Identification of seasonal fluctuations in the nonlinear dynamics of the number of registered crimes

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 554-576
Author(s):  
Evgenii V. SEMENYCHEV ◽  
Anastasiya A. KOROBETSKAYA ◽  
Vadim V. DEMIDOV

Subject. The article considers trends in different types of crimes committed in the Russian Federation from 2012 to 2019. Objectives. The purpose is to determine trends and the presence or absence of annual seasonality in the analyzed dynamics. Methods. The study draws on parametric modeling of trend-seasonal dynamics, using our own procedures, a set of models and methods for their identification by means of generalized ARMA models, the STL (Seasonal Transformation using LOESS) method, the Yeo-Johnson method based on standard libraries and applications of the R programming language. Results. The paper offers two methods to model seasonality: a "rough" assessment of its presence and a "fine" assessment, with obtaining quantitative estimates of model parameters and estimates of qualitative characteristics of modeling. We determine optimal smoothing settings to solve the problem of trend-seasonal modeling of crime dynamics, analyze the dynamics of eleven types of registered crimes, and identify the parameters of seasonal component for each of them. Conclusions. In nine out of eleven types of considered crimes, there is a pronounced annual seasonality, which is advisable to take into account, when organizing and planning the law enforcement activities.

Author(s):  
Alexandr V. Izmalkov ◽  
Alexander A. Kuznetsov ◽  
Pavel A. Kuznetsov ◽  
Ella Y. Kuzmenko

We analyze the law enforcement practice of judicial authorities on taxes and fees, since the Tax Code of the Russian Federation is a rather controversial regulatory legal act. Tax disputes arise both at the initiative of tax authorities and at the initiative of taxpayers. Purpose: to determine the main directions of law enforcement practice of courts in tax disputes. We use general scientific and specially legal methods as research methods. The focus is on the method of analysis. In the course of the research, we analyze the con-sideration of cases by judicial authorities on tax disputes, their quantitative and qualitative characteristics. We conclude that the emergence of disagree-ments between taxpayers and the state body when resolving the issue of the legality of their actions (inaction), as well as the legality of a non-normative legal act is the main reason for the formation of law enforcement practice in tax disputes. During the passage of all stages of the application of the law, it is also necessary to establish the existence of a cause-and-effect relationship between the actions of the taxpayer and the resulting consequences. The main points of this process go through several stages. We define the main directions of the law enforcement practice of courts in tax disputes.


Author(s):  
Олег Игоревич Денисенко ◽  
Оганнес Давитович Мкртчян

В связи с увеличением числа преступлений террористической направленности разрешения требуют вопросы, связанные с обеспечением объектов (территорий) УИС инструментами антитеррористической защищенности, к которым можно отнести такие, как проведение организационно-практических мероприятий антитеррористической защиты объектов УИС, наличие соответствующей документации и ответственного должностного лица, выполнение режимных требований на объектах УИС в соответствии с законодательством РФ, а также обеспечение контроля за количественными и качественными характеристиками эксплуатируемых инженерно-технических средств охраны и надзора. Актуальность проводимого исследования обусловлена необходимостью качественной реализации в правоприменительной практике совокупности требований обеспечения мероприятий по обеспечению антитеррористической защищенности объектов (территорий) УИС с целью защиты прав и интересов всех субъектов уголовно-исполнительной системы от террористического посягательства. Авторами выявляются проблемы правового и организационного уровня при оценке состояния антитеррористической защищенности объектов УИС: формализм при проведении обследований, недостаточный уровень оснащенности объектов УИС инженерно-техническими средствами охраны и надзора, а также финансирования для удовлетворения нужд объектов УИС в части обеспечения антитеррористической защищенности. Помимо прочего упоминаются такие проблемы, как отсутствие унифицированных принципов организации деятельности комплексных комиссионных обследований, разработанных с учетом современных правоприменительных норм и запросов практики, а также обосновывается необходимость повышения компетентности сотрудников ФСИН России при проведении комплексных комиссионных обследований. In connection with the increase in the number of terrorist crimes, the resolution requires issues related to the provision of facilities (territories) of the penal system with anti-terrorist security tools, which include such as the implementation of organizational and practical measures for the anti-terrorist protection of the penal system, the availability of appropriate documentation and a responsible official, the implementation of regime requirements at the facilities of the penal system in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation, as well as ensuring control over the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the operating engineering and technical means of protection and supervision. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that in law enforcement practice, a high-quality implementation of the set of requirements for ensuring the anti-terrorist protection of objects (territories) of the penal system is required so that the rights and interests of all subjects of the penal system in terms of protection from terrorist encroachment are observed. The authors identify the problems of the legal and organizational level when assessing the state of anti-terrorist security of penal facilities: formalism in conducting surveys, insufficient equipment of penal facilities with engineering and technical means of protection and supervision, as well as the level of funding to meet the needs of penal facilities in terms of ensuring anti-terrorist protection. Among other things, such problems as the lack of unified principles for organizing the activities of complex commission surveys, developed taking into account modern law enforcement norms and practice requests, are mentioned, as well as the need to improve the competence of employees of the Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia when conducting comprehensive commission surveys is substantiated.


