Pandemic Reemergence and Four Waves of Excess Mortality Coinciding With the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Michigan: Insights for COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (3) ◽  
pp. 430-437
Author(s):  
Siddharth Chandra ◽  
Julia Christensen ◽  
Madhur Chandra ◽  
Nigel Paneth
Keyword(s):  
Broad Spectrum ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
The State ◽  
Viral Pathogens ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
1918 Influenza

The global influenza pandemic that emerged in 1918 has become the event of reference for a broad spectrum of policymakers seeking to learn from the past. This article sheds light on multiple waves of excess mortality that occurred in the US state of Michigan at the time with insights into how epidemics might evolve and propagate across space and time. We analyzed original monthly data on all-cause deaths by county for the 83 counties of Michigan and interpreted the results in the context of what is known about the pandemic. Counties in Michigan experienced up to four waves of excess mortality over a span of two years, including a severe one in early 1920. Some counties experienced two waves in late 1918 while others had only one. The 1920 wave propagated across the state in a different manner than the fall and winter 1918 waves. The twin waves in late 1918 were likely related to the timing of the statewide imposition of a three-week social distancing order. Michigan’s experience holds sobering lessons for those who wish to understand how immunologically naïve populations encounter novel viral pathogens.

Population Issues and Reproductive Politics

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rickie Solinger
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Reproductive Politics ◽  
The Past ◽  
United States Today ◽  
The Us

What is the state of population growth in the United States today, and how is it affected by immigration? According to the 2010 census, the US population has grown 9.7 percent (adding about 27 million people, including about 13 million immigrants) during the past...

scholarly journals Effects of Isolation Among Older Adults Due to Coronavirus Restrictions

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 483-484
Author(s):  
Cynthia Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Family Members ◽  
Daily Activities ◽  
New Disease ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Daily Lives ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us

Abstract Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 35 residents in a Maryland condominium, four to six months after the presence of the epidemic in the US was recognized in mid-March. The objective was to determine to what extent the restrictions resulting from the presence of a new disease was affecting older adults in their daily lives, and in their plans for the future. All respondents were over the age of 60 and half were more than 80 years old. Two-thirds lived by themselves; most others lived with a husband or wife. Respondents for the most part were following guidelines to wear masks, practice social distancing and avoid close contact with persons outside their homes, including other family members. Over half had already made dramatic changes in their daily activities. Some found an opportunity to develop new skills, had connected with people from the past, or had become more introspective. Others, while exhibiting some of the same characteristics, were more focused on the restrictions they faced, and were more aware than ever of the limited amount of time left in their lives. Differences between respondents in the emphasis of their perspectives are explored, by age, gender, and other characteristics.

scholarly journals News from the front: Estimation of excess mortality and life expectancy in the major epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Ghislandi ◽  
Raya Muttarak ◽  
Markus Sauerberg ◽  
Benedetta Scotti
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
National Level ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Lombardy Region ◽  
1918 Influenza ◽  
The Impact

AbstractExisting studies on the mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic commonly rely on national official reports. However, in a pandemic, deaths from COVID-19 can be miscounted due to under-reporting and inaccurate death registration. Official statistics on COVID-19 mortality are sensitive to classification, estimation and reporting practice which are not consistent across countries. Likewise, the reported mortality is often provided at the national level which results in underestimation of the true scale of the human life impact given that the outbreaks are localised.This study overcomes the problem of under-reporting of COVID-19-related deaths by using all cause daily death registrations data provided by the Italian Statistical Office (ISTAT) from January 1 to April 30, 2020 in comparison with official figures reported by the Civil Protection Department. The study focuses on the five most severely hit provinces in Italy (Bergamo, Brescia, Cremona, Lodi and Piacenza) and Lombardy region. We calculate excess mortality in 2020 compared to the average of the years 2015 to 2019 and estimate life expectancy for the first wave of the epidemic and for the rest of the year 2020. Not only is life expectancy a reliable measure of a country’s health status and development, it also allows us to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on human life.The estimated excess deaths show significantly higher mortality than COVID-19 official mortality statistics, particularly during the peak of the epidemic and amongst people aged 60 years and over. We find that for the first wave of the epidemic, life expectancy in the five provinces reduced by 5.1 to 7.8 and 3.2 to 5.8 years for men and women, respectively. For annual life expectancy for the year 2020, in a scenario with no harvesting effect i.e. mortality rates resume to an average level of the years 2015-2019 after the end of the first epidemic wave, the years of life lost is equivalent to 2 to 3.5 years for men and 1.1. to 2.5 years for women in the five provinces.The COVID-19 pandemic posed a substantial impact on population health in Italy as it represents the largest decline in life expectancy after the 1918 influenza pandemic and the Second World War.

scholarly journals Characterization of atmospheric aerosol in the US Southeast from ground- and space-based measurements over the past decade

