Macroeconomic determinants of earnings on shares: Evidence from Rosneft oil company

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 1352-1372
Author(s):  
E.A. Ignatenko ◽  
K.V. Krinichanskii
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Risk Premium ◽  
Oil Company ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Subject. The article investigates how macroeconomic variables influence the pricing for common stocks of Rosneft Oil Company. Objectives. The study identifies principal macroeconomic factors and evaluates their impact on the dynamism of stock exchange rates in the oil and gas sector. Methods. We rely upon econometric modeling and linear regression based on the least square method. The regression is tested for autocorrelation in residues, heteroskedasticity and non-strict multicollinearity. To arrive at correct standard errors of coefficients given the autocorrelation, we do the robust estimation of covariance matrix. Results. The dynamics of earnings on shares of Rosneft Oil Company was found to correlate with macroeconomic factors as follows. It has the linear dependency on the Brent price trend, real effective exchange rate of RUB, market risk premium. However, it is inverse to the price index of industrial producers. The earnings on shares were found to be most dependent on fluctuations of the price index of producers, foreign exchange rate and market risk premium. Conclusions and Relevance. Earnings on shares of the analyzable company and the group of macroeconomic factors reveal the relationship that is statistically considerable. The high determination coefficient and significance in large confidence intervals of regression coefficients are indicative of the high quality of the model. Hence, using macroeconomic variables as regressors, the model may be effective for evaluating and predicting earnings on shares in the oil and gas sector. The findings can be used for further research on macroeconomic shocks and their impact on prices for financial assets issued by the Russian oil and gas companies. The model can be applied to the fundamental analysis and prediction of stock exchange rates of identical companies.

scholarly journals PENGARUH KURS, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT DAN SOLVABILITAS TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM INVESTOR PADA PERUSAHAAN PERTAMBANGAN

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 6262
Author(s):  
Martina Carissa Dewi ◽  
Luh Gede Sri Artini
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Mining Company ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Regression Test

The level of return obtained by investors is influenced by microeconomic and macroeconomic factors. This study aims to obtain empirical evidence regarding the effect of exchange rates, Gross Domestic Product and solvency on stock returns. This research was conducted at the mining company in the coal sub-sector on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. All the coal mining sub-sector companies listed on the Stock Exchange for the period 2014-2017 used as the population. The method of determining the sample used is using a saturated sampling technique. Multiple linear regression test used as the data analysis on this research. Based on the results of the analysis of this study it was found that the exchange rate and GDP had a negative and significant effect on stock returns. The solvency proxied by DER has a positive and significant effect on stock returns. Keywords: Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product, Solvability and Return.

Efficiency evaluation of Indian oil and gas sector: data envelopment analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 362-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vikas Vikas ◽  
Rohit Bansal
Keyword(s):  
Data Envelopment Analysis ◽  
Technical Efficiency ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Scale Efficiency ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Purpose Data envelopment analysis (DEA), a non-parametric technique is used to assess the efficiency of decision-making units which are producing identical set of outputs using identical set of inputs. The purpose of this paper is to find the technical efficiency (TE), pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency (SE) levels of Indian oil and gas sector companies and to provide benchmark targets to the inefficient companies in order to achieve efficiency level. Design/methodology/approach In the present study, a group of 22 oil and gas companies which are listed on the National Stock Exchange for which the data were available for the period 2013–2017 has been considered. DEA has been performed to compare the efficiency levels of all companies. To measure efficiency, three input variables, namely, combined materials consumed and manufacturing expenses, employee benefit expenses and capital investment and two output variables – operating revenues and profit after tax (PAT) have been considered. On the basis of performance for the financial year ending 2017, benchmark targets based on DEA–CCR (Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes) model have been provided to the inefficient companies that should be focused upon by them to attain the efficiency level. The performance of the companies for the past five years has been examined to check the fluctuations in the various efficiency scores of the companies considered in the study over the years. Findings From the results obtained, it is observed that 59 percent, i.e. 13 out of 22 companies are technically efficient. By considering DEA BCC (Banker, Charnes and Cooper) model, 16 companies are observed to be pure technically efficient. In terms of SE, there are 14 such companies. The inefficient units need to improve in terms of input and output variables and for this motive, specified targets are assigned to them. Some of these companies need to upgrade significantly and the managers must take the concern earnestly. The study has also thrown light on the performance of the companies over last five years which shows Oil India Ltd, Gujarat State Petronet Ltd, Petronet LNG Ltd, IGL Ltd, Mahanagar Gas, Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd and BPCL Ltd as consistently efficient companies. Research limitations/implications The present study has made an attempt to evaluate the efficiency of Indian oil and gas sector. The results of the study have significant inferences for the policy makers and managers of the companies operating in the sector. The results of the study provide benchmark target level to the companies of Oil and Gas sector which can help the managers of the relatively less efficient companies to focus on the ways to improve efficiency. The improvement in efficiency of a company would not only benefit the shareholders, but also the investors and other stakeholders of the company. Originality/value In the context of Indian economy, very limited number of studies have focused to measure the efficiency of oil and gas sector in the context of Indian economy. The present study aims to provide the latest insight to the efficiency of the companies especially operating in the Indian oil and gas sector. Further, as per our knowledge, this study is distinctive in terms of analyzing the efficiency of Indian oil and gas sector for a period of five years. The longitudinal study of the sector efficiency provides a bird eye view of the average efficiency level and changes in the efficiency levels of the companies over the years.

