scholarly journals Comparative study of different exponential smoothing models in simulation of meteorological drought : A study on Purulia district, West Bengal, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 504-511
Author(s):  
Shrinwantu Raha ◽  
Shasanka Kumar Gayen
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Multiplicative Model ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Post Monsoon ◽  
Deccan Plateau ◽  
Purulia District

Drought is a burning issue in India and hence needs serious attention of researchers to develop rigorous plan and management. Areas that belong to various plateaus, e.g., Chottanagpur plateau, Deccan plateau, etc., are mostly affected by drought in India. In the past decade, Purulia District of West Bengal, which belongs to northeast part of Chottanagpur plateau, faced severe drought several times. But the assessment of drought in this area was far from a decesive proclamation till date. In this research, an attempt was made to compare the Holt-Winter additive and Holt-Winter multiplicative model in simulation (at 1 month lead time) of meteorological drought (using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) of Purulia District, West Bengal, India. The additive model showed better performance than the multiplicative model with minimized Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and higher correlation coefficient value (R2). The spatial assessment drought at pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon phase indicated that severe drought had occurred in post monsoon and premonsoon phase at the eastern portions of the study area.      

scholarly journals Studies on fish diversity concerning Hydro-ecology of Kangsabasti river in Purulia district, West Bengal, India

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Manab Kumar Saha
Keyword(s):  
Fish Species ◽  
Physicochemical Parameters ◽  
West Bengal ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Fish Diversity ◽  
Riverine Ecosystem ◽  
Post Monsoon ◽  
Fish Catch ◽  
Purulia District

Fish diversity depends both on various physicochemical parameters and the biological components of the riverine ecosystem. During the study period from January 2017 to December 2019 the highest fish diversity and density were observed in post-monsoon and lowest in pre-monsoon season in the Kangsabati River, Purulia District of West Bengal. Twenty five fish species, associated with 19 genera, 10 families and 5 orders have been identified. It was recorded that the Cyprinidae was the predominant family, which represented 56% of the entire fish catch.

scholarly journals Elucidating Diverse Drought Characteristics from Two Meteorological Drought Indices (SPI and SPEI) in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 1513-1530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingcheng Li ◽  
Dunxian She ◽  
Hui Zheng ◽  
Peirong Lin ◽  
Zong-Liang Yang
Keyword(s):  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Drought Characteristics

AbstractThis study elucidates drought characteristics in China during 1980–2015 using two commonly used meteorological drought indices: standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results show that SPEI characterizes an overall increase in drought severity, area, and frequency during 1998–2015 compared with those during 1980–97, mainly due to the increasing potential evapotranspiration. By contrast, SPI does not reveal this phenomenon since precipitation does not exhibit a significant change overall. We further identify individual drought events using the three-dimensional (i.e., longitude, latitude, and time) clustering algorithm and apply the severity–area–duration (SAD) method to examine the drought spatiotemporal dynamics. Compared to SPI, SPEI identifies a lower drought frequency but with larger total drought areas overall. Additionally, SPEI identifies a greater number of severe drought events but a smaller number of slight drought events than the SPI. Approximately 30% of SPI-detected drought grids are not identified as drought by SPEI, and 40% of SPEI-detected drought grids are not recognized as drought by SPI. Both indices can roughly capture the major drought events, but SPEI-detected drought events are overall more severe than SPI. From the SAD analysis, SPI tends to identify drought as more severe over small areas within 1 million km2 and short durations less than 2 months, whereas SPEI tends to delineate drought as more severe across expansive areas larger than 3 million km2 and periods longer than 3 months. Given the fact that potential evapotranspiration increases in a warming climate, this study suggests SPEI may be more suitable than SPI in monitoring droughts under climate change.

scholarly journals Droughts and corruption

Public Choice ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Wenzel
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Specific Analysis ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract Natural disasters are challenges for good governance. That conclusion follows from recent research investigating the effects of natural disasters on one important force hostile to good governance: public sector corruption. However, a specific analysis of droughts is so far neglected in the still-young relevant strand of the literature. The present paper fills that gap by analyzing the short- and long-term influence of droughts on public sector corruption within a unified panel estimation approach for 120 countries during the period 1985–2013. Relying on a meteorological drought measure, the Standardized Precipitation Index, we show that more severe drought exposure is followed by more corruption. The effect holds for subsamples of developing and developed countries. The robustness of the results is supported by a variety of stability tests. Furthermore, we provide initial evidence on the transmission paths of drought-induced corruption, which differ depending on the countries’ level of development. Whereas droughts increase corruption risk in developing countries by triggering significantly larger aid inflows and less democratic accountability and transparency, corruption in developed countries rises as a consequence of governmental drought relief payments.