Author(s):  
В.С. Безногих

The article provides an analysis of crime related to firearms, ammunition and explosives. It is written based on the results of the study of information on this category of crimes collected in open sources (law enforcement websites and media news resources). In contrast to the departmental statistics and narrative reports that serve certain tasks of law enforcement agencies, the present analysis attempts to describe additional qualitative characteristics for this category of crimes in order to identify more specific trends and determine the impact of the situation in south-eastern Ukraine caused by the armed aggression of the Russian Federation. Relying on his experience of work in the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) projects, the author of the study attempts to adapt and apply the principles of collecting of qualitative information from open sources, which are used to collect information on drug-related crimes for the Drug Monitoring Platform in the Afghan Opiate Trade Project (AOPT). The study covers all types of crimes related to firearms, ammunition and explosives, both those in which the weapon is the subject of a crime (illegal possession, sale, smuggling), and crimes in which a weapon or explosive used as an instrument of crime (murder, attempted murder, armed robbery, property damage, hooliganism). The study also includes cases of illegal use of traumatic firearms, which within the existing criminal legislation of Ukraine are classified as hooliganism. The article provides summary table on prices for certain types of weapons and ammunition in the regions of Ukraine based on the results of successful operations of weapons purchasing realized by law enforcement agencies. In general, the materials presented in the article are an additional source of criminalistics information and can serve as a basis for further analysis and research.  


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Lüdecke ◽  
Indrajeet Patil ◽  
Mattan S. Ben-Shachar ◽  
Brenton M. Wiernik ◽  
Philip Waggoner ◽  
...  

The see package is embedded in the easystats ecosystem, a collection of R packages that operate in synergy to provide a consistent and intuitive syntax when working with statistical models in the R programming language (R Core Team, 2021). Most easystats packages return comprehensive numeric summaries of model parameters and performance. The see package complements these numeric summaries with a host of functions and tools to produce a range of publication-ready visualizations for model parameters, predictions, and performance diagnostics. As a core pillar of easystats, the see package helps users to utilize visualization for more informative, communicable, and well-rounded scientific reporting.


