Energy Security and Scenario Analysis of Province No. 1 of Federal Republic Nepal

This paper presents the current energy security status of the province No.1 of Nepal using numerous indicators. In addition to that, with the development of six economic growth scenarios i.e. Business As Usual (BAU), Low growth (LOW), High growth (HIG), Accelerated growth (ACC), Normal growth (NOR) and Intervention scenario (INT), the future energy mix and energy security indicators for the year 2040 are also calculated. The paper also gives an overview of the variation/progress of the different indicators during the considered period of study. The study shows that the, energy intensity in the intervention scenario is brought down to 4.44 GJ/$1000 compared to that of 15 GJ/$1000. Also, the electricity consumption per capita is increased to 574 kWh from 116 in the base year. However, these values are only achieved if the provincial government helps implementing central government's plan of promoting the electrical systems instead of traditional fuel woods and fossil fuels system.

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Energy Security and Scenario Analysis of Province One of Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal

Journal of the Institute of Engineering ◽

10.3126/jie.v15i3.32158 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 15 (3) ◽

pp. 104-121

Author(s):

Sujan ` Dulal ◽

Shree Raj Shakya

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Energy Security ◽

Democratic Republic ◽

Electricity Consumption ◽

Normal Growth ◽

Ghg Emission ◽

Energy Mix ◽

Intervention Scenario ◽

Growth Scenario

This paper presents the current energy security status of the Province One of Federal Democratic Republic Nepal using numerous indicators. In addition to that, with the development of five economic growth scenarios i.e. Normal growth (NOR) (5.80%), Low growth (LOW) (4.20%), High growth (HIG) (6.80%), Accelerated growth (ACC) (8.50%), and Intervention scenario (INT) on Normal growth scenario (NOR), the future energy mix and energy security indicators for the year 2040 are also calculated. The thesis also gives an overview of the variation/progress of the different indicators during the considered period of study (2017-2040). On the basis of compilation of data published by Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS) and use of model developed in Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP), the study shows the increase in demand of the final energy consumption of province in Normal growth scenario to 101.8 million GJ at 2040 from 80.2 million GJ at 2017, whereby residential sector being the largest energy consuming sector with share of 68% in the total energy mix. However, the energy consumption increases to only 86.8 million GJ at the end year in the Intervention scenario. Similarly, the electricity consumption/demand increases by 120% and 390% in the normal and intervention economic growth scenario respectively. The study also shows that the, energy intensity in the intervention scenario is brought down to 4.44 GJ/USD1000 compared to that of 15 GJ/USD1000 in the base year. Also, the electricity consumption per capita is increased to 574 kWh from 116 kWh in the base year in INT scenario. Moreover, the GHG emission in the normal growth scenario at the end year will be 592.8 kg/Capita i.e. 59.5% increase from the base year. However, with the intervention scenario adopted, the GHG emission can be limited to only 385.2 kg/Capita in the end year, which is 8% increase from the base year value of 371.8 kg/Capita. However, these values are only achieved if the provincial government helps implementing federal government's plan of promoting the renewable energy systems and technologies instead of traditional fuel woods and fossil fuels system.

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Toxic Income as a Trigger of Climate Change

revistapuce ◽

10.26807/revpuce.v0i108.221 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Fander Falconí ◽

Rafael Burbano ◽

Pedro Cango ◽

Jesús Ramos-Martín

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Co2 Emissions ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Temperature Limit ◽

Average Temperature ◽

Permissible Levels ◽

Per Capita ◽

Business As Usual ◽

The Relationship ◽

Intervention Scenario

The rate of CO2 emissions concentration in the atmosphere increasesthe likelihood of significant impacts on humankind and ecosystems. Theassumption that permissible levels of greenhouse gas emissions cannot exceed the global average temperature increase of 2 ºC in relation to pre-industrial levels remains uncertain. Despite this uncertainty, the direct implication is that enormous quantities of fossil fuels have, thus far, wrongly been counted as assets by hydrocarbon firms as they cannotbe exploited if we want to keep climate under certain control. These are the socalled “toxic assets”. Due to the relationship among CO2 emissions, GDP, energy consumption, and energy efficiency, the concept of toxic assets can be transferred to toxic income, which is the income level that would generate levels of CO2 emissions incompatible with keeping climate change under control. This research, using a simulation model based on country-based econometric models, estimated a threshold for income per capita above which the temperature limit of 2 ºC would be surpassed. Under the business as usual scenario, average per capita income would be $14,208 (in constant 2010 USD) in 2033; and underthe intervention scenario, which reflects the commitments of the COP21 meeting held in Paris in December 2015, the toxic revenue would be $13,433 (in constant 2010 USD) in 2036.

