A blinded evaluation of privacy preserving record linkage with Bloom filters

Background Privacy preserving record linkage (PPRL) methods using Bloom filters have shown promise for use in operational linkage settings. However real-world evaluations are required to confirm their suitability in practice. Methods An extract of records from the Western Australian (WA) Hospital Morbidity Data Collection 2011–2015 and WA Death Registrations 2011–2015 were encoded to Bloom filters, and then linked using privacy-preserving methods. Results were compared to a traditional, un-encoded linkage of the same datasets using the same blocking criteria to enable direct investigation of the comparison step. The encoded linkage was carried out in a blinded setting, where there was no access to un-encoded data or a ‘truth set’. Results The PPRL method using Bloom filters provided similar linkage quality to the traditional un-encoded linkage, with 99.3% of ‘groupings’ identical between privacy preserving and clear-text linkage. Conclusion The Bloom filter method appears suitable for use in situations where clear-text identifiers cannot be provided for linkage.

Prediction of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in Russia based on simple mathematical models of epidemics

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic which began in 2020 and has taken more than five million lives has become a threat to the very existence of mankind. Therefore, predicting the spread of COVID-19 in each individual country is a very urgent task. The complexity of its solution is due to the requirement for fast processing of large amounts of data and the fact that the data are mostly inaccurate and do not have the statistical properties necessary for the successful application of statistical methods. Therefore, it seems important to develop simple forecasting methods based on classical simple models of epidemiology which are only weakly sensitive to data inaccuracies. It is also important to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach in relation to the incidence data in Russia. Purpose: Obtaining forecast data based on classical simple models of epidemics, namely SIR and SEIR. Methods: For discrete versions of SIR and SEIR models, it is proposed to estimate the parameters of the models using a reduced version of the least squares method, and apply a scenario approach to the forecasting. The simplicity and a small number of parameters are the advantages of SIR and SEIR models, which is very important in the context of a lack of numerical input data and structural incompleteness of the models. Results: A forecast of the spread of COVID-19 in Russia has been built based on published data on the incidence from March 10 to April 20, 2020, and then, selectively, according to October 2020 data and October 2021 data. The results of the comparison between SIR and SEIR forecasts are presented. The same method was used to construct and present forecasts based on morbidity data in the fall of 2020 and in the fall of 2021 for Russia and for St. Petersburg. To set the parameters of the models which are difficult to determine from the official data, a scenario approach is used: the dynamics of the epidemic is analyzed for several possible values of the parameters. Practical relevance: The results obtained show that the proposed method predicts well the time of the onset of the peak incidence, despite the inaccuracy of the initial data.

Recovering from a pandemic: pulmonary fibrosis after SARS-CoV-2 infection

Acute manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection continue to impact the lives of many across the world. Post-acute sequelae of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may affect 10–30% of survivors of COVID-19, and post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC)-pulmonary fibrosis is a long-term outcome associated with major morbidity. Data from prior coronavirus outbreaks (severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome) suggest that pulmonary fibrosis will contribute to long-term respiratory morbidity, suggesting that PASC-pulmonary fibrosis should be thoroughly screened for through pulmonary function testing and cross-sectional imaging. As data accumulates on the unique pathobiologic mechanisms underlying critical COVID-19, a focus on corollaries to the subacute and chronic profibrotic phenotype must be sought as well. Key aspects of acute COVID-19 pathobiology that may account for increased rates of pulmonary fibrosis include monocyte/macrophage–T-cell circuits, profibrotic RNA transcriptomics, protracted elevated levels of inflammatory cytokines, and duration of illness and ventilation. Mechanistic understanding of PASC-pulmonary fibrosis will be central in determining therapeutic options and will ultimately play a role in transplant considerations. Well-designed cohort studies and prospective clinical registries are needed. Clinicians, researchers and healthcare systems must actively address this complication of PASC to minimise disability, maximise quality of life and confront a post-COVID-19 global health crisis.

