Droughts and corruption

Meteorological Drought ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Specific Analysis ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Abstract Natural disasters are challenges for good governance. That conclusion follows from recent research investigating the effects of natural disasters on one important force hostile to good governance: public sector corruption. However, a specific analysis of droughts is so far neglected in the still-young relevant strand of the literature. The present paper fills that gap by analyzing the short- and long-term influence of droughts on public sector corruption within a unified panel estimation approach for 120 countries during the period 1985–2013. Relying on a meteorological drought measure, the Standardized Precipitation Index, we show that more severe drought exposure is followed by more corruption. The effect holds for subsamples of developing and developed countries. The robustness of the results is supported by a variety of stability tests. Furthermore, we provide initial evidence on the transmission paths of drought-induced corruption, which differ depending on the countries’ level of development. Whereas droughts increase corruption risk in developing countries by triggering significantly larger aid inflows and less democratic accountability and transparency, corruption in developed countries rises as a consequence of governmental drought relief payments.

Evaluation of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA v7) in drought monitoring over southwest Iran

Climate Research ◽

10.3354/cr01622 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 82 ◽

pp. 55-73

Author(s):

M Montazeri ◽

MSK Kiany ◽

SA Masoodian

Keyword(s):

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Drought Monitoring ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Study Region ◽

Tropical Rainfall ◽

Southwestern Iran ◽

Quantitative Precipitation Estimates

Characterizing the errors in satellite-based precipitation estimations for drought monitoring is of great importance, as these estimations provide both spatially and temporally complete records. The aim of this study was to evaluate satellite-based quantitative precipitation estimates to monitor meteorological drought in southwestern Iran. The reliability of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Version 7 products (3B42 and 3B43) in estimating the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was evaluated against a ground-based gridded precipitation dataset at 0.25° spatial resolution for 1998-2016. The analysis conducted for the SPI at various time scales revealed that both products (3B42 and 3B43) are capable of capturing the spatial and temporal behavior of drought events over the study region, with the best performance at SPI6. 3B43 is also more efficient in the identification of shorter severe drought events compared to 3B42. The findings suggest that both satellite products, particularly 3B43, are suitable to be used directly for SPI computation in the region for drought monitoring and early warning in terms of the accuracy and the spatial and temporal resolutions they provide.

Spatial patterns of European droughts under a moderate emission scenario

Advances in Science and Research ◽

10.5194/asr-12-179-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 179-186 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

J. Spinoni ◽

G. Naumann ◽

J. Vogt

Keyword(s):

Spatial Patterns ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Mediterranean Area ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Monthly Precipitation ◽

Precipitation Increase ◽

Near Future

Abstract. Meteorological drought is generally defined as a prolonged deficiency of precipitation and is considered one of the most relevant natural hazards as the related impacts can involve many different sectors. In this study, we investigated the spatial patterns of European droughts for the periods 1981–2010, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, focusing on the projections under a moderate emissions scenario. To do that, we used the outputs of the KNMI-RACMO2 model, which belongs to the A1B family and whose spatial resolution is 0.25° × 0.25°. By means of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), we computed the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at the 12-month accumulation scale. Thereafter, we separately obtained drought frequency, duration, severity, and intensity for the whole of Europe, excluding Iceland. According to both indicators, the spatial drought patterns are projected to follow what recently characterized Europe: southern Europe, who experienced many severe drought events in the last decades, is likely to be involved by longer, more frequent, severe, and intense droughts in the near future (2041–2070) and even more in the far future (2071–2100). This tendency is more evident using the SPEI, which also depends on temperature and consequently reflects the expected warming that will be highest for the Mediterranean area in Europe. On the other side, less severe and fewer drought events are likely to occur in northern Europe. This tendency is more evident using the SPI, because the precipitation increase is projected to outbalance the temperature (and PET) rise in particular in Scandinavia. Regarding the mid-latitudes, the SPEI-based analyses point at more frequent drought events, while the SPI-based ones point at less frequent events in these regions.