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi Dan Indeks Dow Jones Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI)

KINDAI ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 542-562
Author(s):  
Delila Putri Syarina
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Quantitative Method ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Sampling Techniques ◽  
Jones Index ◽  
Stock Price Index

Abstract: This study aims to study both partially and simultaneously, large, Analysis, Analysis, Value, Exchange, Inflation, and the Dow Jones Index Against the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) and the dominant dominant variable on the Price Index Joint Stock (CSPI)).The method used in this study is a quantitative method and with a population of 10 (ten) years, samples were taken with census sampling techniques of 10 (ten) years per year-end period, research instruments using classical data assumptions - data used using regression linear multiple.The results of this study indicate that (1) Rupiah Exchange Rates, Inflation and the Dow Jones Index influence simultaneously on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (2) the Dow Jones Index is partially related to the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) in The Indonesian Stock Exchange, while the Rupiah Exchange Rate and Inflation are not partially on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (3) The dominant dominant variable on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange is the Dow Jones Index..Keywords  : Rupiah Exchange Rate, Inflation, Dow Jones Index and Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI)   Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui baik secara parsial dan simultan seberapa besar Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi Dan Indeks Dow Jones Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) serta variabel yang berpengaruh dominan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode kuantitatif dan dengan populasi sebanyak 10 (sepuluh) tahun, diambil sampel dengan teknik sampling sensus sebanyak 10 (sepuluh) tahun per periode akhir tahun, instrument penelitian uji asumsi klasik data – data diuji dengan menggunakan regresi linear berganda. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa (1) Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi dan Indeks Dow Jones berpengaruh secara simultan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (2) Indeks Dow Jones berpengaruh secara parsial terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia, sedangkan Nilai Tukar Rupiah dan Inflasi tidak berpengaruh secara parsial terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (3) Variabel yang berpengaruh dominan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia adalah Indeks Dow Jones. . Kata kunci :     Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi, Indeks Dow Jones dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG).

Dynamic Nexuses between Macroeconomic Variables and Sectoral Stock Indices: Reflection from Indian Manufacturing Industry

2020 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-269
Author(s):  
Sumit Kumar Maji ◽  
Arindam Laha ◽  
Debasish Sur
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Stock Indices

Determination of significant sector specific macroeconomic factors under the board manufacturing industry is an important task. In Indian context, using the monthly data on five major manufacturing sector specific indices (such as BSE-Basic Materials, BSE-Consumer Discretionary Goods and Services, BSE-Fast Moving Consumer Goods, BSE-Health Care and BSE-Industrials) and the macroeconomic variables (gold price, index of industrial production, wholesale price index, money supply, foreign portfolio investment ratio (FPIR), rate of interest, real effective exchange rate and crude oil price and economic policy uncertainty) for the period September, 2005 to November, 2016, the present study attempted to explore the significant sector specific macroeconomic variables in long run as well as short run. The empirical results obtained by applying the ARDL-UECM model suggested that economic policy uncertainty, FPIR and price factor were observed to be the most important determinants of all the five sectoral stock indices for the study period.

The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on the Performance of Stock Market in Sri Lanka

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 33-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shohani Upeksha Badullahewage
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Stock Market Performance

The main objective of this research is to analyze the vital impact of macroeconomic factors on the stock market performance in Sri Lanka. All the factors which have a direct impact on the working of the emerging stock market have hereby studied. The relationship between the pivotal factors such as inflation, gross domestic product, interest rates, and exchange rates has been properly conducted with the assistance of the indexes. The results of the analysis revealed that all these factors have an inseparable impact over the performance of the stock market and Sri Lankan stock market performance has eventually over gone through many ups and downs because of them as well. It has been revealed that among all the factors that have been discussed, inflation and exchange rates have comparatively higher effects on the stock market performance. It shows a fluctuation because of the unpredictable nature of these factors. Colombo Stock Exchange has seen a tremendous change in its performance over a period for which these factors have played a prominent as well as a vital role in it its functioning.

scholarly journals The Effect of Macro Economic Variables on Stock Return of Companies That Listed in Stock Exchange: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 108
Author(s):  
Aminullah Assagaf ◽  
Etty Murwaningsari ◽  
Juniati Gunawan ◽  
Sekar Mayangsari
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rates ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Inflation Rates