Mortality in rural coastal Kenya measured using the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System: a 16-year descriptive analysis

Background: The Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) was established in 2000 to define the incidence and prevalence of local diseases and evaluate the impact of community-based interventions. KHDSS morbidity data have been reported comprehensively but mortality has not been described. This analysis describes mortality in the KHDSS over 16 years. Methods: We calculated mortality rates from 2003–2018 in four intervals of equal duration and assessed differences in mortality across these intervals by age and sex. We calculated the period survival function and median survival using the Kaplan–Meier method and mean life expectancies using abridged life tables. We estimated trend and seasonality by decomposing a time series of monthly mortality rates. We used choropleth maps and random-effects Poisson regression to investigate geographical heterogeneity. Results: Mortality declined by 36% overall between 2003–2018 and by 59% in children aged <5 years. Most of the decline occurred between 2003 and 2006. Among adults, the greatest decline (49%) was observed in those aged 15–54 years. Life expectancy at birth increased by 12 years. Females outlived males by 6 years. Seasonality was only evident in the 1–4 year age group in the first four years. Geographical variation in mortality was ±10% of the median value and did not change over time. Conclusions: Between 2003 and 2018, mortality among children and young adults has improved substantially. The steep decline in 2003–2006 followed by a much slower reduction thereafter suggests improvements in health and wellbeing have plateaued in the last 12 years. However, there is substantial inequality in mortality experience by geographical location.

Analysis of allergenic pollen data, focusing on a pollen load threshold statement

Airborne allergenic pollen affects a significant part of the population and the information on pollen load is a valuable tool for public health prevention. The messages should be provided in a form easily understandable for the population. The study provides new insight for the categorisation of pollen load by defining thresholds solely from aerobiological data. Using the long-term airborne pollen data of Corylus, Alnus, Betula, Poaceae, and Artemisia have been evaluated the regionality of pollen concentrations in Lithuania. SPIn and peak values of the main pollen season highlighted as regionality indicators. The largest differences between stations were found in the cases of Corylus and Artemisia.The principle enabling a group of pollen concentrations into levels has been analysed based on retrospective aerobiological data of five pollen types. Thresholds were determined by employing the lowest peak value of the pollen season and applying the 25% principle for selected pollen types. The results were verified by performing associations of defined thresholds with retrospective morbidity data of allergic rhinitis and allergic asthma in Lithuania. Determined pollen thresholds can be used in epidemiological studies requiring associations with pollen concentration. Thresholds could also complement air quality information by integrating pollen load data into public messages or contribute to the development of mHealth systems.

Assessment of 35 Years Longitudinal Observations on Melanoma Patients in a Single Center of Hungary’s Central Region: Effect of Interferon Immunotherapy

Background: The incidence of melanoma malignum increases worldwide. Detailed objective analyses from central European region are scarcely available. Objective: To obtain validated data on melanoma distribution and retrospective analysis in the central region of Hungary based on 35 years of experience in a single center. Methods: The authors monitored the clinical course of their patients with melanoma between 1984 and 2018 based on the digitalized documentation of their institute. They analyzed the treated and non-treated cases with the leadership of a dermatologist-pathologist-oncologist. Altogether 867 cases (450 female, 417 male) were examined from the removal of the primary tumor onwards in retrospective way. Results: Distribution of gender, age, tumor stages and body regions by genders were examined. The authors also reviewed the asymptomatic period until tumor progression, morbidity data, the period and effect of the adjuvant low, intermediate and high dose interferon α-2b immunotherapy. Patients with lymph node metastasis who received low or intermediate dose immunotherapy experienced significantly longer tumor-free period than those who got high-dose immunotherapy. In both treated groups, the median value of the asymptomatic months was higher compared to the observation only” group. Conclusion: The results of their long-term follow-up contribute to the accurate evaluation of melanoma and of the interferon therapy in Hungary and in the region.

Mortality in Rural Coastal Kenya measured using the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System: A 16-year descriptive analysis

Background The Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) was established in 2000 to define the incidence and prevalence of local diseases and evaluate the impact of community-based interventions. KHDSS morbidity data have been reported comprehensively but mortality has not been described. This analysis describes mortality in the KHDSS over 16 years. Methods We calculated mortality rates from 2003-2018 in four intervals of equal duration and assessed differences in mortality across these intervals by age and sex. We calculated the period survival function and median survival using the Kaplan-Meier method and mean life expectancies using abridged life tables. We estimated trend and seasonality by decomposing a time series of monthly mortality rates. We used choropleth maps and random effects Poisson regression to investigate geographical heterogeneity. Results Mortality declined by 36% overall between 2003-2018 and by 59% in children aged <5 years. Most of the decline occurred between 2003 and 2006. Among adults, the greatest decline (49%) was observed in those aged 15-54 years. Life expectancy at birth increased by 12 years. Females outlived males by 6 years. Seasonality was only evident in the 1-4 year age group in the first four years. Geographical variation in mortality was +/-10% of the median value and did not change over time. Conclusions Between 2003-2018 mortality among children and young adults has improved substantially. The steep decline in 2003-2006 followed by a much slower reduction thereafter suggests improvements in health and wellbeing have plateaued in the last 12 years. However, there is substantial inequality in mortality experience by geographical location.