Author(s):  
В.С. Безногих

The article provides an analysis of crime related to firearms, ammunition and explosives. It is written based on the results of the study of information on this category of crimes collected in open sources (law enforcement websites and media news resources). In contrast to the departmental statistics and narrative reports that serve certain tasks of law enforcement agencies, the present analysis attempts to describe additional qualitative characteristics for this category of crimes in order to identify more specific trends and determine the impact of the situation in south-eastern Ukraine caused by the armed aggression of the Russian Federation. Relying on his experience of work in the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) projects, the author of the study attempts to adapt and apply the principles of collecting of qualitative information from open sources, which are used to collect information on drugrelated crimes for the Drug Monitoring Platform in the Afghan Opiate Trade Project (AOPT). The study covers all types of crimes related to firearms, ammunition and explosives, both those in which the weapon is the subject of a crime (illegal possession, sale, smuggling), and crimes in which a weapon or explosive used as an instrument of crime (murder, attempted murder, armed robbery, property damage, hooliganism). The study also includes cases of illegal use of traumatic firearms, which within the existing criminal legislation of Ukraine are classified as hooliganism. The article provides summary table on prices for certain types of weapons and ammunition in the regions of Ukraine based on the results of successful operations of weapons purchasing realized by law enforcement agencies. In general, the materials presented in the article are an additional source of criminalistics information and can serve as a basis for further analysis and research. The article is a logical continuation of an article published last year based on the results of the 2019 study.


Author(s):  
Anatolii Yugov ◽  
Sergey Belykh

The Constitution, as the main universal and comprehensive legal document, establishes fundamental principles and defines the legal basis for development of public and state life in all politically significant spheres, serves as a guarantor of legitimacy and order, gives a boost to the development of society. The special political and legal nature of the constitution, the issues of its operation and the mechanism of its implementation are of great importance. In accordance to the authors’ approach, the mechanism of implementation of the Constitution of the Russian Federation includes the following components: 1) entry of the constitution into legal force; 2) its functions; 3) constitutional algorithm of unity and differentiation of public authority; 4) forms of implementation; 5) ways of implementation; 6) subjects of implementation; 7) objects of implementation; 8) institutions for modernization; 9) guarantees of implementation. The authors conclude that the modern scientific ideas of a rational mechanism of implementation of the Constitution of the Russian Federation contribute to solving the issues of economic and cultural development of the Russian society, help creating favorable conditions for proper law enforcement, strengthening legitimacy and order.


2020 ◽  
pp. 98-106
Author(s):  
V. V. Levin

The article is devoted to the analysis of judicial practice as the basis of law-making activity in the Russian Federation, on the basis of which it is possible to create a precedent. Case law in Russia is Advisory in nature and is not mandatory for law enforcement practice. Courts use the signs of case law in their decisions in the reasoned part. Signs of case law is a ruling of the constitutional court of the Russian Federation and regulations of the armed forces of the Russian Federation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 35-44
Author(s):  
L. A. Shmarov ◽  

Based on the analysis of citizens’ claims against medical organizations, as well as on the basis of the analysis of the courts’ consideration of such claims, significant differences were found in the amount of compensation for non-pecuniary damage under various conditions related to both the condition of the victim of medical assistance rendered with defects and on the number of patients. It was shown that it is necessary to further accumulate material in order to obtain a more objective picture of satisfied claims and unification in the Russian Federation. Similar calculations can be carried out for other situations related to the possibility of causing moral harm, for example, disseminating information defaming the honor and dignity of a citizen, or compensating moral harm caused by unlawful actions of a law enforcement officer during criminal proceedings. Using the established average values, the court can, on the basis of established factual circumstances, calculate the amount of compensation for non-pecuniary damage in a particular case.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
Mostafa Abotaleb ◽  
Tatiana Makarovskikh

COVID-19 is one of the biggest challenges that countries face at the present time, as infections and deaths change daily and because this pandemic has a dynamic spread. Our paper considers two tasks. The first one is to develop a system for modeling COVID-19 based on time-series models due to their accuracy in forecasting COVID-19 cases. We developed an “Epidemic. TA” system using R programming for modeling and forecasting COVID-19 cases. This system contains linear (ARIMA and Holt’s model) and non-linear (BATS, TBATS, and SIR) time-series models and neural network auto-regressive models (NNAR), which allows us to obtain the most accurate forecasts of infections, deaths, and vaccination cases. The second task is the implementation of our system to forecast the risk of the third wave of infections in the Russian Federation.


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