scholarly journals Energy Security and Scenario Analysis of Province One of Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 104-121
Author(s):  
Sujan ` Dulal ◽  
Shree Raj Shakya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Normal Growth ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
Energy Mix ◽  
Intervention Scenario ◽  
Growth Scenario

This paper presents the current energy security status of the Province One of Federal Democratic Republic Nepal using numerous indicators. In addition to that, with the development of five economic growth scenarios i.e. Normal growth (NOR) (5.80%), Low growth (LOW) (4.20%), High growth (HIG) (6.80%), Accelerated growth (ACC) (8.50%), and Intervention scenario (INT) on Normal growth scenario (NOR), the future energy mix and energy security indicators for the year 2040 are also calculated. The thesis also gives an overview of the variation/progress of the different indicators during the considered period of study (2017-2040). On the basis of compilation of data published by Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS) and use of model developed in Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP), the study shows the increase in demand of the final energy consumption of province in Normal growth scenario to 101.8 million GJ at 2040 from 80.2 million GJ at 2017, whereby residential sector being the largest energy consuming sector with share of 68% in the total energy mix. However, the energy consumption increases to only 86.8 million GJ at the end year in the Intervention scenario. Similarly, the electricity consumption/demand increases by 120% and 390% in the normal and intervention economic growth scenario respectively. The study also shows that the, energy intensity in the intervention scenario is brought down to 4.44 GJ/USD1000 compared to that of 15 GJ/USD1000 in the base year. Also, the electricity consumption per capita is increased to 574 kWh from 116 kWh in the base year in INT scenario. Moreover, the GHG emission in the normal growth scenario at the end year will be 592.8 kg/Capita i.e. 59.5% increase from the base year. However, with the intervention scenario adopted, the GHG emission can be limited to only 385.2 kg/Capita in the end year, which is 8% increase from the base year value of 371.8 kg/Capita. However, these values are only achieved if the provincial government helps implementing federal government's plan of promoting the renewable energy systems and technologies instead of traditional fuel woods and fossil fuels system.

scholarly journals Energy Security and Scenario Analysis of Province No. 1 of Federal Republic Nepal

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 163-173
Author(s):  
Sujan Dulal ◽  
Shree Raj Shakya
Keyword(s):  
Energy Security ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Normal Growth ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Electrical Systems ◽  
Security Indicators ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
Intervention Scenario

This paper presents the current energy security status of the province No.1 of Nepal using numerous indicators. In addition to that, with the development of six economic growth scenarios i.e. Business As Usual (BAU), Low growth (LOW), High growth (HIG), Accelerated growth (ACC), Normal growth (NOR) and Intervention scenario (INT), the future energy mix and energy security indicators for the year 2040 are also calculated. The paper also gives an overview of the variation/progress of the different indicators during the considered period of study. The study shows that the, energy intensity in the intervention scenario is brought down to 4.44 GJ/$1000 compared to that of 15 GJ/$1000. Also, the electricity consumption per capita is increased to 574 kWh from 116 in the base year. However, these values are only achieved if the provincial government helps implementing central government's plan of promoting the electrical systems instead of traditional fuel woods and fossil fuels system.

scholarly journals A Review on Energy and Renewable Energy Policies in Iran

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 7328
Author(s):  
Saeed Solaymani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption

Iran, endowed with abundant renewable and non-renewable energy resources, particularly non-renewable resources, faces challenges such as air pollution, climate change and energy security. As a leading exporter and consumer of fossil fuels, it is also attempting to use renewable energy as part of its energy mix toward energy security and sustainability. Due to its favorable geographic characteristics, Iran has diverse and accessible renewable sources, which provide appropriate substitutes to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Therefore, this study aims to examine trends in energy demand, policies and development of renewable energies and the causal relationship between renewable and non-renewable energies and economic growth using two methodologies. This study first reviews the current state of energy and energy policies and then employs Granger causality analysis to test the relationships between the variables considered. Results showed that renewable energy technologies currently do not have a significant and adequate role in the energy supply of Iran. To encourage the use of renewable energy, especially in electricity production, fuel diversification policies and development program goals were introduced in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Diversifying energy resources is a key pillar of Iran’s new plan. In addition to solar and hydropower, biomass from the municipal waste from large cities and other agricultural products, including fruits, can be used to generate energy and renewable sources. While present policies indicate the incorporation of sustainable energy sources, further efforts are needed to offset the use of fossil fuels. Moreover, the study predicts that with the production capacity of agricultural products in 2018, approximately 4.8 billion liters of bioethanol can be obtained from crop residues and about 526 thousand tons of biodiesel from oilseeds annually. Granger’s causality analysis also shows that there is a unidirectional causal relationship between economic growth to renewable and non-renewable energy use. Labor force and gross fixed capital formation cause renewable energy consumption, and nonrenewable energy consumption causes renewable energy consumption.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSALITY OF CO2 EMISSIONS, CONSUMPTION OF FOSSIL FUELS, ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA IN 1990-2019