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Toxic Income as a Trigger of Climate Change

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11082448 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (8) ◽

pp. 2448

Author(s):

Fander Falconí ◽

Rafael Burbano ◽

Jesus Ramos-Martin ◽

Pedro Cango

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Co2 Emissions ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Temperature Limit ◽

Average Temperature ◽

Permissible Levels ◽

Per Capita ◽

Business As Usual ◽

The Relationship ◽

Intervention Scenario

The rate of CO2 emissions concentration in the atmosphere increases the likelihood of significant impacts on humankind and ecosystems. The assumption that permissible levels of greenhouse gas emissions cannot exceed the global average temperature increase of 2 °C in relation to pre-industrial levels remains uncertain. Despite this uncertainty, the direct implication is that enormous quantities of fossil fuels have, thus far, wrongly been counted as assets by hydrocarbon firms as they cannot be exploited if we want to keep climate under certain control. These are the so-called “toxic assets”. Due to the relationship among CO2 emissions, GDP, energy consumption, and energy efficiency, the concept of toxic assets can be transferred to toxic income, which is the income level that would generate levels of CO2 emissions incompatible with keeping climate change under control. This research, using a simulation model based on country-based econometric models, estimated a threshold for income per capita above which the temperature limit of 2 °C would be surpassed. Under the business as usual scenario, average per capita income would be $14,208 (in constant 2010 USD) in 2033; and under the intervention scenario, which reflects the commitments of the COP21 meeting held in Paris in December 2015, the toxic revenue would be $13,433 (in constant 2010 USD) in 2036.

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Biofuels from wastes in the Marmara Region, Turkey: Potentials and constraints

10.21203/rs.3.rs-245086/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Semra Ocak ◽

Sevil Acar

Keyword(s):

Energy Security ◽

Energy Production ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Electricity Consumption ◽

Agricultural Wastes ◽

Marmara Region ◽

Economic Costs ◽

Direct Combustion ◽

Animal Wastes ◽

The Cost

Abstract Turkey as an energy importing country, is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, which causes an increase in environmental problems and raises concerns on energy security. However, biowastes offer a significant potential, especially in the Marmara Region of the country. In this study, the waste potential of the region for energy production is analyzed. Within this context, agricultural and livestock wastes are examined in terms of their amounts, theoretical energy potentials and costs to generate electricity. To evaluate economic costs, collection and feedstock costs for animal and agricultural wastes are handled in three different scenarios based on FAO’s assessment. Given the results for wastes and energy potentials, it has been deduced that biowastes can theoretically meet more than half of the electricity consumption of the region. The results of the cost analysis demonstrate that both direct combustion of agricultural wastes and conversion of animal wastes to biogas in CHP plants to produce electricity are economical according to several scenario options considering the LCOE and feed-in-tariff values.

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A Review on Energy and Renewable Energy Policies in Iran

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13137328 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (13) ◽

pp. 7328

Author(s):

Saeed Solaymani

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Renewable Energy ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Causal Relationship ◽

Energy Security ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Agricultural Products ◽

Energy Resources ◽

Causality Analysis ◽

Renewable Energy Consumption

Iran, endowed with abundant renewable and non-renewable energy resources, particularly non-renewable resources, faces challenges such as air pollution, climate change and energy security. As a leading exporter and consumer of fossil fuels, it is also attempting to use renewable energy as part of its energy mix toward energy security and sustainability. Due to its favorable geographic characteristics, Iran has diverse and accessible renewable sources, which provide appropriate substitutes to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Therefore, this study aims to examine trends in energy demand, policies and development of renewable energies and the causal relationship between renewable and non-renewable energies and economic growth using two methodologies. This study first reviews the current state of energy and energy policies and then employs Granger causality analysis to test the relationships between the variables considered. Results showed that renewable energy technologies currently do not have a significant and adequate role in the energy supply of Iran. To encourage the use of renewable energy, especially in electricity production, fuel diversification policies and development program goals were introduced in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Diversifying energy resources is a key pillar of Iran’s new plan. In addition to solar and hydropower, biomass from the municipal waste from large cities and other agricultural products, including fruits, can be used to generate energy and renewable sources. While present policies indicate the incorporation of sustainable energy sources, further efforts are needed to offset the use of fossil fuels. Moreover, the study predicts that with the production capacity of agricultural products in 2018, approximately 4.8 billion liters of bioethanol can be obtained from crop residues and about 526 thousand tons of biodiesel from oilseeds annually. Granger’s causality analysis also shows that there is a unidirectional causal relationship between economic growth to renewable and non-renewable energy use. Labor force and gross fixed capital formation cause renewable energy consumption, and nonrenewable energy consumption causes renewable energy consumption.

