A geospatial and temporal analytics framework for flood risk mapping

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuya Ishikawa ◽  
Takao Moriyama ◽  
Paolo Fraccaro ◽  
Anne Jones ◽  
Blair Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Calibration Model ◽  
Parameter Uncertainties ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impact Models ◽  
Node Type

<div data-node-type="line"><span>Floods have significant impact on social and economic activities</span><span>,</span> <span>with</span><span> flood </span><span>frequency projected </span><span>to increase in the future in </span><span>many regions of the world</span> <span>due to</span><span> climate change</span><span>. Quantification of current and future flood risk at lead times of months to years are potentially of high value for planning activities in a wide range of humanitarian and business applications across multiple sectors. However, there are also many technical and methodological challenges in producing accurate, local predictions which also adequately quantify uncertainty. Multiple geospatial datasets are freely available to improve flood predictions, but their size and complexity mean they are difficult to store and combine. Generation of flood inundation risk maps requires the combination of several static geospatial data layers with potentially multiple simulation models and ensembles of climate inputs.</span></div><div> </div><div data-node-type="line"></div><div data-node-type="line"><span>Here w</span><span>e present a geospatial climate impact modelling framework, which we apply to the challenge of flooding </span><span>risk quantification</span><span>.  </span><span>Our framework</span><span> is modular, scalable cloud-based </span><span>and </span><span>allows for the easy deployment of different impact models and model components with a range of input datasets (different spatial and temporal scales) and model configurations.  </span></div><div data-node-type="line"><span> </span></div><div data-node-type="line"><span>The framework allows us to use automated tools to carry out AI-enabled parameter calibration, model validation and uncertainty quantification/propagation, with the ability to quickly run the impact models for any location where the appropriate data is available.  We can additionally trial different sources of input data, pulling data from IBM PAIRS Geoscope and other sources, and we have done this with our pluvial flood models.</span></div><div> </div><div data-node-type="line"></div><div data-node-type="line"><span>In this presentation, we provide pluvial flood risk assessments </span><span>generated through</span><span> our framework. We calibrate</span><span> our</span><span> flood models to accurately reproduce inundations derived from historical precipitation datasets</span><span>, validated </span><span>against flood maps obtained from corresponding satellite imager</span><span>y,</span><span> and quantify uncertainties for hydrological parameters. Probabilistic flood risk </span><span>is</span><span> generated through ensemble execution of </span><span>such</span><span> models</span><span>,</span><span> incorporating climate change and model parameter uncertainties.</span></div>

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

scholarly journals Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michalis I. Vousdoukas ◽  
Dimitrios Bouziotas ◽  
Alessio Giardino ◽  
Laurens M. Bouwer ◽  
Evangelos Voukouvalas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Flood ◽  
Coastal Flood Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An upscaling of flood risk assessment frameworks beyond regional and national scales has taken place during recent years, with a number of large-scale models emerging as tools for hotspot identification, support for international policy-making and harmonization of climate change adaptation strategies. There is, however, limited insight on the scaling effects and structural limitations of flood risk models and, therefore, the underlying uncertainty. In light of this, we examine key sources of epistemic uncertainty in the Coastal Flood Risk (CFR) modelling chain: (i) the inclusion and interaction of different hydraulic components leading to extreme sea-level (ESL); (ii) inundation modelling; (iii) the underlying uncertainty in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM); (iv) flood defence information; (v) the assumptions behind the use of depth-damage functions that express vulnerability; and (vi) different climate change projections. The impact of these uncertainties to estimated Expected Annual Damage (EAD) for present and future climates is evaluated in a dual case study in Faro, Portugal and in the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of the uncertainty factors varies among the different case studies, baseline CFR estimates, as well as their absolute/relative changes. We find that uncertainty from ESL contributions, and in particular the way waves are treated, can be higher than the uncertainty of the two greenhouse gas emission projections and six climate models that are used. Of comparable importance is the quality of information on coastal protection levels and DEM information. In the absence of large-extent datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy the latter two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of large-scale CFR assessment quality.

scholarly journals Analysis of Climate Change in the Area of Vojvodina-Republic of Serbia and Possible Consequences

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko Andreja Borisov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Digital Terrain ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Digital Terrain Modeling ◽  
Nature And Society ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Linear Correlations

