scholarly journals Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Rodgers ◽  
Sun-Seon Lee ◽  
Nan Rosenbloom ◽  
Axel Timmermann ◽  
Gokhan Danabasoglu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
System Variables

While climate change mitigation targets necessarily concern maximum mean state changes, understanding impacts and developing adaptation strategies will be largely contingent on how climate variability responds to increasing anthropogenic perturbations. Here we present a new 100-member large ensemble of climate change projections conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 2 to examine the sensitivity of internal climate fluctuations to greenhouse warming. Our unprecedented simulations reveal that changes in variability, considered broadly in terms of probability distribution, amplitude, frequency, phasing, and patterns, are ubiquitous and span a wide range of physical and ecosystem variables across many spatial and temporal scales. Greenhouse warming will in particular alter variance spectra of Earth system variables that are characterized by non-Gaussian probability distributions, such as rainfall, primary production or fire occurrence. Our modeling results have important implications for climate adaptation efforts, resource management, and for seasonal predictions.

scholarly journals Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith B. Rodgers ◽  
Sun-Seon Lee ◽  
Nan Rosenbloom ◽  
Axel Timmermann ◽  
Gokhan Danabasoglu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
System Modeling ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Mean State

Abstract. While climate change mitigation targets necessarily concern maximum mean state change, understanding impacts and developing adaptation strategies will be largely contingent on how climate variability responds to increasing anthropogenic perturbations. Thus far Earth system modeling efforts have primarily focused on projected mean state changes and the sensitivity of specific modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. However, our knowledge of forced changes in the overall spectrum of climate variability and higher order statistics is relatively limited. Here we present a new 100-member large ensemble of climate change projections conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 2 to examine the sensitivity of internal climate fluctuations to greenhouse warming. Our unprecedented simulations reveal that changes in variability, considered broadly in terms of probability, distribution, amplitude, frequency, phasing, and patterns, are ubiquitous and span a wide range of physical and ecosystem variables across many spatial and temporal scales. Greenhouse warming will in particular alter variance spectra of Earth system variables that are characterized by non-Gaussian probability distributions, such as rainfall, primary production, or fire occurrence. Our modeling results have important implications for climate adaptation efforts, resource management, seasonal predictions, and for assessing potential stressors for terrestrial and marine ecosystems.

scholarly journals Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1393-1411
Author(s):  
Keith B. Rodgers ◽  
Sun-Seon Lee ◽  
Nan Rosenbloom ◽  
Axel Timmermann ◽  
Gokhan Danabasoglu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
System Modeling ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
State Changes ◽  
Mean State

Abstract. While climate change mitigation targets necessarily concern maximum mean state changes, understanding impacts and developing adaptation strategies will be largely contingent on how climate variability responds to increasing anthropogenic perturbations. Thus far Earth system modeling efforts have primarily focused on projected mean state changes and the sensitivity of specific modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. However, our knowledge of forced changes in the overall spectrum of climate variability and higher-order statistics is relatively limited. Here we present a new 100-member large ensemble of climate change projections conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 2 over 1850–2100 to examine the sensitivity of internal climate fluctuations to greenhouse warming. Our unprecedented simulations reveal that changes in variability, considered broadly in terms of probability distribution, amplitude, frequency, phasing, and patterns, are ubiquitous and span a wide range of physical and ecosystem variables across many spatial and temporal scales. Greenhouse warming in the model alters variance spectra of Earth system variables that are characterized by non-Gaussian probability distributions, such as rainfall, primary production, or fire occurrence. Our modeling results have important implications for climate adaptation efforts, resource management, seasonal predictions, and assessing potential stressors for terrestrial and marine ecosystems.

scholarly journals Evolution of national climate adaptation agendas in Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia: the role of national leadership and international donors

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna Pardoe ◽  
Katharine Vincent ◽  
Declan Conway ◽  
Emma Archer ◽  
Andrew J. Dougill ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
National Level ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Adaptation Planning ◽  
Critical Approach ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
National Leadership

