scholarly journals Effect of Agricultural Sector Expenditure on Nigeria’s Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
O. O. Akanbi ◽  
E. G. Onuk ◽  
H. S. Umar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Probability Level ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run

The study examined the Effect of Government Agricultural Expenditure on Nigeria’s Economic Growth. Time series data (1981–2015) were generated from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the National Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive Statistics and Vector Error Correction Model were used for data analysis. A unit root test was carried out to ascertain the stationarity of the series. Johansen co-integration test was also carried out to establish co-integration status of the variables in the model. For valid inference, estimated coefficients were subjected to normality, autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity and dynamic stability tests. The null hypotheses in relation to the respective tests statistic could not be rejected at 5% level of significance. The negative sign and statistical significant of Error Correction term of the VEC model, further confirmed the existence of co-integrating relationship among the variables in the model. The descriptive statistics result shows that, for almost a decade, public spending on agriculture consistently decline and was below the 10% benchmark of the Maputo declaration. The estimated VECM results showed that on the long-run, only the coefficient of Government Agricultural Expenditure variable influenced the economic growth, which was proxy by National GDP. This influence was positive and statistically significant at 5% probability level. However, on the short run, the result showed that both coefficients of Government Agricultural Expenditure variable and that of agricultural output were both positive and statistically significant in influencing the economic growth (GDP) at 5% probability level. Hence, since government expenditure has positive and significant effect on economic growth both on the short run and long run, it is recommended that government should review upward agricultural expenditure to stimulate growth in Nigerian economy, which could trigger more employment opportunity, increase per capita income, improved agricultural sector infrastructural deficit  and reduce poverty.

scholarly journals Personal remittances, banking sector development and economic growth in Israel: A trivariate causality test

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1014-1027
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Per Capita

The current study investigates the causal relationship between personal remittances and economic growth using Israel time series data from 1975 to 2011. In a bid to contain the omission-of-variable bias not addressed in many past studies on this topic, this study included banking sector development as a third variable in the relationship between personal remittances and economic growth to create a tri-variate causality framework. Personal remittances as a ratio of GDP, domestic credit to private sector by banks as a ratio of GDP and GDP per capita were used as proxies for personal remittances, banking sector development and economic growth respectively for the purposes of this study. It used the Johansen co-integration test to examine the existence of the long run relationship and vector error correction model (VECM) to determine the direction of causality between personal remittances, banking sector development and economic growth both in the long and short run. The findings reveal that: (1) there is a significant long run causality relationship running from GDP per capita and banking sector development towards personal remittances, (2) there is an insignificant long run causality relationship running from personal remittances and GDP per capita towards banking sector development, (3) there is no long run causality relationship running from personal remittances and banking sector development towards GDP per capita and there is no short run causality relationship between the three variables that were under study in Israel. The author therefore recommends the authorities of Israel to speed up the implementation of banking sector development and economic growth programmes in order to increase the quantity of personal remittances inflows

scholarly journals Poverty, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1981-2019)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chinonye Emmanuel Onwuka
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Correction Technique ◽  
Lm Test ◽  
Integration Test

Abstract This study empirically examined the relationship between poverty, income inequality and economic growth in Nigeria. The study used time series data from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin between the periods from 1981 to 2019. The study employed the use of Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Co integration test and Error Correction technique. The unit root test results indicated that all the variables were stationary at first difference and co-integration test confirmed a long run relationship among the variables. The error correction model shows that about 96 percent of the discrepancy between the actual and the equilibrium value of economic growth is corrected or eliminated each year. The coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.68 which shows that about 68 percent variations in the economic growth were explained by the independent variables . Furthermore, the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test shows that the probability of the chi-square (2) is 0.2775 and this is greater than 0.05 at 5% significance level. This therefore confirms the absence of serial correlation. Also, the Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Heteroscadaticity test indicates that the probability of chi-square (5) is 0.1242 and this is greater than 0.05 at 5% significant level. This also confirms the absence of heteroscedasticity in the model. From the study, the findings revealed that income inequality has a negative relationship with economic growth in the country while poverty was found to be positively related to economic growth. Similarly, the findings also revealed that poverty and income inequality has an insignificant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Based on the findings, it can be concluded that poverty and income inequality has not significant relationship with economic growth in Nigeria. Thus, the study concludes that there is need for government of the country to come up with an all-inclusive policy and programme that will be targeted to the poor and give them ample opportunities to improve their welfare.

scholarly journals Impact of inflation on economic growth in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 33-41
Author(s):  
Ijaz Uddin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Introduction. High and sustained economic growth with low inflation is the central objective of the macroeconomic policy makers. Therefore, inflation has been one of the most researched topics in macroeconomics for the last many years because it has serious implications for GDP growth. The main aim of this empirical study to examined the relationship b/w (GDP) Gross Domestic Product Growth and inflation in Pakistan by using time series data from 1990 to 2015. Methodology. This study apply (ADF) Augmented dickey fuller test for stationary, and then, Engel Granger Co-integration test, for short run and long run association. Results. There is a strong positive and significance relationship between GDP growth and inflation in Pakistan. Which indicate that is a 1unit increase an inflation rate will caused by GDP increased by 0.27 unit.