Developing Objective Operational Definitions for Monitoring Drought

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology ◽

10.1175/2009jamc2088.1 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 48 (6) ◽

pp. 1217-1229 ◽

Cited By ~ 88

Author(s):

Steven M. Quiring

Keyword(s):

Water Conservation ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Severity Index ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Specific Method ◽

Spatially Variant ◽

Objective Methodology

Abstract Drought is a complex phenomenon that is difficult to accurately describe because its definition is both spatially variant and context dependent. Decision makers in local, state, and federal agencies commonly use operational drought definitions that are based on specific drought index thresholds to trigger water conservation measures and determine levels of drought assistance. Unfortunately, many state drought plans utilize operational drought definitions that are derived subjectively and therefore may not be appropriate for triggering drought responses. This paper presents an objective methodology for establishing operational drought definitions. The advantages of this methodology are demonstrated by calculating meteorological drought thresholds for the Palmer drought severity index, the standardized precipitation index, and percent of normal precipitation using both station and climate division data from Texas. Results indicate that using subjectively derived operational drought definitions may lead to over- or underestimating true drought severity. Therefore, it is more appropriate to use an objective location-specific method for defining operational drought thresholds.

Spatiotemporal variability of meteorological drought in Romania using the standardized precipitation index (SPI)

Climate Research ◽

10.3354/cr01245 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 60 (3) ◽

pp. 235-248 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

S Cheval ◽

A Busuioc ◽

A Dumitrescu ◽

MV Birsan

Keyword(s):

Meteorological Drought ◽

Precipitation Index ◽

Spatiotemporal Variability ◽

Análisis comparativo de índices de sequía en Andalucía para el periodo 1901-2012

Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica ◽

10.18172/cig.2946 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 42 (1) ◽

pp. 67 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

M. Peña-Gallardo ◽

S. R. Gámiz-Fortís ◽

Y. Castro-Diez ◽

M. J. Esteban-Parra

Keyword(s):

Time Windows ◽

Initial Period ◽

Climatic Variability ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Precipitation Index ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Global Evaluation ◽

Temporal Behaviour ◽

The aim of this paper is the analysis of the detection and evolution of droughts occurred in Andalusia for the period 1901-2012, by applying three different drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Drought-Precipitation Index (IESP), computed for three time windows from the initial period 1901-2012. This analysis has been carried out after a preliminary study of precipitation trends with the intention of understanding the precipitation behaviour, because this climatic variable is one of the most important in the study of extreme events. The specific objectives of this study are: (1) to investigate and characterize the meteorological drought events, mainly the most important episodes in Andalusia; (2) to provide a global evaluation of the capacities of the three different considered indices in order to characterize the drought in a heterogeneous climatically territory; and (3) to describe the temporal behaviour of precipitation and drought indices series in order to establish the general characteristics of their evolution in Andalusia. The results have shown that not all the indices respond similarly identifying the intensity and duration of dry periods in this kind of region where geographical and climatic variability is one of the main elements to be considered.

Analysis of Drought in the Northern Region of Bangladesh Using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

Journal of Environmental Science and Natural Resources ◽

10.3329/jesnr.v11i1-2.43387 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (1-2) ◽

pp. 199-216

Author(s):

R Afrin ◽

F Hossain ◽

SA Mamun

Keyword(s):

Extended Period ◽

Northern Region ◽

Precipitation Index ◽

Rainfall Data ◽

Extreme Drought ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Drought Analysis ◽

Dry Conditions ◽

Drought is an extended period when a region notes a deficiency in its water supply. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method was used in this study to analyze drought. Northern region of Bangladesh was the area of study. Monthly rainfall data of northern region of Bangladesh was obtained from the Meteorological Department of Bangladesh. Obtained rainfall data was from 1991 to 2011 and values from 2012 to 2026 were generated using Markov model. Then SPI values from 1991 to 2026 were calculated by using SPI formula for analyzing drought. Analysis with SPI method showed that droughts in northern region of Bangladesh varied from moderately dry to severely dry conditions and it may vary from moderately dry to severely dry conditions normally in future but in some cases extreme drought may also take place. From the study, it is observed that the northern region of Bangladesh has already experienced severe drought in 1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010. The region may experience severe drought in 2012, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026 and extreme drought in 2012, 2014, 2016, 2023 and 2024. J. Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 11(1-2): 199-216 2018

Elucidating Diverse Drought Characteristics from Two Meteorological Drought Indices (SPI and SPEI) in China

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-19-0290.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 21 (7) ◽

pp. 1513-1530 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Lingcheng Li ◽

Dunxian She ◽

Hui Zheng ◽

Peirong Lin ◽

Zong-Liang Yang

Keyword(s):

