scholarly journals Economic Diversification under Saudi Vision 2030

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Havrlant ◽  
Abdulelah Darandary

The last decade has brought a row of substantial changes that have profound implications for the traditional hydrocarbon resource-rich economies. Economic conditions may change radically either throughout a decade or within months. The question is whether there is no other option for a hydrocarbon resource-rich economy than to be held hostage to the fluctuations in global oil prices. The general answer to a changing environment is: Adapt! From the macroeconomic perspective, this means diversifying the economy to broaden the income base and significantly reduce the dependence on oil revenues. The Saudi Vision 2030 represents a complex plan for substantial socioeconomic adjustments that are about to move the economy toward a more diversified and sustainable one. This discussion paper examines the preferred diversification paths for the Saudi economy in more detail, with a focus on the foreseen adjustments in the sectoral composition of the economy along with broader macroeconomic shifts. The evaluation of the foreseen diversification impacts is based on the updated Vision 2030 Input-Output Table that maps the changing structure of the Saudi economy over the coming decade. We discuss the assumed expansion of the diversification frontrunners, their changing contribution to the overall economic activity and identify the preferred diversification paths for the Saudi economy. The advances in economic diversification are measured by applying the Shannon-Weaver index to sectoral GDP and household income. The expected sectoral changes are wide-reaching, so the basic macroeconomic relations are also subject to adjustments. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis to examine the effects of the foreseen diversification on the resilience of the Saudi economy to external shocks.

Author(s):  
Vahid Yücesoy

Oil-rich countries have oftentimes been confronted with the challenge of diversifying their economies away from oil dependence given the exhaustible nature of these fossil fuels. Investing in sovereign wealth funds has been one of the most ubiquitous ways of preparing for the post-oil period. Investing in sovereign wealth funds rather than directly injecting the oil revenues in the economy not only precludes the outbreak of the Dutch Disease (which is known for giving rise to an exchange rate appreciation, crowding out non-oil industries and keeping the economy reliant on oil), but it also saves for future generations. Yet, in the case of Azerbaijan, the Sovereign Wealth Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), founded in 1999, has only increased this reliance on oil. Using the rentier states theoretical framework, this paper will argue that the direct control over SOFAZ exercised by the president and the lack of consultation with the NGOs have made corruption easier, making the task of economic diversification more difficult. This has been possible because through corruption the president has often resorted to oil money to buy peace rather than invest it in economic diversification. As a result, since the foundation of SOFAZ, the country is more reliant, not less, on oil.   Full text available at: https://doi.org/10.22215/rera.v8i1.223  


2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 372
Author(s):  
Aysar Yaseen Fahd ◽  
Ahmed Muhammad Jasm

This study aims to analyze the nature and volume of FDI inflows to Iraq during the period between 2003 and 2014 with reference to its importance in diversifying sources of income and reduce the risk of over-reliance on oil revenues, which exceed 97% of total public revenues. The study showed that the lack of pre-drawn strategy and prevented in attracting domestic and foreign investment without making the Iraqi economy a favorable climate to attract investment or directing those investment which entered to the sectors that are capable to contribute to the achievement of a genuine development through their effective contribution to capital formation and to its connections with the front and rear rest sectors.


Author(s):  
M. G. Lescheva ◽  
T. N. Steklova ◽  
A. S. Khusainova

The article is devoted to the analysis of the results of observing the living conditions of the rural population, assessing the scale and effectiveness of state support measures aimed at the development of rural territories. The development of engineering infrastructure (gasification and water supply), provision of improved housing, accessibility of means of communication, educational and medical services in rural areas was considered. A comparative assessment of the level and structure of household income in the city and the countryside has been carried out. Living conditions have been identified as factors in the deterioration of the socio-economic situation in rural settlements. The directions of improvement of socio-economic conditions of development of rural territories, which involves increase of state support financing within the framework of federal targeted projects and programs, increase of interest of private business and activity of the local community, have been defined.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Ali Soytas ◽  
David Havrlant

Abstract This paper introduces an approach that combines macroeconomic forecasts with the input-output analysis methods to produce long-term projections of input-output tables (IOTs), with an emphasis on key targets of Saudi Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s blueprint for economic diversification and sustainable growth. A significant advantage of the input-output framework is its high sectoral granularity, allowing it to capture the impacts of adjustments to final demand or government policies with respect to individual sectors. Our hybrid approach enables the introduction of different sectoral growth paths, so that Vision 2030’s transformation plan is reflected appropriately in the projected IOTs. The framework is flexible enough to accommodate sudden adjustments with relative ease, such as the introduction of new technologies or entire sectors into the economy. Saudi Vison 2030 includes a set of targets relating to economic diversification into non-oil sectors, improved energy efficiency, the introduction of new technologies, social transformation, and the support of selected emerging sectors. The ultimate aim of the vision is to create an acceleration towards sustainable growth and development in the Saudi economy. Since these policies are expected to have a substantial impact on the economy, quantifying the economic implications of diversification and sectoral shifts require an adequate and flexible tool for projecting and evaluating structural adjustments for a better decision making.


