scholarly journals Mathematical modeling of risk-taking in bipolar disorder: Reductions in behavioral consistency and substance use history-specific alterations to loss aversion

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carly A Lasagna ◽  
Timothy Joseph Pleskac ◽  
Cynthia Burton ◽  
Melvin G McInnis ◽  
Stephan F Taylor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Bipolar Disorder ◽  
Substance Use ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Loss Aversion ◽  
Risky Behavior ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Behavioral Consistency ◽  
Complex Disorders ◽  
Comparison Results

Bipolar disorder (BD) is associated with excessive pleasure-seeking risk-taking behaviors that often characterize its clinical presentation. However, the mechanisms of risk-taking behavior are not well-understood in BD. Recent data suggest prior substance use disorder (SUD) in BD may represent certain trait-level vulnerabilities for risky behavior. This study examined the mechanisms of risk-taking and the role of SUD in BD via mathematical modeling of behavior on the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART). Three groups—18 euthymic BD with prior SUD (BD+), 15 euthymic BD without prior SUD (BD-), and 33 healthy comparisons (HC)—completed the BART. We modeled behavior using 4 competing hierarchal Bayesian models, and model comparison results favored the Exponential-Weight Mean-Variance (EWMV) model, which encompasses and delineates five cognitive components of risk-taking: prior belief, learning rate, risk preference, loss aversion, and behavioral consistency. Both BD groups, regardless of SUD history, showed lower behavioral consistency than HC. BD+ exhibited more pessimistic prior beliefs (relative to BD- and HC) and reduced loss aversion (relative to HC) during risk-taking on the BART. Traditional measures of risk-taking on the BART (adjusted pumps, total points, total pops) detected no group differences. These findings suggest that reduced behavioral consistency is a crucial feature of risky decision-making in BD and that SUD history in BD may signal additional trait vulnerabilities for risky behavior even when mood symptoms and substance use are in remission. This study also underscores the value of using mathematical modeling to understand behavior in research on complex disorders like BD.

History of Abuse, Substance Use Problems, and Bipolar Disorder in a County Jail Setting

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwin Shirley ◽  
Lisa Stines Doane ◽  
Toyomi Goto ◽  
Norah Feeny ◽  
Sara M. Debanne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bipolar Disorder ◽  
Substance Use ◽  
County Jail ◽  
Substance Use Problems ◽  
History Of

scholarly journals Agriculture Model Comparison Framework and MyGeoHub Hosting: Case of Soil Nitrogen

Inventions ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Anupam Bhar ◽  
Benjamin Feddersen ◽  
Robert Malone ◽  
Ratnesh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Soil Nitrogen ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Test Model ◽  
Soil N ◽  
N Dynamics ◽  
Benchmark Model ◽  
C Dynamics ◽  
Comparison Results ◽  
Speed Up

To be able to compare many agricultural models, a general framework for model comparison when field data may limit direct comparison of models is proposed, developed, and also demonstrated. The framework first calibrates the benchmark model against the field data, and next it calibrates the test model against the data generated by the calibrated benchmark model. The framework is validated for the modeling of the soil nutrient nitrogen (N), a critical component in the overall agriculture system modeling effort. The nitrogen dynamics and related carbon (C) dynamics, as captured in advanced agricultural modeling such as RZWQM, are highly complex, involving numerous states (pools) and parameters. Calibrating many parameters requires more time and data to avoid underfitting. The execution time of a complex model is higher as well. A study of tradeoff among modeling complexities vs. speed-up, and the corresponding impact on modeling accuracy, is desirable. This paper surveys soil nitrogen models and lists those by their complexity in terms of the number of parameters, and C-N pools. This paper also examines a lean soil N and C dynamics model and compares it with an advanced model, RZWQM. Since nitrate and ammonia are not directly measured in this study, we first calibrate RZWQM using the available data from an experimental field in Greeley, CO, and next use the daily nitrate and ammonia data generated from RZWQM as ground truth, against which the lean model’s N dynamics parameters are calibrated. In both cases, the crop growth was removed to zero out the plant uptake, to compare only the soil N-dynamics. The comparison results showed good accuracy with a coefficient of determination (R2) match of 0.99 and 0.62 for nitrate and ammonia, respectively, while affording significant speed-up in simulation time. The lean model is also hosted in MyGeoHub cyberinfrastructure for universal online access.

scholarly journals Can Risk-Taking Be an Endophenotype for Bipolar Disorder? A Study on Patients with Bipolar Disorder Type I and Their First-Degree Relatives

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 474-482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ceren Hıdıroğlu ◽  
Özlem Demirci Esen ◽  
Zeliha Tunca ◽  
Şehnaz Neslihan Gűrz Yalçìn ◽  
Lauren Lombardo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bipolar Disorder ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Outcome Measure ◽  
Bipolar Disorders ◽  
Type I ◽  
Balloon Analogue Risk Task ◽  
First Degree Relatives ◽  
Risk Taking Behavior ◽  
Disorder Type ◽  
Core Features

AbstractRisk-taking behavior and impulsivity are core features of bipolar disorder. Whether they are part of the inherited aspect of the illness is not clear. We aimed to evaluate risk-taking behavior as a potential endophenotype for bipolar disorders, and its relationship with impulsivity and illness features. The Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) and Barratt Impulsiveness Scale-11 (BIS-11) were used to assess risk-taking behavior and impulsivity respectively in 30 euthymic bipolar I patients (BD), their 25 asymptomatic first-degree relatives (BD-R), and 30 healthy controls (HC). The primary BART outcome measure was the behavioral adjustment score (number of pumps after trials where the balloon did not pop minus the number of pumps after trials where the balloon popped). BD (p< .001) and BD-R (p= .001) had similar and significantly lower adjustment scores than HC. Only BD scored significantly higher on BIS-11 total (p= .01) and motor (p= .04) subscales than HC. Neither the BART, nor impulsivity scores associated with illness features. A limitation of this study is medicated patients and a heterogeneous BD-R were included. Riskiness may be a candidate endophenotype for bipolar disorder as it appears independently from illness features, presents similarly in BD and BD-R groups and differs from impulsivity. (JINS, 2013,19, 1–9)