Clustering Algorithm ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Three Dimensional ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Small Areas ◽

Drought Characteristics

AbstractThis study elucidates drought characteristics in China during 1980–2015 using two commonly used meteorological drought indices: standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results show that SPEI characterizes an overall increase in drought severity, area, and frequency during 1998–2015 compared with those during 1980–97, mainly due to the increasing potential evapotranspiration. By contrast, SPI does not reveal this phenomenon since precipitation does not exhibit a significant change overall. We further identify individual drought events using the three-dimensional (i.e., longitude, latitude, and time) clustering algorithm and apply the severity–area–duration (SAD) method to examine the drought spatiotemporal dynamics. Compared to SPI, SPEI identifies a lower drought frequency but with larger total drought areas overall. Additionally, SPEI identifies a greater number of severe drought events but a smaller number of slight drought events than the SPI. Approximately 30% of SPI-detected drought grids are not identified as drought by SPEI, and 40% of SPEI-detected drought grids are not recognized as drought by SPI. Both indices can roughly capture the major drought events, but SPEI-detected drought events are overall more severe than SPI. From the SAD analysis, SPI tends to identify drought as more severe over small areas within 1 million km2 and short durations less than 2 months, whereas SPEI tends to delineate drought as more severe across expansive areas larger than 3 million km2 and periods longer than 3 months. Given the fact that potential evapotranspiration increases in a warming climate, this study suggests SPEI may be more suitable than SPI in monitoring droughts under climate change.

Evaluation of temporal drought variation and projection in a tropical river basin of Kerala

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2020.240 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (S1) ◽

pp. 115-132 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

M. A. Jincy Rose ◽

N. R. Chithra

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Tropical River ◽

The Past ◽

Drought Conditions ◽

The Future ◽

Abstract Temperature is an indispensable parameter of climate that triggers evapotranspiration and has vital importance in aggravating drought severity. This paper analyses the existence and persistence of drought conditions which are said to prevail in a tropical river basin which was once perennial. Past observed data and future climate projections of precipitation and temperature were used for this purpose. The assessment and projection of this study employ the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) compared with that of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The results indicate the existence of drought in the past and the drought conditions that may persist in the future according to RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The past drought years identified in the study were compared with the drought declared years in the state and were found to be matching. The evaluation of the future scenarios unveils the occurrence of drought in the basin ranging from mild to extreme conditions. It has been noted that the number of moderate and severe drought months has increased based on SPEI compared to SPI, indicating the importance of temperature in drought studies. The study can be considered as a plausible scientific remark helpful in risk management and application decisions.

Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-19-0084.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (9) ◽

pp. 3635-3661 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Jonathan Spinoni ◽

Paulo Barbosa ◽

Edoardo Bucchignani ◽

John Cassano ◽

Tereza Cavazos ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hot Spots ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

First Century ◽

Horn Of Africa ◽

Global Circulation ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

Meteorological Droughts

AbstractTwo questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981–2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44°) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, ~15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (~47% under RCP4.5, ~49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.

Impact of meteorological drought on agriculture in the Tensift watershed of Morocco

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2019.279 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 1323-1338 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Modeste Meliho ◽

Abdellatif Khattabi ◽

Guy Jobbins ◽

Fathallah Sghir

Keyword(s):

Agricultural Production ◽

Temporal Evolution ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Water Shortage ◽

Water Volume ◽

Annual Crops ◽

Irrigated Area ◽

The Impact

Abstract Located in the mid-west of Morocco, the Tensift watershed shelters the Takerkoust dam, which provides a part of the water used for irrigation of the N'fis agricultural area, which is an important irrigated area of the Tensift watershed. This study deals with the impact of droughts on water inflows to the Takerkoust dam and how the water shortage caused by droughts affects agricultural production in the N'Fis area. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to illustrate the temporal evolution of drought periods. The trend observed on data showed that the Tensift watershed experienced a succession of droughts and humid periods of varying intensities. Periods of drought have negatively affected water inflows to the Takerkoust dam, and therefore the amount of water allocated to agricultural irrigation. Years that experienced droughts showed a restriction of more than 50% of water volume planned for irrigation. During periods of water scarcity, farmers reduce or completely avoid irrigation of annual crops to save water for irrigation of perennial crops. The water shortage for irrigation has led in some cases to a drop of up to 100% of the surface allocated to the production of annual crops.