scholarly journals Identifying the Most Important Predictors of Sexual Satisfaction using Interpretable Machine Learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Marika Vowels ◽  
Matthew J Vowels ◽  
Kristen P Mark

Previous studies have found a number of different factors that are associated with sexual satisfaction but have been unable to estimate the relative importance of each predictor. We used a machine learning algorithm, random forest (a type of interpretable highly non-linear decision tree), to predict sexual satisfaction across two samples (total N = 1846; includes 754 individuals forming 377 couples). We also used a game theoretic interpretation technique, which allowed us to estimate the size and direction of the effect of each predictor variable on the model outcome. The present study showed that sexual satisfaction is highly predictable (48-62% of variance explained) with relationship variables (relationship satisfaction, perception of love and sex, romantic love, dyadic desire) explaining the most variance in sexual satisfaction. The study enables researchers, policy-makers, and practitioners to target variables that are the most likely to improve sexual satisfaction in order to better people’s sexual lives.

2022 ◽  
pp. 026540752110470
Author(s):  
Laura M. Vowels ◽  
Matthew J. Vowels ◽  
Kristen P. Mark

Sexual satisfaction has been robustly associated with relationship and individual well-being. Previous studies have found several individual (e.g., gender, self-esteem, and attachment) and relational (e.g., relationship satisfaction, relationship length, and sexual desire) factors that predict sexual satisfaction. The aim of the present study was to identify which variables are the strongest, and the least strong, predictors of sexual satisfaction using modern machine learning. Previous research has relied primarily on traditional statistical models which are limited in their ability to estimate a large number of predictors, non-linear associations, and complex interactions. Through a machine learning algorithm, random forest (a potentially more flexible extension of decision trees), we predicted sexual satisfaction across two samples (total N = 1846; includes 754 individuals forming 377 couples). We also used a game theoretic interpretation technique, Shapley values, which allowed us to estimate the size and direction of the effect of each predictor variable on the model outcome. Findings showed that sexual satisfaction is highly predictable (48–62% of variance explained) with relationship variables (relationship satisfaction, importance of sex in relationship, romantic love, and dyadic desire) explaining the most variance in sexual satisfaction. The study highlighted important factors to focus on in future research and interventions.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Marika Vowels ◽  
Matthew J Vowels ◽  
Kristen P Mark

Infidelity is a common occurrence in relationships and can have a devastating impact on both partners’ well-being. A large body of literature have attempted to factors that can explain or predict infidelity but have been unable to estimate the relative importance of each predictor. We used a machine learning algorithm, random forest (a type of interpretable highly non-linear decision tree), to predict in-person and online infidelity and intentions toward future infidelity across three samples (two dyadic samples; N = 1846). We also used a game theoretic explanation technique, Shapley values, which allowed us to estimate the effect size of each predictor variable on infidelity. The present study showed that infidelity was somewhat predictable overall with interpersonal factors (relationship satisfaction, love, desire, relationship length) being the most predictive. The results suggest that addressing relationship difficulties early in the relationship can help prevent future infidelity.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Marika Vowels ◽  
Matthew J Vowels ◽  
Kristen P Mark

Previous studies have found a number of individual, relational, and societal factors that are associated with sexual desire. However, no studies to date have examined which of these variables are the most predictive of sexual desire. We used a machine learning algorithm, random forest (a type of interpretable highly non-linear decision tree), to predict sexual desire from a large number of predictors across two samples (N = 1846; includes 754 individuals forming 377 couples). We also used a Shapley value technique to estimate the size and direction of the effect of each predictor variable on the model outcome. The model predicted around 40% of variance in dyadic and solitary desire with women’s desire being more predictable than men’s. Several variables consistently predicted sexual desire including individual, relational, and societal factors. The study provides the strongest evidence to date of the most important predictors for dyadic and solitary desire.


2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
F Ghanbari ◽  
T Joyce ◽  
S Kozerke ◽  
AI Guaricci ◽  
PG Masci ◽  
...  

