scholarly journals Exploring an integrated spatially model for land-use scenarios simulation in a metropolitan region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
H Dadashpoor ◽  
Hossein Panahi
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Current Trend ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Agricultural Lands ◽  
Ecological Resources ◽  
The Impact

Spatial simulation of land-use change scenarios in metropolitan areas is essential for analyzing both the causes and consequences of various future scenarios and is also valuable for land-use planning and management. However, current simulation models primarily focus on spatial and rarely on quantitative driving factors. This article aims to simulate future scenarios of land-use changes in the Tehran metropolitan region (TMR) by combining different models to fill this gap. Thus, in the first step, land-use changes were analyzed in the period 1985, 2000, and 2015. Then, by identifying the impact of driving factors and land-use transition potentials with Logistic regression (LR), land-use changes were allocated using the Cellular Automata (CA) method. Finally, with the validation of the model, four scenarios of the current trend(CT), socioeconomic growth(SEG), ecological-oriented(EO), and integrated development(ID) were suggested with the combination of the System Dynamic (SD) model. The results show that the trend of land-use changes in TMR has led to the destruction of grassland, agricultural, and uncultivated lands and the continuation of this trend will increase the damage of built-up areas on valuable natural and ecological resources. In this way, proximity to roads, distance from built-up areas, and natural factors had the greatest impact on changes. Based on future scenarios in 2030, the change in the SEG-scenario shows a rapid increase in built-up areas (2858km and encroachment on agricultural lands (2171km . In the EO-scenario, destruction of grassland and agricultural lands and the growth of built-up areas will be limited, while CT-scenario leads to the high growth of built-up areas along with destructive impacts on natural and open spaces. In the ID-scenario, the built-up areas and grasslands will increase to 2808km and 7438km , respectively. Accordingly, policy-makers can use simulation of different scenarios to mitigate probable consequences of land-use changes in the metropolitan regions. 2) 2) 2 2

scholarly journals Exploring an integrated spatially model for land-use scenarios simulation in a metropolitan region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
H Dadashpoor ◽  
Hossein Panahi
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Current Trend ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Agricultural Lands ◽  
Ecological Resources ◽  
The Impact

Spatial simulation of land-use change scenarios in metropolitan areas is essential for analyzing both the causes and consequences of various future scenarios and is also valuable for land-use planning and management. However, current simulation models primarily focus on spatial and rarely on quantitative driving factors. This article aims to simulate future scenarios of land-use changes in the Tehran metropolitan region (TMR) by combining different models to fill this gap. Thus, in the first step, land-use changes were analyzed in the period 1985, 2000, and 2015. Then, by identifying the impact of driving factors and land-use transition potentials with Logistic regression (LR), land-use changes were allocated using the Cellular Automata (CA) method. Finally, with the validation of the model, four scenarios of the current trend(CT), socioeconomic growth(SEG), ecological-oriented(EO), and integrated development(ID) were suggested with the combination of the System Dynamic (SD) model. The results show that the trend of land-use changes in TMR has led to the destruction of grassland, agricultural, and uncultivated lands and the continuation of this trend will increase the damage of built-up areas on valuable natural and ecological resources. In this way, proximity to roads, distance from built-up areas, and natural factors had the greatest impact on changes. Based on future scenarios in 2030, the change in the SEG-scenario shows a rapid increase in built-up areas (2858km and encroachment on agricultural lands (2171km . In the EO-scenario, destruction of grassland and agricultural lands and the growth of built-up areas will be limited, while CT-scenario leads to the high growth of built-up areas along with destructive impacts on natural and open spaces. In the ID-scenario, the built-up areas and grasslands will increase to 2808km and 7438km , respectively. Accordingly, policy-makers can use simulation of different scenarios to mitigate probable consequences of land-use changes in the metropolitan regions. 2) 2) 2 2

scholarly journals Evaluating The Relationship Between Spatial Temporal Land Use Changes And Climate Pattern Of Nilgiris District

