Assessing the quantitative impact of ecosystem shifts on human societies
A wide range of ecosystems have been reported to show abrupt and drastic shifts in their states. Such shifts in ecosystem states, typically known as regime shifts, are hardly predictable and not readily reversible once they have taken place, and can have considerable impacts on human societies that are dependent on those ecosystems. Nevertheless, earlier studies have rarely quantified the consequences of ecosystem shifts for human societies, instead focusing largely on identifying the occurrence of shifts, understanding drivers and mechanisms, and developing early warning signals for forecasting. We address this knowledge gap by searching for scientific evidence on the quantitative impacts of ecosystem shifts on human societies. Based on a set of pre-defined search criteria we identified a total of 92 papers that discussed particular ecosystem shifts and associated impacts. The number of papers reporting ecosystem shifts and associated impacts has considerably increased over the past 20 years, indicating a recent rise in the interest in the issue among scientific communities. The 92 papers reported state shifts in a wide range of ecosystems, with marine ecosystem shifts reported most frequently (in 22 papers), followed by shifts in wetland (18 papers) and forest (10 papers) ecosystems. Climate change was by far the most frequently reported driver of ecosystem shifts (reported in 32 papers), followed by land use change (12 papers) and nutrient inputs (nine papers). Only 17 (18%) out of the 92 papers described the quantitative consequences of ecosystem shifts for human societies. Estimated economic consequences ranged from 5 million US dollars per year relating to eutrophication of Swedish coastal waters, to costs of 200 billion US dollars linked to macro-algal green tides along the Qingdao coast. We found that our knowledge of quantitative impacts of ecosystem shifts on human societies is still severely limited, especially in terms of risks to human health and survival and, at a broad spatial scale, where multiple ecosystem shifts could interact to exacerbate the extent or severity of their impacts.