Trends in the length of long-term unemployment in Europe: an approach using working life tables, 2000-2018
Long-term unemployment has severe negative consequences. However, little is known about how long people could expect to be unemployed for more than one year during their lifespan, and which age groups are spending more time out of work while looking for jobs. We apply demographic techniques to enhance our understanding of long-term unemployment, and use the European Labour Force Survey and mortality data to calculate the time that a person could expect to be unemployed for more than a year in 25 European countries between 2000 and 2018. We identify four groups of countries that are characterised by different trends in the duration of long-term unemployment. Results show very different impact of the 2008 Recession on the length of long-term unemployment in Europe, and it was especially large in Southern and Eastern countries, as well as in Ireland. In addition, although younger workers record higher rates of long-term unemployment, older workers could expect to spend a larger proportion of their working lives unemployed. Finally, we show that, in some countries, the measure of long-term unemployment has been underestimated due to a discouraged worker effect.