scholarly journals Novel approaches to quantify the emergence of anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Luke Harrington
Keyword(s):  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Signal To Noise ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Human Interference ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Novel Approaches ◽  
The Impact

<p>Understanding how the climate system will respond to ongoing human interference is a question of profound societal importance. A significant barrier to quantifying the effect of human activity on the climate system is interpreting how the signal of anthropogenic change can be isolated and distinguished from the background noise of internal variability. An emerging framework in the scientific community is now to investigate signal-to-noise ratios as a more effective measure of the impact of human influence on the climate.  As the cumulative amount of greenhouse gases emitted by the global population continues to increase, emerging (human-induced) signal-to-noise ratios in temperatures are starting to become clear for highly aggregated spatial and temporal scales. However, some other climate phenomena, such as meteorological drought, exhibit a more complex response to anthropogenic forcings. Identifying how further warming will change the characteristics of such phenomena is therefore more difficult, despite the significant policy implications for both climate adaptation and mitigation.  In this thesis, I investigate novel approaches towards separating the relative signal of anthropogenic climate warming from internal variability for these cases of low signal-to-noise ratios. By more effectively understanding the drivers of emergent changes to the climate system, these results help to quantify, and thus communicate, the increasingly damaging effects of human interference on the climate system.</p>

scholarly journals Novel approaches to quantify the emergence of anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Luke Harrington
Keyword(s):  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Signal To Noise ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Human Interference ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Novel Approaches ◽  
The Impact

<p>Understanding how the climate system will respond to ongoing human interference is a question of profound societal importance. A significant barrier to quantifying the effect of human activity on the climate system is interpreting how the signal of anthropogenic change can be isolated and distinguished from the background noise of internal variability. An emerging framework in the scientific community is now to investigate signal-to-noise ratios as a more effective measure of the impact of human influence on the climate.  As the cumulative amount of greenhouse gases emitted by the global population continues to increase, emerging (human-induced) signal-to-noise ratios in temperatures are starting to become clear for highly aggregated spatial and temporal scales. However, some other climate phenomena, such as meteorological drought, exhibit a more complex response to anthropogenic forcings. Identifying how further warming will change the characteristics of such phenomena is therefore more difficult, despite the significant policy implications for both climate adaptation and mitigation.  In this thesis, I investigate novel approaches towards separating the relative signal of anthropogenic climate warming from internal variability for these cases of low signal-to-noise ratios. By more effectively understanding the drivers of emergent changes to the climate system, these results help to quantify, and thus communicate, the increasingly damaging effects of human interference on the climate system.</p>

scholarly journals Reply to “Comment on ‘The Impact of Recent Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake Data on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity’”

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 397-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Lewis ◽  
Judith Curry
Keyword(s):  
Time Windows ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractCowtan and Jacobs assert that the method used by Lewis and Curry in 2018 (LC18) to estimate the climate system’s transient climate response (TCR) from changes between two time windows is less robust—in particular against sea surface temperature bias correction uncertainty—than a method that uses the entire historical record. We demonstrate that TCR estimated using all data from the temperature record is closely in line with that estimated using the LC18 windows, as is the median TCR estimate using all pairs of individual years. We also show that the median TCR estimate from all pairs of decade-plus-length windows is closely in line with that estimated using the LC18 windows and that incorporating window selection uncertainty would make little difference to total uncertainty in TCR estimation. We find that, when differences in the evolution of forcing are accounted for, the relationship over time between warming in CMIP5 models and observations is consistent with the relationship between CMIP5 TCR and LC18’s TCR estimate but fluctuates as a result of multidecadal internal variability and volcanism. We also show that various other matters raised by Cowtan and Jacobs have negligible implications for TCR estimation in LC18.

scholarly journals Public reporting of performance measures in long-term care in Canada: does it make a difference?

