scholarly journals Avaliação do BRAMS na Previsão Numérica de Temperatura e Umidade Relativa do Ar para o Estado da Paraíba (Evaluation of BRAMS in Numerical Prediction of Temperature and Relative Humidity in State of Paraiba)

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 463
Author(s):  
Everson Batista Mariano ◽  
Enilson Palmeira Calvacanti ◽  
Herika Pereira Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Model ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Model System ◽  
Numerical Prediction ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Model ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Model System ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Almost All

Neste trabalho foram avaliadas as previsões numéricas feitas pelo modelo numérico Brazilian Developments on the Regional Atmospheric Model System – BRAMS conforme execução em produção na UFCG. Foram analisadas as variáveis meteorológicas: temperatura do ar e umidade relativa do ar em superfície. A comparação foi feita com dados coletados em 19 estações meteorológicas automáticas, espalhadas pelos estados da Paraíba, Pernambuco e alagoas, pertencentes ao Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia - INMET. Os resultados mostram que os valores de temperatura do ar observados e estimados pelo modelo BRAMS mostram-se satisfatórios para até 5 dias em quase todas as localidades. As diferenças entre o observado e o estimado pelo modelo BRAMS, para a umidade relativa do ar, foram menos evidentes em comparação com a temperatura do ar. Palavras-Chaves: BRAMS, Dados Observados, Temperatura, Umidade Relativa.    Evaluation of BRAMS in Numerical Prediction of Temperature and Relative Humidity in State of Paraiba    ABSTRACT In this work we evaluate the predictions made by numerical model Developments on the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Model System - BRAMS as implemented in production at the UFCG. We analyzed the meteorological variables: air temperature and relative humidity at the surface. The comparison was made with data collected from 19 automatic weather stations, scattered over the states of Paraiba, Pernambuco and Alagoas, belonging to the National Institute of Meteorology - INMET. The results show that the values of air temperature observed and predicted by the model BRAMS was satisfactory for up to 5 days in almost all locations. The differences between the observed and estimated by the model BRAMS, for relative humidity were less evident in comparison with the air temperature.  Keywords: BRAMS, Observed Data, Temperature, Relative Humidity.

scholarly journals Evento extremo de chuva-vazão na bacia hidrográfica do rio Araguari, Amapá, Brasil

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (spe) ◽  
pp. 95-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Cavalcanti da Cunha ◽  
Jefferson Erasmo De Souza Vilhena ◽  
Eldo Silva Dos Santos ◽  
Jaci Maria Bilhalva Saraiva ◽  
Paulo Afonso Fischer Kuhn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Model System ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Model ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Model System

O objetivo da investigação foi analisar vazões extremas ocorridas entre 9 e 14 de abril de 2011 na bacia do Rio Araguari-AP. A metodologia consistiu de três etapas principais: 1) re-análise da precipitação estimada pelo Modelo BRAMS (Brazilian in Development Regional Atmospheric Model System),utilizando como suporte a sinótica do mesmo período; 2) análise de vazão nas seções de monitoramento hidrológico em Porto Platon, Capivara e Serra do Navio (ADCP-Accustic Doppler Profiller Current); 3) análise estatística da série histórica de vazões máximas em Porto Platon utilizando distribuição de Gumbel. Observou-se que o modelo BRAMS capturou parcialmente o padrão do sistema de precipitação quando comparado com a análise sinótica e com os dados da literatura, mas demandando ainda otimização na representação de respostas hidrológicas extremas. Em Porto Platon foi registrada uma vazão recorde de 4036 m3/s, cujo comportamento foi analisado sob a ótica dos mecanismos disponíveis de monitoramento no Estado. Concluiu-se que tais eventos extremos são pouco detectáveis e oferecem riscos consideráveis aos usuários da bacia. A previsão de vazão, baseada na série hidrológica disponível, era de 100 anos de retorno, mas as análises revelaram que este período seria de 360 anos, indicando significativa fragilidade do sistema de previsão de eventos extremos no Estado.

scholarly journals Um estudo inter-comparativo de previsão sazonal estatística-dinâmica de precipitação no nordeste do Brasil

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 354-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Maria Brabo Alves ◽  
Alexandre Araújo Costa ◽  
Sérgio Sousa Sombra ◽  
José Nilson Bezerra Campos ◽  
Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Model System ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Model ◽  
Regional Downscaling ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Model System