This study aims to analysis the effect of macroeconomic variables on the overall return of company shares which is a proxy with changes in the composite stock price index. This study uses secondary data in a period of 20 months from November 2016 to June 2018. While the analysis technique uses multiple linear regression This study found that macroeconomic variables consisting of inflation rates, interest rates, money supply, and foreign exchange rates, stock returns have a significant effect on companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

scholarly journals HE IMPACT OF INFLATION, CERTIFICATE OF BANK INDONESIA, AND EXCHANGE RATE OF IDR/USD ON THE INDONESIA COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Margarita Ekadjaja ◽  
Daisy Dianasari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Research Population ◽  
Stock Price Index

This research is done with the aim to know whether some macroeconomic variables, which are inflation rate, certificate of Bank Indonesia (SBI) rate, and exchange rate of IDR/USD have an impact on the movement of the composite stock price index (IHSG) at the Indonesia stock exchange (BEI) partially and simultaneously in the period of 2006–2014. The research population is inflation rate, SBI rate, and exchange rate of IDR/USD. Data analysis in this research is multiple regression by using time series monthly data of 2006–2014. Research results show that partially inflation rate gives positive significant impact on IHSG, SBI rate has negative significant impact on IHSG, and exchange rate of IDR/USD has positive significant impact on IHSG.  Simultaneously it shows that inflation, SBI rate, and exchange rate of IDR/USD have an impact on IHSG at BEI to the period of year 2006 – 2014.  Those variables affect IHSG by 58,74%, while other variables affect IHSG by 41,26%.  That information can be used by investors to make decision on their investment.Keywords: inflation, SBI, exchange rate, IHSG, BEI.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis of Islamabad Stock Exchange

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-93
Author(s):  
Nosheen Rasool ◽  
Muhammad Mubashir Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study was to analyze long-run causal relationship between ISE (Islamabad Stock Exchange) and macroeconomic variables in Pakistan and also find out the direction of causality. The impact of macroeconomic variables on stock prices of ISE has not been previously discussed by the researchers. The monthly data from January 2001 to December 2010 was used in this study. The set of macroeconomic variables include Exchange Rate (ER), Foreign Exchange Reserves (FER), Industrial Production Index (IPI), Interest Rate (IR), Imports (M), Money Supply (MS), Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Exports (X). Descriptive statistics and Unit root test, Johansen Co-integration Technique and Granger Causality Technique were employed to analyze the long-run and causal relationship between the macroeconomic variables and stock prices.  The results revealed that M showed positive and significant relationship but Foreign Exchange Reserves (FER) and Industrial Production Index (IPI) indicated positive and insignificant relationship with the stock prices. Exchange rate(ER), Money supply (MS) and  Whole sale price index(WPI) showed negative but significant relationship while Interest  rate (IR) and Export( X )indicated a negative and insignificant relationship with the stock prices. The findings of Granger Causality revealed that only exports showed a unidirectional causal relationship. 

scholarly journals SIGNIFICANT RELATIONSHIP INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL AND MACRO ECONOMICS: A CASE STUDY

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 112-118
Author(s):  
Ahmad Subagyo ◽  
Siti Zulaikha Wulandari ◽  
Desmadi Saharuddin
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Intellectual Capital ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Economic Variable ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Log Linear ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between intellectual capital of several companies in Indonesia and macroeconomic variables Indonesia during the period 2011-2017 at 61 companies listed on the Stock Exchange. In this study using several intellectual capital variables in 61 companies and some Indonesian macro-economic variables are intellectual capital variable, Indonesian bank interest rate, consumer price index, producer price index, exchange rate index, inflation. This paper uses multiple regression data analysis techniques with OLS proposal model, linear difference and log analysis. From the results of studies that have been done can be explained that with the OLS regression model the relationship between several variable intellectual capital with some macroeconomic variables partially and simultaneously significant, as well as the difference. With log linear regression model analysis relationship between several variable intellectual capital with some macro economic variable simultaneously significant and partially between some variable intellectual capital significant and not significant partially with macro economic variable.

scholarly journals Factors Shaping Agri-food Product Trade in Poland

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 1221-1228
Author(s):  
Piotr Bórawski ◽  
Mariola Grzybowska-Brzezińska ◽  
James William Dunn ◽  
Spiro E. Stefanou
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Food Product ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Total Import ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Internal And External Factors ◽  
The Impact

The objective of the paper is to recognize the role of internal and external factors in the trade balance. The analysis of the trade balance is useful to help formulate goals and premises of economy policy to properly allocate production means to eliminate the negative effects of trade liberalization. The authors have studied data about trade of agricultural commodities in the years 2000–2010. To measure the impact of macroeconomic variables used a regression model. The macroeconomic factors included: X1 (inflation), X2 (investment in agriculture and hunting), X3 (GDP) and X4 (exchange rate) and X5 (FAO food price index). We wanted to recognize the impact of macroeconomic factors on: Y1 (total export), Y2 (total import), Y3 (trade balance).

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