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Poldrugovac ◽  
J E Amuah ◽  
H Wei-Randall ◽  
P Sidhom ◽  
K Morris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Performance Measures ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Public Reporting ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Care Facilities ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Evidence of the impact of public reporting of healthcare performance on quality improvement is not yet sufficient to draw conclusions with certainty, despite the important policy implications. This study explored the impact of implementing public reporting of performance indicators of long-term care facilities in Canada. The objective was to analyse whether improvements can be observed in performance measures after publication. Methods We considered 16 performance indicators in long-term care in Canada, 8 of which are publicly reported at a facility level, while the other 8 are privately reported. We analysed data from the Continuing Care Reporting System managed by the Canadian Institute for Health Information and based on information collection with RAI-MDS 2.0 © between the fiscal years 2011 and 2018. A multilevel model was developed to analyse time trends, before and after publication, which started in 2015. The analysis was also stratified by key sample characteristics, such as the facilities' jurisdiction, size, urban or rural location and performance prior to publication. Results Data from 1087 long-term care facilities were included. Among the 8 publicly reported indicators, the trend in the period after publication did not change significantly in 5 cases, improved in 2 cases and worsened in 1 case. Among the 8 privately reported indicators, no change was observed in 7, and worsening in 1 indicator. The stratification of the data suggests that for those indicators that were already improving prior to public reporting, there was either no change in trend or there was a decrease in the rate of improvement after publication. For those indicators that showed a worsening trend prior to public reporting, the contrary was observed. Conclusions Our findings suggest public reporting of performance data can support change. The trends of performance indicators prior to publication appear to have an impact on whether further change will occur after publication. Key messages Public reporting is likely one of the factors affecting change in performance in long-term care facilities. Public reporting of performance measures in long-term care facilities may support improvements in particular in cases where improvement was not observed before publication.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Amendment of Taiwan’s Certified Public Accountant Act in 2007 on Large Accounting Firms

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1229
Author(s):  
Chung-Cheng Yang ◽  
Jianxiong Chen ◽  
Wen-Chi Yang
Keyword(s):  
Policy Implications ◽  
Certified Public Accountant ◽  
Accounting Firms ◽  
Survey Report ◽  
Audit Firms ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Theory Of Law ◽  
Revenue Function ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Public Accountant

Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission of the Executive Yuan promulgated the fully amended Certified Public Accountant Act in 2007, which directly led to significant changes in accounting law. From the perspective of the economic theory of law, this study investigates the amendment of the Certified Public Accountant Act resulting in an increase or decrease in the overall revenue and different revenue shares of accounting firms, and puts forward measures that should be taken by accounting firms and stakeholders. We focus on large accounting firms and divide the sample period into before and after 2008. This study uses the translog revenue function and revenue share functions of the public accounting industry, and based on the 1989–2017 Survey Report of Audit Firms in Taiwan, and we find that the amendment of the Certified Public Accountant Act has had a positive effect on overall revenue, increasing overall revenue and the overall management advisory services shares, and in reducing the overall accounting and auditing shares and tax services shares of large accounting firms. Additional analyses provide regulators with public policy implications and provide accounting firms with managerial information.

scholarly journals Assessing the Economic and Environmental Impacts of Alternative Renewable Portfolio Standards: Winners and Losers

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3319
Author(s):  
Jamal Mamkhezri ◽  
Leonard A. Malczynski ◽  
Janie M. Chermak
Keyword(s):  
New Mexico ◽  
Environmental Impacts ◽  
The State ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Renewable Portfolio Standard ◽  
County Level ◽  
Renewable Portfolio Standards ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Output Analysis ◽  
The Impact

State-mandated renewable portfolio standards affect substantial portions of the total U.S. electricity supply. Renewable portfolio standards are environmentally motivated policies, yet they have the potential to greatly impact economy. There is not an agreement in the literature on the impact of renewable portfolio standards policies on regional economies, especially on job creation. By integrating various methodologies including econometrics, geographic information system, and input–output analysis into a unique system dynamics model, this paper estimates the economic and environmental impacts of various renewable portfolio standards scenarios in the state of New Mexico, located in Southwestern U.S. The state is endowed with traditional fossil fuel resources and substantial renewable energy potential. In this work we estimated and compared the economic and environmental tradeoffs at the county level under three renewable portfolio standards: New Mexico’s original standard of 20% renewables, the recently adopted 100% renewables standard, and a reduced renewable standard of 10%. The final one would be a return to a more traditional generation profile. We found that while the 20% standard has the highest market-based economic impact on the state as a whole, it is not significantly different from other scenarios. However, when environmental impacts are included, the 100% standard yields the highest value. In addition, while the state level economic impacts across the three scenarios are not significantly different, the county-level impacts are substantial. This is especially important for a state like New Mexico, which has a high reliance on energy for economic development. A higher renewable portfolio standard appears to be an economic tool to stimulate targeted areas’ economic growth. These results have policy implications.

