Demographic and Evolutionary Consequences of Pandemic Diseases

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sharon DeWitte ◽  
Amanda Wissler
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
The Past ◽  
New Perspective ◽  
1918 Influenza ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
Evolutionary Consequences ◽  
Catastrophic Disease ◽  
Health Experts

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has justifiably captured the attention of people around the world since late 2019. It has produced in many people a new perspective on or, indeed, a new realization about our potential vulnerability to emerging infectious diseases. However, our species has experienced numerous catastrophic disease pandemics in the past, and in addition to concerns about the harm being produced during the pandemic and the potential long-term sequelae of the disease, what has been frustrating for many public health experts, anthropologists, and historians is awareness that many of the outcomes of COVID-19 are not inevitable and might have been preventable had we actually heeded lessons from the past. We are currently witnessing variation in exposure risk, symptoms, and mortality from COVID-19, but these patterns are not surprising given what we know about past pandemics. We review here the literature on the demographic and evolutionary consequences of the Second Pandemic of Plague (ca. fourteenth–nineteenth centuries C.E.) and the 1918 influenza pandemic, two of the most devastating pandemics in recorded human history. These both provide case studies of the ways in which sociocultural and environmental contexts shape the experiences and outcomes of pandemic disease. Many of the factors at work during these past pandemics continue to be reproduced in modern contexts, and ultimately our hope is that by highlighting the outcomes that are at least theoretically preventable, we can leverage our knowledge about past experiences to prepare for and respond to disease today.

scholarly journals Looking back to the future? Possible pandemic scenarios from the past with relevance for autumn/winter 2021, and the years ahead

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaspar Staub
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Similar Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
Swiss Canton ◽  
Morbidity Data ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
To Come ◽  
1918 Influenza ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
Autumn And Winter

In many places the current coronavirus pandemic is the most severe pandemic since the 1918 influenza pandemic (“Spanish flu”). In many European countries before 2020, past experiences with pandemics had not been sufficiently studied and were no longer present in the minds of the general public or authorities. This article highlights scenarios from the past that may offer guidance as we move towards autumn and winter 2021. High quality morbidity data from the Swiss canton of Bern 1918-1930 is re-used here and complemented with similar data from 1957, SARS-CoV-2 data from 2020, as well as temperature series for all three years. A first possible scenario that emerges from experiences in all three pandemic years is that the onset of the fall waves at the beginning of October, occurred 0-2 weeks after the first drop in temperatures at the end of September (calendar week 39). This temporal coincidence can also be coincidental, and does not imply causality. However, this risk is also present for the coming autumn of 2021, all the more so if the case numbers will not be low everywhere then because of the delta variant. When temperatures start to fall, people will stay indoors more, which will increase the risk of infection for the unprotected or only partially protected subgroups of the population. In the winter of 1920, the influenza virus returned in the form of a relatively strong “echo” wave probably due to incomplete immunization of the population and/or virus mutations, and thereafter in the form of milder seasonal waves. This is a second scenario that many experts also consider possible for SARS-CoV-2. We do not know yet what will happen in autumn/winter 2021 and in the years to come. However, the past at least provides some scenarios of what happened in partly comparable situations in 1918 and thereafter. To not at least consider these possible scenarios in pandemic planning for the coming period would be a missed opportunity.

scholarly journals Implicitly learning when to be ready: From instances to categories

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wouter Kruijne ◽  
Riccardo M. Galli ◽  
Sander A. Los
Keyword(s):  
Target Stimulus ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Warning Stimulus ◽  
Transfer Phase ◽  
Temporal Preparation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
Rolling Regression

AbstractThere is growing appreciation for the role of long-term memory in guiding temporal preparation in speeded reaction time tasks. In experiments with variable foreperiods between a warning stimulus (S1) and a target stimulus (S2), preparation is affected by foreperiod distributions experienced in the past, long after the distribution has changed. These effects from memory can shape preparation largely implicitly, outside of participants’ awareness. Recent studies have demonstrated the associative nature of memory-guided preparation. When distinct S1s predict different foreperiods, they can trigger differential preparation accordingly. Here, we propose that memory-guided preparation allows for another key feature of learning: the ability to generalize across acquired associations and apply them to novel situations. Participants completed a variable foreperiod task where S1 was a unique image of either a face or a scene on each trial. Images of either category were paired with different distributions with predominantly shorter versus predominantly longer foreperiods. Participants displayed differential preparation to never-before seen images of either category, without being aware of the predictive nature of these categories. They continued doing so in a subsequent Transfer phase, after they had been informed that these contingencies no longer held. A novel rolling regression analysis revealed at a fine timescale how category-guided preparation gradually developed throughout the task, and that explicit information about these contingencies only briefly disrupted memory-guided preparation. These results offer new insights into temporal preparation as the product of a largely implicit process governed by associative learning from past experiences.