AbstractIn this paper, we use an inductive approach and longitudinal analysis to explore political influences on the emergence and evolution of climate change adaptation policy and planning at national level, as well as the institutions within which it is embedded, for three countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia). Data collection involved quantitative and qualitative methods applied over a 6-year period from 2012 to 2017. This included a survey of 103 government staff (20 in Malawi, 29 in Tanzania and 54 in Zambia) and 242 interviews (106 in Malawi, 86 in Tanzania and 50 in Zambia) with a wide range of stakeholders, many of whom were interviewed multiple times over the study period, together with content analysis of relevant policy and programme documents. Whilst the climate adaptation agenda emerged in all three countries around 2007–2009, associated with multilateral funding initiatives, the rate and nature of progress has varied—until roughly 2015 when, for different reasons, momentum slowed. We find differences between the countries in terms of specifics of how they operated, but roles of two factors in common emerge in the evolution of the climate change adaptation agendas: national leadership and allied political priorities, and the role of additional funding provided by donors. These influences lead to changes in the policy and institutional frameworks for addressing climate change, as well as in the emphasis placed on climate change adaptation. By examining the different ways through which ideas, power and resources converge and by learning from the specific configurations in the country examples, we identify opportunities to address existing barriers to action and thus present implications that enable more effective adaptation planning in other countries. We show that more socially just and inclusive national climate adaptation planning requires a critical approach to understanding these configurations of power and politics.

scholarly journals Multiyear variations in High Arctic river temperatures in response to climate variability

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 605-623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Bolduc ◽  
Scott F. Lamoureux
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Aquatic Ecosystems ◽  
Ecosystem Health ◽  
Cold Water ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
River System ◽  
High Arctic ◽  
Small Rivers ◽  
Wide Range

Water temperature measurements (2004–2016) from two small rivers in the High Arctic were analyzed to determine the effects of climate variability on thermal regime and the sensitivity to climate change. The East and West rivers (unofficial names) drain similar watersheds (11.6 and 8.0 km2, respectively) and are located at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory (CBAWO), Melville Island, Canada (74°55′N, 109°35′W). Differences in seasonal timing of river temperatures were evident when comparing the coldest and warmest years of the study period, and across different discharge conditions. Snowmelt runoff is characterized by uniformly cold water (∼0–1 °C) over a wide range of discharge conditions, followed by warming water temperatures during flow recession. The rivers showed varying sensitivity to mid-summer air temperature conditions in a given year, with warmer years indicating high correlation (r2 = 0.794–0.929), whereas colder years showed reduced correlation (r2 = 0.368–0.778). River temperatures reached levels which are reported to negatively affect fish and other cold-water aquatic species (>18 °C) with greater frequency and duration during the warmest years. These results provide a basis to further enhance prediction of river thermal conditions to assess ecosystem health in a river system and to refine insights into the effects of climate change on High Arctic aquatic ecosystems.

scholarly journals Choosing Carbon Mitigation Strategies Using Ethical Deliberation

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Bendick ◽  
Kyla M. Dahlin ◽  
Brian V. Smoliak ◽  
Lori Kumler ◽  
Sierra J. Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Ecological Impacts ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Emission Mitigation ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions change earth’s climate by altering the planet’s radiative balance. An important first step in mitigation of climate change is to reduce annual increases in these emissions. However, the many suggested means of limiting emissions rates have led to few actual changes in policy or behavior. This disconnection can be attributed in part to the difficulty of convening groups of stakeholders with diverse values, the polarizing nature of current political systems, poor communication across disciplines, and a lack of clear, usable information about emission mitigation strategies. Here, electronically facilitated ethical deliberation, a method of determining courses of action on common goals by collaborative discussion, is used to evaluate Pacala and Socolow’s climate change stabilization strategies based on economic, technological, social, and ecological impacts across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Few previous analyses of climate mitigation strategies include all of these factors; rather, short-term technological feasibility studies and economic cost–benefit analyses predominate. After accounting for tradeoffs among disparate criteria, strategies involving end-user efficiency (e.g., efficient buildings and vehicles), wind, and solar power rank highest, while carbon capture and storage, hydrogen fuel cells, and biofuels options rank lowest. This electronically facilitated deliberation method offers an alternative to oppositional debate or cost–benefit analysis for assessing strategies where both quantitative and qualitative factors are important, information from disparate disciplines is relevant, and stakeholders are geographically dispersed.

scholarly journals Narrative as a Method for Eliciting Tacit Knowledge of Climate Variability in Bangladesh