scholarly journals Impact of the municipal merger on watershed management: a study of Lake Kasumigaura, Japan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takeshi Mizunoya ◽  
Noriko Nozaki ◽  
Rajeev Kumar Singh
Keyword(s):  
Watershed Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Water Environment ◽  
Reduction Rate ◽  
Oxygen Demand ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Pollution Reduction ◽  
Lake Kasumigaura ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn the early 2000s, Japan instituted the Great Heisei Consolidation, a national strategy to promote large-scale municipal mergers. This study analyzes the impact that this strategy could have on watershed management. We select the Lake Kasumigaura Basin, the second largest lake in Japan, for the case study and construct a dynamic expanded input–output model to simulate the ecological system around the Lake, the socio-environmental changes over the period, and their mutual dependency for the period 2012–2020. In the model, we regulate and control the following water pollutants: total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and chemical oxygen demand. The results show that a trade-off between economic activity and the environment can be avoided within a specific range of pollution reduction, given that the prefectural government implements optimal water environment policies, assuming that other factors constraining economic growth exist. Additionally, municipal mergers are found to significantly reduce the budget required to improve the water environment, but merger budget efficiency varies nonlinearly with the reduction rate. Furthermore, despite the increase in financial efficiency from the merger, the efficiency of installing domestic wastewater treatment systems decreases drastically beyond a certain pollution reduction level and eventually reaches a limit. Further reductions require direct regulatory instruments in addition to economic policies, along with limiting the output of each industry. Most studies on municipal mergers apply a political, administrative, or financial perspective; few evaluate the quantitative impact of municipal mergers on the environment and environmental policy implications. This study addresses these gaps.

The Impact of the Business Environment on the Formalization of Informal Firms. The Case of Kosovo

Südosteuropa ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 505-529
Author(s):  
Kujtim Zylfijaj ◽  
Dimitar Nikoloski ◽  
Nadine Tournois
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Tax Reforms ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Characteristics Analysis ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe research presented here investigates the impact of the business environment on the formalization of informal firms, using firm-level data for 243 informal firms in Kosovo. The findings indicate that business-environment variables such as limited access to financing, the cost of financing, the unavailability of subsidies, tax rates, and corruption have a significant negative impact on the formalization of informal firms. In addition, firm-level characteristics analysis suggests that the age of the firm also exercises a significant negative impact, whereas sales volume exerts a significant positive impact on the formalization of informal firms. These findings have important policy implications and suggest that the abolition of barriers preventing access to financing, as well as tax reforms and a consistent struggle against corruption may have a positive influence on the formalization of informal firms. On the other hand, firm owners should consider formalization to be a means to help them have greater opportunities for survival and growth.

scholarly journals Do Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk Lead to Environmental Degradation? Evidence from Emerging Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5866
Author(s):  
Muhammad Khalid Anser ◽  
Qasim Raza Syed ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean ◽  
Andrew Adewale Alola ◽  
Munir Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Ecological Footprint ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

Since the turn of twenty first century, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) have escalated across the globe. These two factors have both economic and environmental impacts. However, there exists dearth of literature that expounds the impact of EPU and GPR on environmental degradation. This study, therefore, probes the impact of EPU and GPR on ecological footprint (proxy for environmental degradation) in selected emerging economies. Cross-sectional dependence test, slope heterogeneity test, Westerlund co-integration test, fully modified least ordinary least square estimator, dynamic OLS estimator, and augmented mean group estimator are employed to conduct the robust analyses. The findings reveal that EPU and non-renewable energy consumption escalate ecological footprint, whereas GPR and renewable energy plunge ecological footprint. In addition, findings from the causality test reveal both uni-directional and bi-directional causality between a few variables. Based on the findings, we deduce several policy implications to accomplish the sustainable development goals in emerging economies.

scholarly journals Tolerance, Cultural Diversity and Economic Growth: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Osama Alhendi ◽  
József Tóth ◽  
Péter Lengyel ◽  
Péter Balogh
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Cultural Diversity ◽  
English Language ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Social Tolerance ◽  
Solow Model ◽  
Related Equation ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to examine the impact of social tolerance of cultural diversity, and the ability to speak widely spoken languages, on economic performance. Based on the literature, the evidence is still controversial and unclear. Therefore, the study used panel data relating to (99) non-English speaking economies during the time period between 2009 and 2017. Following the augmented Solow model approach, the related equation was expanded, in this study, to include (besides human capital) social tolerance, the English language (as a lingua franca) and the level of openness. The model was estimated using the two-step system GMM approach. The results show that social tolerance of diversity and English language competence have a positive, but insignificant impact on the economy. Regarding policy implications, government and decision-makers can avoid the costs deriving from cultural diversity by adopting democratic and effective institutions that aim to achieve cultural justice and recognition, which, in turn, enhance the level of tolerance, innovation and productivity in the economy. Moreover, to ease intercultural communication within heterogeneous communities, it is necessary to invest in enhancing the quality of second language education which is necessary to make society more tolerant and the country more open to the global economy.

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