scholarly journals Variable and sub-optimal responses to a choice problem are a persistent default mode

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amelia R. Hunt ◽  
Warren James ◽  
Josephine Reuther ◽  
Melissa Spilioti ◽  
Eleanor Mackay ◽  
...  

Here we report persistent choice variability in the presence of a simple decision rule. Two analogous choice problems are presented, both of which involve making decisions about how to prioritize goals. In one version, participants choose a place to stand to throw a beanbag into one of two hoops. In the other, they must choose a place to fixate to detect a target that could appear in one of two boxes. In both cases, participants do not know which of the locations will be the target when they make their choice. The optimal solution to both problems follows the same, simple logic: when targets are close together, standing at/fixating the midpoint is the best choice. When the targets are far apart, accuracy from the midpoint falls, and standing/fixating close to one potential target achieves better accuracy. People do not follow, or even approach, this optimal strategy, despite substantial potential benefits for performance. Two interventions were introduced to try and shift participants from sub-optimal, variable responses to following a fixed, rational rule. First, we put participants into circumstances in which the solution was obvious. After participants correctly solved the problem there, we immediately presented the slightly-less-obvious context. Second, we guided participants to make choices that followed an optimal strategy, and then removed the guidance and let them freely choose. Following both of these interventions, participants immediately returned to a variable, sub-optimal pattern of responding. The results show that while constructing and implementing rational decision rules is possible, making variable responses to choice problems is a strong and persistent default mode. Borrowing concepts from classic animal learning studies, we suggest this default may persist because choice variability can provide opportunities for reinforcement learning.

2021 ◽  
Vol 257 ◽  
pp. 02019
Author(s):  
Sijia Liu ◽  
Yanting Huang

According to an e-commerce closed-loop supply chain dominated by manufacturers, which is composed of manufacturers and e-commerce platforms, divided into three different recovery mode: manufacturers recycling mode alone, electric business platform recycling mode alone, and manufacturers and electric business platform mixed mode, using the game theory to solve, compares three closed-loop supply chains found: (1)When the recycling price sensitivity is high, the optimal strategy of the manufacturer is the manufacturers recycling mode alone; when the price sensitivity of recycling is low, the manufacturer’s best strategy is the independent recycling mode of the e-commerce platform. No matter how sensitive the recycling price is, the profits of the manufacturer under the mixed recycling mode are always lower than those under the other two recycling modes. (2) When the recycling price sensitivity is high, the optimal strategy of the electric business platform is the mixed recycling mode; when the price sensitivity of recycling is low, the optimal solution of the electric business platform is the independent recycling mode of the electric business platform. (3) When the recovery price sensitivity is low, the best strategy of both is the separate recycling mode of the electric business platform.


Author(s):  
Alexander D. Bekman ◽  
Sergey V. Stepanov ◽  
Alexander A. Ruchkin ◽  
Dmitry V. Zelenin

The quantitative evaluation of producer and injector well interference based on well operation data (profiles of flow rates/injectivities and bottomhole/reservoir pressures) with the help of CRM (Capacitance-Resistive Models) is an optimization problem with large set of variables and constraints. The analytical solution cannot be found because of the complex form of the objective function for this problem. Attempts to find the solution with stochastic algorithms take unacceptable time and the result may be far from the optimal solution. Besides, the use of universal (commercial) optimizers hides the details of step by step solution from the user, for example&nbsp;— the ambiguity of the solution as the result of data inaccuracy.<br> The present article concerns two variants of CRM problem. The authors present a new algorithm of solving the problems with the help of “General Quadratic Programming Algorithm”. The main advantage of the new algorithm is the greater performance in comparison with the other known algorithms. Its other advantage is the possibility of an ambiguity analysis. This article studies the conditions which guarantee that the first variant of problem has a unique solution, which can be found with the presented algorithm. Another algorithm for finding the approximate solution for the second variant of the problem is also considered. The method of visualization of approximate solutions set is presented. The results of experiments comparing the new algorithm with some previously known are given.


2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 285-295
Author(s):  
Chen Ling ◽  
Yuanhui Zhang ◽  
Jun Li ◽  
Wenli Chen ◽  
Changquan Ling

Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) has been practiced in China for thousands of years. As a complementary and alternative treatment, herbal medicines that are frequently used in the TCM are the most accepted in the Western world. However, animal materials, which are equally important in the TCM practice, are not well-known in other countries. On the other hand, the Chinese doctors had documented the toxic profiles of hundreds of animals and plants thousand years ago. Furthermore, they saw the potential benefits of these materials and used their toxic properties to treat a wide variety of diseases, such as heavy pain and cancer. Since the 50s of the last century, efforts of the Chinese government and societies to modernize TCM have achieved tremendous scientific results in both laboratory and clinic. A number of toxic proteins have been isolated and their functions identified. Although most of the literature was written in Chinese, this review provide a summary, in English, regarding our knowledge of the clinical use of the toxic proteins isolated from a plant, Tian Hua Fen, and an animal, scorpion, both of which are famous toxic prescriptions in TCM.


2021 ◽  
pp. 003232172110184
Author(s):  
Ben Cross

In this article, I aim to bring apocalypticism and radical realism into conversation, with a view to their mutual interest in prefigurative politics. On one hand, radical realists may worry that an apocalyptic approach to prefigurative politics may be marred by wishful thinking. On the other hand, radical realists can (and sometimes do) acknowledge that wishful thinking is sometimes desirable. I argue that an apocalyptic approach to prefigurative politics suggests one way of guarding against the dangers of wishful thinking, while allowing space for its potential benefits; prefigurativists have reason to pay at least some attention to what Bernard Williams calls ‘The First Political Question’. I will argue for this claim with reference to the case of Omar Aziz, a Syrian activist who played a pivotal role in the construction of local councils in the aftermath of the 2011 protests.