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 669-686 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Bremer ◽  
Anne Blanchard ◽  
Nabir Mamnun ◽  
Mathew Stiller-Reeve ◽  
Md. Mahfujul Haque ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Cultural Context ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Social Process ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Knowledge Systems ◽  
Work Demands ◽  
Cultural Meanings ◽  
Narrative Methods

Abstract Climate change adaptation has increasingly come to be conceptualized as a place-based social process, in large part mediated by the local cultural context. The specificity of adaptation has called for partnerships between scientific and local communities to “co-produce” knowledge of climate variability (weather) and longer-term climate change. However, this raises numerous methodological challenges, including how to elicit the representations, knowledge, and cultural meanings of weather that are tacit to people in a community, and represent them in an explicit form that can be shared in a process of “co-production”. Such work demands careful attention to the way tightly intertwined knowledge systems continuously rebuild representations of climate in a place, and how these knowledge systems are also intertwined with values and the exercise of power. This paper takes up this challenge and explores the potential offered by theories and methods of narrative. Looking at a research project “co-producing” knowledge of weather and impacts in northeast Bangladesh, this paper describes the experience of running narrative interviews with communities there, and how these narratives were analyzed along four themes to contribute to the co-production process. These themes included 1) the weather phenomena and impacts important to local communities, 2) how weather provides meaning and identity in that place, 3) how community actors produce and share weather knowledge, and 4) the climate-related narratives pervading the community. In sharing this experience, this paper seeks to fulfil a demand for more detailed practical accounts of narrative methods in climate adaptation research, particularly for knowledge co-production.

scholarly journals The European Climate Data Explorer - a new web portal providing interactive access to climate change information for Europe 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans-Martin Füssel ◽  
Samuel Almond
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
User Needs ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Web Portal ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
European Climate ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Climate Hazards

<p>The Copernicus Climate Change Service’s (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) contains a wealth of information about the Earth's recent past, present and future climate. The CDS catalogue contains both general climate datasets, such as climate observations, seasonal forecasts, global and regional reanalyses and global and regional climate projections datasets, and in addition derived Climate Impact Indices<em> </em>(CII). CIIs are processed data which was developed to respond to specific sectoral needs. Most CII datasets were developed as part of the C3S Sectoral Information System (SIS) activities, which develops user-oriented products for various climate-sensitive sectors (e.g., water management, energy, biodiversity, human health and tourism).</p><p>The European Climate Data Explorer (ECDE) is a new web portal providing interactive access to selected climate variables and indices included in the CDS. It is hosted on the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT), a publicly accessible web portal managed by the European Environment Agency (EEA) in collaboration with the European Commission. The ECDE aims to facilitate access to a wide range of data on observed and projected climate change in Europe. Such data are relevant, among others, for developing and implementing national and subnational climate adaptation strategies and plans, including sectoral strategies.</p><p>The variables and indices currently included in the ECDE reflect user needs expressed through an EEA-led stakeholder consultation as well as data availability from C3S-led SIS contracts. The interactive access allows users to zoom in on maps in order to focus on regions of interest, show time series for specific countries and subnational regions (to NUTS level 3), and export images and data. The ECDE will be expanded further in response to user needs and increasing data availability in the CDS. This expansion will include additional sectoral indices as well as new data sources (e.g. from CMIP6).</p><p>The ECDE is complemented by the online EEA Report <em>Changing climate hazards in Europe</em> and a Technical Paper. These products provide further information on the underlying indices and datasets. The report also presents past and projected trends for key climate hazards across Europe.</p><p>The ECDE lowers the technical hurdles that limit access to CDS data for a large part of EEA’s target audience. Doing so, the ECDE supports the European Green Deal, including the new EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change, and the EU Mission on Adaptation to climate change including societal transformation.</p>

scholarly journals ORBITAL NOISE IN THE EARTH SYSTEM IS A COMMON CAUSE OF CLIMATE AND GREENHOUSE-GAS FLUCTUATION

2002 ◽  
Vol 02 (02) ◽  
pp. L101-L108 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. S. LIU ◽  
R. KOLENKIEWICZ ◽  
C. WADE
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Isotopic Data ◽  
Common Cause ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Common

The mismatch between fossil isotopic data and climate models known as the cool-tropic paradox implies that either the data are flawed or we understand very little about the climate models of greenhouse warming. Here we question the validity of the climate models on the scientific background of orbital noise in the Earth system. Our study shows that the insolation pulsation induced by orbital noise is the common cause of climate change and atmosqheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane. In addition, we find that the intensity of the insolation pulses is dependent on the latitude of the Earth. Thus, orbital noise is the key to understanding the troubling paradox in climate models.