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (09) ◽  
pp. 381-390
Author(s):  
M.Suguna Devakumari ◽  
◽  
S. Carolin Jeeva ◽  
R.Susan Poonguzhali ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Current Trend ◽  
Remote Sensing Images ◽  
Landsat 7 ◽  
The Nilgiris ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Due to deforestation, urbanization and land use changes, the Nilgiris district of Tamil Nadu has been impacted by climate variation. This study was carried out to explore the impact of the land use changes in Nilgiris District from 2011 to 2017using remote sensing images acquired from Landsat 7. Temperature and rainfall data of the study area were also obtained from IMD Pune. The results show that the current trend of decreasing forest area and increasing agricultural land, and the area also experienced a temperature increase of 0.4 ◦C between 2011 and 2017. This study is crucial for land planners and environmentalists to understand the impacts of land use change on the climate in Nilgiris District.

scholarly journals MODEL OF CLIMATE AND LAND-USE CHANGES IMPACT ON WATER SECURITY IN AMBON CITY, INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roland Alexander Barkey ◽  
Muh Faisal Mappiasse ◽  
Munajat Nursaputra
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Forest Area ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
The Impact

Ambon City is the center of national activities in Maluku province, established under Presidential Decree 77 issued in 2014 about spatial planning of Maluku Islands. Ambon is a strategic region in terms of development in agriculture and fisheries sectors. Development of the region caused this area to be extremely vulnerable to the issues on water security. Seven watersheds which are Air Manis, Hutumury, Passo, Tulehu, Wae Batu Merah, Wae Lela and Wae Sikula affect the water system in Ambon City. Therefore, this study was conducted to determine the impact of climate and land use change on water availability in seven watersheds in Ambon City. The analysis was performed using a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Model in order to analyze climate changes on the period of 1987-1996 (past), of 2004-2013 (present) and climate projection on the period 2035s (future) and equally to analyze land use data in 1996 and 2014. The results of the research indicated that land use in the study area has changed since 1996 to 2014. Forest area decreased around 32.45%, while residential areas and agriculture land increased 56.01% and 19.80%, respectively. The results of SWAT model presented the water availability amount to 1127.01 million m3/year on the period of 1987-1996. During the period of 2004-2013, it has been reduced to 1,076.55 million m3/year (around 4.48% decrease). The results of the prediction of future water availability in the period of 2035s estimated a decrease of water availability around 4.69% (1,026.09 million m3/year). Land use and climate change have greatly contributed to the water availability in seven watersheds of Ambon City. Ambon City is in need of land use planning especially the application of spatial plan. The maintenance of forest area is indispensable. In built-up areas, it is essential to implement green space and water harvesting in order to secure water availability in the future.

scholarly journals Spatial-Temporal Changes and Driving Factors of Land-Use Eco-Efficiency Incorporating Ecosystem Services in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 728
Author(s):  
Yahong Liu ◽  
Hailian Sun ◽  
Lei Shi ◽  
Huimin Wang ◽  
Zhai Xiu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Temporal Changes ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
Stirpat Model ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
The Impact

With rapid urbanization in China, the dramatic land-use changes are one of the most prominent features that have substantially affected the land ecosystems, thus seriously threatening sustainable development. However, current studies have focused more on evaluating the economic efficiency of land-use, while the loss and degradation of ecosystem services are barely considered. To address these issues, this study first proposed a land use-based input–output index system, incorporating the impact on ecosystem services value (ESV), and then by taking 30 provinces in China as a case study. We further employed the super-efficiency slacks-based model (Super-SBM) and the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model to explore the spatial–temporal changes and driving factors of the evaluated land-use eco-efficiency. We found that the evaluated ESV was 28.09 trillion yuan (at the price of 2000) in 2015, and that the total ESV experienced an inverted U-shaped trend during 2000–2015.The average land-use eco-efficiency exhibited a downward trend from 0.87 in 2000 to 0.68 in 2015 with distinct regional differences by taking into account the ESV. Our results revealed that northeastern region had the highest efficiency, followed by the eastern, western, and central region of China. Finally, we identified a U-shaped relationship between the eco-efficiency and land urbanization, and found that technological innovation made great contributions to the improvement of the eco-efficiency. These findings highlight the importance of the ESV in the evaluation of land-use eco-efficiency. Future land development and management should pay additional attention to the land ecosystems, especially the continuous supply of human well-being related ecosystem services.

