scholarly journals Model Prediksi Kebutuhan Air Berbasis Sistem Dinamik di Kabupaten Mojokerto

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 91
Author(s):  
Erna Tri Asmorowati ◽  
Diah Sarasanty

Mojokerto is one of the leading regions in East Java Province This of course has consequences for growth in all fields, especially industry and housing. So that it will have an influence either directly or indirectly on the growth of other supporting facilities growth in various fields leads to increased demand for water due  to climate change, several springs in Mojokerto district have decreased by 60% from their original condition. This study aims to predict future water needs with the influence of changes in population, the effect of increasing the number of industries and facilities, both commercial and non-commercial using a dynamic system so that it can be used as a basis for water resource management decisions. In analyzing a complex system that works with real conditions, it is very risky and costly, therefore we need a model that can represent the conditions of the existing system. The stages in the research are as follows: 1. Secondary data collection in the study area which includes: Population data, data on the number of public facilities, data on the number of hotel rooms, data on the number of hospital rooms, data on rice fields, data on the number of livestock, data on the area of tourism and data on the number of markets; (2) Data Analysis; (3) System Dynamic Analysis;(4)Simulation of water demand prediction in the study area;(5) Model validation with the structure validation test and the AVE and AME validation tests. The simulation model for the prediction of water demand in Mojekerto Regency based on a dynamic system is declared valid because it has fulfilled the structure test and validation test both AVE and AME From the results of the scenario simulation applied, it was able to save water by 30% for domestic water needs and 92% for non-domestic water needs. It is necessary to make a model to determine the availability of existing water resources so that a model of water resources balance in Mojokerto Regency is compiled.

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 288-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Netra B. Chhetri

Planning for sustainable water management in the arid region of the southwestern USA is challenging mostly due to only partial understanding of factors converging around water supply and demand. Some of the factors that prompt concern about the adequacy of water resources are: (a) a growing urban population seeking a range of services, including the need to preserve and enhance aquatic ecosystems; (b) dwindling water storage due to multi-year drought conditions; and (c) the prospect of human-induced climate changes and its consequences in the hydrologic system of the region. This study analyzes the potential for water saving in the Phoenix Active Management Area (AMA) of Central Arizona, which includes the city of Phoenix, one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in the country. Based on an extensive literature review and secondary data analysis, this paper investigates multiple factors that place increasing strain on current water resources, and attempts to extend this analysis to 2025. Outdoor water use within the residential landscape is the most important factor that strains water resources in Phoenix AMA. Any gain in efficiency through agricultural water demand management would not only improve the availability of water for other uses in the AMA, but would facilitate adaptation of the agricultural system to climate and other ongoing changes.


Author(s):  
Dina Paramitha Anggraeni Hidayat ◽  
Yuddi Yudistira

<p><em>In Indonesia, water resources management planning has done based on river area. But the problem is the calculation still based on population data with administrative boundary. This is caused by the lack of population data with watershed or river area boundary. Geographical Information System (GIS) is a tools to analyze, visualize and interpret data with spatial and geographic data. For this research, GIS is used to generate population data with watershed and river area boundary,then the result will used for domestic water demand calculation for Cisadane upstream watershed. For all district in Cisadane Upstream Watershed, the largest district in entire watershed are Cibungbulang, Leuwiliang and Nanggung. But the most dense population are Ciomas, Ciampea and Cibungbulang. The calculation using watershed boundary resulting significant difference from district boundary. With spatial data population using watershed boundary, domestic water demand calculation result can be more accurate than using all district population data. </em></p>


Author(s):  
Shangming Jiang ◽  
Shaowei Ning ◽  
Xiuqing Cao ◽  
Juliang Jin ◽  
Fan Song ◽  
...  

Due to the importance and complexity of water resources regulations in the pond irrigation systems of the Jiang-Huai hilly regions, a water allocation simulation model for pond irrigation districts based on system simulation theory was developed in this study. To maximize agricultural irrigation benefits while guaranteeing rural domestic water demand, an optimal water resources regulation model for pond irrigation districts and a simulation-based optimal water resources regulation technology system for the pond irrigation system were developed. Using this system, it was determined that the suitable pond coverage rate (pond capacity per unit area) was 2.92 × 105 m3/km2. Suitable water supply and operational rules for adjusting crop planting structure were also developed the water-saving irrigation method and irrigation system. To guarantee rural domestic water demand, the multi-year average total irrigation water deficit of the study area decreased by 4.66 × 104 m3/km2; the average multi-year water deficit ratio decreased from 20.40% to 1.18%; the average multi-year irrigation benefit increased by 1.11 × 105 RMB (16,128$)/km2; and the average multi-year revenue increased by 6.69%. Both the economic and social benefits were significant. The results of this study provide a theoretical basis and technological support for comprehensive pone governance in the Jiang-Huai hilly regions and promote the establishment of a water allocation scheme and irrigation system for pond irrigation districts, which have practical significance and important application value.