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): J. Schwitter receives research support by “ Bayer Schweiz AG “. C.N.C. received grant by Siemens. Gianluca Pontone received institutional fees by General Electric, Bracco, Heartflow, Medtronic, and Bayer. U.J.S received grand by Astellas, Bayer, General Electric. This work was supported by Italian Ministry of Health, Rome, Italy (RC 2017 R659/17-CCM698). This work was supported by Gyrotools, Zurich, Switzerland. Background  Late Gadolinium enhancement (LGE) scar quantification is generally recognized as an accurate and reproducible technique, but it is observer-dependent and time consuming. Machine learning (ML) potentially offers to solve this problem.  Purpose  to develop and validate a ML-algorithm to allow for scar quantification thereby fully avoiding observer variability, and to apply this algorithm to the prospective international multicentre Derivate cohort. Method  The Derivate Registry collected heart failure patients with LV ejection fraction <50% in 20 European and US centres. In the post-myocardial infarction patients (n = 689) quality of the LGE short-axis breath-hold images was determined (good, acceptable, sufficient, borderline, poor, excluded) and ground truth (GT) was produced (endo-epicardial contours, 2 remote reference regions, artefact elimination) to determine mass of non-infarcted myocardium and of dense (≥5SD above mean-remote) and non-dense scar (>2SD to <5SD above mean-remote). Data were divided into the learning (total n = 573; training: n = 289; testing: n = 284) and validation set (n = 116). A Ternaus-network (loss function = average of dice and binary-cross-entropy) produced 4 outputs (initial prediction, test time augmentation (TTA), threshold-based prediction (TB), and TTA + TB) representing normal myocardium, non-dense, and dense scar (Figure 1).Outputs were evaluated by dice metrics, Bland-Altman, and correlations.  Results  In the validation and test data sets, both not used for training, the dense scar GT was 20.8 ± 9.6% and 21.9 ± 13.3% of LV mass, respectively. The TTA-network yielded the best results with small biases vs GT (-2.2 ± 6.1%, p < 0.02; -1.7 ± 6.0%, p < 0.003, respectively) and 95%CI vs GT in the range of inter-human comparisons, i.e. TTA yielded SD of the differences vs GT in the validation and test data of 6.1 and 6.0 percentage points (%p), respectively (Fig 2), which was comparable to the 7.7%p for the inter-observer comparison (n = 40). For non-dense scar, TTA performance was similar with small biases (-1.9 ± 8.6%, p < 0.0005, -1.4 ± 8.2%, p < 0.0001, in the validation and test sets, respectively, GT 39.2 ± 13.8% and 42.1 ± 14.2%) and acceptable 95%CI with SD of the differences of 8.6 and 8.2%p for TTA vs GT, respectively, and 9.3%p for inter-observer.  Conclusions  In the large Derivate cohort from 20 centres, performance of the presented ML-algorithm to quantify dense and non-dense scar fully automatically is comparable to that of experienced humans with small bias and acceptable 95%-CI. Such a tool could facilitate scar quantification in clinical routine as it eliminates human observer variability and can handle large data sets.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 11227
Author(s):  
Arnold Kamis ◽  
Yudan Ding ◽  
Zhenzhen Qu ◽  
Chenchen Zhang

The purpose of this paper is to model the cases of COVID-19 in the United States from 13 March 2020 to 31 May 2020. Our novel contribution is that we have obtained highly accurate models focused on two different regimes, lockdown and reopen, modeling each regime separately. The predictor variables include aggregated individual movement as well as state population density, health rank, climate temperature, and political color. We apply a variety of machine learning methods to each regime: Multiple Regression, Ridge Regression, Elastic Net Regression, Generalized Additive Model, Gradient Boosted Machine, Regression Tree, Neural Network, and Random Forest. We discover that Gradient Boosted Machines are the most accurate in both regimes. The best models achieve a variance explained of 95.2% in the lockdown regime and 99.2% in the reopen regime. We describe the influence of the predictor variables as they change from regime to regime. Notably, we identify individual person movement, as tracked by GPS data, to be an important predictor variable. We conclude that government lockdowns are an extremely important de-densification strategy. Implications and questions for future research are discussed.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaime Derringer

AbstractTwo recent papers, and an author response to prior commentary, addressing the genetic architecture of human temperament and character claimed that “The identified SNPs explained nearly all the heritability expected”. The authors’ method for estimating heritability may be summarized as: Step 1: Pre-select SNPs on the basis of GWAS p<0.01 in the target sample. Step 2: Enter target sample genotypes (the pre-selected SNPs from Step 1) and phenotypes into an unsupervised machine learning algorithm (Phenotype-Genotype Many-to-Many Relations Analysis, PGMRA) for further reduction of the set of SNPs. Step 3: Test the sum score of the SNPs identified from Step 2, weighted by the GWAS regression weights estimated in Step 1, within the same target sample. The authors interpreted the linear regression model R2 obtained from Step 3 as a measure of successfully identified heritability. Regardless of the method applied to select SNPs in Step 2, the combination of Steps 1 and 3, as described, causes inflation of the estimated effect size. The extent of this inflation is demonstrated here, where random SNP selection and polygenic scoring from simulated random data recovered effect sizes similar to those reported in the original empirical papers.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiqi Jack Gao ◽  
Yu Sun

The start of 2020 marked the beginning of the deadly COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel SARS-COV-2 from Wuhan, China. As of the time of writing, the virus had infected over 150 million people worldwide and resulted in more than 3.5 million global deaths. Accurate future predictions made through machine learning algorithms can be very useful as a guide for hospitals and policy makers to make adequate preparations and enact effective policies to combat the pandemic. This paper carries out a two pronged approach to analyzing COVID-19. First, the model utilizes the feature significance of random forest regressor to select eight of the most significant predictors (date, new tests, weekly hospital admissions, population density, total tests, total deaths, location, and total cases) for predicting daily increases of Covid-19 cases, highlighting potential target areas in order to achieve efficient pandemic responses. Then it utilizes machine learning algorithms such as linear regression, polynomial regression, and random forest regression to make accurate predictions of daily COVID-19 cases using a combination of this diverse range of predictors and proved to be competent at generating predictions with reasonable accuracy.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Leistner ◽  
Laura Marika Vowels ◽  
Matthew J Vowels ◽  
Kristen Mark