750Hospital admissions for patients with rheumatoid arthritis in Western Australia hospitals have declined over time

Background Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) imposes a considerable burden on society in terms of morbidity, long-term disability, and costs. RA prevalence is poorly described in Australia, and linked health datasets can provide a more meaningful picture for RA epidemiology in the Australian population. Methods We extracted data on all patients identified in the WA Hospital Morbidity Data Collection between 1995 and 2014, with the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for RA (ICD 10 M05.00–M06.99, and the corresponding ICD 9 codes). We estimated period prevalence rates per 1000 hospital separations and annual average percentage changes, with the total number of hospital separations each year. Results A total of 17,125 patients were admitted to WA hospitals with a diagnostic code for RA over the study period (1995-2014). The total number of hospital separations for RA patients was 50,353, indicating an average of three hospital separations per patient over twenty years. The RA prevalence was 3.4 per 1000 separations over the study period, with a -2.89% annual average decrease since 1995. Conclusion These data demonstrate that hospitalisation for RA has decreased considerably in WA over the last two decades. As this decrease roughly coincides with the introduction of biological drug treatment for RA, the reduced need for hospital admission is likely due to improvements in RA management. Key messages The RA prevalence was 3.4 per 1000 separations over the study period (1995-2014).

Incidence of Pancreatic Cancer Cases in Dr. Soedarso Hospital Pontianak

Background: Pancreatic cancer has a poor prognosis, and the symptoms are difficult to be detected early in the early stages. Indonesia Statistics on 2004–2007 states that pancreatic cancer is not included in the 10 cancers with the highest incidence. In West Kalimantan. There are no published data related to pancreatic cancer cases. This is the reason for the researchers because this data is sufficiently needed to support other studies related to pancreatic cancer.Methods: Epidemiological studies were conducted in the form of data collection at Dr. Soedarso Hospital Pontianak. Data were retrieved from cases of pancreatic cancer regression in annual Morbidity Data of Pancreatic Cancer Patients in Dr. Soedarso Hospital Pontianak from 2018 until 2009 consisting of the frequency of new cases and deaths, as well as demographic data such as age and gender of patients. Data were processed using Microsoft Excel.Results: A total of 79 cases and 9 deaths caused by pancreatic cancer were recorded in Dr. Soedarso Hospital Pontianak from January 2009 to December 2018. The highest incidence rates occurred in 2014 with 17 out of 79 cases (21.5%). As many as 63.3% of pancreatic cancer cases are dominated by men. Most cases of pancreatic cancer in patients with the age range of 45-64 years (67.1%) and the average age is 53.8 years.Conclusions: Incidence of pancreatic cancer in Dr. Soedarso Hospital Pontianak each year of 7.9 cases. Men and elderly people dominate cases of pancreatic cancer. Further study of the clinical characteristics and analysis of risk factors in patients with pancreatic cancer needs to be done to support preventive strategy development.

Modern cemented Furlong hemiarthroplasty: Are dislocations rates better?

Background Dislocation following hip hemiarthroplasty is a major complication with increased mortality and morbidity. Data looking at dislocation following contemporary bipolar stems are lacking in literature. Methods Retrospective review of our prospective national hip fracture database over a two-year period. Group 1 comprised of consecutive patients receiving bipolar Furlong prosthesis (N222) while Group 2 was made up of a historical cohort (uncemented; N254). Clinical and radiological records were reviewed to determine dislocation rates, causes and associative factors of dislocations. Data were analysed using SPSS. Results Following 476 hemiarthroplasties performed during the study period, 12 (2.5%) dislocations were reported (eight in Group 1; four in Group 2). There was no significant difference in dislocation rates (3.6% vs 1.6%) between groups ( p = 0.159). Subgroup analysis of Group 1 demonstrated a significant difference in dislocations with Furlong cemented (6%) as compared with Furlong uncemented (0%) hemiarthroplasties ( p = 0.024). Following dislocation, death rates increased to 8.3% from 1.7% in both groups. Conclusion There is a statistically significant increase in dislocation rate following use of cemented Furlong prosthesis when compared to similar uncemented prosthesis at the same treatment period. However, when compared to traditional uncemented prosthesis, there is no difference in dislocation rates.