Author(s):  
Dua'a B. Telfah ◽  
Riccardo Minciardi ◽  
Giorgio Roth

Abstract. Modelling and optimization techniques for water resources allocation are proposed to identify the economic value of the unsatisfied municipal water demand against demands emerging from other sectors. While this is always an important step in integrated water resource management perspective, it became crucial for water scarce Countries. In fact, since the competition for the resource is high, they are in crucial need to trade values which will help them in satisfying their policies and needs. In this framework, hydro-economic, social equity and environmental constraints need to be satisfied. In the present study, a hydro-economic decision model based on optimization schemes has been developed for water resources allocation, that enable the evaluation of the economic cost of a deficiency in fulfilling the municipal demand. Moreover, the model enables efficient water resources management, satisfying the demand and proposing additional water resources options. The formulated model is designed to maximize the demand satisfaction and minimize water production cost subject to system priorities, preferences and constraints. The demand priorities are defined based on the effect of demand dissatisfaction, while hydrogeological and physical characteristics of the resources are embedded as constraints in the optimization problem. The application to the City of Amman is presented. Amman is the Capital City of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, a Country located in the south-eastern area of the Mediterranean, on the East Bank of the Jordan River. The main challenge for Jordan, that threat the development and prosperity of all sectors, is the extreme water scarcity. In fact, Jordan is classified as semi-arid to arid region with limited financial resources and unprecedented population growth. While the easy solution directly goes to the simple but expensive approach to cover the demand, case study results show that the proposed model plays a major role in providing directions to decision makers to orient their policies and strategies in order to achieve sustainability of scarce water resources, satisfaction of the minimum required demand as well as financial sustainability. In addition, results map out national needs and priorities that are crucial in understanding and controlling the complexity of Jordan's water sector, mainly for the city of Amman.


2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 465
Author(s):  
Isvan Taufik

WEAP is one of the hydrological software in evaluating and planning the water balance of a region. The WEAP approach method operates with the basic principle of water balance and allows the creation of scenarios based on existing conditions to investigate the impact of policies or alternative assumptions in the use and availability of water in the future.The purpose of this study includes; (1) Analyzing the potential availability of raw water in each Ciliman Sub-watershed, (2) Analyzing the raw water needs of the Ciliman watershed, (3). Analyzing water allocation for each raw water requirement in the Ciliman watershed to be fulfilled and (4). Analyzing the potential for developing raw water infrastructure in the Ciliman watershed. The types of data used in this study are secondary data including: (1) monthly rainfall data from the Ciliman reservoir rainfall observation station, Gunung Kencana, Bojong Manik and KP3 at year 1998 - 2015, (2 ) population data of Ciliman watershed region, (3) the amount of raw water needs data, (4) Irrigation networks around the Ciliman watershed data (5) maps of the Ciliman watershed, (6) Tools used in this study include computer units and WEAP software.The resultsof the analysis shows that the existing simulation for domestic water needs can be fully fulfilled (100%) until the simulation time in 2036 for all sub-districts around the Ciliman watershed, except in August, the following sub-districts are not 100% fulfilled: Cirinten Subdistrict water deficit and only fulfilled 0.04%, Gunung Kencana Subdistrict only fulfilled 99.93%, Sukaresmi Subdistrict only fulfilled 11.69% and Panimbang Subdistrict only fulfilled 84.36%. The water needs of the Munjul industry in September to July are 100% fulfilled, while August is fulfilled by 40.55%. The water needs of KEK Tanjung Lesung and South Banten Airport from October to July are 100% fulfilled, while August is fulfilled 5% and 0.01% and September 30.27% and 30.60%.Irrigation water needs in the small irrigation area are 100% fulfilled in Planting Season (Rice) (1st week of October - 1st week of February) and in planting season II (Rice) (2ndweek of February - 2nd week of June), except irrigation in the Cipanggelangan watershed on MT I (November) fulfilled 57.80% and in MT.II (May) fulfilled 98.29%. Kramatjaya pump irrigation in MT I (November) was fulfilled 93.56% while in planting season III (Crops) (1st week of June - 2nd week of September) could not be fulfilled. The water needs of the Ciliman Irrigation Area are 100% fulfilled in October to June except in November only 92.10% is fulfilled, while the July to September deficit is only fulfilled by 36.16%, 3.18% and 32.85%. With the scenario of dam development with 4 alternatives, it can reduce the number of water supply failures until year 2036, so that raw water needs for various purposes can be fulfilled.


Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1860 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yahua Wang ◽  
Tingting Wan ◽  
Cecilia Tortajada

Water resources management is increasingly important for sustainable economic and social development. A coherent division of the development stages is of primary importance for selecting and implementing related water resource management strategies. Using evolving supply–demand relationships, this paper proposes a framework that considers water development stages to present a series of dynamic relationships between water demand changes and overall economic development. The framework is applied to China to advance the understanding of how demand evolves at different stages of water resources development under specific socioeconomic circumstances, and of strategic choices in general. The case of China explains how water resources management has gradually improved during distinct socioeconomic development stages. It illustrates the varieties and effectiveness of water policies made to adapt to changing demand over the course of socioeconomic development. The framework can be potentially applied to other countries or regions to identify the development stage in order to select proper water management strategies.


Author(s):  
Arezoo Boroomandnia ◽  
Omid Bozorg-Haddad ◽  
Jimmy Yu ◽  
Mariam Darestani

Abstract Fast-growing water demand, population growth, global climate change, and water quality deterioration all drive scientists to apply novel approaches to water resource management. Nanotechnology is one of the state-of-the-art tools in scientists’ hands which they can use to meet human water needs via reuse of water and utilizing unconventional water resources. Additionally, monitoring water supply systems using new nanomaterials provides more efficient water distribution networks. In this chapter, we consider the generic concepts of nanotechnology and its effects on water resources management strategies. A wide range of nanomaterials and nanotechnologies, including nano-adsorbents, nano-photocatalysts, and nano-membranes, are introduced to explain the role of nanotechnology in providing new water resources to meet growing demand. Also, nanomaterial application as a water alternative in industry, reducing water demand in the industrial sector, is presented. Another revolution made by nanomaterials, also discussed in this chapter, is their use in water supply systems for monitoring probable leakage and leakage reduction. Finally, we present case studies that clarify the influence of nanotechnology on water resources and their management strategies. These case studies prove the importance and inevitable application of nanotechnology to satisfy the rising water demand in the modern world, and show the necessity of nanotechnology awareness for today's water experts.


2012 ◽  
Vol 599 ◽  
pp. 701-704
Author(s):  
Zhen Quan Tang ◽  
Gang Liu ◽  
Wen Nian Xu ◽  
Zhen Yao Xia ◽  
Hai Xiao

Prediction of water demand is a basic link in water resources plan and management. Reasonable and accurate prediction of storage helps to develop the plan of water resources the next year, which is very favorable to improve the utilization ratio of water resources and reduce the waste of water resources. This paper uses BP neural network to simulate and predict the water content based on the data of water in recent ten years in Hubei province and evaluates the forecast results. The results show that BP neural network for water demand prediction is feasible.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 310
Author(s):  
Qing Shuang ◽  
Rui Ting Zhao

Predicting water demand helps decision-makers allocate regional water resources efficiently, thereby preventing water waste and shortage. The aim of this study is to predict water demand in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of North China. The explanatory variables associated with economy, community, water use, and resource availability were identified. Eleven statistical and machine learning models were built, which used data covering the 2004–2019 period. Interpolation and extrapolation scenarios were conducted to find the most suitable predictive model. The results suggest that the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) model demonstrates the best prediction performance in the two scenarios. The model was further tested for three other regions in China, and its robustness was validated. The water demand in 2020–2021 was provided. The results show that the identified explanatory variables were effective in water demand prediction. The machine learning models outperformed the statistical models, with the ensemble models being superior to the single predictor models. The best predictive model can also be applied to other regions to help forecast water demand to ensure sustainable water resource management.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 847
Author(s):  
Bo Ram Kim ◽  
Sang-Il Lee

As an effective water management method to respond to the increasing severity of drought, this study proposed a conjunctive operation using a surface reservoir and subsurface dams. The proposed methodology predicts the probable rainfall according to the drought severity and the water demand, and uses these as the basis for water allocation. Sokcho City, located in South Korea, was used as the study case. Sokcho is a tourist city that has suffered from water shortages for many years due to its excessive dependence on a single groundwater dam. Considering conjunctive operation, drought frequency, and drought duration, a total of 80 cases under four scenarios were generated and simulated to determine the water supply capability over the entire year. The results indicate that domestic water can be supplied throughout the year with appropriate water allocation, even when a once-in-50-year drought lasts for 120 days. Furthermore, the water supply potential, which is the additionally available capacity in a reservoir, was used to assess the effects of conjunctive operation. It was estimated that, for a once-in-10-year drought, up to 318% of the annual water demand was available in the reservoir. As the proposed methodology is relatively simple, it offers a useful water resource management tool for sites with similar social and environmental conditions.


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