scholarly journals A Model-Based Tool for Assessing the Impact of Land Use Change Scenarios on Flood Risk in Small-Scale River Systems—Part 1: Pre-Processing of Scenario Based Flood Characteristics for the Current State of Land Use

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 102
Author(s):  
Frauke Kachholz ◽  
Jens Tränckner
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Small Rivers ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Impact

Land use changes influence the water balance and often increase surface runoff. The resulting impacts on river flow, water level, and flood should be identified beforehand in the phase of spatial planning. In two consecutive papers, we develop a model-based decision support system for quantifying the hydrological and stream hydraulic impacts of land use changes. Part 1 presents the semi-automatic set-up of physically based hydrological and hydraulic models on the basis of geodata analysis for the current state. Appropriate hydrological model parameters for ungauged catchments are derived by a transfer from a calibrated model. In the regarded lowland river basins, parameters of surface and groundwater inflow turned out to be particularly important. While the calibration delivers very good to good model results for flow (Evol =2.4%, R = 0.84, NSE = 0.84), the model performance is good to satisfactory (Evol = −9.6%, R = 0.88, NSE = 0.59) in a different river system parametrized with the transfer procedure. After transferring the concept to a larger area with various small rivers, the current state is analyzed by running simulations based on statistical rainfall scenarios. Results include watercourse section-specific capacities and excess volumes in case of flooding. The developed approach can relatively quickly generate physically reliable and spatially high-resolution results. Part 2 builds on the data generated in part 1 and presents the subsequent approach to assess hydrologic/hydrodynamic impacts of potential land use changes.

scholarly journals Rural-Spatial Restructuring Promoted by Land-Use Transitions: A Case Study of Zhulin Town in Central China

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 234
Author(s):  
Dong Han ◽  
Jiajun Qiao ◽  
Qiankun Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Rural Development ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Central China ◽  
Rural Space ◽  
Spatial Restructuring ◽  
Local Actors ◽  
The Impact

Rural-spatial restructuring involves the spatial mapping of the current rural development process. The transformation of land-use morphologies, directly or indirectly, affects the practice of rural restructuring. Analyzing this process in terms of the dominant morphology and recessive morphology is helpful for better grasping the overall picture of rural-spatial restructuring. Accordingly, this paper took Zhulin Town in Central China as a case study area. We propose a method for studying rural-spatial restructuring based on changes in the dominant and recessive morphologies of land use. This process was realized by analyzing the distribution and functional suitability of ecological-production-living (EPL) spaces based on land-use types, data on land-use changes obtained over a 30-year observation period, and in-depth research. We found that examining rural-spatial restructuring by matching the distribution of EPL spaces with their functional suitability can help to avoid the misjudgment of the restructuring mode caused by the consideration of the distribution and structural changes in quantity, facilitating greater understanding of the process of rural-spatial restructuring. Although the distribution and quantitative structure of Zhulin’s EPL spaces have changed to differing degrees, ecological- and agricultural-production spaces still predominate, and their functional suitability has gradually increased. The spatial distribution and functional suitability of Zhulin are generally well matched, with 62.5% of the matched types being high-quality growth, and the positive effect of Zhulin’s spatial restructuring over the past 30 years has been significant. We found that combining changes in EPL spatial area and quantity as well as changes in functional suitability is helpful in better understanding the impact of the national macro-policy shift regarding rural development. Sustaining the positive spatial restructuring of rural space requires the timely adjustment of local actors in accordance with the needs of macroeconomic and social development, and a good rural-governance model is essential.

scholarly journals Impact of Land Use Change on Water Conservation: A Case Study of Zhangjiakou in Yongding River

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Tianshi Pan ◽  
Lijun Zuo ◽  
Zengxiang Zhang ◽  
Xiaoli Zhao ◽  
Feifei Sun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Hydrological Process ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Yongding River