Climate change conditions a wide range of impacts such as the impact on weather, but also on ecosystems and biodiversity, agriculture and forestry, human health, hydrological regime and energy. In addition to global warming, local factors affecting climate change are being considered. Presentation and analysis of the situation was carried out using geoinformation technologies (radar recording, remote detection, digital terrain modeling, cartographic visualization and geostatistics). This paper describes methods and use of statistical indicators such as LST, NDVI and linear correlations from which it can be concluded that accelerated construction and global warming had an impact on climate change in period from 1987 to 2018 in the area of Vojvodina – Republic of Serbia. Also, using the global SRTM DEM, it is shown how the temperature behaves based on altitude change. Conclusions and possible consequences in nature and society were derived.

scholarly journals Land–atmosphere interactions in the tropics

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Gentine ◽  
Adam Massmann ◽  
Benjamin R. Lintner ◽  
Sayed Hamed Alemohammad ◽  
Rong Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Shallow Clouds ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The continental tropics play a leading role in the terrestrial water and carbon cycles. Land–atmosphere interactions are integral in the regulation of surface energy, water and carbon fluxes across multiple spatial and temporal scales over tropical continents. We review here some of the important characteristics of tropical continental climates and how land–atmosphere interactions regulate them. Along with a wide range of climates, the tropics manifest a diverse array of land–atmosphere interactions. Broadly speaking, in tropical rainforests, light and energy are typically more limiting than precipitation and water supply for photosynthesis and evapotranspiration; whereas in savanna and semi-arid regions water is the critical regulator of surface fluxes and land–atmosphere interactions. We discuss the impact of the land surface, how it affects shallow clouds and how these clouds can feedback to the surface by modulating surface radiation. Some results from recent research suggest that shallow clouds may be especially critical to land–atmosphere interactions as these regulate the energy budget and moisture transport to the lower troposphere, which in turn affects deep convection. On the other hand, the impact of land surface conditions on deep convection appear to occur over larger, non-local, scales and might be critically affected by transitional regions between the climatologically dry and wet tropics.

scholarly journals Flight range, fuel load and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds

2018 ◽  
Vol 285 (1873) ◽  
pp. 20172329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Howard ◽  
Philip A. Stephens ◽  
Joseph A. Tobias ◽  
Catherine Sheard ◽  
Stuart H. M. Butchart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Migratory Species ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Avian Flight ◽  
Flight Range ◽  
Combine Information ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is predicted to increase migration distances for many migratory species, but the physiological and temporal implications of longer migratory journeys have not been explored. Here, we combine information about species' flight range potential and migratory refuelling requirements to simulate the number of stopovers required and the duration of current migratory journeys for 77 bird species breeding in Europe. Using tracking data, we show that our estimates accord with recorded journey times and stopovers for most species. We then combine projections of altered migratory distances under climate change with models of avian flight to predict future migratory journeys. We find that 37% of migratory journeys undertaken by long-distance migrants will necessitate an additional stopover in future. These greater distances and the increased number of stops will substantially increase overall journey durations of many long-distance migratory species, a factor not currently considered in climate impact studies.

scholarly journals Understanding the impact of climate change on inland flood risk in the UK

Weather ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 76 (10) ◽  
pp. 330-331
Author(s):  
Linda Speight ◽  
Karolina Krupska
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

NUKLEUS - User-relevant and applicable kilometer-scale climate information for Germany

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Sieck ◽  
Bente Tiedje ◽  
Hendrik Feldmann ◽  
Joaquim Pinto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Last Mile ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Impact Modelling ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impact Models

