Performance evaluation of precipitation prediction skill of NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) over Indian region during summer monsoon 2008

The study provides a concise and synthesized documentation of the current level of skill of the NCEP GFS day-1 to day-5 precipitation forecasts during Indian summer monsoon of 2008, making detailed inter-comparison with daily rainfall analysis from the use of rain gauge observations and satellite (KALPANA-1) derived Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) obtained from IMD. Model performance is evaluated for day-1 to day-5 forecasts of 24-hr accumulated precipitation in terms of several accuracy and skill measures. Forecast quality and potential value are found to depend strongly on the verification dataset, geographic region and precipitation threshold. Precipitation forecasts of the model, when accumulated over the whole season, reproduce the observed pattern. However, the model predicted rainfall is comparatively higher than the observed rainfall over most parts of the country during the season. The model showed considerable skill in predicting the daily and seasonal mean rainfall over all India and also over four broad homogeneous regions of India. The model bias for rainfall prediction changes from overestimation to underestimation at the threshold of 25 mm/day except for day-1 forecast. Model skill falls dramatically for occurrence rainfall thresholds greater than 10 mm/day. This implies that the model is much better at predicting the occurrence of rainfall than they are at predicting the magnitude and location of the peak values. Various skill score and categorical statistics for the NCEP GFS model rainfall forecast for monsoon 2008 are prepared and discussed.

Calibration of X-Band Radar for Extreme Events in a Spatially Complex Precipitation Region in North Peru: Machine Learning vs. Empirical Approach

Cost-efficient single-polarized X-band radars are a feasible alternative due to their high sensitivity and resolution, which makes them well suited for complex precipitation patterns. The first horizontal scanning weather radar in Peru was installed in Piura in 2019, after the devastating impact of the 2017 coastal El Niño. To obtain a calibrated rain rate from radar reflectivity, we employ a modified empirical approach and draw a direct comparison to a well-established machine learning technique used for radar QPE. For both methods, preprocessing steps are required, such as clutter and noise elimination, atmospheric, geometric, and precipitation-induced attenuation correction, and hardware variations. For the new empirical approach, the corrected reflectivity is related to rain gauge observations, and a spatially and temporally variable parameter set is iteratively determined. The machine learning approach uses a set of features mainly derived from the radar data. The random forest (RF) algorithm employed here learns from the features and builds decision trees to obtain quantitative precipitation estimates for each bin of detected reflectivity. Both methods capture the spatial variability of rainfall quite well. Validating the empirical approach, it performed better with an overall linear regression slope of 0.65 and r of 0.82. The RF approach had limitations with the quantitative representation (slope = 0.44 and r = 0.65), but it more closely matches the reflectivity distribution, and it is independent of real-time rain-gauge data. Possibly, a weighted mean of both approaches can be used operationally on a daily basis.

A New Methodology to Characterise the Radar Bright Band Using Doppler Spectral Moments from Vertically Pointing Radar Observations

The detection and characterisation of the radar Bright Band (BB) are essential for many applications of weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates, such as heavy rainfall surveillance, hydrological modelling or numerical weather prediction data assimilation. This study presents a new technique to detect the radar BB levels (top, peak and bottom) for Doppler radar spectral moments from the vertically pointing radars applied here to a K-band radar, the MRR-Pro (Micro Rain Radar). The methodology includes signal and noise detection and dealiasing schemes to provide realistic vertical Doppler velocities of precipitating hydrometeors, subsequent calculation of Doppler moments and associated parameters and BB detection and characterisation. Retrieved BB properties are compared with the melting level provided by the MRR-Pro manufacturer software and also with the 0 °C levels for both dry-bulb temperature (freezing level) and wet-bulb temperature from co-located radio soundings in 39 days. In addition, a co-located Parsivel disdrometer is used to analyse the equivalent reflectivity of the lowest radar height bins confirming consistent results of the new signal and noise detection scheme. The processing methodology is coded in a Python program called RaProM-Pro which is freely available in the GitHub repository.