A geospatial and temporal analytics framework for flood risk mapping

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuya Ishikawa ◽  
Takao Moriyama ◽  
Paolo Fraccaro ◽  
Anne Jones ◽  
Blair Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Calibration Model ◽  
Parameter Uncertainties ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impact Models ◽  
Node Type

<div data-node-type="line"><span>Floods have significant impact on social and economic activities</span><span>,</span> <span>with</span><span> flood </span><span>frequency projected </span><span>to increase in the future in </span><span>many regions of the world</span> <span>due to</span><span> climate change</span><span>. Quantification of current and future flood risk at lead times of months to years are potentially of high value for planning activities in a wide range of humanitarian and business applications across multiple sectors. However, there are also many technical and methodological challenges in producing accurate, local predictions which also adequately quantify uncertainty. Multiple geospatial datasets are freely available to improve flood predictions, but their size and complexity mean they are difficult to store and combine. Generation of flood inundation risk maps requires the combination of several static geospatial data layers with potentially multiple simulation models and ensembles of climate inputs.</span></div><div> </div><div data-node-type="line"></div><div data-node-type="line"><span>Here w</span><span>e present a geospatial climate impact modelling framework, which we apply to the challenge of flooding </span><span>risk quantification</span><span>.  </span><span>Our framework</span><span> is modular, scalable cloud-based </span><span>and </span><span>allows for the easy deployment of different impact models and model components with a range of input datasets (different spatial and temporal scales) and model configurations.  </span></div><div data-node-type="line"><span> </span></div><div data-node-type="line"><span>The framework allows us to use automated tools to carry out AI-enabled parameter calibration, model validation and uncertainty quantification/propagation, with the ability to quickly run the impact models for any location where the appropriate data is available.  We can additionally trial different sources of input data, pulling data from IBM PAIRS Geoscope and other sources, and we have done this with our pluvial flood models.</span></div><div> </div><div data-node-type="line"></div><div data-node-type="line"><span>In this presentation, we provide pluvial flood risk assessments </span><span>generated through</span><span> our framework. We calibrate</span><span> our</span><span> flood models to accurately reproduce inundations derived from historical precipitation datasets</span><span>, validated </span><span>against flood maps obtained from corresponding satellite imager</span><span>y,</span><span> and quantify uncertainties for hydrological parameters. Probabilistic flood risk </span><span>is</span><span> generated through ensemble execution of </span><span>such</span><span> models</span><span>,</span><span> incorporating climate change and model parameter uncertainties.</span></div>

A method for estimating vulnerability of Douglas-fir growth to climate change in the northwestern U.S.

2005 ◽  
Vol 81 (3) ◽  
pp. 369-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy S Littell ◽  
David L Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Pseudotsuga Menziesii ◽  
Douglas Fir ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Montane Forests ◽  
Growth Variability ◽  
Wide Range

Borrowing from landscape ecology, atmospheric science, and integrated assessment, we aim to understand the complex interactions that determine productivity in montane forests and utilize such relationships to forecast montane forest vulnerability under global climate change. Specifically, we identify relationships for precipitation and temperature that govern the spatiotemporal variability in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) growth by seeking similarities in patterns of growth/climate models across a significant portion of the climatological range of the species. In the 21st century and beyond, sustainable forestry will depend on successful adaptation to the impacts of climate change and climate variability on forest structure and function. The combination of these foci will allow improved prediction of the fate of montane forests over a wide range of biogeoclimatic conditions in western North America and thus allow improved management strategies for adapting to climate change. We describe a multi-disciplinary strategy for analyzing growth variability as a function of climate over a broad range of local-to-regional influences and demonstrate the efficacy of this sampling method in defining regional gradients of growth-limiting factors. Key words: Douglas-fir, Pseudotsuga menziesii, climate variability, climate impacts, mechanism-response, tree rings, growth-climate relationships

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