Association of Bipolar and Substance Use Disorders in Parents of Adolescents With Bipolar Disorder

2007 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy E. Wilens ◽  
Joseph Biederman ◽  
Joel Adamson ◽  
Michael Monuteaux ◽  
Aude Henin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bipolar Disorder ◽  
Substance Use ◽  
Substance Use Disorders

Agreeableness and neuroticism predict being more concerned about COVID-19 and bothered by friends’ risky behavior

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Daphne Ayers ◽  
Diego Guevara Beltran ◽  
Andrew Van Horn ◽  
Lee Cronk ◽  
Hector Hurmuz-Sklias ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Risky Behavior ◽  
Risky Behaviors ◽  
Reduce Risk

Given the importance of friendships during challenging times and the mixed associations reported between personality traits and disease-related behaviors, we investigated the influence of personality traits on friendships during the COVID-19 pandemic and how both influenced risky behaviors. In November 2020, we asked participants about their reactions to friends’ behavior as part of a larger study. We found that agreeableness and neuroticism predicted participants being more concerned about COVID-19 and bothered by friends’ risky behavior, and extraversion predicted enjoying helping friends during the pandemic. Our results suggest that personality influences how individuals cope with their friends’ risky behaviors. This work could be relevant for developing interventions to reduce risk taking during the pandemic, such as using friendships to reinforce adherence to public health guidelines.

scholarly journals The seven sisters DANCe

2018 ◽  
Vol 612 ◽  
pp. A70 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Olivares ◽  
E. Moraux ◽  
L. M. Sarro ◽  
H. Bouy ◽  
A. Berihuete ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Precise Determination ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Adequate Model ◽  
Comparison Results ◽  
Bayesian Evidence ◽  
Mass Segregation

Context. Membership analyses of the DANCe and Tycho + DANCe data sets provide the largest and least contaminated sample of Pleiades candidate members to date. Aims. We aim at reassessing the different proposals for the number surface density of the Pleiades in the light of the new and most complete list of candidate members, and inferring the parameters of the most adequate model. Methods. We compute the Bayesian evidence and Bayes Factors for variations of the classical radial models. These include elliptical symmetry, and luminosity segregation. As a by-product of the model comparison, we obtain posterior distributions for each set of model parameters. Results. We find that the model comparison results depend on the spatial extent of the region used for the analysis. For a circle of 11.5 parsecs around the cluster centre (the most homogeneous and complete region), we find no compelling reason to abandon King’s model, although the Generalised King model introduced here has slightly better fitting properties. Furthermore, we find strong evidence against radially symmetric models when compared to the elliptic extensions. Finally, we find that including mass segregation in the form of luminosity segregation in the J band is strongly supported in all our models. Conclusions. We have put the question of the projected spatial distribution of the Pleiades cluster on a solid probabilistic framework, and inferred its properties using the most exhaustive and least contaminated list of Pleiades candidate members available to date. Our results suggest however that this sample may still lack about 20% of the expected number of cluster members. Therefore, this study should be revised when the completeness and homogeneity of the data can be extended beyond the 11.5 parsecs limit. Such a study will allow for more precise determination of the Pleiades spatial distribution, its tidal radius, ellipticity, number of objects and total mass.

scholarly journals Functional and Mood Outcomes in Bipolar Disorder Patients With and Without Substance Use Disorders Undergoing Psychotherapy

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Moot ◽  
Marie Crowe ◽  
Maree Inder ◽  
Kate Eggleston ◽  
Christopher Frampton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bipolar Disorder ◽  
Substance Use ◽  
Social Adjustment ◽  
Functional Outcomes ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Adjunctive Treatment ◽  
Life Score ◽  
The Social ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Social Rhythm

Objectives: Research suggests that patients with co-morbid bipolar disorder (BD) and substance use disorder (SUD) have a poorer illness course and clinical outcome. The evidence is limited as SUD patients are often excluded from BD studies. In particular, evidence regarding long term outcomes from studies using psychotherapies as an adjunctive treatment is limited. We therefore examined data from two studies of Interpersonal Social Rhythm Therapy (IPSRT) for BD to determine whether lifetime or current SUD affected outcomes.Methods: Data were analyzed from two previous clinical trials of IPSRT for BD patients. Change in scores on the Social Adjustment Scale (SAS) from 0 to 78 weeks and cumulative mood scores from 0 to 78 weeks, measured using the Life Interval Follow-Up Evaluation (LIFE), were analyzed.Results: Of 122 patients (non-SUD n = 67, lifetime SUD but no current n = 43, current SUD n = 12), 79 received IPSRT and 43 received a comparison therapy—specialist supportive care—over 18 months. Lifetime SUD had a significant negative effect on change in SAS score but not LIFE score. There was no effect of current SUD on either change in score. Secondary analysis showed no correlation between symptom count and change in SAS total score or LIFE score.Conclusion: Current SUD has no impact on mood or functional outcomes, however, current SUD numbers were small, limiting conclusions. Lifetime SUD appears to be associated with impaired functional outcomes from psychotherapy. There is limited research on co-morbid BD and SUD patients undergoing psychotherapy.

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