2020 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-282
Author(s):  
Ghada H. Fetais ◽  
Remah Gharib

Purpose This paper aims to explore the possibilities of economic diversification in the State of Qatar through the regeneration of built heritage post the COVID-19 pandemic, promoting sustainable tourism and creating a center for cultural heritage in Qatar, thereby enhancing the sense of identity both socially and physically among the nationals and residents. In light of the strategic goals of the Qatar National Vision 2030, which is to diversify Qatar’s economy and minimize its reliance on hydrocarbon industries, if these ambitious goals are to be achieved, there is a necessity to maintain the local cultural identity, demonstrated through architecture and urbanism. Design/methodology/approach This study is an exploratory research based on qualitative methods of data gathering and investigation. The local communities who used to live in the scattered old villages were approached with surveys. At the same time, semi-structured interviews were conducted with professionals in the field in Qatar and other individuals from the public, depending on their literacy levels. Findings This paper examines how to revive those villages and improve their current economic level. Finally, the study proposes some recommendations for these abandoned villages in an attempt to rejuvenate their built heritage and revitalize their socioeconomic status. Originality/value Economic diversification needs to be engendered through the services and products of Qatari society; this is possible by exploiting current resources such as the built heritage or historic sites in areas outside the emerging metropolitan cities. This study reveals the great potential of regenerating the old villages of the Gulf States by establishing nonprofit organizations and increasing the economic benefit of the abandoned historic structures.


Subject Gulf debt and sovereign wealth funds. Significance After more than a decade of growing oil revenues and rapidly increased spending, the collapse in oil prices since autumn 2014 has transformed the fiscal environment for Gulf oil monarchies. This year will be the first since the early 2000s that most of them incur deficits. Their options for managing them include spending cuts, raising revenue, debt issuance and a drawdown of international reserves. Impacts Saudi Arabia's deep reserves will allow continued high spending for at least half a decade. Bahrain has the fewest liquid assets and faces the most brutal fiscal adjustment, followed by Oman. State-driven economic diversification efforts are likely to slow due to reduced capital spending, including on investment in new sectors. Gulf states' chequebook diplomacy in countries like Lebanon or Egypt will become increasingly less generous. The larger SWFs' tightening focus on risk management leaves them better positioned to manage funding challenges and withdrawal risk.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 215-248
Author(s):  
Ayfer Özyılmaz ◽  
Yüksel Bayraktar

Internal migrations, which involve population movements within the borders of a country for economic, political or social reasons, is seen as both a cause and a result of regional imbalances. In this framework, the effect increasing internal migrations have on developed and underdeveloped regions may differ through the effect of the different socio-cultural and economic conditions between regions. The aspect of imbalance is directly related to the extent to which migration affects parameters such as wage, production, consumption, human capital levels, entrepreneurial migration, unemployment, and household income in regions with different stages of development. This study analyzes the effect internal migration has on regional imbalances in Turkey’s NUTS-2 regions during 2008-2019 using the bootstrap quantile regression method. According to the analysis findings, internal migration increases growth in all NUTS-2 regions, but this effect is stronger at higher income levels. In this context, as a region’s income levels increase, the effect of net migration on growth also increases. When considering the migration direction to be from low-income regions to high-income regions, internal migration has been found to increase interregional disintegration in Turkey.


Author(s):  
​Ivan Todorov ◽  
Stoyan Tanchev ◽  
Petar Yurukov

The objective of this paper is to study the influence of the international economic conjuncture on Bulgaria’s economic growth and business cycle. A vector autoregression (VAR) is employed to identify the main factors, which affect the growth and cyclicality of Bulgaria, the size and the direction of their impact. The cause-and-effect links between external economic conditions, the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) and the output gap of Bulgaria have been investigated. The external opportunities and threats facing the Bulgarian economy under a currency board arrangement and a membership in the European Union have been outlined. Recommendations have been made on appropriate policies for using external opportunities and overcoming external threats. The study results indicate that the main international determinants of Bulgaria’s economic growth and business cycle are macroeconomic policies in the Euro Area.


Author(s):  
Bahram Adrangi ◽  
Richard D. Gritta ◽  
Kambiz Raffiee

<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 35.2pt 0pt 0.5in;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;">Air cargo is a critical component for developing an integrated transportation system to facilitate regional economic diversification and growth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Additionally, demand for air cargo shipments is affected by regional, national and international economic conditions. To get a better sense on these issues in Northern Nevada, a study was conducted to determine : (1)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>characteristics of business behavior for air cargo and other freight modes at Reno-Tahoe International Airport<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>(2) if<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>employment in Reno MSA, as<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>a proxy for regional business<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>activities, has a systematic impact on air cargo shipments at Reno-Tahoe International Airport. The first question is examined by conducting interviews and surveys of the firms in Northern Nevada in 2002-2003.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>The second question is evaluated by estimating time-series models using monthly data on employmen<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>in Reno MSA and air cargo shipments at Reno-Tahoe International Airport. The findings do support the importance of regional economic factors in determining the demand for air cargo shipments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;</span></span></p>


2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 36
Author(s):  
Jawad Atef Al-Dala'een

The objective of this research is to investigate the socio-economic conditions of households who have animal production gardens. The questionnaire was used to collect data. The questionnaire concentrated on collecting data about animal breeding patters, the extent of these animals in these gardens. The sample was distributed on six stratified layers each layer represent a pattern of household income except the sixth layers which represents household gardens suburban areas. The results showed that households concentrate on animal breeding in their gardens. The type of animal breeding depends on the location of layers and laws, which regulate this process. In suburban areas, all kinds of animal were allowed to breed in household gardens. The production attained of animal breeding was very considerable and can be considered as part of household income.


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