Retail and Consumer Prices, 1955-1963

1964 ◽  
Vol 30 ◽  
pp. 44-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. A. H. Godley ◽  
D. A. Rowe
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
National Income ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
The Other ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Unit Costs ◽  
Correct Analysis ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Retail Prices

This paper gives an account of a method of forecasting the Ministry of Labour's retail prices index, and of deriving from it a forecast of the consumer price index. (This is the index used in the National Income statistics to deflate the value of consumers' expenditure to volume terms.) Good forecasting obviously has to be based on a correct analysis of the factors which determine price changes; the article throws light on the way in which cost changes are taken into account when prices are changed. It seems that retail prices (apart from seasonal food prices) do not respond directly to short-term fluctuations in demand and output. Businessmen do not raise prices because demand suddenly rises; nor on the other hand do they lower them when output moves up sharply and unit costs fall. The analysis, therefore, provides further support for the ‘normal cost’ theory of pricing—that businessmen set prices by calculating their costs when working at some normal capacity, and add a conventional margin.

Errors in National Institute Forecasts of Personal Incomes, Inflation and Employment, 1965-75

1976 ◽  
Vol 78 ◽  
pp. 48-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.J.H. Dean
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
The Other ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Current Price ◽  
Personal Incomes

This article examines the accuracy of the National Institute's forecasts of incomes, inflation and employment from 1965 to 1975. It is found that in recent years the Institute has tended to underestimate inflation, although less seriously for the consumer price index than the other current price variables studied. The accuracy of the forecasts has generally increased in relative terms, although it has deteriorated in absolute terms. The forecasting performance in 1974 was particularly poor but there has been a distinct improvement in 1975 and 1976.

scholarly journals Törnqvist Formula for Сalculating a Consumer Price Index in Russia: Theory and Practice

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 87-94
Author(s):  
М. A. Kozlova
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Consumer Market ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Realistic Description ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Main Consumer

The article reflects the author’s position on the adjustment of the so-called substitution bias, which affects the value of the consumer price index, currently calculated using the Laspeyres formula. The author proposes a solution to the problem of the adequacy of statistical measurements of the dynamics of consumer prices in the case when, as a result of changing cost of the consumer basket, a buyer replaces a relatively expensive product with a relatively cheaper one. This solution is based on the existing index construction methodology (axiomatic, economic and stochastic approaches). The article substantiates the use of the Törnqvist formula, which has better properties in comparison with other formulae used in the construction of superlative indices. The authors calculated the Törnqvist price index for Russia based on Rosstat methodology and data using country-level quarterly group price indices and shares of consumer spending. To evaluate the results of empirical testing Laspeyres price index was compiled using the same quarterly data as the Törnqvist index. The values of the Törnqvist price index in most cases are less than the price dynamics obtained according to the Laspeyres formula. This conclusion is proved both theoretically and empirically, and it is confirmed for Russia as well. However, due to the non-observance of the conditions of smooth trends in consumer prices, the difference between the values of the Törnqvist and Laspeyres indices is significantly larger in certain quarters than that presented in empirical studies in other countries. Consumer price index, calculated using the Törnqvist formula, in the system of indicators of price statistics in Russia can be defined as an indicator that specifies the main consumer price index. Calculation of its value is necessary for a more realistic description of the processes taking place in the consumer market.

scholarly journals Analisis Indeks Harga Konsumen di Indonesia Melalui Pendekatan Kointegrasi

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 110-118
Author(s):  
Muhamad Muin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the rupiah exchange rate (RER) and the money supply (M1) on the outgrowth of the consumer price index (CPI) in Indonesia. The data used in this study are monthly data series from January 2005 to January 2019. The results of this empirical study shows that there is a relationship between RER and M1 on CPI in the long term and there is a correction in the short term balance (ECM) which is influenced by M1. All of these variables are significant at α = 5% and partly significant at α = 1%.

scholarly journals Kontribusi Jumlah Pengunjung Obyek Wisata Dataran Tinggi Dieng Bagi Pendapatan Asli Daerah Kabupaten Wonosobo

