DIABETES MELLITUS PREDICTION;
ABSTRACT… Background: The rapid change in lifestyles and dietary has led to a pandemic of diabetes mellitus. The diagnosis ofdiabetes mellitus sometimes requires 2 hr OGTT sampling. Recent evidence has shown that there are lipid related abnormalitiesassociated with diabetes mellitus, so a consideration comes in for their utilization as a marker to support diabetes mellitus. Objective: (1)To correlate serum total cholesterol, triglycerides and ALT with fasting blood glucose (2). To predict diagnosis of diabetes mellitus usingabove serum markers. Design: Cross-sectional analysis, descriptive study. Place and duration of study: This study was carried outbetween Mar-2010 to Jan-2011 at the department of pathology, PNS RAHAT in collaboration with PNS SHIFA. Subjects and methods: Atotal of 251 subjects were screened for presence of glucose dysregulation. Based upon the results of fasting blood glucose, subjectswere grouped as having normal glucose tolerance (NGT), impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus (NDDM).A comparison of lipids including triglycerides, total cholesterol and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) were made in the above groups tomeasure the differences between the above mentioned three groups. ALT, triglyceride and total cholesterol were correlated with results offasting blood glucose through pearson’s correlation. Later the performance of different cut-offs of triglycerides, total cholesterol and twomathematical models [{Factor-I=FBG (mmol/L) + triglycerides (mmol/L)} and {Factor-II=FBG (mmol/L) + triglycerides (mmol/L) +total cholesterol (mmol/L)}] were evaluated for detecting diabetes mellitus against the gold standard 2 hr OGTT in 71 subjects. Results:The results of triglycerides, total cholesterol and serum ALT between the three groups were as: [{Triglycerides: NGT =1.91, IFG=2.10,NDDM= 2.75, p=0.003} {total cholesterol: NGT=5.03, IFG=5.19, NDDM=5.74, p=0.056} {ALT:NGT=28.47, IFG=27.95,NDDM=25.78, p=0.846}]. Most correlation was found between serum triglycerides and fasting blood glucose (r2=0.235, p<0.001);while serum total cholesterol and ALT showed lesser correlations {(total cholesterol:r2= 0.172, P=0.007), (ALT:r2= 0.010,p=0.877)}. While triglycerides demonstrated superiority in terms of sensitivity to total cholesterol for detection of diabetes mellitus, thefactors incorporating lipids and glucose had the highest overall diagnostic efficiency. Conclusions: Triglycerides and total cholesterollevels rise from normoglycemic individuals to subjects having impaired fasting glucose and newly diagnosed diabetics. The inclusion oftriglycerides and total cholesterol for diagnosis of diabetes mellitus improves the chances of for detection of diabetes mellitus.