scholarly journals Impact of Government Expenditure in Economic Growth of Nepal: ARDL Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-40
Author(s):  
Keshar Bahadur Kunwar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Error Correction Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lm Test

Public expenditure refers to the expenditure made by public authority, i.e., central government and other local bodies to carter the demand of the people. It is for protecting the citizens and for promoting their economic and social welfare. Public expenditure is one of the instruments through which government influence economic events. The specific objective of this paper is to analyze the long run and short run relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Nepal and to examine the Causal relationship between the public expenditure and economic growth in Nepal. The study employed quantitative techniques and econometrics methods to analyze the data. This study used time series data. Data analysis begins with the testing of the unit root of the series to confirm whether the data are stationary or not. Augmented Dicky Fuller unit root test, co-integration test is employed to check the relationship of the variables under study. One period lagged LNGE has significant and positive impact on RGDP. If 1 percent increase in GE leads to increase by 34.99 percent in RGDP at 5 percent level of significance. The coefficient of error correction term (-0.782018) is significant at one percent level. Highly significant negative sign of the error correction term strengthens the presence of long-run relationship among the variables. However, the speed of adjustment from previous year’s disequilibrium in RGDP added to current year’s equilibrium is only 78.20 percent. The P-value of Breusch-Godfrey serial Correlation LM Test, Heteroscedasticity test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey and normality test is greater than 5 percent which is desirable. So, this model is free from auto correlation and heteroscedasticity. The residual is normally distributed.

scholarly journals Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth in Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 131-144
Author(s):  
Bashu Dev Dhungel
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Tertiary Education ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Error Correction Term ◽  
Stable Relationship ◽  
Active Population ◽  
Long Run

This article, on infrastructure development and economic growth in Nepal, focuses on the infrastructure development that seems to affect economic growth in Nepal during the study period 1994-2018. To investigate the casual relationship between infrastructure development and the economic growth, this study has employed Engel-Granger cointegration test and Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) model. The results showed a cointegration and a stable relationship between gross domestic product and infrastructure variables—such as total length of road, percentage of economically active population, percentage of tertiary education enrollment, and gross capital formation. In addition, the coefficient of Error Correction term was -0.88—signifying about 88 percent adjustments towards equilibrium, confirmed by the occurrence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables. The sign of Error correction term (Ect) became negative and statistically significant at the 1 percent level, indicating the possibility of convergence towards equilibrium in each period with adjustment captured by difference terms. This study has its implication for policymakers to raise economic growth through infrastructure development. The expansion of infrastructure network leads to the enhancement of efficiency and competitive market, and the acceleration of the economic growth within the country.

scholarly journals Impact of economic growth on international reserve holdings in Brazil

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 605-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
MOHAMMAD KASHIF ◽  
P. SRIDHARAN ◽  
S. THIYAGARAJAN
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Error Correction Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT This study investigated the impact of economic growth on Brazilian international reserves holdings in the context of Error Correction Mechanism using data over the 1980-2014 period. The results reveal that economic growth is highly significant. From the estimation of our model, we argue that economic growth and international reserves have positive long run relationship. Error correction estimates validated our model for error correction term is negative and statistically significant. Besides, our model suggested that economic growth has short run relationship too. The speed of adjustment is more than 40% which indicated that error correction term corrects previous year disequilibrium at the rate of 40.4%.

scholarly journals Contribution of Agriculture Sector in Economic Growth of Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-120
Author(s):  
Sumia Bint Zaman ◽  
Muhammad Ishaq ◽  
Muhammad Azam Niazi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run