Apesar dos avanços da modelagem dinâmica da atmosfera nas últimas duas décadas do século 20 as aplicações com modelagem empírica ainda têm sido muito utilizadas em função do seu fácil uso e pouca dependência de recursos computacionais. Neste estudo é mostrada uma comparação dos resultados de simulação de precipitação para o Nordeste do Brasil (NEB) - 1971-2000 obtido por modelagem dinâmica de grande escala e regional (downscaling) e a previsão de um método de modelagem empírica K´neigbhors. Foram usados o modelo de circulação geral da atmosfera ECHAM4.5, e dois modelos regionais, o Modelo Regional Espectral (MRE/97) do National Centers for Atmospheric Prediction- NCEP e o Regional Atmospheric Model System (RAMS) desenvolvido na Universidade do Colorado. Os modelos regionais foram aninhados aos dados simulados pelo ECHAM4.5 tendo como condição de contorno a Temperatura da Superfície do Mar observada no período de fevereiro a maio. Os resultados mostraram que o modelo empírico apresentou menor erro absoluto nos períodos fevereiro a abril (FMA) e março a maio (MAM) que os modelos dinâmicos em áreas do no norte do Maranhão e Piauí, oeste e sul do Ceará, centro-sul do Piauí e oeste e nordeste da Bahia. Quanto ao bias, o ECHAM4.5 e o MRE/97 mostraram um bias úmido em grande parte do NEB, porém com um valor médio para o setor norte do NEB (2ºS-12ºS e 45ºW-37ºW) mais próximo do observado. Para o RAMS e o método análogo houve um predomínio de um bias seco sobre o NEB, com valores em magnitudes mais distantes do observado. A previsibilidade (Heidke Skill) em três categorias Seca (S), Normal (N), Chuvosa (C), mostrou que o método análogo tem baixo Skill, entre 0,1 e 0,3 em todas as categorias, enquanto os modelos dinâmicos apresentaram Skill superiores, com valores maiores para as categorias S e C (da ordem de 0,4 a 0,5), até superiores a 0,6 em algumas áreas do setor norte do NEB para a categoria C como visto nos resultados dos modelos ECHAM4.5 e MRE/97.

scholarly journals Human Thermal Comfort Situation in the Goller (Lakes) District of Turkey

2016 ◽  
pp. 137-144
Author(s):  
Yuksel Guclu
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Thermal Comfort ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Human Thermal Comfort ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Relative Humidity Data ◽  
Recreation Activities

Abstract In this study, the determination of the human thermal comfort situation in the Goller District (in the Mediterranean Region) of Turkey has been aimed. In the direction of the aim, the air temperature and relative humidity data of total 11 meteorology stations have been examined according to The Thermo-hygrometric Index (THI) and the New Summer Simmer Index (SSI). According to this, it has been determined that the thermal comfort conditions are not appropriate in the period of October-May on average monthly. The months of June and September are the most appropriate to almost all kinds of tourism and recreation activities in the outdoor in terms of thermal comfort. When THI and SSI indices’ values are evaluated together, the periods between 5th – 25th June and 29th August-16th September are the most appropriate periods in the study area on average in terms of the thermal comfort for the tourism and recreation activities in the outdoor. Keywords: Thermal comfort, human health, The Thermo-Hygrometric Index, The Summer Simmer Index, Goller District, Turkey.

scholarly journals THIRTEEN YEARS OF WEATHER STATISTICS AT SAN PEDRO MARTIR OBSERVATORY

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 295-319
Author(s):  
I. Plauchu-Frayn ◽  
E. Colorado ◽  
M. G. Richer ◽  
C. Herrera-Vázquez
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
San Pedro ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Sierra San Pedro Martir ◽  
Rain Precipitation

We present weather statistics for thirteen years of data gathered with the meteorological stations at Observatorio Astronómico Nacional in the Sierra San Pedro Mártir (OAN-SPM) over the period 2007–2019. These weather stations include sensors that measure various climatological variables. The median values of the air temperature are 10.3° C and 7.0° C for daytime and nighttime, respectively. The relative humidity follows a seasonal variation with April-June being the driest months. The median values for the sustained wind speed are 11 and 14 km hr-1 for daytime and nighttime data, respectively. Preferred wind directions are SSW and North. Sustained winds are stronger at night and during December, January and February. The annual mean rain precipitation is 313 mm, most of which occurs during the summer season as afternoon thunderstorms.

