scholarly journals Looking back to the future? Possible pandemic scenarios from the past with relevance for autumn/winter 2021, and the years ahead

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaspar Staub
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Similar Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
Swiss Canton ◽  
Morbidity Data ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
To Come ◽  
1918 Influenza ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
Autumn And Winter

In many places the current coronavirus pandemic is the most severe pandemic since the 1918 influenza pandemic (“Spanish flu”). In many European countries before 2020, past experiences with pandemics had not been sufficiently studied and were no longer present in the minds of the general public or authorities. This article highlights scenarios from the past that may offer guidance as we move towards autumn and winter 2021. High quality morbidity data from the Swiss canton of Bern 1918-1930 is re-used here and complemented with similar data from 1957, SARS-CoV-2 data from 2020, as well as temperature series for all three years. A first possible scenario that emerges from experiences in all three pandemic years is that the onset of the fall waves at the beginning of October, occurred 0-2 weeks after the first drop in temperatures at the end of September (calendar week 39). This temporal coincidence can also be coincidental, and does not imply causality. However, this risk is also present for the coming autumn of 2021, all the more so if the case numbers will not be low everywhere then because of the delta variant. When temperatures start to fall, people will stay indoors more, which will increase the risk of infection for the unprotected or only partially protected subgroups of the population. In the winter of 1920, the influenza virus returned in the form of a relatively strong “echo” wave probably due to incomplete immunization of the population and/or virus mutations, and thereafter in the form of milder seasonal waves. This is a second scenario that many experts also consider possible for SARS-CoV-2. We do not know yet what will happen in autumn/winter 2021 and in the years to come. However, the past at least provides some scenarios of what happened in partly comparable situations in 1918 and thereafter. To not at least consider these possible scenarios in pandemic planning for the coming period would be a missed opportunity.

Demographic and Evolutionary Consequences of Pandemic Diseases

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sharon DeWitte ◽  
Amanda Wissler
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
The Past ◽  
New Perspective ◽  
1918 Influenza ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
Evolutionary Consequences ◽  
Catastrophic Disease ◽  
Health Experts

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has justifiably captured the attention of people around the world since late 2019. It has produced in many people a new perspective on or, indeed, a new realization about our potential vulnerability to emerging infectious diseases. However, our species has experienced numerous catastrophic disease pandemics in the past, and in addition to concerns about the harm being produced during the pandemic and the potential long-term sequelae of the disease, what has been frustrating for many public health experts, anthropologists, and historians is awareness that many of the outcomes of COVID-19 are not inevitable and might have been preventable had we actually heeded lessons from the past. We are currently witnessing variation in exposure risk, symptoms, and mortality from COVID-19, but these patterns are not surprising given what we know about past pandemics. We review here the literature on the demographic and evolutionary consequences of the Second Pandemic of Plague (ca. fourteenth–nineteenth centuries C.E.) and the 1918 influenza pandemic, two of the most devastating pandemics in recorded human history. These both provide case studies of the ways in which sociocultural and environmental contexts shape the experiences and outcomes of pandemic disease. Many of the factors at work during these past pandemics continue to be reproduced in modern contexts, and ultimately our hope is that by highlighting the outcomes that are at least theoretically preventable, we can leverage our knowledge about past experiences to prepare for and respond to disease today.

The Spanish Flu and the Sanitary Dictatorship: Mexico's Response to the 1918 Influenza Pandemic

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 443-465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan M. Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Secondary Complications ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
1918 Influenza ◽  
Combat Casualties ◽  
The Revolution

The influenza of 1918, the disastrous global pandemic known to many as the Spanish Flu, could not have come at a worse time for Mexico. The nation was eight years into its decade-long revolutionary struggle, a conflict that claimed the lives of well over a million citizens. Of those lost, several hundred thousand perished due to the influenza alone, usually from secondary complications such as pneumonia or bronchitis. Along with exposure, famine, and a myriad of other wartime ailments, the 1918 flu ranked as one of the leading causes of death in the Revolution, far surpassing combat casualties.

scholarly journals PENGEMBANGAN LITERATUR SEJARAH AMERIKA BERBASIS ECOPEDAGOGY DI JURUSAN PENDIDIKAN SEJARAH

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Abd Haris Nasution ◽  
Flores Tanjung ◽  
Arfan Diansyah
Keyword(s):  
Field Testing ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Development Method ◽  
Validity Test ◽  
The Past ◽  
Important Solution ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
Preliminary Study ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
Study Development

Environmental intelligence or ecopedagogy today is important to be internalized in students as part of the environment. History records that increasing environmental intelligence / ecopedagogy is one of the solutions that have been implemented by the Americans in dealing with various pandemics such as the Blackdeath plague (14-15 century), smallpox epidemic (15 century), Yellow Fever (18 century), Spanish Flu (century 20). When the world is hit by the Sars, Mers and Covid-19 Pandemic in the 21st century, ecopedagogy is an important solution in terms of prevention. This study purpose is  producing an ecopedagogy-based American History literature that can be used as a guideline / solution for the prevention of the Covid-19 pandemic against the background of the past experiences of Americans in overcoming various kinds of pandemics. This study uses the Research and Development method of the Borg and Gall model which consists of 4 stages, namely Preliminary Study, Development, Field Testing, Dissemination and Product Socialization. The results of this study indicate that as a medium of literature this is in the Good category with a mean score of 4.14 from the results of the validity test. While the material content obtained a score of 4.14 from the validity test results and entered into the good category. The limitation of this research is until the stage of product dissemination and socialization. This research has a novelty value in the form of American Green History literature products.