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (02) ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
Melati Intan Kurnia ◽  
Hadi Sasana ◽  
Yustirania Septiani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Fuel Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Fossil Fuel Consumption

<p><em>Increasing economic growth will spark against increased energy consumption. But on the other hand, increasing economic growth will also trigger the occurrence of natural damage and degradation of environmental quality derived from CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions are caused by oxidation process of fossil fuel energy. This research aims to know the causality relationship between CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption, electricity consumption, and economic growth in Indonesia, as well as long-term relationship between CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption, electricity consumption, to economic growth in Indonesia in 1990 – 2019. The used data is the secondary data that is in the form of data time series. The dependent variables of this study are economic growth, while independent variables are CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption, electricity consumption. The method that is used in this study is Vector Error Correction Model. The results showed that there was a one-way causality between economic growth and fossil fuel consumption, and between electricity consumption and CO2 emissions. The research also shows that on long-term CO2 emissions has a negative influence, while the consumption of fossil fuels and electricity has a positive effect on Indonesia's economic growth in 1990-2019.</em></p><p><strong><em>K</em></strong><strong><em>eywords</em></strong><em>: CO2, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth.</em></p>

scholarly journals Cointegration and Causality Analysis of Dynamic Linkage between Industrial Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 4546 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandio ◽  
Rauf ◽  
Jiang ◽  
Ozturk ◽  
Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Industrial Oil ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Industrial Energy ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Gas Consumption

Energy consumption is a crucial factor to promote industrial sector contribution in an economy for its economic progression. Indeed, Pakistan is an emerging country, but recently adjoining with a very severe deficit of electricity sources. Hence, the industry value added growth leading to economic progression is also fronting inevitable challenges to promote the industry growth. The main objective of the study is to investigate the linkages between industrial sector oil, gas and electricity consumption, and renewable energy consumption with economic development in Pakistan. The findings display evidence of cointegration and a long-run relationship between the consumption of industrial energy and economic growth in Pakistan. The results showed that industrial electricity consumption and industrial gas consumption have a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth both in the long run and the short run in Pakistan. Industrial oil consumption negatively impacts economic growth in the long run, but positively and statistically significantly impacts economic growth in the short run in Pakistan. Moreover, indications through the vector error correction model (VECM) model confirmed bi-directional relationships of industrial sector oil consumption and economic growth in Pakistan. Furthermore, the uni-directional nexus instituted between economic growth to industrial electricity consumption, industrial gas consumption to industrial electricity consumption, and industrial oil consumption to industrial electricity consumption. The findings uncovered solid interconnections among the studied variables and suggested that the Pakistani government should build a robust policy to diminish the oil, gas, and fossil fuels consumption for electricity production, as a replacement to depend on solar, hydro, wind, and biomass energy sources in Pakistan. Consequently, the government should promote more gas concentrated projects, as these will alleviate the contests of gas dearth and provide it to the industry at cheap prices with ease.

Energy Saving and Economic Growth: Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data

2013 ◽  
Vol 805-806 ◽  
pp. 591-594
Author(s):  
Dong Heng Hao ◽  
Guo Zhu Li ◽  
Dian Ru Wang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Energy Saving ◽  
Information Disclosure ◽  
Industrial Structure ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Participation Mechanisms

we analyzed the relationship between energy conservation and economic using panel data. the reduction of energy consumption per unit of GDP and energy consumption per unit of industrial value-added will promote economic growth, however, lower electricity consumption per unit of GDP may inhibit economic growth. Finally, this article puts forward corresponding suggestions, including improving the relevant laws and regulations, speeding up the energy saving information disclosure, improving public participation mechanisms, speeding up the adjustment of industrial structure and technological innovations, and promoting the reform of energy prices.