scholarly journals Modelling investigation of water droplet evaporative freezing in artificial snowmaking

2019 ◽  
Vol 128 ◽  
pp. 06013
Author(s):  
Georges El Achkar ◽  
Aiqiang Chen ◽  
Rachid Bennacer ◽  
Bin Liu
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transfer ◽  
Numerical Model ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Water Droplet ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Comsol Multiphysics ◽  
Initial Diameter ◽  
Air Space ◽  
Mass And Heat Transfer

In this paper, a modelling investigation of water droplet evaporative freezing was conducted in order to better understand the snowmaking process and hence to optimise the design of the artificial snowmaking device. To this end, mass and heat transfer theoretical models of a single water droplet cooling in an air space were established and implemented in a numerical model developed using the software COMSOL Multiphysics. The effects of the air temperature, relative humidity and velocity and the water droplet initial diameter and temperature on this process were identified and analysed, and their appropriate ranges for the snowmaking were determined.

scholarly journals Reaching the lower stratosphere: validating an extended vertical grid for COSMO

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 483-520
Author(s):  
J. Eckstein ◽  
S. Schmitz ◽  
R. Ruhnke
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Model ◽  
Lee Waves ◽  
Vertical Grid ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. This study presents an extended vertical grid for the regional atmospheric model COSMO, used for numerical weather prediction, reaching up to 33 km. The extended setup has been used to stably simulate eleven months in a domain covering central and northern Europe. Temperature and relative humidity have been validated using radio sonde data in polar and temperate latitudes, focussing on the stratosphere. Temperature values are reproduced very well by the model. Relative humidity could only be met in the mean over the whole time period after excluding data from Russian stations, which showed significantly higher values. A study of orographically induced lee waves over Iceland, well visible in the model but not in the regridded boundary data (ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalysis), showcases the advantage and applicability of the model in the extended vertical grid.

scholarly journals Reaching the lower stratosphere: validating an extended vertical grid for COSMO

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 1839-1855 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Eckstein ◽  
S. Schmitz ◽  
R. Ruhnke
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Radiosonde Data ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Scale Modeling ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Model ◽  
Vertical Grid ◽  
The Stability

Abstract. This study presents an extended vertical grid for the regional atmospheric model COSMO (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling) reaching up to 33 km. The extended setup has been used to stably simulate 11 months in a domain covering central and northern Europe. Temperature and relative humidity have been validated using radiosonde data in polar and temperate latitudes, focussing on the polar and mid-latitude stratosphere over Europe. Temperature values are reproduced very well by the model. Relative humidity could only be met in the mean over the whole time period after excluding data from Russian stations, which showed significantly higher values. A sensitivity study shows the stability of the model against different forcing intervals and damping layer heights.

NUMERICAL MODELING OF STORM SURGES, WIND WAVES AND FLOODING IN THE TAGANROG BAY

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Fomin ◽  
Vladimir Fomin ◽  
Dmitrii Alekseev ◽  
Dmitrii Alekseev ◽  
Dmitrii Lazorenko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Model ◽  
Sea Level Oscillations ◽  
Flooding And Drying ◽  
Flooded Area ◽  
Taganrog Bay

Storm surges and wind waves are ones of the most important hydrological characteristics, which determine dynamics of the Sea of Azov. Extreme storm surges in Taganrog Bay and flooding in the Don Delta can be formed under the effect of strong western winds. In this work the sea level oscillations and wind waves in the Taganrog Bay were simulated by means of the coupled SWAN+ADCIRC numerical model, taking into account the flooding and drying mechanisms. The calculations were carried out on an unstructured mesh with high resolution. The wind and atmospheric pressure fields for the extreme storm from 20 to 28 of September, 2014 obtained from WRF regional atmospheric model were used as forcing. The analysis of simulation results showed the following. The western and northern parts of the Don Delta were the most flood-prone during the storm. The size of the flooded area of the Don Delta exceeded 50%. Interaction of storm surge and wind wave accelerated the flooding process, increased the size of the flooded area and led to the intensification of wind waves in the upper of Taganrog Bay due to the general rise of the sea level.

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