Author(s):  
M. John Plodinec

Abstract Over the last decade, communities have become increasingly aware of the risks they face. They are threatened by natural disasters, which may be exacerbated by climate change and the movement of land masses. Growing globalization has made a pandemic due to the rapid spread of highly infectious diseases ever more likely. Societal discord breeds its own threats, not the least of which is the spread of radical ideologies giving rise to terrorism. The accelerating rate of technological change has bred its own social and economic risks. This widening spectrum of risk poses a difficult question to every community – how resilient will the community be to the extreme events it faces. In this paper, we present a new approach to answering that question. It is based on the stress testing of financial institutions required by regulators in the United States and elsewhere. It generalizes stress testing by expanding the concept of “capital” beyond finance to include the other “capitals” (e.g., human, social) possessed by a community. Through use of this approach, communities can determine which investments of its capitals are most likely to improve its resilience. We provide an example of using the approach, and discuss its potential benefits.


Author(s):  
Caitlin Geier ◽  
Robyn B. Adams ◽  
Katharine M. Mitchell ◽  
Bree E. Holtz

Informed consent is an important part of the research process; however, some participants either do not read or skim the consent form. When participants do not read or comprehend informed consent, then they may not understand the potential benefits, risks, or details of the study before participating. This study used previous research to develop experimentally manipulated online consent forms utilizing various presentations of the consent form and interactive elements. Participants ( n = 576) were randomly exposed to one of six form variations. Results found that the highly interactive condition was significantly better for comprehension than any of the other conditions. The highly interactive condition also performed better for readability, though not significantly. Further research should explore the effects of interactive elements to combat habituation and to engage participants with the parts of the consent form unique to the study.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 6182
Author(s):  
Marijana Pantić ◽  
Saša Milijić

An agreement of cooperation and transmission of knowledge regarding the nomination for the European Green Capital Award (EGCA) was signed between the mayors of Belgrade and Ljubljana (EGCA 2016 winner) in September 2018. The candidacy of Belgrade was finally realized in October 2019. Great hope was placed in this endeavour because internationally recognized awards, such as the EGCA, represent enormous capital for both the city and the state. The EGCA requires serious preparation and significant fulfilment of preconditions. Many economically strong and environmentally responsible cities competed for the award, but did not win. On the other hand, the capital of Serbia does not appear to be an obvious winning candidate, especially as it is differentiated from the previous winners by being a non-EU city and by the fact that it is still undergoing an intense urban transformation, characteristic of transitional countries. Therefore, the main aim of this article is to present a review of the current state of Belgrade’s environmental qualities and its comparison with the EGCA criteria and with Grenoble as one of the winning competitors. The article gives a full overview of the EGCA requirements with certain details on required indicators, gives relevant insight into the procedure, which could be of use for any future candidacy, and discusses potential benefits for winners, losers and repeat candidacies.


2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 307-317
Author(s):  
Pham Hoang Anh

In this paper, the optimal sizing of truss structures is solved using a novel evolutionary-based optimization algorithm. The efficiency of the proposed method lies in the combination of global search and local search, in which the global move is applied for a set of random solutions whereas the local move is performed on the other solutions in the search population. Three truss sizing benchmark problems with discrete variables are used to examine the performance of the proposed algorithm. Objective functions of the optimization problems are minimum weights of the whole truss structures and constraints are stress in members and displacement at nodes. Here, the constraints and objective function are treated separately so that both function and constraint evaluations can be saved. The results show that the new algorithm can find optimal solution effectively and it is competitive with some recent metaheuristic algorithms in terms of number of structural analyses required.


Author(s):  
Shufen Qin ◽  
Chan Li ◽  
Chaoli Sun ◽  
Guochen Zhang ◽  
Xiaobo Li

AbstractSurrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithms have been paid more and more attention to solve computationally expensive problems. However, model management still plays a significant importance in searching for the optimal solution. In this paper, a new method is proposed to measure the approximation uncertainty, in which the differences between the solution and its neighbour samples in the decision space, and the ruggedness of the objective space in its neighborhood are both considered. The proposed approximation uncertainty will be utilized in the surrogate-assisted global search to find a solution for exact objective evaluation to improve the exploration capability of the global search. On the other hand, the approximated fitness value is adopted as the infill criterion for the surrogate-assisted local search, which is utilized to improve the exploitation capability to find a solution close to the real optimal solution as much as possible. The surrogate-assisted global and local searches are conducted in sequence at each generation to balance the exploration and exploitation capabilities of the method. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated on seven benchmark problems with 10, 20, 30 and 50 dimensions, and one real-world application with 30 and 50 dimensions. The experimental results show that the proposed method is efficient for solving the low- and medium-dimensional expensive optimization problems by compared to the other six state-of-the-art surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithms.


Agro Ekonomi ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Emy Rahmawaty ◽  
Dibyo Prabowo ◽  
Slamet Hartono ◽  
Ismet Ahmad

The objective of this research is to analyses the allocation of farmer household resources in tidal swamp area. The survey method was used to collect farmer data located in tidal swamps land villages with acid sulphate land, peatyland,. and potential land typologies in South Kalimantan. Quantitative analysis of data was carried out using linear programming model and sensitivity analysis, utilizing the BLPX 88 program.The findings of the analysis showed that villages allocated resources differently with the implication that incomes earned by the villages differed from one village to the other. However, it was found out too that optimal solution showed the need for the continuation of rice growing in the areas. Farmers who were located in potential areas where tangerine were grown produce higher incomes than the other two villages. To replicate the cropping pattern farmers in potential land in acid sulphate land and peatyland, resulted into a drastic increase in income earned by farmers


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