scholarly journals IMPACT OF EXTERNAL SHOCKS ON BULGARIA’S GROWTH AND CYCLE

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 158-168
Author(s):  
​Ivan Todorov ◽  
Stoyan Tanchev ◽  
Petar Yurukov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Currency Board ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Main Factors

The objective of this paper is to study the influence of the international economic conjuncture on Bulgaria’s economic growth and business cycle. A vector autoregression (VAR) is employed to identify the main factors, which affect the growth and cyclicality of Bulgaria, the size and the direction of their impact. The cause-and-effect links between external economic conditions, the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) and the output gap of Bulgaria have been investigated. The external opportunities and threats facing the Bulgarian economy under a currency board arrangement and a membership in the European Union have been outlined. Recommendations have been made on appropriate policies for using external opportunities and overcoming external threats. The study results indicate that the main international determinants of Bulgaria’s economic growth and business cycle are macroeconomic policies in the Euro Area.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Non-Linear Effects of the Public Debt on the Economic Growth of the WAEMU

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. p63
Author(s):  
Moussa SIGUE ◽  
Moussa COULIBALY
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Quadratic Form ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Linear Effects ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this article is to analyse the nature of the relationship between public debt and economic growth in the WAEMU. A standard growth model was specified and then estimated in quadratic form from the GMM (GMM). The results show a non-linear relationship between public debt and economic growth. Thus, public debt stimulates economic growth when it does not exceed the threshold of 15% of GDP. Robustness tests show that public debt is boosting the economic conditions of countries with sound macroeconomic policies and good institutional quality.

Forming Sources of Long-run Growth: How to Understand Them?

2014 ◽  
pp. 4-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Idrisov ◽  
S. Sinelnikov-Murylev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Accelerate Growth ◽  
Budget Institutions

The paper analyzes the inconsequence and problems of Russian economic policy to accelerate economic growth. The authors consider three components of growth rate (potential, Russian business cycle and world business cycle components) and conclude that in order to pursue an effective economic policy to accelerate growth, it has to be addressed to the potential (long-run) growth component. The main ingredients of this policy are government spending restructuring and budget institutions reform, labor and capital markets reforms, productivity growth.

The world and Russia: Inflation is minimal, economic growth is slowing, risks are rising

2019 ◽  
pp. 5-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail V. Ershov ◽  
Anna S. Tanasova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
New Combination ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Money Creation ◽  
Main Factors

Russian economy has reached the low level of inflation, but economic growth has not accelerated. Moreover, according to official forecasts, in the following years it will still be low. The article concludes that domestic demand, which is one of the main factors of growth, is significantly constrained by monetary, budgetary and fiscal spheres. The situation in the Russian economy is still hampered by the decline of the world economic growth. The prospects of financial markets are highly uncertain. This increases the possibility of crisis in the world. Leading countries widely use non-traditional measures to support their economies in the similar environment. In the world economy as well as in Russia a principally new combination of factors has emerged, which create specific features of economic growth. It requires special set of measures to stimulate such growth. The article proves that Russian regulators have large unused potential to stimulate growth. It includes monetization, long-money creation, budget and tax stimuli. It is important that the instruments, which will be used, should be based on domestic mechanisms. This will strengthen financial basis of the economy and may encourage economic growth. Some specific suggestions as to their use are made.

PENGARUH PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO, INFLASI DAN RASIO GINI TERHADAP PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA DI PROVINSI DKI JAKARTA

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sri Mahendra Putra Wirawan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Research Model ◽  
Economic Region ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Comprehensive Picture ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
The Relationship

Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) which provides a comprehensive picture of the economic conditions of a region is indicator for analyzing economic region development. Another indicator that is no less important is inflation as an indicator to see the level of changes in price increases due to an increase in the money supply that causes rising prices. The success of development must also look at the income inequality of its population which is illustrated by this ratio. One of the main regional development goals is to improve the welfare of its people, where to see the level of community welfare, among others, can be seen from the level of unemployment in an area. To that end, in order to get an overview of the effects of GRDP, inflation and the ratio of gini to unemployment in DKI Jakarta for the last ten years (2007-2016), an analysis was carried out using multiple linear regression methods. As a result, together the relationship between GRDP, inflation and the Gini ratio is categorized as "very strong" with a score of 0.936, and has a significant influence on unemployment. Partially, the GRDP gives a significant influence, but inflation and gini ratio do not have a significant influence. GDP, inflation and the Gini ratio together for the last ten years have contributed 81.4% to unemployment in DKI Jakarta, while the remaining 18.6% is influenced by other variables not included in this research model, so for reduce unemployment in DKI Jakarta, programs that are oriented to economic growth, suppressing inflation and decreasing this ratio need to be carried out simultaneously. Keywords: GRDP, inflation, unemployment, DKI Jakarta, GINI ratio  