scholarly journals Drought Identification and Trend Analysis Using Long-Term CHIRPS Satellite Precipitation Product in Bundelkhand, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1042 ◽  
Author(s):  
Varsha Pandey ◽  
Prashant K Srivastava ◽  
Sudhir K Singh ◽  
George P. Petropoulos ◽  
Rajesh Kumar Mall
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hazard Mapping ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Management ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Drought hazard mapping and its trend analysis has become indispensable due to the aggravated impact of drought in the era of climate change. Sparse observational networks with minimal maintenance limit the spatio-temporal coverage of precipitation data, which has been a major constraint in the effective drought monitoring. In this study, high-resolution satellite-derived Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data has been used for computation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The study was carried out in Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh, India, known for its substantial drought occurrences with poor drought management plans and lack of effective preparedness. Very limited studies have been carried out in assessing the spatio-temporal drought in this region. This study aims to identify district-wide drought and its trend characterization from 1981 to 2018. The run theory was applied for quantitative drought assessment; whereas, the Mann-Kendall (MK) test was performed for trend analysis at seasonal and annual time steps. Results indicated an average of nine severe drought events in all the districts in the last 38 years, and the most intense drought was recorded for the Jalaun district (1983–1985). A significant decreasing trend is observed for the SPI1 (at 95% confidence level) during the post-monsoon season, with the magnitude varying from −0.16 to −0.33 mm/month. This indicates the increasing severity of meteorological drought in the area. Moreover, a non-significant falling trend for short-term drought (SPI1 and SPI3) annually and short- and medium-term drought (SPI1, SPI3, and SPI6) in winter months have been also observed for all the districts. The output of the current study would be utilized in better understanding of the drought condition through elaborate trend analysis of the SPI pattern and thus helps the policy makers to devise a drought management plan to handle the water crisis, food security, and in turn the betterment of the inhabitants.

Evaluation of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA v7) in drought monitoring over southwest Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 82 ◽  
pp. 55-73
Author(s):  
M Montazeri ◽  
MSK Kiany ◽  
SA Masoodian
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Drought Monitoring ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Tropical Rainfall ◽  
Southwestern Iran ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimates

Characterizing the errors in satellite-based precipitation estimations for drought monitoring is of great importance, as these estimations provide both spatially and temporally complete records. The aim of this study was to evaluate satellite-based quantitative precipitation estimates to monitor meteorological drought in southwestern Iran. The reliability of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Version 7 products (3B42 and 3B43) in estimating the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was evaluated against a ground-based gridded precipitation dataset at 0.25° spatial resolution for 1998-2016. The analysis conducted for the SPI at various time scales revealed that both products (3B42 and 3B43) are capable of capturing the spatial and temporal behavior of drought events over the study region, with the best performance at SPI6. 3B43 is also more efficient in the identification of shorter severe drought events compared to 3B42. The findings suggest that both satellite products, particularly 3B43, are suitable to be used directly for SPI computation in the region for drought monitoring and early warning in terms of the accuracy and the spatial and temporal resolutions they provide.

Can Effective Drought Index (EDI) successfully characterise meteorological drought and seasonal agricultural losses?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Anarul Haque Mondol ◽  
Xuan Zhu ◽  
David Dunkerley ◽  
Benjamin J. Henley
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Effective Drought Index ◽  
Spi Index ◽  
Barind Tract

<p>The nature and characteristics of drought are not like a flood, cyclone or storm surge since droughts cannot easily be tracked and are difficult to quantify as a distinct event. In this study, we examined the characteristics of meteorological drought occurrence and severity using the Effective Drought Index (EDI), including the drought events, drought chronology, onset and ending of drought, consecutive drought spells, drought frequency, intensity and severity, using North-Bengal of Bangladesh as a case study. The rainfall and temperature dataset of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for the study region throughout 1979-2018 is utilised. The trends of drought are detected by using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen Slope estimation. We evaluated the performance of EDI using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), historical drought records and rice production. The study finds that seasonal and annual droughts have become more frequent in all seasons except pre-monsoon. In addition, the largest decrease in seasonal EDI is found in the monsoon in both Teesta floodplain and Barind tract. In decades prior to the late 2000s, a drought spell typically started between March to May (± 15 days) and ended with the monsoonal rainfall in June/July. In the years since the last 2000s, monsoon and post-monsoon droughts spells have significantly increased. Overall, the peak intensities of droughts are higher in the Barind tract than in the Teesta floodplain, and the frequency and severity of moderate to severe drought are increasing significantly in the Barind tract. Though EDI is strongly correlated with the SPI index, EDI and rice production have a non-linear relationship and are not significantly correlated. Hence, this research suggests that there are other significant influences on yield rather than just climatological drought (e.g. irrigation, lack of technology and management etc.).</p>

scholarly journals Spatial patterns of European droughts under a moderate emission scenario

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Spinoni ◽  
G. Naumann ◽  
J. Vogt
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Increase ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Near Future