Pandemic Reemergence and Four Waves of Excess Mortality Coinciding With the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Michigan: Insights for COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (3) ◽  
pp. 430-437
Author(s):  
Siddharth Chandra ◽  
Julia Christensen ◽  
Madhur Chandra ◽  
Nigel Paneth
Keyword(s):  
Broad Spectrum ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
The State ◽  
Viral Pathogens ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
1918 Influenza

The global influenza pandemic that emerged in 1918 has become the event of reference for a broad spectrum of policymakers seeking to learn from the past. This article sheds light on multiple waves of excess mortality that occurred in the US state of Michigan at the time with insights into how epidemics might evolve and propagate across space and time. We analyzed original monthly data on all-cause deaths by county for the 83 counties of Michigan and interpreted the results in the context of what is known about the pandemic. Counties in Michigan experienced up to four waves of excess mortality over a span of two years, including a severe one in early 1920. Some counties experienced two waves in late 1918 while others had only one. The 1920 wave propagated across the state in a different manner than the fall and winter 1918 waves. The twin waves in late 1918 were likely related to the timing of the statewide imposition of a three-week social distancing order. Michigan’s experience holds sobering lessons for those who wish to understand how immunologically naïve populations encounter novel viral pathogens.

The End Has (Not Yet) Come: The 1918 Spanish Flu and the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Brazilian Seventh-day Adventist Bulletin

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-47
Author(s):  
Allan Novaes
Keyword(s):  
Emotional Support ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Seventh Day Adventist ◽  
Concerted Effort ◽  
Societal Values ◽  
Narrative Tradition ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Similarities And Differences ◽  
1918 Influenza

This is a comparative analysis of similarities and differences between the Brazilian Adventist discourse on the 1918 Influenza pandemic – also known as the Spanish Flu – and the current Brazilian Adventist discourse on the COVID-19 pandemic. It focuses on how Adventists articulate the distinctive eschatological and sanitary elements of their narrative tradition in order to explain the two crises and to situate themselves in relation to them. The analysis corpus contains select texts published in Revista Adventista, the official bulletin of Brazilian Seventh-day Adventists, pertaining to two time periods: 1918–1920 and the first quarter of 2020. Both materials present pandemic crises as opportunities for evangelism since they display the understanding that societal values and paradigms become less impervious to religion in such conditions. But they differ in the fact that the 1918–1920 material concentrates on religious expansion and doctrine, especially emphasising the message of impending judgement of a Great Controversy metanarrative, while the 2020 material explores the medical and humanitarian aspects connected to the pandemic, transcending a purely eschatological emphasis and accommodating a concerted effort to give the readers emotional support to face the pandemic.

scholarly journals The parallels between COVID-19 and the Spanish flu of 1918

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 4687
Author(s):  
Markordor Lyngdoh
Keyword(s):  
Vaccine Development ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The World ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
Avian Origin ◽  
1918 Influenza ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. On the other hand, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused by a novel coronavirus hailed by the world health organization as a “once in a century health crisis” which has led to devastating impacts to health and livelihood the world over. The prevailing situation is reminiscent of the Spanish flu where definitive cure is unavailable and the public health measures like quarantine, social distancing, hand hygiene and isolation are the only alternatives. Both these diseases are transmitted through respiratory droplets, highly contagious and target the respiratory organs. The parallels between these two events cannot be denied. The Spanish flu thrived at a time when the knowledge and availability of antivirals and vaccine development were inadequate. This article strives to highlight a little more on these two separate pandemics and observe their similarities as well as their differences.

The 1918 Influenza Pandemic Versus COVID-19: A Historical Perspective From an Italian Point of View

2021 ◽  
pp. e1-e9
Author(s):  
Andrea Cozza ◽  
Giuseppe Maggioni ◽  
Gaetano Thiene ◽  
Maurizio Rippa Bonati
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
H1n1 Influenza ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
World Health ◽  
Journal Articles ◽  
National Guidelines ◽  
History Of ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
1918 Influenza ◽  
Health Organization

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has a major precedent almost exactly a century ago: the world-famous H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, sometimes known to the general public as the Spanish flu. From a history of medicine perspective, it is possible to underline many potential common traits between the two. In this article, hygiene and prophylaxis strategies are analyzed in a review of the most popular Italian general medical journals at the time of Spanish flu, Il Policlinico being the most representative of them. The analysis included 40 original journal articles as well as important references to the most influential coeval national manuals and international journals. The main issues in the context of public hygiene are prophylaxis with quinine and quinine derivatives, vaccinations, face masks, disinfection, and social distancing. We draw a comparison between these and the most recent international World Health Organization and Italian national guidelines on the topic. Sadly, little has changed since those times in terms of most of the prevention techniques, even with technical improvements, showing how shortsighted doctors and physicians can be when dealing with medical history. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print September 2, 2021: e1–e9. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306455 )

scholarly journals Reconstruction of the 1918 Influenza Virus: Unexpected Rewards from the Past

mBio ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffery K. Taubenberger ◽  
David Baltimore ◽  
Peter C. Doherty ◽  
Howard Markel ◽  
David M. Morens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Virus ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Etiologic Agent ◽  
Viral Rna ◽  
Rna Sequences ◽  
Severe Morbidity ◽  
The Past ◽  
1918 Influenza ◽  
And Control ◽  
Virus Biology

ABSTRACTThe influenza pandemic of 1918–1919 killed approximately 50 million people. The unusually severe morbidity and mortality associated with the pandemic spurred physicians and scientists to isolate the etiologic agent, but the virus was not isolated in 1918. In 1996, it became possible to recover and sequence highly degraded fragments of influenza viral RNA retained in preserved tissues from several 1918 victims. These viral RNA sequences eventually permitted reconstruction of the complete 1918 virus, which has yielded, almost a century after the deaths of its victims, novel insights into influenza virus biology and pathogenesis and has provided important information about how to prevent and control future pandemics.

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