Impacts of Environmental Regulation on Sustainable Economic Growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 749-773
Author(s):  
Jonathan Fisher
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Environmental Regulation ◽  
Technical Change ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Environmental Regulations ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Porter Hypothesis ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Environment Agency ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

There is considerable concern and debate about the economic impacts of environmental regulations. Jonathan Fisher, former Economics Manager at the Environment Agency in England and Wales, reviews the available evidence on this subject. Section 2 presents estimates of the costs and benefits of environmental regulations. Section 3 examines the impacts of environmental regulations on economic growth, innovation and technical change as well as impacts on competitiveness and any movement of businesses to less pollution havens. He questions call for greater certainty regarding future environmental regulations, whereas in fact there should be calls for less uncertainty. This section then suggests how this could be achieved. This section then finishes with an overview of the available evidence. This includes an examination of the Porter Hypothesis that environmental regulations can trigger greater innovation that may partially or more than fully offset the compliance costs. Section 4 then sets out principles for how better environmental regulation can improve its impacts on sustainable economic growth and illustrates how the European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive is a good example of the application of these principles in practice. Section 5 reviews current and recent political perspectives regarding developments in environmental regulations across the EU and shows how the United Kingdom (UK) has successfully positively managed to influence such developments so that EU environmental regulations now incorporate many of these principles to improve their impacts on economic growth. Section 5.1 then examines the implications of Brexit for UK environmental regulations. Finally, Section 6 sets out some best practice principles to improve the impacts of environmental regulation on sustainable economic growth, innovation and technical change.

scholarly journals Risk and Performance of European Green and Conventional Funds

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4226
Author(s):  
Tiago Gonçalves ◽  
Diego Pimentel ◽  
Cristina Gaio
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
World Market ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Single Factor ◽  
Multifactor Models ◽  
Multifactor Model ◽  
Negative Results ◽  
The Business Cycle

This paper analyzes how the risk-adjusted returns of green funds compare to those of conventional funds, between the years 2005 and 2020 for the European Union countries. Additionally, we tested how the performance of green funds correlates to the business cycle, subdividing their performance through expansionary and recessionary times. The findings are summarized as follows: our regression results demonstrated green and conventional funds exhibiting negative abnormal adjusted-returns against the developed world market benchmark for the single-factor and multifactor models. For the European market benchmark, we found environmental mutual funds presenting a positive performance for both models and conventional funds displaying negative results for the single-factor model and positive results for the multifactor model. The factor loadings for green funds indicated a negative load on momentum, book-to-market (HML) and size (SMB) factors, revealing a higher exposure to big and value companies. Subsampling per business cycle exhibited green mutual funds providing higher risk-adjusted returns to investors during crisis periods and mixed results for the non-crisis periods.

EUROPEAN FISCAL RULES AS A LIABILITY IN THE TRANSATLANTIC TRADE CONFLICT: LESSONS FROM NiGEM SIMULATIONS

2020 ◽  
Vol 254 ◽  
pp. R54-R66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Dullien ◽  
Sabine Stephan ◽  
Thomas Theobald
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Union ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trump Administration

Under the Trump administration, a transatlantic trade conflict has been escalating step by step. First, it was about tariffs on steel and aluminium, then about retaliation for the French digital tax, which is suspended until the end of the year. Most recently, the US administration threatened the European Union with tariffs on cars and car parts because of Canadian seafood being subject to lower import duties. As simulations with NiGEM show, a further escalation of the transatlantic trade conflict has the potential to slow down economic growth significantly in the countries involved. This is a considerable risk given the fact that the countries have to cope with the enormous negative effects of the pandemic shock. Furthermore, the damage caused by the trade conflict depends on the extent to which the affected countries use fiscal policy to stabilise their economies.

scholarly journals Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Case of Central Europe

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 3415
Author(s):  
Bartosz Jóźwik ◽  
Antonina-Victoria Gavryshkiv ◽  
Phouphet Kyophilavong ◽  
Lech Euzebiusz Gruszecki
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Ekc Hypothesis ◽  
Central European ◽  
Long Run

The rapid economic growth observed in Central European countries in the last thirty years has been the result of profound political changes and economic liberalization. This growth is partly connected with reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, the problem of CO2 emissions seems to remain unresolved. The aim of this paper is to test whether the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis holds true for Central European countries in an annual sample data that covers 1995–2016 in most countries. We examine cointegration by applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound testing. This is the first study examining the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth in individual Central European countries from a long-run perspective, which allows the results to be compared. We confirmed the cointegration, but our estimates confirmed the EKC hypothesis only in Poland. It should also be noted that in all nine countries, energy consumption leads to increased CO2 emissions. The long-run elasticity ranges between 1.5 in Bulgaria and 2.0 in Croatia. We observed exceptionally low long-run elasticity in Estonia (0.49). Our findings suggest that to solve the environmental degradation problem in Central Europe, it is necessary to individualize the policies implemented in the European Union.

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