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 7559-7595
Author(s):  
E. J. Alston ◽  
I. N. Sokolik ◽  
O. V. Kalashnikova
Keyword(s):  
Regional Scale ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
The State ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Epa ◽  
Terra Satellite ◽  
Strong Seasonality ◽  
Good Agreement

Abstract. This study examines how aerosols measured from the ground and space over the US Southeast change temporally over a regional scale during the past decade. PM2.5 data consist of two datasets that represent the measurements that are used for regulatory purposes by the US EPA and continuous measurements used for quickly disseminating air quality information. AOD data comes from three NASA sensors: the MODIS sensors onboard Terra and Aqua satellites and the MISR sensor onboard the Terra satellite. We analyze all available data over the state of Georgia from 2000–2009 of both types of aerosol data. The analysis reveals that during the summer the large metropolitan area of Atlanta has average PM2.5 concentrations that are 50% more than the remainder of the state. Strong seasonality is detected in both the AOD and PM2.5 datasets; as evidenced by a threefold increase of AOD from mean winter values to mean summer values, and the increase in PM2.5 concentrations is almost twofold from over the same period. Additionally, there is good agreement between MODIS and MISR onboard the Terra satellite during the spring and summer having correlation coefficients of 0.64 and 0.71, respectively. Monthly anomalies were used to determine the presence of a trend in all considered aerosol datasets. We found negative linear trends in both the monthly AOD anomalies from MODIS onboard Terra and the PM2.5 datasets, which are statistically significant for α = 0.05. Decreasing trends were also found for MISR onboard Terra and MODIS onboard Aqua, but those trends were not statistically significant.

scholarly journals "Euroslam" - is it ridda or time consuming?

2005 ◽  
pp. 22-39
Author(s):  
T. Hazyr-Ogly
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
East Asia ◽  
North Africa ◽  
The State ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Monitoring Center ◽  
Muslim Communities

Islam is now professed by the population of many countries in the Middle East, Asia, Africa, Europe. According to the World Islamic League, as of 2004, there were 1.2 billion Islamic followers in different countries (around 120 countries). In 35 countries, Muslims now make up 95-99 percent of the population, in 17 countries Islam is the state religion, and in 25 states, Muslims are an influential minority. Muslim communities are overwhelmed in Asia and North Africa. But they are also present in Europe, the US and Japan. According to statistics from the European Monitoring Center and Xenophobia (EUMC), Islam is the only religious religion in the world over the past 100 years, from 13 to 19.5 percent.

Demographic and Evolutionary Consequences of Pandemic Diseases

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sharon DeWitte ◽  
Amanda Wissler
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
The Past ◽  
New Perspective ◽  
1918 Influenza ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
Evolutionary Consequences ◽  
Catastrophic Disease ◽  
Health Experts

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has justifiably captured the attention of people around the world since late 2019. It has produced in many people a new perspective on or, indeed, a new realization about our potential vulnerability to emerging infectious diseases. However, our species has experienced numerous catastrophic disease pandemics in the past, and in addition to concerns about the harm being produced during the pandemic and the potential long-term sequelae of the disease, what has been frustrating for many public health experts, anthropologists, and historians is awareness that many of the outcomes of COVID-19 are not inevitable and might have been preventable had we actually heeded lessons from the past. We are currently witnessing variation in exposure risk, symptoms, and mortality from COVID-19, but these patterns are not surprising given what we know about past pandemics. We review here the literature on the demographic and evolutionary consequences of the Second Pandemic of Plague (ca. fourteenth–nineteenth centuries C.E.) and the 1918 influenza pandemic, two of the most devastating pandemics in recorded human history. These both provide case studies of the ways in which sociocultural and environmental contexts shape the experiences and outcomes of pandemic disease. Many of the factors at work during these past pandemics continue to be reproduced in modern contexts, and ultimately our hope is that by highlighting the outcomes that are at least theoretically preventable, we can leverage our knowledge about past experiences to prepare for and respond to disease today.

Accounting for Civilian Casualties: From the Past to the Future

2018 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 379-410 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas P. Jewell ◽  
Michael Spagat ◽  
Britta L. Jewell
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
World War I ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
World War ◽  
The Past ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Civil War

Assessment of the extent of civilian casualties during times of conflict presents significant challenges in data collection, quantitative methods, interpretation, and presentation. In this article, we briefly consider the motivation and use of casualty accounting and review historical approaches to these questions with illustrative comments on the US Civil War, World War I, World War II, and other conflicts. We provide an overview of several accounting methodologies including excess mortality, epidemiologic surveys, direct and indirect counts, multiple list estimation, and crowdsourcing. We reflect on the evolution toward modern approaches to casualty assessments, permitted by both a deeper understanding of human rights and by contemporaneous technological advances in data collection techniques. Our goal is to introduce several areas of research that deserve attention from social science historians and statisticians.

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