Abstract. Meteorological drought is generally defined as a prolonged deficiency of precipitation and is considered one of the most relevant natural hazards as the related impacts can involve many different sectors. In this study, we investigated the spatial patterns of European droughts for the periods 1981–2010, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, focusing on the projections under a moderate emissions scenario. To do that, we used the outputs of the KNMI-RACMO2 model, which belongs to the A1B family and whose spatial resolution is 0.25° × 0.25°. By means of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), we computed the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at the 12-month accumulation scale. Thereafter, we separately obtained drought frequency, duration, severity, and intensity for the whole of Europe, excluding Iceland. According to both indicators, the spatial drought patterns are projected to follow what recently characterized Europe: southern Europe, who experienced many severe drought events in the last decades, is likely to be involved by longer, more frequent, severe, and intense droughts in the near future (2041–2070) and even more in the far future (2071–2100). This tendency is more evident using the SPEI, which also depends on temperature and consequently reflects the expected warming that will be highest for the Mediterranean area in Europe. On the other side, less severe and fewer drought events are likely to occur in northern Europe. This tendency is more evident using the SPI, because the precipitation increase is projected to outbalance the temperature (and PET) rise in particular in Scandinavia. Regarding the mid-latitudes, the SPEI-based analyses point at more frequent drought events, while the SPI-based ones point at less frequent events in these regions.

scholarly journals Meteorological drought assessment using standardized precipitation index for different agro-climatic zones of Odisha

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 71 (3) ◽  
pp. 467-480
Author(s):  
PANIGRAHI BALRAM ◽  
LIANSANGPUII FANAI
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Climatic Zones ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
Moderate Drought ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mild Drought

In this paper standardized precipitation index (SPI) is used to assess meteorological drought for all 30 districts covering 10 agro-climatic zones in an eastern Indian state, Odisha. Monthly rainfall data of 115 years (1901-2015) for all 30 districts of Odisha are analyzed using SPI on 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12-month timescale. These timescales reflect the impact of drought on the availability of different water resources. Results indicate that in all the agro-climatic zones of Odisha, mild drought events have the highest frequencies of occurrence followed by moderate drought events for different timescales. Severe and extreme drought frequencies are comparatively lesser than mild and moderate drought frequencies. SPI analysis shows that 32-46 years are affected by mild drought, 4-16 years affected by moderate drought, 1-9 years are affected by severe drought and 1-5 years are affected by extreme drought during study period of 115 years in different agro-climatic zones of Odisha. It is observed 50.3% areas in the state are affected by drought in June out of which chances of occurrence of mild drought is maximum (28.7%). In the months of July, August and September, 51.7, 48.5 and 46.1% areas are affected by droughts. On average 49.15% areas of the entire state is affected by drought of various intensities out of which the share of mild, moderate, severe and extreme drought is 28.38, 13.28, 5.06 and 2.43%, respectively.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Different Rainfall-based Drought Indices Detection of Meteorological Drought Events in Imo State, Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 713-717
Author(s):  
C.S. Ekwezuo ◽  
J.C. Madu
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Technological Advancement ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
Imo State ◽  
Humid Environment

Drought Indices are extensively adopted as a drought detection and monitoring tool in all climatic regions. This study assesses and compares the performance of four rainfall based drought indices, Deciles index (DI), Percent of Normal Index (PNI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Z-score Index (ZSI) in detection and classification of drought events in Imo state , a humid environment of Nigeria from (1982 to 2016). The resultshows that droughts do occur in humid climatic region of Nigeria. The various indices differ in their detection and classification of drought events in the study area. However, they classified 2007 and 2008 as the year with the most severe drought event in the state. There is high correlation (r > 0.70) among the four indices, with ZSI and PNI showing the highest relationship to SPI (r= 0.97). The differences observed among the drought indices in detecting drought events in the study area can be reduced by using multiple drought indices in addition to the use of SPI in drought assessments especially in Nigeria since technological advancement in drought monitoring software’s has made it easier. Also it is worthwhile to research on why drought detection varies with indices. Keywords: Drought assessment, Rainfall-based drought indices, humid environment, Imo state, Nigeria.

scholarly journals METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT IN WONOGIRI DISTRICT

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karlina Karlina
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Extreme Condition ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Historical Condition ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Condition

Drought is one of natural disaster occurrences that affect many life aspects such as agricultural and economy. Drought is one ofhazard that affected by extreme condition due to climate change. Wonogiri is one of districts in Indonesia that has a high risk ofmeteorological drought. This area tends to have less rainfall than other areas that make the condition drier. This study is aimedto provide some information required in determining the drought disaster mitigation through analysis of the droughtcharacteristics, for both historical and future condition. For the historical condition analysis, the input is 12 years of daily rainfallrecorded data from 1990 to 2001 in 15 rain gauges. In case of the future assessment, the meteorological drought was analyzedby using Effective Drought Index (EDI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) methods. Input data for the future assessmentis 90 years of daily rainfall which was generated by using climate model HadCM3 scenario A2 and B2. The future data predictionwas done by using Automated Statistical Downscaling software. Statistical criteria i.e. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE),regression coefficient and standard deviation were used for testing the model accuracy. The drought coefficient obtained fromthe analysis using EDI and SPI then was applied to draw drought risk map using GIS software in Wonogiri District for historicaland future condition. The results show that for the historical condition, the most severe drought occurred in 1997-1998. Thisextreme condition related to ENSO phenomenon that happened in this area. Compared with the historical condition, the numberof future drought event in 2080 period is less than the historical one. This result agree with the rainfall prediction. The generatedrainfall for both scenarios are increase from existing period to 2080’s.

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