The implementation of ecological projects can largely change regional land use patterns, in turn altering the local hydrological process. Articulating these changes and their effects on ecosystem services, such as water conservation, is critical to understanding the impacts of land use activities and in directing future land planning toward regional sustainable development. Taking Zhangjiakou City of the Yongding River as the study area—a region with implementation of various ecological projects—the impact of land use changes on various hydrological components and water conservation capacity from 2000 to 2015 was simulated based on a soil and water assessment tool model (SWAT). An empirical regression model based on partial least squares was established to explore the contribution of different land use changes on water conservation. With special focus on the forest having the most complex effects on the hydrological process, the impacts of forest type and age on the water conservation capacity are discussed on different scales. Results show that between 2000 and 2015, the area of forest, grassland and cultivated land decreased by 0.05%, 0.98% and 1.64%, respectively, which reduces the regional evapotranspiration (0.48%) and soil water content (0.72%). The increase in settlement area (42.23%) is the main reason for the increase in water yield (14.52%). Most land use covered by vegetation has strong water conservation capacity, and the water conservation capacity of the forest is particularly outstanding. Farmland and settlements tend to have a negative effect on water conservation. The water conservation capacity of forest at all scales decreased significantly with the growth of forest (p < 0.05), while the water conservation capacity of different tree species had no significant difference. For the study area, increasing the forest area will be an effective way to improve the water conservation function, planting evergreen conifers can rapidly improve the regional water conservation capacity, while planting deciduous conifers is of great benefit to long-term sustainable development.

Reconnaissance Mapping for Land-use Planning in the Natal Drakensberg, South Africa

1977 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald G. Garland ◽  
J. Pelham Chisholm ◽  
Colin R. Christian
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Mass Movement ◽  
Land Use Pattern ◽  
Erosion Rates ◽  
Reconnaissance Survey ◽  
Adequate Understanding ◽  
Geomorphological Processes ◽  
Detailed Work

Changes in land-use can have an important effect on rates of erosion and denudation. In order to avoid accelerating erosion rates, decision makers in land-use planning require adequate information on the contemporary geomorphological processes and hydrology of areas where modifications in the land-use pattern are envisaged. The first phase in the acquisition of the information is the reconnaissance survey, which shows where and how the erosional status of an area is likely to be affected, and also acts as a foundation on which to base more detailed work in the future.The Solitude area is an active erosional system, dominated by mass movement and fluvial processes. The rate of removal of material is likely to be increased by modifications in land-use which, from other points of view, would be considered entirely suitable for the area. Therefore, if accelerated denudation is to be avoided, projects involving land-use changes should be implemented only by those having an adequate understanding of the mechanism of geomorphological processes operating in the area.

scholarly journals Can land use changes alter carbon, nitrogen and major ion transport in subtropical brazilian streams?

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 317-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Mariano Lopes da Silva ◽  
Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud Ometto ◽  
Gré de Araújo Lobo ◽  
Walter de Paula Lima ◽  
Marcos Augusto Scaranello ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Sugar Cane ◽  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Major Ion ◽  
Se Brazil ◽  
Tropical Watersheds ◽  
The Impact

Several studies in tropical watersheds have evaluated the impact of urbanization and agricultural practices on water quality. In Brazil, savannas (known regionally as Cerrados) represent 23% of the country's surface, representing an important share to the national primary growth product, especially due to intense agriculture. The purpose of this study is to present a comprehensive evaluation, on a yearly basis, of carbon, nitrogen and major ion fluxes in streams crossing areas under different land use (natural vegetation, sugar cane and eucalyptus) in a savanna region of SE Brazil. Eucalyptus and sugar cane alter the transport of the investigated elements in small watersheds. The highest concentration of all parameters (abiotic parameters, ions, dissolved organic carbon DOC - and dissolved inorganic carbon - DIC) were found in Sugar Cane Watersheds (SCW). The observed concentrations of major cations in Eucalyptus Watersheds (EW) (Mg, Ca, K, Na), as well as DIN and DOC, were found frequently to be intermediate values between those of Savanna Watersheds (SW) and SCW, suggesting a moderate impact of eucalyptus plantations on the streamwater. Same trends were found in relation to ion and nutrient fluxes, where the higher values corresponded to SCW. It is suggested that sugar cane plantations might be playing an important role in altering the chemistry of water bodies.

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