Evaluating Operational and Experimental HRRR model forecasts of Atmospheric River events in California

Improved forecasts of Atmospheric River (AR) events, which provide up to half the annual precipitation in California, may reduce impacts to water supply, lives, and property. We evaluate Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model version 3 (HRRRv3) and version 4 (HRRRv4) for five AR events that occurred in Feb-Mar 2019 and compare them to Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) from Stage IV and Mesonet products. Both HRRR versions forecast spatial patterns of precipitation reasonably well, but are drier than QPE products in the Bay Area and wetter in the Sierra Nevada range. The HRRR dry bias in the Bay Area may be related to biases in the model temperature profile, while IWV, wind speed, and wind direction compare reasonably well. In the Sierra Nevada range, QPE and QPF agree well at temperatures above freezing. Below freezing, the discrepancies are due in part to errors in the QPE products, which are known to underestimate frozen precipitation in mountainous terrain. HRRR frozen QPF accuracy is difficult to quantify, but the model does have wind speed and wind direction biases near the Sierra Nevada range. HRRRv4 is overall more accurate than HRRRv3, likely due to data assimilation improvements, and possibly physics improvements. Applying a Neighborhood Maximum method impacted performance metrics, but did not alter general conclusions, suggesting closest grid box evaluations may be adequate for these types of events. Improvements to QPF in the Bay Area and QPE/QPF in the Sierra Nevada range would be particularly useful to provide better understanding of AR events.

Precipitation Estimates from Commercial Microwave Links: Practical Approaches to Wet-antenna Correction

An inadequate correction for wet antenna attenuation (WAA) often causes a notable bias in quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) from commercial microwave links (CMLs) limiting the usability of these rainfall data in hydrological applications. This paper analyzes how WAA can be corrected without dedicated rainfall monitoring for a set of 16 CMLs. Using data collected over 53 rainfall events, the performance of six empirical WAA models was studied, both when calibrated to rainfall observations from a permanent municipal rain gauge network and when using model parameters from the literature. The transferability of WAA model parameters among CMLs of various characteristics has also been addressed. The results show that high-quality QPEs with a bias below 5% and RMSE of 1 mm/h in the median could be retrieved, even from sub-kilometer CMLs where WAA is relatively large compared to raindrop attenuation. Models in which WAA is proportional to rainfall intensity provide better WAA estimates than constant and time-dependent models. It is also shown that the parameters of models deriving WAA explicitly from rainfall intensity are independent of CML frequency and path length and, thus, transferable to other locations with CMLs of similar antenna properties.

Utilization of Weather Radar Data for the Flash Flood Indicator Application in the Czech Republic

In the past few years, demands on flash flood forecasting have grown. The Flash Flood Indicator (FFI) is a system used at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute for the evaluation of the risk of possible occurrence of flash floods over the whole Czech Republic. The FFI calculation is based on the current soil saturation, the physical-geographical characteristics of every considered area, and radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) and forecasts (QPFs). For higher reliability of the flash flood risk assessment, calculations of QPEs and QPFs are crucial, particularly when very high intensities of rainfall are reached or expected. QPEs and QPFs entering the FFI computations are the products of the Czech Weather Radar Network. The QPF is based on the COTREC extrapolation method. The radar-rain gauge-combining method MERGE2 is used to improve radar-only QPEs and QPFs. It generates a combined radar-rain gauge QPE based on the kriging with an external drift algorithm, and, also, an adjustment coefficient applicable to radar-only QPEs and QPFs. The adjustment coefficient is applied in situations when corresponding rain gauge measurements are not yet available. A new adjustment coefficient scheme was developed and tested to improve the performance of adjusted radar QPEs and QPFs in the FFI.

