scholarly journals La Falla de las Encuestas en las Elecciones Argentinas de 2019. Un Análisis en Perspectiva Comparada Internacional (The Failure of the Polls in the 2019 Argentine Elections. An Analysis in International Comparative Perspective)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Eduardo Jorge ◽  
Ernesto Marcelo Miró
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Professional Associations ◽  
Comparative Perspective ◽  
Sampling Errors ◽  
Public Opinion Research ◽  
The Government ◽  
International Comparative ◽  
The Impact

Abstract (English): The performance of polls in the 2019 Argentine elections reached its lowest point since democratic restoration in 1983. Their errors were much greater than those observed in recent years in mature democracies, where there is talk about a crisis of this type of surveys. In the primaries, Argentine pollsters widely underestimated the advantage of the Everyone's Front opposition alliance over the governing Together for Change. But after adjusting their methods, in the general election they overestimated that advantage by similar margins. We analyze both failures in an international comparative perspective. Vote intention data for president was used to calculate error indicators and compare them with current international averages and those of past decades, and with errors in several electoral cycles in the US and the UK. We examine ongoing changes in the survey industry, falling response rates, and causes of error identified by new academic studies and work commissioned by professional associations in the field of public opinion research. This literature shows that pre-election polls are no more inaccurate today than in the past and underlines the importance of "non-sampling" errors, particularly those produced by non-response bias, when the probability of participating in a poll is lower for certain groups, such as people with little interest in politics or low social or institutional trust. These types of errors and their causes are now better understood and procedures can be designed to improve the accuracy of estimations. We also discuss the impact of inaccurate polls on political strategies and the media narrative of elections, as well as the difficulty for pollsters, journalists and political actors to acknowledge and communicate the levels of uncertainty associated with electoral predictions. Our analysis highlights basic limitations of the polling industry and public opinion research in Argentina, such as the lack of a professional association and the incipient development of electoral behavior studies. Pollsters were surprised when voters punished the government because of the economic crisis, even though it was the most likely scenario according to a not very large but significant set of empirical studies on economic voting in Argentina and Latin America. The substantial errors in 2019 have implications for the reliability of issue polling, which may show a distorted picture of opinions in Argentine society.

Application of Data Envelopment Analysis and Key Characteristics of Greek Agro-Firms

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christos Lemonakis
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Efficiency Assessment ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Key Characteristics ◽  
The Government ◽  
Financial Characteristics ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to investigate key characteristics for the competitiveness in Greek agro-firms during the time period 2004 to 2011, based on firm level financial data. The study attempts to determine the firms' efficiency as well as the impact of exporting activity in agro-firms competitiveness, and more specifically in fisheries, farms with livestock and farms with fruits, vegetables and cereals. Although many empirical studies have been conducted relative to manufacturing firms' financial characteristics, limited research exists on agro-food firms. The use of DEA method seems to be a very useful tool for efficiency assessment and identification of best practices in firms' management for both managers and the Government as well in order to facilitate the growth of the agricultural sector.

Acceptance of social innovation in Malaysia

2013 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-236
Author(s):  
Maizatul Haizan Mahbob ◽  
Wan Idros Wan Sulaiman ◽  
Samsudin A. Rahim ◽  
Wan Azreena Wan Jaafar ◽  
Wan Sharazad Wan Sulaiman
Keyword(s):  
Social Innovation ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Civil Servants ◽  
Public Employees ◽  
The People ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
On Line ◽  
The Government ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact

Innovation is a key factor to bring about change. The government should formulate policies that are innovative to bring change to the nation. A government that enhances transformation, is a dynamic and progressive government. The Government Transformation Programme (GTP) in Malaysia, that is implemented in three phases started in 2010, is studied to examine how the programme is being accepted by the people. GTP is a programme that has never been implemented before. This programme emphasises more on performance and results of civil servants rather than budget spending. It also emphasises more accurately on planning. The aim is to produce high levels of accuracy and accountability of public employees and to provide rapid results in a short time as desired by the people. The 2011 GTP report showed that more than three million people have been positively impacted by this programme although it has only been implemented for two years. However, empirical studies found that people did not really feel the impact of the GTP programme. Although this programme was advocated through electronic and on-line media, many people still do not understand what is exactly the GTP and what are to be achieved through this programme.