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 26-33
Author(s):  
Andryan Setyadharma ◽  
Adi Kurniawan Sujatmiko
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Variable Number ◽  
Analytical Tool ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Local Revenue ◽  
Tourism Sector

increasing regional revenue. For a region with limited potential of its’ natural resources it will be a challenge in an attempt to maximize the potential of the region. One of the effort to maximize the regional revenue is by optimizing potential in the tourism sector. Types of data in this research are secondary data such as tourist numbers, consumer price index, General Allocation Grant, and Local Revenue of Wonosobo Regency. The analytical tool is multiple regression analysis with statistical tests and classical assumption. This research aimed to understand the effect of the number of visits tourist, consumer price index, and General Allocation Grant against the Local Revenue of Wonosobo Regency from 2015 to 2017. The results of the regression processing of short-term models show that the consumer price index variable has a significant effect on Regional Original Income with a probability value of 0.0090 smaller than the real level α = 5%. While the variable number of visitors and General Allocation Funds did not have a significant effect on Regional Original Income with a probability value greater than the real level α = 5%.

Regional Consumer Price Differences Within Germany

2010 ◽  
Vol 230 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Linz
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Sufficient Information ◽  
Price Development ◽  
Price Data ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Information Demand ◽  
Price Comparisons ◽  
Over Time

SummaryEvery month the Consumer Price Index for Germany (CPI) provides comprehensive and detailed information regarding the price development over time. However, when differences in the price level across regions in Germany have to be analysed at a given point in time, sufficient information is not available at present.Interest in regional consumer price data is shown by both scientists and policy makers. Currently, this information demand is not met as regional consumer prices or regional price comparisons are not provided by the Federal Statistical Office in Germany.Data available from the German Consumer Price Index is suitable to follow the price development over time but cannot be used directly to compare price levels of different regions because the goods tracked may be different from region to region.The article first considers the information demand and gives an overview of existing price data. Its main part refers to an empirical study which was conducted to check if existing Consumer Price Index data can be used to calculate regional consumer price comparisons by ex-post selecting comparable products.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Determinants of Islamic Banking Products in Indonesia

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Nur Setyowati
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Islamic Bank ◽  
The Government ◽  
Determinant Factor

The purpose of the study was to investigate which factors determine saving and financing in Islamic banks in Indonesia by using Gregory–Hansen cointegration, vector error correction mode (VECM), Granger causality, and the impulse response function. The results disclose the existence of a long-running cointegrating relationship with a structural break in the deposit and financing case to the consumer price index, industrial production, interest rate, exchange rate, and Jakarta Islamic Index. Most of the structural breaks appeared in January 2006 and April 2007 for both deposit and financing, revealing the first stage of the financial crisis. Any short-term deviation between deposit and financing will give rise to a stable relationship in the long term. In the short-term, there is bidirectional causality between deposits and industrial production and between the consumer price index and financing. This finding shows that real activity, as measured by industrial production, is a highly determinant factor of Islamic bank deposits, while inflation, as measured by the customer price index, is the determinant factor of Islamic bank financing. Our results also suggest that a mix of dynamic behaviors from both Islamic bank savings and financing was revealed in response to the shock of the macroeconomic variable, giving better insight for the government and stakeholders into Indonesian Islamic banking.

scholarly journals The Billion Prices Project: Using Online Prices for Measurement and Research

2016 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Cavallo ◽  
Roberto Rigobon
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Reliable Source ◽  
Price Indexes ◽  
Retail Prices ◽  
Project Data ◽  
Source Of Information

A large and growing share of retail prices all over the world are posted online on the websites of retailers. This is a massive and (until recently) untapped source of retail price information. Our objective with the Billion Prices Project, created at MIT in 2008, is to experiment with these new sources of information to improve the computation of traditional economic indicators, starting with the Consumer Price Index. We also seek to understand whether online prices have distinct dynamics, their advantages and disadvantages, and whether they can serve as reliable source of information for economic research. The word “billion” in Billion Prices Project was simply meant to express our desire to collect a massive amount of prices, though we in fact reached that number of observations in less than two years. By 2010, we were collecting 5 million prices every day from over 300 retailers in 50 countries. We describe the methodology used to compute online price indexes and show how they co-move with consumer price indexes in most countries. We also use our price data to study price stickiness, and to investigate the “law of one price” in international economics. Finally we describe how the Billion Prices Project data are publicly shared and discuss why data collection is an important endeavor that macro- and international economists should pursue more often.