There has been controversy in the field of development economics about the significance of the role of agriculture sector in economic growth. Going through the data, it indicates that agriculture sector is significant contributor to the economy of Pakistan as it contributes about 19% in national GDP. This study was designed to statistically test the contribution of agriculture sector in economic growth of Pakistan through estimation of relationship between agriculture sector and Pakistan’s economic growth using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test and Error Correction Model (ECM). Time series data on selected variables was utilized from 1961-2018. Study found that real agricultural value added has a significant positive impact on real GDP per capita in the long-run where one percent increase in real agricultural value added increases the real GDP/capita by 0.35%. This indicated that the promotion of agriculture sector leaves far reaching effects with respect to economic growth of the country. These results advocated for the development of agriculture sector in line with the long-term goals of economic growth and emphasized in investing in agriculture sector. Coefficient of error correction term (ECT) is -0.62 meaning that if there is any disequilibrium, it will restore @ 62 percent in the first period. Results also proved the importance of capital formation both the physical capital and human capital. Finding suggested that we should investment in human health to enhance the economic growth as suggested by exogenous growth theory. Moreover, it can also be suggested to create conducive environment and economic opportunities to reap the benefits of demographic dividends of decreased mortality in the long-run. As per analysis, maintaining stability is critically important for economic growth. Moreover, literature hypothesize the positive effect of TOT for economic growth, but analysis indicated that TOT has not been able to put any significant impact on economic growth. Further, trend analysis also pointed out that TOT has been fluctuating over the time. It can be inferred from the analysis that there is need to stabilize TOT and restructure the exports of the country to generate the significant positive impact.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Tax Revenue and Economic Growth in Nepal: A Co-integration Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-36
Author(s):  
Gautam Maharjan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The main objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between tax revenue and economic growth in Nepal. The 43 years' annual time series data from 1974/75 to 2016/17 of GDP, tax revenue and nontax revenue have been used to test the causal relationship of the variables. A unit root test, Engle-Granger’s co-integration and Error Correction Model have been applied for the data analysis. The variables have been found stationary after first differencing I(1) when Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test is employed. From Engel-Granger test, it has been found that the variables are co-integrated. The short-term coefficients are not significant, however error correction term (ECT) is significant and contains a negative sign in the error correction model (ECM). It validates the ECM model. The ECT has shown that the annual speed of adjustment from disequilibrium to equilibrium is 34.3 percent. So far as the relationship is concerned, there is a long run relationship between tax revenue and economic growth in Nepal controlling the non-tax revenue. The impact of tax revenue on economic growth could be a good impetus for the policy maker and planner to increase the collection of revenue for the country.

scholarly journals Budget Deficits and Economic Growth: A Vector Error Correction Modelling of South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 215-223
Author(s):  
Kagiso Molefe ◽  
Andrew Maredza
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run

The primary motivation behind this study was to explore the consequential effects of budget deficit on South Africa`s economic growth. Six variables were used, namely: real GDP, budget deficit, real interest rate, labour, gross fixed capital formation and unemployment. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to estimate the long-run equation and also measure the correction from disequilibrium of preceding periods. Using annual time series data spanning the period 1985 to 2015, empirical evidence from the study revealed that budget deficits and economic growth are inversely related. It was therefore concluded that high levels of budget deficit in South Africa have detrimental effects on the growth of the economy. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study revealed that about 29 per cent of the variation in GDP from its equilibrium level is corrected within one year. The results obtained in this study are favourably similar to those in the literature and are also sustained by previous studies.

scholarly journals Consumer Spending and Consumer Confidence in South Africa: Cointegration Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-104
Author(s):  
John Khumalo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Long Run

The study uses the time series data covering the period 1980Q1 to 2012Q3 to test the existence of any possible long run relationship between consumer spending and consumer confidence in South Africa. The analysis is done using the Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model, with the unit root and the direction of causation also tested before any inference can be concluded on this relationship. The unit root tests using the DF-GLS as well as the Ng-Peron show that consumer spending, consumer confidence and economic growth are integrated of order zero ~I(0). Causality results on the other hand reveal that causation runs from consumer confidence to consumer spending and from economic growth to consumer spending in South Africa. The non-existence of unit root compels the establishment of the long-run relationship that leads us to performing VECM to establish short-run and long-run dynamics. Our results indicate that the positive effect of consumer confidence cannot be refuted in South Africa and that it exerts a significant and positive impact on consumer spending, hence aggregate spending.

Financial development, FDI and economic growth: evidence from Sudan

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 1236-1249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdalla Sirag ◽  
Samira SidAhmed ◽  
Hamisu Sadi Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests

Purpose The effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth is widely believed to be contingent on the development of the financial sector. Nevertheless, as the possibility that the effect of financial development on growth being contingent on FDI has been neglected in existing literature, the authors have investigated it in this paper. In general, the purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of financial development and FDI on economic growth in Sudan using annual data from 1970 to 2014. Design/methodology/approach Since most of the macroeconomic variables are subject to unit root problem, the time series data are assessed using unit root and cointegration tests with/without structural break. Moreover, the study uses the fully modified ordinary least squares and the dynamic ordinary least squares techniques to estimate the long-run model. Findings The results of the cointegration tests provide evidence that a long-run relationship exists among variables even after accounting for the structural break. The results show that financial development and FDI are positive and significant in explaining economic growth in Sudan. Financial development is found to be more beneficial to economic growth than FDI. Moreover, the findings reveal that FDI leads to better economic performance through financial development. Interestingly, the findings of the study show that the effect of financial development on economic growth is further enhanced by the inflows of FDI. Research limitations/implications The government should focus on promoting FDI in more productive sectors. In addition, further cooperation with multinational enterprises is needed to increase FDI in the country. Originality/value This is the first paper that empirically examines both the interlinked impact of FDI on growth through financial development and the impact of financial development on economic growth through FDI in Sudan using appropriate econometric methods.