Economic growth and energy consumption nexus in Pakistan

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waqas Ahmed ◽  
Khalid Zaman ◽  
Sadaf Taj ◽  
Rabiah Rustam ◽  
Muhammad Waseem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Capita Income ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Per Capita Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThis study aims to examine the relationship between electricity consumption per capita (ELEC) and real per capita income (Y), as the direction of causation of this relationship remains controversial in the existing literature. It also seeks to explore the relationship between energy consumption per capita (ENC) and real per capita income, over a 34‐year period (between 1975 and 2009).Design/methodology/approachThe study uses Johansen cointegration technique to determine the short‐ and long‐run relationship between the variables. The authors also utilize Granger causality test to determine the causal relationship between the selected variables.FindingsThe study provides evidence of bi‐directional causality between the electricity consumption per capita and real per capita income on one hand; and energy consumption per capita and real per capita income on the other hand as the direction of causality has significant policy implications.Research limitations/implicationsThis study does not include all dimensions of the energy growth, but is limited to the three variables which the authors consider to be critical to economic development, including energy consumption, electricity consumption and economic growth.Originality/valueThe study uses a sophisticated econometric technique with additional tests of forecasting framework to examine the effect of energy demand on economic growth over a period of the next ten years, i.e. 2010‐2019, in the context of Pakistan. The impulse response describes the reaction of the system as a function of independent variable that parameterizes the dynamic behavior of the system.

scholarly journals Impact on Renewable Design Requirements of Net-Zero Carbon Buildings under Potential Future Climate Scenarios

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Dongsu Kim ◽  
Heejin Cho ◽  
Pedro J. Mago ◽  
Jongho Yoon ◽  
Hyomun Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
Generation System ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Zero Carbon ◽  
The U.S

This paper presents an analysis to foresee renewable design requirement changes of net- zero carbon buildings (NZCBs) under different scenarios of potential future climate scenarios in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest regions. A climate change model is developed in this study using the Gaussian random distribution method with monthly temperature changes over the whole Northeast and Midwest regions, which are predicted based on a high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario (i.e., the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5). To reflect the adoption of NZCBs potential in future, this study also considers two representative future climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2080s of climate change years in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest regions. An office prototype building model integrates with an on-site photovoltaics (PV) power generation system to evaluate NZCB performance under the climate change scenarios with an assumption of a net-metering electricity purchase agreement. Appropriate capacities of the on-site PV system needed to reach NZCB balances are determined based on the building energy consumption impacted by the simulated climate scenarios. Results from this study demonstrated the emission by electricity consumption increases as moving toward the future scenarios of up to about 25 tons of CO2-eq (i.e., about 14% of the total CO2-eq produced by the electricity energy source) and the PV installation capacity to offset the emission account for the electricity consumption increases significantly up to about 40 kWp (i.e., up to more than 10% of total PV installation capacities) as the different climate scenarios are applied. It is concluded that the cooling energy consumption of office building models would significantly impact GHG emission as future climate scenarios are considered. Consequently, designers of NZCBs should consider high performance cooling energy systems in their designs to reduce the renewable energy generation system capacity to achieve net-zero carbon emission goals.

scholarly journals Increased Fossil Fuel Consumption and Its Impact on Energy Efficiency and Economic Growth

2022 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 188
Author(s):  
Kehinde Damilola Ilesanmi ◽  
Devi Datt Tewari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Change Mitigation

Energy efficiency improvement is believed to be an effective means of reducing energy consumption thereby reducing green-house gas emission and as well promoting sustainable economic development. Therefore, ascertaining the energy efficiency level will guide policy makers on the right kind policy intervention that will guarantee energy security, climate change mitigation and sustainable growth and development. The study employed a multivariate regression technique to estimation of the impact of a change in the energy structure on aggregate energy efficiency and economic growth. It was revealed in the study that, though an increase usage of fossil fuel is an important factor input for economic growth, however, it is inimical to the efforts aimed at combating climate change. The study also revealed that the marginal efficiency of the energy inputs is important for ensuring increased output as well as sustainable energy supply. Energy efficiency was seen as a mechanism for improving optimal energy utilization. Therefore, improving the level of energy efficiency will significantly assist in providing clean energy coupled with achieving sustainable development goals. This will benefit the nation in terms of ensuring energy security together with climate change mitigation. Policy makers should also focus more on investing in energy efficiency promoting technologies in order to reduce the per capita energy consumption without compromising the economic output level.   Received: 16 June 2021 / Accepted: 7 November 2021 / Published: 3 January 2022

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