Calibration of radar differential reflectivity using quasi-vertical profiles

The differential reflectivity (ZDR) is a crucial weather radar measurement that helps to improve quantitative precipitation estimates using polarimetric weather radars. However, a system bias between the horizontal and vertical channels generated by the radar produces an offset in ZDR. Existing methods to calibrate ZDR measurements rely on vertical observations of ZDR taken in rain, in which ZDR values close to 0 dB are expected. However, not all weather radar systems are capable of producing vertical pointing measurements. In this work, we present and analyse a novel method for correcting and monitoring the ZDR offset using quasi-vertical profiles of polarimetric variables. The method is applied to radar data collected through one year of precipitation events by two operational C-band weather radars in the UK. The proposed method proves effective in achieving the required accuracy of 0.1 dB for the calibration of ZDR as the calibration results are consistent with the traditional method based on vertical profiles. Additionally, the method is independently evaluated using disdrometers located near the radar sites. The results showed a good agreement between disdrometer-derived and radar-calibrated ZDR measurements.

Use of Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs) for Improved Hydrological Model Calibration and Flood Forecasting

Flood forecasting is essential to minimize the impacts and costs of floods, especially in urbanized watersheds. Radar rainfall estimates are becoming increasingly popular in flood forecasting because they provide the much-needed real-time spatially distributed precipitation information. The current study evaluates the use of radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs) in hydrological model calibration for streamflow simulation and flood mapping in an urban setting. Firstly, S-band and C-band radar QPEs were integrated into event-based hydrological models to improve the calibration of model parameters. Then, rain gauge and radar precipitation estimates’ performances were compared for hydrological modeling in an urban watershed to assess radar QPE's effects on streamflow simulation accuracy. Finally, flood extent maps were produced using coupled hydrological-hydraulic models integrated within the Hydrologic Engineering Center- Real-Time Simulation (HEC-RTS) framework. It is shown that the bias correction of radar QPEs can enhance the hydrological model calibration. The radar-gauge merging obtained a KGE, MPFC, NSE, and VE improvement of about + 0.42, + 0.12, + 0.78, and − 0.23, respectively for S-band and + 0.64, + 0.36, + 1.12, and − 0.34, respectively for C-band radar QPEs. Merged radar QPEs are also helpful in running hydrological models calibrated using gauge data. The HEC-RTS framework can be used to produce flood forecast maps using the bias-corrected radar QPEs. Therefore, radar rainfall estimates could be efficiently used to forecast floods in urbanized areas for effective flood management and mitigation. Canadian flood forecasting systems could be efficiently updated by integrating bias-corrected radar QPEs to simulate streamflow and produce flood inundation maps.

Dynamic rainfall mapping using multi-radar multi-gauge observations in changing synoptic environments

<p>It is well known that the performance of radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimates greatly relies on the physical model of the raindrop size distribution (DSD) and the relation between the physical model and radar parameters. However, incorporating changing precipitation microphysics to dynamically adjust the radar reflectivity (Z) and rain rate (R) relations can be challenging for real-time applications. In this study, two adaptive radar rainfall approaches are developed based on the radar-gauge feedback mechanism using 16 S-band Doppler weather radars and 4579 surface rain gauges deployed over the Eastern JiangHuai River Basin (EJRB) in China. Although the Z–R relations in both approaches are dynamically adjusted within a single precipitation system, one is using a single global optimal (SGO) Z–R relation, whereas the other is using different Z–R relations for different storm cells identified by a storm cell identification and tracking (SCIT) algorithm. Four precipitation events featured by different rainfall microphysical characteristics are investigated to demonstrate the performances of these two rainfall mapping methodologies. In addition, the short-term vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR) clusters are extensively analyzed to resolve the storm-scale characteristics of different storm cells. The verification results based on independent gauge observations show that both rainfall estimation approaches with dynamic Z–R relations perform much better than fixed Z–R relations. The adaptive approach incorporating the SCIT algorithm and real-time gauge measurements performs best since it can better capture the spatial variability and temporal evolution of precipitation.</p>