Pandemic Reemergence and Four Waves of Excess Mortality Coinciding With the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Michigan: Insights for COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (3) ◽  
pp. 430-437
Author(s):  
Siddharth Chandra ◽  
Julia Christensen ◽  
Madhur Chandra ◽  
Nigel Paneth
Keyword(s):  
Broad Spectrum ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
The State ◽  
Viral Pathogens ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
1918 Influenza

The global influenza pandemic that emerged in 1918 has become the event of reference for a broad spectrum of policymakers seeking to learn from the past. This article sheds light on multiple waves of excess mortality that occurred in the US state of Michigan at the time with insights into how epidemics might evolve and propagate across space and time. We analyzed original monthly data on all-cause deaths by county for the 83 counties of Michigan and interpreted the results in the context of what is known about the pandemic. Counties in Michigan experienced up to four waves of excess mortality over a span of two years, including a severe one in early 1920. Some counties experienced two waves in late 1918 while others had only one. The 1920 wave propagated across the state in a different manner than the fall and winter 1918 waves. The twin waves in late 1918 were likely related to the timing of the statewide imposition of a three-week social distancing order. Michigan’s experience holds sobering lessons for those who wish to understand how immunologically naïve populations encounter novel viral pathogens.

scholarly journals Will prenatal exposure to SARS-CoV-2 define a birth cohort with accelerated aging in the century ahead?

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Molly Crimmins Easterlin ◽  
Eileen M. Crimmins ◽  
Caleb E. Finch
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Studies ◽  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Accelerated Aging ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
In Utero ◽  
Respiratory Syndrome Virus ◽  
Maternal Infection ◽  
1918 Influenza

Abstract The 1918 Influenza pandemic had long-term impacts on the cohort exposed in utero which experienced earlier adult mortality, and more diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and depression after age 50. It is possible that the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will also have long-term impacts on the cohort that was in utero during the pandemic, from exposure to maternal infection and/or the stress of the pandemic environment. We discuss how COVID-19 disease during pregnancy may affect fetal and postnatal development with adverse impacts on health and aging. Severe maternal infections are associated with an exaggerated inflammatory response, thromboembolic events, and placental vascular malperfusion. We also discuss how in utero exposure to the stress of the pandemic, without maternal infection, may impact health and aging. Several recently initiated birth cohort studies are tracking neonatal health following in utero severe acute respiratory syndrome virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) exposure. We suggest these cohort studies develop plans for longer-term observations of physical, behavioral, and cognitive functions that are markers for accelerated aging, as well as methods to disentangle the effects of maternal infection from stresses of the pandemic environment. In utero exposure to COVID-19 disease could cause developmental difficulties and accelerated aging in the century ahead. This brief review summarizes elements of the developmental origins of health, disease, and ageing and discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic might exacerbate such effects. We conclude with a call for research on the long-term consequences of in utero exposure to maternal infection with COVID-19 and stresses of the pandemic environment.

scholarly journals COVID-19: Look to the Future, Learn from the Past

Viruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1226
Author(s):  
Zhangkai J. Cheng ◽  
Hui-Qi Qu ◽  
Lifeng Tian ◽  
Zhifeng Duan ◽  
Hakon Hakonarson
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Management Strategy ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
New Type ◽  
New Perspective ◽  
And Control ◽  
A Current ◽  
Control Management

There is a current pandemic of a new type of coronavirus, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The number of confirmed infected cases has been rapidly increasing. This paper analyzes the characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 in comparison with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and influenza. COVID-19 is similar to the diseases caused by SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV virologically and etiologically, but closer to influenza in epidemiology and virulence. The comparison provides a new perspective for the future of the disease control, and offers some ideas in the prevention and control management strategy. The large number of infectious people from the origin, and the highly infectious and occult nature have been two major problems, making the virus difficult to eradicate. We thus need to contemplate the possibility of long-term co-existence with COVID-19.

scholarly journals Implicitly learning when to be ready: from instances to categories

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
wouter kruijne ◽  
Riccardo Mattia Galli ◽  
Sander Los
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Warning Stimulus ◽  
Transfer Phase ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Temporal Preparation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
Rolling Regression

[Manuscript submitted for review]There is growing appreciation for the role of long-term memory in guiding temporal preparation. In experiments with variable foreperiods between a warning stimulus (S1) and a target stimulus (S2), preparation is affected by foreperiod distributions experienced in the past, long after the distribution has changed. Such memory-guided preparation shapes preparation largely implicitly and outside of a participants’ control. Recent studies have demonstrated the associative nature of such memory-guided preparation. When distinct S1s predict different foreperiods, they can trigger dissociative preparation accordingly. Here, we demonstrate that memory-guided preparation allows for another key feature of learning: the ability to generalize across acquired associations and apply them to novel situations. Participants completed a foreperiod task where S1 was a unique image of either a face or a scene on each trial. Images of either category were paired with different distributions with predominantly shorter versus predominantly longer foreperiods. Participants displayed dissociative preparation to never-before seen images of either category, without being aware of the predictive nature of these categories. They continued doing so in a subsequent transfer phase, after they had been informed that these contingencies no longer held. A novel rolling regression analysis revealed at a fine timescale how category-guided preparation gradually developed throughout the task, and illustrated how instructions at the start of the transfer phase interacted with these influences from long-term memory. These results offer new insights into temporal preparation as the product of a largely implicit process governed by associative learning from past experiences.

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