Communication is an important component of many healthy sexual and romantic relationships. Positive communication strategies including expressing fondness and affection, exchanging compliments, and disclosing information about oneself with a partner are associated with relationship and sexual satisfaction, but less is known about its association to sexual desire. Most of the current literature has used traditional statistical analyses that assume errors are normally distributed and that associations between variables are linear. Our study aimed to examine the ways daily levels of four positive communication strategies are associated with relationship satisfaction, sexual satisfaction, and sexual desire among 246 mixed sex couples (N = 492). We also compared traditional hierarchical linear modeling with machine learning to compare results from the different data analytic techniques. Findings indicated that daily positive communication received from a partner was associated with all outcome variables of interest that day for both partners in the couple. All positive communication strategies predicted daily levels of desire, sexual satisfaction, and relationship satisfaction for the individual and each had unique associations with partner outcomes. Unique nonlinear interactions were found using machine learning. Findings have implications for practitioners and provide insight into the differences in findings between traditional analyses and machine learning.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Diesing

&lt;p&gt;The deep-sea floor accounts for &gt;90% of seafloor area and &gt;70% of the Earth&amp;#8217;s surface. It acts as a receptor of the particle flux from the surface layers of the global ocean, is a place of biogeochemical cycling, records environmental and climate conditions through time and provides habitat for benthic organisms. Maps of the spatial patterns of deep-sea sediments are therefore a major prerequisite for many studies addressing aspects of deep-sea sedimentation, biogeochemistry, ecology and related fields.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;A new digital map of deep-sea sediments of the global ocean is presented. The map was derived by applying the Random Forest machine-learning algorithm to published sample data of seafloor lithologies and environmental predictor variables. The selection of environmental predictors was initially based on the current understanding of the controls on the distribution of deep-sea sediments and the availability of data. A predictor variable selection process ensured that only important and uncorrelated variables were employed in the model. The three most important predictor variables were sea-surface maximum salinity, sea-floor maximum temperature and bathymetry. The occurrence probabilities of seven seafloor lithologies (Calcareous sediment, Clay, Diatom ooze, Lithogenous sediment, Mixed calcareous-siliceous ooze, Radiolarian ooze and Siliceous mud) were spatially predicted. The final map shows the most probable seafloor lithology and an associated probability value, which may be viewed as a spatially explicit measure of map confidence. An assessment of the accuracy of the map was based on a test set of observations not used for model training. Overall map accuracy was 69.5% (95% confidence interval: 67.9% - 71.1%). The sea-floor lithology map bears some resemblance with previously published hand-drawn maps in that the distribution of Calcareous sediment, Clay and Diatom ooze are very similar. Clear differences were however also noted: Most strikingly, the map presented here does not display a band of Radiolarian ooze in the equatorial Pacific.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The probability surfaces of individual seafloor lithologies, the categorical map of the seven mapped lithologies and the associated map confidence will be made freely available. It is hoped that they form a useful basis for research pertaining to deep-sea sediments.&lt;/p&gt;


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0240277
Author(s):  
Maki Rooksby ◽  
Simona Di Folco ◽  
Mohammad Tayarani ◽  
Dong-Bach Vo ◽  
Rui Huan ◽  
...  

Background Attachment research has been limited by the lack of quick and easy measures. We report development and validation of the School Attachment Monitor (SAM), a novel measure for largescale assessment of attachment in children aged 5–9, in the general population. SAM offers automatic presentation, on computer, of story-stems based on the Manchester Child Attachment Story Task (MCAST), without the need for trained administrators. SAM is delivered by novel software which interacts with child participants, starting with warm-up activities to familiarise them with the task. Children’s story completion is video recorded and augmented by ‘smart dolls’ that the child can hold and manipulate, with movement sensors for data collection. The design of SAM was informed by children of users’ age range to establish their task understanding and incorporate their innovative ideas for improving SAM software. Methods 130 5–9 year old children were recruited from mainstream primary schools. In Phase 1, sixty-one children completed both SAM and MCAST. Inter-rater reliability and rating concordance was compared between SAM and MCAST. In Phase 2, a further 44 children completed SAM complete and, including those children completing SAM in Phase 1 (total n = 105), a machine learning algorithm was developed using a “majority vote” procedure where, for each child, 500 non-overlapping video frames contribute to the decision. Results Using manual rating, SAM-MCAST concordance was excellent (89% secure versus insecure; 97% organised versus disorganised; 86% four-way). Comparison of human ratings of SAM versus the machine learning algorithm showed over 80% concordance. Conclusions We have developed a new tool for measuring attachment at the population level, which has good reliability compared to a validated attachment measure and has the potential for automatic rating–opening the door to measurement of attachment in large populations.


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