Causal judgment in the wild: evidence from the 2020 US presidential election

Mapping Intimacies ◽

10.31234/osf.io/7w9re ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Tadeg Quillien ◽

Michael Barlev

Keyword(s):

Real World ◽

Effect Size ◽

Presidential Election ◽

Laboratory Experiments ◽

Causal Effect ◽

Causal Judgment ◽

Average Causal Effect ◽

In The Wild ◽

Us Presidential Election ◽

Election Victory

A given event has many causes, but people intuitively view some causes as more important than others. Models of causal judgment have been evaluated in controlled laboratory experiments, but they have yet to be tested in complex real-world settings. Here, we provide such a test, in the context of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Across tens of thousands of simulations of possible election outcomes, we computed, for each state, an adjusted measure of the correlation between a Biden victory in that state and a Biden election victory. These effect size measures accurately predicted the extent to which U.S. participants (N=207, pre-registered) viewed victory in a given state as having caused Biden to win the presidency. This supports the theory that people intuitively select as causes of an outcome the factors with the largest average causal effect on that outcome across possible counterfactual worlds.

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US policy will threaten the Iran nuclear deal

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db216402 ◽

2016 ◽

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

Commercial Aircraft ◽

Donald Trump ◽

Content Type ◽

The Us ◽

Us Presidential Election ◽

Political Symbol ◽

Election Victory ◽

European Investment

Significance Although the extension is not a formal violation, it reflects rising tensions over the July 2015 deal. The US presidential election victory of Donald Trump has raised questions over its future. Trump dislikes the agreement, as do hardliners in Iran, and it is no longer likely to be implemented as originally planned. Impacts Aggressive US sanctions would deter European investment, creating opportunities for Asian investors. In the absence of a strong conservative candidate, a May 2017 election victory for President Hassan Rouhani is still probable. Washington’s likely scuppering of the sale of commercial aircraft could be a powerful political symbol for Iranian hardliners.

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Pepe the Frog: A Case Study of the Internet Meme and its Potential Subversive Power to Challenge Cultural Hegemonies

10.31237/osf.io/epxr9 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Ben Pettis

Keyword(s):

Real World ◽

Presidential Election ◽

The Internet ◽

Power Structures ◽

Dominant Culture ◽

Us Presidential Election ◽

The Difference ◽

Mainstream Culture ◽

And Control

This thesis examines Internet memes, a unique medium that has the capability to easily and seamlessly transfer ideologies between groups. It argues that these media can potentially enable subcultures to challenge, and possibly overthrow, hegemonic power structures that maintain the dominance of a mainstream culture. I trace the meme from its creation by Matt Furie in 2005 to its appearance in the 2016 US Presidential Election and examine how its meaning has changed throughout its history. I define the difference between a meme instance and the meme as a whole, and conclude that the meaning of the overall meme is formed by the sum of its numerous meme instances. This structure is unique to the medium of Internet memes and is what enables subcultures to use them to easily transfer ideologies in order to challenge the hegemony of dominant cultures.Dick Hebdige provides a model by which a dominant culture can reclaim the images and symbols used by a subculture through the process of commodification. Using the Pepe the Frog meme as a case study, I argue that Hebdige’s commodification model does not apply to Internet memes, because traditional concepts of ownership and control affect Internet memes differently. As such, the medium enables subcultures to claim and redefine an image to challenge a dominant culture. Unlike with other forms of media, it is difficult for the dominant culture to exert its power or control over Internet memes. Internet memes, therefore, have significant real-world implications and potential to empower subcultures.

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Estimating the Magnitude of the Relation Between Bullying, E-Bullying, and Suicidal Behaviors Among United States Youth, 2015

Crisis ◽

10.1027/0227-5910/a000544 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 40 (3) ◽

pp. 157-165 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Kevin S. Kuehn ◽

Annelise Wagner ◽

Jennifer Velloza

Keyword(s):

Adolescent Suicide ◽

Suicide Attempts ◽

Causal Effect ◽

Strong Association ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Average Causal Effect ◽

Effects Of Bullying ◽

Pc Algorithm ◽

Nationally Representative ◽

Significant Covariates

Abstract. Background: Suicide is the second leading cause of death among US adolescents aged 12–19 years. Researchers would benefit from a better understanding of the direct effects of bullying and e-bullying on adolescent suicide to inform intervention work. Aims: To explore the direct and indirect effects of bullying and e-bullying on adolescent suicide attempts (SAs) and to estimate the magnitude of these effects controlling for significant covariates. Method: This study uses data from the 2015 Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey (YRBS), a nationally representative sample of US high school youth. We quantified the association between bullying and the likelihood of SA, after adjusting for covariates (i.e., sexual orientation, obesity, sleep, etc.) identified with the PC algorithm. Results: Bullying and e-bullying were significantly associated with SA in logistic regression analyses. Bullying had an estimated average causal effect (ACE) of 2.46%, while e-bullying had an ACE of 4.16%. Limitations: Data are cross-sectional and temporal precedence is not known. Conclusion: These findings highlight the strong association between bullying, e-bullying, and SA.