The impact of online grocery shopping on stockpile behavior in Covid-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 459-470
Author(s):  
Na Hao ◽  
H. Holly Wang ◽  
Qingjie Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chains ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Grocery Shopping ◽  
Distribution Centers ◽  
Community Group ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Offline Channels ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis research is to examine the impact of online channels on food stockpile behavior.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, we use bivariate probit models to empirically investigate the impact of online purchasing channels on Chinese urban consumer food hoarding behaviors with random survey samples.FindingsResults show that fresh food e-commerce channels are more likely to be associated with panic stockpile behaviors due to higher likelihood of supply shortages than offline channels with government assistance in logistic management. In contrast, community group buy, another format of e-commerce, appears superior in satisfying the consumer needs and easing the panic buying perception.Practical implicationsIt suggests that online channels may have diverse impacts on consumers' panic stockpiling behaviors during the extreme situations. Online channels need to develop efficient supply chains to be more resilient to extreme situations and the government shall recognize the increasing share of the online channels together with traditional offline channels when implementing supporting policies.Social implicationsWith ever increasing share of online channels, it is imperative in terms of policy implications to understand how would online channels affect hoarding behavior.Originality/valueWe are the first study in online shopping's impact on food stockpile during pandemics using a random sample. Although food stockpile behavior at times of emergency have been investigated in many literature, there are no empirical studies on the impact of online channels on stockpile behaviors under extreme situations. Unlike disasters that immediately impact every entity in supply chains covering producers, vendors, distribution centers and retailers, pandemics did not render supply chains affected immediately, but rather increase consumers' willingness to shop online to avoid virus. Thus, Covid-19 provides a natural experiment to investigate the online channels' impact on stockpile behavior.

Public Opinion Research in Government

1949 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 564-572 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold F. Gosnell ◽  
Moyca C. David
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Social Scientist ◽  
Census Bureau ◽  
Public Opinion Research ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Opinion Surveys ◽  
Actual Use ◽  
The Government ◽  
Radio Programs

The actual use of polling techniques by the federal government falls far short of what one eminent social scientist, Julian L. Woodward, foresees for the future. He says: “Sooner or later, the government itself will have to go into the polling field and provide both its administrators and its legislators with adequate and sound information on what the public thinks. Eventually this sort of information will become as necessary as census data and will be provided by an agency with a reputation for unbiased research equal to that now enjoyed by the present Census Bureau.”While the potentialities of public opinion research in the government have only begun to be exploited, administrators and even legislators, who characteristically have been more hostile toward polling, have found methods of testing public opinion answerable to their needs. In accord with their purposes, they have used public opinion surveys to sample a small group of leaders, a large group, or the total population. They have been concerned also with content analysis of the press and of radio programs. The usefulness of attitude surveys was established particularly during the war and has continued since in a somewhat lesser degree.

Trade Unions, Economic Growth and Politics

1989 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 372-384
Author(s):  
Ignace Ng ◽  
John McCallum
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Union Density ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Growth Promoting ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Even though identifying the causes of economic growth has been the subject of numerous empirical studies, little is known about the impact of inter-country variations in unionization on differences in economic growth between countries. To fill this apparent gap in the literature, the primary objective of this paper is to examine the influence of trade unions on economic growth in seventeen oECD countries from 1960 to 1979. The results show that the nature of the relationship between trade unions and economic growth depends upon the ideology of the government in power. Under 'non-socialist' governments, increased union density reduces economic growth, whereas under `socialist' governments, a higher level of unionization increases economic growth. This, in turn, implies that governments can have an influence on whether trade unions are growth-inhibiting or growth-promoting. However, because of the limitations in the sample used, additional studies are needed before a consensus can be reached on this issue.

scholarly journals The Role and Experience of Sudan in Assisting To Develop and Implement National Drug Policies

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (11) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Selection Process ◽  
Professional Associations ◽  
National Drug ◽  
Medical Devices Act ◽  
Drug Policies ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Impact

