore, plot of PDFof Normal distribution covers larger area of histogram than all of other distribution. Hence Normal distribution is the best fit to predict the hemoglobin level in future.

The ffs Allele Conditions Flower Stem Fasciation in Red Beet

HortScience ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 527f-528
Author(s):  
I.L. Goldman
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Control ◽  
Inbred Line ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Female Parent ◽  
Inbred Lines ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Recessive Character ◽  
Variable Expression ◽  
Red Beet ◽  
Flower Stem

A fasciated flower stem character arose spontaneously during development of the red beet (Beta vulgaris L.) inbred line W411. The fasciated character is manifest by a flattened flower stem with petioles coalesced into a twisted, ribbonlike appearance. No fasciation is present in the vegetative stem or petioles. An inheritance study was conducted to determine the genetic control of flower stem fasciation. The inbred line W411 was used both as a male and female parent in crosses with four red beet inbred lines. Segregating progenies in both the BC1 and F2 generations were developed and scored for the fasciated flower stem character. Variable expression of the fasciated flower stem phenotype was observed in these progenies; however, the presence of flattened flower stems at the stem/hypocotyl junction was unequivocal. Chi-square goodness-of-fit tests in both the BC1 and F2 generations did not deviate significantly from expected ratios for a monogenic recessive character for each genetic background. No reciprocal differences were detected for any cross in this group of four inbred lines, which suggests the lack of maternal effect for the fasciated character. The symbol ffs is proposed to describe the genetic control of the fasciated flower stem phenotype.

Skull and Face Injuries and Associated Factors in Pedestrian Victims of Traffic Accidents: A Single Trauma Center Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-59
Author(s):  
Josimara A. de Araújo Varela ◽  
Tatiana F.T. Palitot ◽  
Smyrna L.X. de Souza ◽  
Alidianne F.C. Cavalcanti ◽  
Alessandro L. Cavalcanti
Keyword(s):  
Medical Records ◽  
Associated Factors ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
The Face ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
The City

Objective: This study aimed to analyze the presence of lesions in the skull and face and the associated factors in pedestrian victims of traffic accidents. Methods: A cross-sectional, descriptive-analytical study carried out through the analysis of medical records of pedestrian victims of traffic accidents in an emergency service in the city of Campina Grande, Brazil, during the year of 2016. Information was collected regarding gender, age group, day of the week, time of the accident, type of vehicle involved, presence of trauma to the skull and face, and outcomes. The Chi-square and Fisher's Exact tests were used, with a significance level of 5%. Results: A total of 1,884 medical records were evaluated, out of which 7.1% (n = 133) involved pedestrians. Men were the most frequent victims (68.4%), and victims of age 60 years old or over (30.5%) predominated. Almost one-third of the cases were recorded during the weekends (30.5%), and the most prevalent time was at night (52.7%). Regarding the type of vehicle involved, motorcycles predominated (47.4%). Head trauma was present in 37.6% of victims, while facial injuries corresponded to 8.2%. In 12% of cases, the victims died. The variables of gender, age group, occurrence on weekends, and trauma to the face showed a statistically significant association with the occurrence of traffic accidents (Chi-square test; p<0.05). Conclusion: Among pedestrian victims of traffic accidents, there is a predominance of men aged 65 years or over. Accidents are frequent at night, and motorcycles are the main vehicles involved. The presence of trauma to the skull and face regions is high.

scholarly journals Using Benford’s law to assess the quality of COVID-19 register data in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucas Silva ◽  
Dalson Figueiredo Filho
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Mean Absolute Deviation ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Distortion Factor ◽  
Benford Law ◽  
Official Data

Abstract We employ Newcomb–Benford law (NBL) to evaluate the reliability of COVID-19 figures in Brazil. Using official data from February 25 to September 15, we apply a first digit test for a national aggregate dataset of total cases and cumulative deaths. We find strong evidence that Brazilian reports do not conform to the NBL theoretical expectations. These results are robust to different goodness of fit (chi-square, mean absolute deviation and distortion factor) and data sources (John Hopkins University and Our World in Data). Despite the growing appreciation for evidence-based-policymaking, which requires valid and reliable data, we show that the Brazilian epidemiological surveillance system fails to provide trustful data under the NBL assumption on the COVID-19 epidemic.

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