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Post-randomization Biomarker Effect Modification Analysis in an HIV Vaccine Clinical Trial

Journal of Causal Inference ◽

10.1515/jci-2019-0022 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 54-69

Author(s):

Peter B. Gilbert ◽

Bryan S. Blette ◽

Bryan E. Shepherd ◽

Michael G. Hudgens

Keyword(s):

Causal Effect ◽

Effect Modification ◽

Hiv Vaccine ◽

Strongly Correlated ◽

Principal Stratification ◽

Response Variable ◽

Average Causal Effect ◽

Intermediate Response ◽

Structural Risk ◽

Augmented Design

AbstractWhile the HVTN 505 trial showed no overall efficacy of the tested vaccine to prevent HIV infection over placebo, markers measuring immune response to vaccination were strongly correlated with infection. This finding generated the hypothesis that some marker-defined vaccinated subgroups were partially protected whereas others had their risk increased. This hypothesis can be assessed using the principal stratification framework (Frangakis and Rubin, 2002) for studying treatment effect modification by an intermediate response variable, using methods in the sub-field of principal surrogate (PS) analysis that studies multiple principal strata. Unfortunately, available methods for PS analysis require an augmented study design not available in HVTN 505, and make untestable structural risk assumptions, motivating a need for more robust PS methods. Fortunately, another sub-field of principal stratification, survivor average causal effect (SACE) analysis (Rubin, 2006) – which studies effects in a single principal stratum – provides many methods not requiring an augmented design and making fewer assumptions. We show how, for a binary intermediate response variable, methods developed for SACE analysis can be adapted to PS analysis, providing new and more robust PS methods. Application to HVTN 505 supports that the vaccine partially protected individuals with vaccine-induced T-cells expressing certain combinations of functions.

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Improving the External Validity of Conjoint Analysis: The Essential Role of Profile Distribution

Political Analysis ◽

10.1017/pan.2020.40 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-27 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Brandon de la Cuesta ◽

Naoki Egami ◽

Kosuke Imai

Keyword(s):

Conjoint Analysis ◽

Real World ◽

External Validity ◽

Causal Effect ◽

The Other ◽

Estimation Methods ◽

Social Scientists ◽

Actual Distribution ◽

Open Source Software Package ◽

Profile Distribution

Abstract Conjoint analysis has become popular among social scientists for measuring multidimensional preferences. When analyzing such experiments, researchers often focus on the average marginal component effect (AMCE), which represents the causal effect of a single profile attribute while averaging over the remaining attributes. What has been overlooked, however, is the fact that the AMCE critically relies upon the distribution of the other attributes used for the averaging. Although most experiments employ the uniform distribution, which equally weights each profile, both the actual distribution of profiles in the real world and the distribution of theoretical interest are often far from uniform. This mismatch can severely compromise the external validity of conjoint analysis. We empirically demonstrate that estimates of the AMCE can be substantially different when averaging over the target profile distribution instead of uniform. We propose new experimental designs and estimation methods that incorporate substantive knowledge about the profile distribution. We illustrate our methodology through two empirical applications, one using a real-world distribution and the other based on a counterfactual distribution motivated by a theoretical consideration. The proposed methodology is implemented through an open-source software package.

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Identity propaganda: Racial narratives and disinformation

New Media & Society ◽

10.1177/14614448211029293 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 146144482110292

Author(s):

Madhavi Reddi ◽

Rachel Kuo ◽

Daniel Kreiss

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

Power Relations ◽

Vice President ◽

Power Structures ◽

Marginalized Groups ◽

Identity Based ◽

Us Presidential Election ◽

Social Orders ◽

Racial Narratives

This article develops the concept of “identity propaganda,” or narratives that strategically target and exploit identity-based differences in accord with pre-existing power structures to maintain hegemonic social orders. In proposing and developing the concept of identity propaganda, we especially aim to help researchers find new insights into their data on misinformation, disinformation, and propaganda by outlining a framework for unpacking layers of historical power relations embedded in the content they analyze. We focus on three forms of identity propaganda: othering narratives that alienate and marginalize non-white or non-dominant groups; essentializing narratives that create generalizing tropes of marginalized groups; and authenticating narratives that call upon people to prove or undermine their claims to be part of certain groups. We demonstrate the utility of this framework through our analysis of identity propaganda around Vice President Kamala Harris during the 2020 US presidential election.

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Strengthening the EU’s resilience to hybrid threats

European View ◽

10.1177/17816858211004648 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 178168582110046

Author(s):

Sandra Kalniete ◽

Tomass Pildegovičs

Keyword(s):

Case Studies ◽

Presidential Election ◽

Turning Point ◽

Hybrid Methods ◽

Cyber Attacks ◽

Political Will ◽

Member States ◽

Eu Member States ◽

Us Presidential Election ◽

Hybrid Threats

Against the backdrop of the deterioration of EU–Russia relations in recent years, there has been a shift in the awareness of hybrid threats all across the Union. At the same time, there is evidence of a growing political will to strengthen resilience to these threats. While hostile foreign actors have long deployed hybrid methods to target Europe, Russia’s intervention in Ukraine in 2014, interference in the 2016 US presidential election, and repeated cyber-attacks and disinformation campaigns aimed at EU member states have marked a turning point, exposing Western countries’ unpreparedness and vulnerability to these threats. This article analyses the EU’s resilience to hybrid warfare from institutional, regulatory and societal perspectives, with a particular focus on the information space. By drawing on case studies from member states historically at the forefront of resisting and countering Russian-backed disinformation campaigns, this article outlines the case for a whole-of-society approach to countering hybrid threats and underscores the need for EU leadership in a standard-setting capacity.

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Obama's Reelection Prospects under “Bread and Peace” Voting in the 2012 US Presidential Election

Political Science and Politics ◽

10.1017/s1049096512000911 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 45 (04) ◽

pp. 635-639 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Douglas A. Hibbs

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

Presidential Elections ◽

Weighted Average ◽

Armed Forces ◽

Average Growth ◽

Us Military ◽

Us Presidential Election ◽

Per Capita ◽

Objectively Measured ◽

Foreign Wars

According to the Bread and Peace Model postwar, American presidential elections should be interpreted as a sequence of referendums on the incumbent party's record during its four-year mandate period. In fact postwar aggregate votes for president are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable personal income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities due to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign wars. No other outside variable systematically affects postwar aggregate votes for president.

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