The strategy of price liberalisation and privatisation had been implemented in Sudan over the last decade, and has had a positive result on government deficit. The investment law approved recently has good statements and rules on the above strategy in particular to pharmacy regulations. Under the pressure of the new privatisation policy, the government introduced radical changes in the pharmacy regulations. The 2001 Pharmacy and Poisons Act and its provisions established the Federal Pharmacy and Poison Board (FPPB). All the authorities of the implementation of Pharmacy and Poisons Act were given to this board. This article provides an overview of the impact of the pharmaceutical regulations on the quality of medicines on the Sudanese market from the perspective of the pharmacists working with drug importing companies. The information necessary to conduct the evaluation was collected from 30 pharmacists who are the owners or shareholders in medicines’ importing companies. The participants were selected randomly. 89% of respondents considered the medicines on the Sudanese market are generally of good quality. The design of the research itself may be considered inadequate with regard to selection process. However, the authors believe it provides enough evidence, and the current pharmaceutical regulations have some loopholes. The Pharmacy, Poisons, Cosmetics and Medical Devices Act-2001 and its regulation should be enforced. The overall set-up including the Act itself needs to be revised. The emerging crisis in pharmacy human resources requires significant additional effort to gather knowledge and dependable data that can inform reasonable, effective, and coordinated responses from government, industry, and professional associations. Furthermore research should be carried out to understand the scope, magnitude directions of the migratory flows, within and outside the country, as well as the characteristics and skills of the emigrated pharmacists.

scholarly journals Corruption and Anti-Corruption Research in China: A Critical Review of Chinese Top Journal Publications (1989–2017)

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Na Tang ◽  
Zi Ding ◽  
Yanni Xu
Keyword(s):  
New Media ◽  
Public Administration ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Economic Transition ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Cultural Traditions ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Comprehensive Picture ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This article synthesizes a cross-disciplinary literature review of 205 articles from Chinese top journals and presents a comprehensive picture of corruption and anti-corruption research in a non-Western setting. By attempting to describe how corruption negatively affects the public administration and how improved public administration can mitigate corruption, this study finds that the Chinese research is gradually shifting from qualitative analysis to quantitative research but that empirical research needs to be developed further. In addition, in the review, human greed, economic transition, institutional omissions, a weak civil society, and social and cultural traditions are found to be the main causes of corruption in China. The effect of corruption on economic development differs on the basis of the institutional situation and social environment, but the influence of corruption on social stability and public satisfaction with the government is often negative in China. In addition, the anti-corruption mechanism has changed from the campaign against corruption (1950s–1980s) to institutionalized anti-corruption (1990s) and finally to anti-corruption through new media platforms (since the 2000s). Evaluations of anti-corruption effects are still lacking in China, especially in empirical studies. The following three aspects deserve further study: (1) the corruption mechanisms, (2) the impact of the establishment of new state institutions on anti-corruption, and (3) the relationship between political factors and anti-corruption efforts in China.

Divided We Fall: Opposition Fragmentation and the Electoral Fortunes of Governing Parties

2009 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 419-434 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ko Maeda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Parliamentary Democracies ◽  
Clarity Of Responsibility ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Opposition Parties

This article introduces the concept of opposition fragmentation into the study of the determinants of election results. Empirical studies have demonstrated that anti-government economic voting is likely to take place where the clarity of responsibility (the degree to which voters can attribute policy responsibility to the government) is high. This argument is extended by focusing on the effects of the degree of opposition fragmentation in influencing the extent to which poor economic performance decreases the government’s vote share. With data from seventeen parliamentary democracies, it is shown that when there are fewer opposition parties, the relationship between economic performance and governing parties’ electoral fortune is stronger. Opposition fragmentation appears to be as strong a factor as the clarity of responsibility.

The Impact of Public Opinion Research On Our Society

1957 ◽  
Vol 21 (1, Anniversary Issue Devoted to Twenty Years of Public Opinion Research) ◽  
pp. 33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold D. Lasswell
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Opinion Research ◽  
The Impact

Wage Arrears and Economic Voting in Russia

2006 ◽  
Vol 100 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
KASPAR RICHTER
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Attitudes ◽  
Working Women ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Personal Finances ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Rich ◽  
The Government ◽  
Wage Arrears ◽  
The Impact

This paper revisits the issue of economic voting in the context of the 1996 Presidential Election in Russia. The election was branded as a fundamental choice between capitalism and communism, yet voters were also grappling with a large crisis of personal finances: about one in two workers experienced nonpayments of wages at the time of the elections. The analysis exploits a rich nationally representative household panel dataset to identify the impact of wage arrears on the second-round election outcome. Wage arrears reduced the vote for the incumbent President Yeltsin among workers from around 65% to 49%, which amounts to a drop of 4% in the Yeltsin vote in the second round. Support for Yeltsin vote declined with the amount of wage arrears at the time of the vote and with wage arrears in 1995. Wage arrears led more voters to believe the government to be noncaring and to favor income restrictions for the rich. Political attitudes of working men changed more than those of working women.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document