scholarly journals Comportamiento de la cartera comercial de los bancos privados del ecuador, 2010-2018

ECA Sinergia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Lady Andrea Andrea León Serrano ◽  
Josselyn Lissbeth Chamba Bernal ◽  
Samantha Abigail Vega Aguilar
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Country Risk ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mobile Media ◽  
Palabras Clave ◽  
Private Banks ◽  
Private Banking ◽  
Payment Rate

  El presente estudio tiene como objetivo determinar el comportamiento de la cartera comercial del sistema bancario privado del Ecuador durante el período 2010-2018, los factores considerados corresponden a cartera improductiva, tasa de morosidad, Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), Índice de precios del consumidor, riesgo país, variación de la deuda pública y liquidez. Los datos fueron obtenidos de la Superintendencia de Compañías, Banco Central del Ecuador y Superintendencia de Bancos. La metodología plantea dos modelos econométricos, el primero el Univariante Autoregresivo Integrado Media Móvil (ARIMA) por las estimaciones de las variables a corto plazo y el segundo Multivariante del Análisis de la Covarianza (ANCOVA) que permite relacionar variables con el comportamiento de la cartera comercial. Los principales resultados determinan que los factores de estudio provocan alteraciones en la cartera comercial, por lo tanto, las conclusiones se deducen a un sistema bancario sensible ante las crisis económicas, especialmente a factores externos como el precio del petróleo y planteamientos de políticas económicas.   Palabras clave: Cartera comercial; morosidad; liquidez; bancos privados; Ecuador.   ABSTRACT   The objective of this study is to determine the behavior of the commercial portfolio of the private banking system of Ecuador during the period 2010-2018, the factors considered correspond to unproductive portfolio, late payment Rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), consumer price index , country risk, variation of public debt and liquidity. The data were obtained from the Superintendence of Companies, Central Bank of Ecuador and Superintendence of Banks. The methodology proposes two econometric models, the first the Mobile Media Integrated Autoregressive Univariate (ARIMA) by the estimates of the short-term variables and the second Multivariate of the covariance analysis (ANCOVA) allows to relate variables with the behavior of the commercial portfolio. The main results determine that the study factors cause alterations in the commercial portfolio, therefore, the conclusions are deduced to a banking system sensitive to economic crises, especially to external factors such as the price of oil and economic policy approaches.   Keywords: Commercial portfolio; late payment; liquidity; private banks; Ecuador.

Consumer Confidence Index in Vietnam: Scale Development and Compilation Methods

2019 ◽  
pp. 107-124
Author(s):  
Ha Hoang Thi Thanh ◽  
Bich Tran Thi
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Specific Context ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Confidence Index ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
United Nations Statistics Division ◽  
Country Specific

A consumer confidence index (CCI) is an important economic indicator which is used to adjust the forecasting of gross domestic product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) in the shortterm. Although there exists standard guidelines from the United Nations Statistics Division and European Commission, international experience shows the scale that measures a CCI and the methods of calculating a CCI need to be adapted to the country specific context. Using its own data from the nationally representative survey and factor analysis methods, this paper constructs a scale to measure consumer confidence for Vietnam. The paper, then, computes a CCI and proposes the most appropriate method corresponding to the Vietnamese setting. Validation methods from the paper show that the Vietnamese CCI calculated in the paper reflects approximately the economic picture of the whole country as well as six regions of Vietnam, ensuring the validity of using this index to adjust short-term GDP and CPI forecasts.

scholarly journals Food Prices and Rising Energy Costs

1981 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-21
Author(s):  
R. McFall Lamm
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Energy Costs ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Congressional Hearings ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

Higher relative prices for energy and food are often referenced as important continuing problems in the United States. For example, the Council on Wage and Price Stability attributed 5.2 percent of the 18 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in early 1980 to higher crude oil prices and described energy prices as “uncontrollable.” Similarly, the substantial upward movements in food prices during 1978 and 1979 were identified by policy-makers as a major source of inflation and stimulated Congressional hearings and an Administration investigation of the causes of rising food prices.

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