scholarly journals The Econometric Estimation of Macroeconomic Effect of Financial Development on Economic Growth in Cote d’Ivoire: A Long and Short Run Analysis, 1970-2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 284
Author(s):  
Drama Bédi Guy Hervé
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Cote D'ivoire ◽  
Côte D’Ivoire ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cote D’Ivoire ◽  
Côte D'ivoire ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The aim of this article was to investigate empirically the link between financial development and economic growth in Cote d’Ivoire using time series data covering the period of 1970-2014, both in short and long run. The Error correction model and cointegration method were performed to capture the short and long run dynamics of this relationship respectively. The cointegration test result showed evidence of long-run and significant causal between financial development and economic growth in Cote d’Ivoire during the study period. Furthermore, the coefficient of the error correction term (ECT) in the short-run dynamic model was statistically insignificant with inappropriate sign and weak. Consequently, the empirical evidence suggests that countries authorities should promote domestic private credit to boost liquidity level to ensure long-term price stability and strengthen local industries production capacities.

scholarly journals Oil Revenue and Economic Growth; an Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

2019 ◽  
pp. 29-40
Author(s):  
Ewubare Dennis Brown ◽  
Uzoma Chidoka Nnamaka
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Domestic Price ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Oil Sector

The study examined the effects of oil revenue on economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2017. Time series data were sourced from secondary sources on Gross Domestic Product, Oil Revenue, Oil Rent and Domestic Price of Petrol. The analysis started by analyzing the descriptive statistics of the series and proceeded to examination of the stochastic characteristics of each time series by testing their stationary using Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. The ARDL model was used to estimate the coefficients of the parameters for both the short-run and the long-run. The F-statistics obtained from the bounds co-integration test shows a stable long run relationship between the variables. Findings from the study showed that in the long run, oil revenue and oil rent impacted on GDP positively although not significantly. In the short run however, both variables retarded economic growth in Nigeria. This goes a long way to show that the enormous windfall from crude oil in the nation has been mismanaged. The domestic price of petrol impacted positively on economic growth both in the long run and short run. The study therefore recommends a judicious use of the revenue generated from the oil sector to provide long term sustainable economic growth. In addition, due to the volatility and uncertainty in the oil sector in Nigeria, government should embark on a realistic diversification plan to alternative sectors of the economy to enhance the productive base of the nation seeing that crude oil is an exhaustible asset.

scholarly journals Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Developing Countries- Evidence from Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Lawal Muhammad ◽  
Victor Ushahemba Ijirshar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
Integration Test

This study examines the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic growth of Nigeria. The main objective of the study is to explore and quantify the contribution of Foreign Direct inflows to economic growth in Nigeria and other macro-economic variable(s). The model built for the study proxy real gross domestic product as the endogenous variable measuring economic growth as a function of Foreign Direct Investment,Domestic capital, Government Expenditure, real exchange rate and Inflation rate as the exogenous variables in the first model while unemployment was expressed as a function of Foreign Direct Investment, Governmentexpenditure and real GDP. Annual time series data was gathered from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulletin, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the World Economic Outlook spanning 1970 to 2013. The study used econometric techniques of Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, pairwise granger causality test,Johansen co-integration test and error correction model (ECM) for empirical analysis. The results of unit rootrevealed that, all the variables in the model were integrated at first difference while pairwise granger causality revealed a unidirectional relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Economic growth (GDP) in Nigeria and no causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and unemployment rate. The co-integration test shows that, long-run equilibrium relationship exists among the variables captured in model but model 2 revealed no hypothesized co-integrating equation. FDI had positive but not statistically significantrelationship with Nigerians economy growth in both the short and long run. The findings from the error correction method show that, the distortion in will adjust itself to equilibrium at 0.3% in each period which is very slow in adjusting to equilibrium in case of any distortion. The study recommends that, the government need to aggressively initiate policies to channel the Nation's domestic savings for investment purposes and enact policies to train human capital to argument increasing FDI into the country to stimulate the economy towards rapid and sustained economic growth.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

Has the low level of economic growth spurred informal sector activities in Uganda? An empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Esaku
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeIn this paper, the authors examine how economic growth shapes the shadow economy in the long and short run.Design/methodology/approachUsing annual time series data from Uganda, drawn from various data sources, covering the period from 1991 to 2017, the authors apply the ARDL modeling approach to cointegration.FindingsThis paper finds that an increase in economic growth significantly reduces the size of the shadow economy, in both the long and short run, all else equal. However, the long-run relationship between the shadow economy and growth is non-linear. The results suggest that the rise of the shadow economy could partially be attributed to the slow and sluggish rate of economic growth.Practical implicationsThese findings imply that addressing informality requires addressing underlying factors of underdevelopment since improvements in economic growth also translate into a reduction in the size of the shadow economy in the short and long run.Originality/valueThese findings reveal that the low level of economic growth is an issue because it spurs informal sector activities in the short run. However, as the economy improves, it becomes an incentive for individuals to operate in the informal sector. Additionally, tackling shadow activities in the short run could help improve tax revenue collection.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH REMITANSI, INVESTASI ASING LANGSUNG, IMPOR DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Regina Septriani Putri ◽  
Ariusni Ariusni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract : This study examined and analysis the effect of remittances, foreigndirect investment, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia in the long run andshort run. This study using Error Correction Model (ECM) method and using theannual time series data from 1989 to 2018. This study found that: (1) remittancehave an insignificant positive effect on economic growth in the long run and shortrun,(2)foreign direct investment have a significant positive impact on economicgrowth in the long run and short run, (3) import have an insignificant positiveimpact on economic growth both in the long run and short run. To increase theeconomic growth in the future, this study suggests the government to decresingimports of consume goods and increasing the inflow of capital goods, rawmaterial goods, remittances and foreign direct investment.Keyword : Remittance, Foreign Direct Investment, Import, Economic Growth andECM

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