<p>Given the current developments in climate science it becomes more a more feasible to provide climate information at the kilometer-scale from convection-permitting climate simulations. This progress will enable many users to directly feed high-resolution climate information into their impact-models for climate impact studies at the local scale. Examples include urban heat stress at street level or the design of drainage systems for future precipitation extremes. Within the RegIKlim (Regional information for action on climate change) consortium, the NUKLEUS (Actionable local climate information for Germany) project will not only provide climate information at the local scale, but also to co-develop interfaces between climate and impact models, in order to fulfil the needs of the impact modelling community as good as possible. Within the RegIKlim consortium, the impact modelling community is organised in six “model regions” across Germany, which cover a wide range of geographical and socio-economic conditions.</p><p>For the NUKLEUS project, the baseline will be the latest generation of EURO-CORDEX downscaled CMIP6 simulations, which will be further refined to roughly 3 km horizontal resolution and 30-year time-slices for Germany with convection-permitting climate models (ICON CLM, COSMO-CLM, REMO-NH) and statistical-dynamical downscaling approaches. A detailed analysis on the performance of the multi-model mini-ensemble is planned to assess the quality of the provided data. At the interface to the users, we will follow three different approaches to provide usable climate information at the kilometer-scale. One is to provide easy-access to data and post-processing opportunities using the FREVA system. FREVA offers various access-levels from shell to web-based, which serves different levels of user-expertise. In addition, it provides a transparent way of post-processing data by workflow sharing mechanisms. The second one is to develop appropriate additional downscaling methods for the “last mile” where needed. For this “last mile”, we will apply dynamical and statistical methods such as urban climate models and/or weather generators. With the third approach we explicitly aim at integrating a collected user-feedback into the regional modelling systems used within NUKLEUS. Specifically, we intend to identify and incorporate data processing that is best done during the simulation permanently into the models. Examples are wind speeds at rotor heights of windmills or high frequency precipitation sums. NUKLEUS is a contribution to the German research program RegIKlim funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).</p>

Estimates of future flood risk in Western Europe and its potential impact on insured losses.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Remi Meynadier ◽  
Hugo Rakotoarimanga ◽  
Madeleine-Sophie Deroche ◽  
Sylvain Buisine
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Flood Risks ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Loss Modelling ◽  
The Impact

<p>The large-scale and complex nature of climate change makes it difficult to assess and quantify the impact on insurance activities. Climate change is likely affecting the probability of natural hazard occurrence in terms of severity and/or frequency.</p><p>Natural catastrophe risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. As a (re)-insurer it is seen that changes in year-on-year losses are a function of all these components and not just the hazard.</p><p>The present study focuses, in a first step, on assessing impacts of climate change on fluvial flood risks in Europe solely due to changes in hazard itself. A stochastic catalogue of future flood risk events is derived from Pan-European data sets of river flood probability of occurrence produced within EU FP7 RAIN project. The loss modelling framework internally developed at AXA is then used to provide a geographical view of changes in future flood risks.</p><p> </p>

Epilepsy and Stroke Emerging From Climate Change-Related Neurotoxicity

2019 ◽  
pp. 322-347
Author(s):  
Hind Benammi ◽  
Omar El Hiba ◽  
Abdelmohcine Aimrane ◽  
Nadia Zouhairi ◽  
Hicham Chatoui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heavy Metals ◽  
Nervous System ◽  
Toxic Elements ◽  
Neurological Diseases ◽  
Quality Of Water ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Shed Light

Climate change has an important impact on the environment. As it degrades the quality of water, soil, and area, it also spreads the distribution of many toxic elements, specifically heavy metals and pesticides. The impact of climate change on contamination with heavy metals and pesticides has been well investigated and discussed. The influence of these elements on human health is obviously exacerbated following their extended distribution. Moreover, a wide range of health problems have been associated to such intoxication, among which impairment and dysfunction of the nervous system are prominent. In this chapter, the authors will shed light on two most common neurological diseases such as epilepsy and stroke affecting people worldwide arising from food and water contaminations, mainly with heavy metals and pesticides.

Impact of Climate Change on Tourism

2022 ◽  
pp. 1519-1534
Author(s):  
Samreen Siddiqui ◽  
Muhammad Imran
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Industry Type ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Geographical Locations ◽  
Different Levels

Climate change is an influencing phenomenon in present global perspective having a wide range of impacts at different levels within the society and industries. This chapter introduces the climate change basics and its major impacts on the global environment. Further, it describes the tourism industry and identifies its relationship with climate change. Scientists take different approaches to deal with climate indices and their application to identify the impact of climate change on the tourism industry. This chapter classifies the tourism industry into different industry type based on the regional characteristics links with the geographical locations. Climate effects have been discussed with different case studies and regions. Then the chapter has been concluded with the major overall impact of climate change in terms of temperature rise, sea level rise (SLR), change in precipitation and extreme events in some cases, on the tourism industry, and next steps to be taken towards sustainable tourism industry.

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