scholarly journals The Long-Run and Short-Run Impacts of Investment, Export, Money Supply, and Inflation on Economic Growth In Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erni Panca Kurniasih
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Term Investment

ABSTRACTThe development of investment and exports in Indonesia shows an increase, as well as money supply, while the inflation rate shows a decline, but this is not always followed by increasing economic growth. This study aims to explain the relationship between investment, export, money supply and inflation with the economic growth in Indonesia. The data used was time series data from the first quarter in 2001 to the fourth quarter in 2014 and was analyzed using multiple regression models with Error Correction Model (ECM) and classical assumptions. The study findings show that in short-term investment, export, money supply and inflation are not significant to economic growth. In long-run, investment has negative and significant effect on the economic growth, while export, money supply and inflation have positive and significant effect on the economic growth in Indonesia. Bank Indonesia must applied a tight money policy consistently to achieve the long-term inflation target ABSTRAKPerkembangan investasi dan ekspor di Indonesia menunjukkan peningkatan, demikian pula jumlah uang beredar, sementara tingkat inflasi menunjukkan penurunan, namun hal tersebut tidak selalu diikuti dengan meningkatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menjelaskan hubungan antara investasi, ekspor neto, jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data time series dari kuartal pertama tahun 2001 hingga kuartal keempat tahun 2014 dan dianalisa dengan menggunakan model regresi berganda dengan Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil studi menunjukkan  bahwa investasi, ekspor, jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek. Investasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang, sedangkan ekspor , jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi berpengaruh positif dan  signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Bank Indonesia harus menerapkan kebijakan moneter yang ketat secara konsisten pada pencapaian sasaran inflasi jangka menenngah 

scholarly journals Inflation and Economic Growth Paradox: A Co-integration Analysis in Nepal

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Uttam Lal Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

The empirical study investigates the relationship between economic growth, inflation and broad money supply in Nepal. Data since 1965 to 2020 are taken from World Bank and Autoregressive Distributive Lag Model is used to find cointegration between the variables to show long run and short run dynamics. Augmented Dickey- Fuller and Philips- Perron tests are conducted to find the unit roots in the model. Result shows the error correction term is negative (-0.75) and significant (0.0043) where bounds test supports the long run cointegration and error correction model suggest the speed of adjustment. The estimated regression equation is found robust and stable (serial correlation and heteroskedacity tests).  The research shows inflation has short run and long run impact on economic growth so inflation should be kept within its threshold level from sound monetary and fiscal policy mechanism.

scholarly journals Effect of Agricultural Sector Expenditure on Nigeria’s Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
O. O. Akanbi ◽  
E. G. Onuk ◽  
H. S. Umar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Probability Level ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run

The study examined the Effect of Government Agricultural Expenditure on Nigeria’s Economic Growth. Time series data (1981–2015) were generated from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the National Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive Statistics and Vector Error Correction Model were used for data analysis. A unit root test was carried out to ascertain the stationarity of the series. Johansen co-integration test was also carried out to establish co-integration status of the variables in the model. For valid inference, estimated coefficients were subjected to normality, autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity and dynamic stability tests. The null hypotheses in relation to the respective tests statistic could not be rejected at 5% level of significance. The negative sign and statistical significant of Error Correction term of the VEC model, further confirmed the existence of co-integrating relationship among the variables in the model. The descriptive statistics result shows that, for almost a decade, public spending on agriculture consistently decline and was below the 10% benchmark of the Maputo declaration. The estimated VECM results showed that on the long-run, only the coefficient of Government Agricultural Expenditure variable influenced the economic growth, which was proxy by National GDP. This influence was positive and statistically significant at 5% probability level. However, on the short run, the result showed that both coefficients of Government Agricultural Expenditure variable and that of agricultural output were both positive and statistically significant in influencing the economic growth (GDP) at 5% probability level. Hence, since government expenditure has positive and significant effect on economic growth both on the short run and long run, it is recommended that government should review upward agricultural expenditure to stimulate growth in Nigerian economy, which could trigger more employment opportunity, increase per capita income, improved agricultural sector infrastructural deficit  and reduce poverty.

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