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An integrated future approach for the energy security of Pakistan: Replacement of fossil fuels with syngas for better environment and socio-economic development

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews ◽

10.1016/j.rser.2021.111978 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 156 ◽

pp. 111978

Author(s):

Saira Kanwal ◽

Muhammad Taqi Mehran ◽

Muhammad Hassan ◽

Mustafa Anwar ◽

Salman Raza Naqvi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Energy Security ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Socio Economic Development

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Analysis of Energy System in Norway with Focus on Energy Consumption Prediction

Management of Sustainable Development ◽

10.1515/msd-2017-0008 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 5-14 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Maryam Hamlehdar ◽

Alireza Aslani

Keyword(s):

Energy Consumption ◽

Energy Demand ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Renewable Energy Sources ◽

Electricity Consumption ◽

Energy System ◽

High Energy ◽

Regression Result ◽

Industry Growth ◽

The Status

Abstract Today, the fossil fuels have dominant share of energy supply in order to respond to the high energy demand in the world. Norway is one of the countries with rich sources of fossil fuels and renewable energy sources. The current work is to investigate on the status of energy demand in Norway. First, energy and electricity consumption in various sectors, including industrial, residential are calculated. Then, energy demand in Norway is forecasted by using available tools. After that, the relationship between energy consumption in Norway with Basic economics parameters such as GDP, population and industry growth rate has determined by using linear regression model. Finally, the regression result shows a low correlation between variables.

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ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSALITY OF CO2 EMISSIONS, CONSUMPTION OF FOSSIL FUELS, ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA IN 1990-2019

AFEBI Economic and Finance Review ◽

10.47312/aefr.v4i02.265 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 (02) ◽

pp. 113

Author(s):

Melati Intan Kurnia ◽

Hadi Sasana ◽

Yustirania Septiani

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Fuel Consumption ◽

Co2 Emissions ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Fossil Fuel ◽

Electricity Consumption ◽

Negative Influence ◽

Fossil Fuel Consumption

Increasing economic growth will spark against increased energy consumption. But on the other hand, increasing economic growth will also trigger the occurrence of natural damage and degradation of environmental quality derived from CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions are caused by oxidation process of fossil fuel energy. This research aims to know the causality relationship between CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption, electricity consumption, and economic growth in Indonesia, as well as long-term relationship between CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption, electricity consumption, to economic growth in Indonesia in 1990 – 2019. The used data is the secondary data that is in the form of data time series. The dependent variables of this study are economic growth, while independent variables are CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption, electricity consumption. The method that is used in this study is Vector Error Correction Model. The results showed that there was a one-way causality between economic growth and fossil fuel consumption, and between electricity consumption and CO2 emissions. The research also shows that on long-term CO2 emissions has a negative influence, while the consumption of fossil fuels and electricity has a positive effect on Indonesia's economic growth in 1990-2019.Keywords: CO2, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth.

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Dynamic Role of Renewable Eenrgy to Strengthen Energy Security and Energy Poverty Reduction: Mediating Role of Low Carbon Finance

10.21203/rs.3.rs-160306/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Dinh van Tien ◽

Thai Van Ha ◽

Tran Duc Thuan ◽

Thai Thi Kim Oanh ◽

Nguyen Phan Thu Hang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Energy Security ◽

Poverty Reduction ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Sustainable Consumption ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Low Carbon ◽

Risk Area ◽

Energy Poverty ◽

High Risk Area

Abstract This paper provides an empirical analysis of deploying renewables in Africa's five most populous countries for 2001-2019. It analyzed these factors to see how they impact deploying renewables by employing panel data using the pooled ordinary least squared(OLS) at frim level analysis to increase energy security and to reduce energy poverty. After the analysis, we proved that access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking needs the study countries to deploy renewables as most Africans cook with polluting fuels having detrimental health implications. The analyses further revealed that these countries generate a chunk of their electricity from fossil fuel sources, making it imperative to jettison fossil fuels and embrace renewables cheaper and environmentally friendly. The analysis also showed that the Quality of regulation in a country is vitally important to scaling up renewables in the study countries since the right policy tools underpin the transition. Furthermore, the lack of Electrification is important to developing renewal energy sources in the study countries. Sub-Saharan Africa has about nearly 600 million people not having access to electricity. Thus deploying renewables will bridge the access gap. Cleaner energies will be the panacea to the study countries’ energy insecurity situation and bridge the access gap. The study countries have the technical and theoretical potential for all the renewable energies needed to ensure sustainable consumption. What is needed is to institute cornerstone financial policy de-risking instruments to crowd in private capital since the renewables sector is perceived as a high-risk area.

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Linking Solar Energy Systems to Sustainable Development Goals in Africa

Science, Technology, and Innovation for Sustainable Development Goals ◽

10.1093/oso/9780190949501.003.0004 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 64-84

Author(s):

Ademola A. Adenle

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Sustainable Development ◽

Solar Energy ◽

Energy Security ◽

Poverty Reduction ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Sustainable Development Goals ◽

Vital Role ◽

Energy Technologies ◽

Development Goals

Energy was not stated as one of the millennium development goals (MDGs) but played an indirect role in helping meet the MDGs especially in the areas of housing, health, education, and poverty reduction in Africa. In contrast, the United Nations’ 2030 agenda includes 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs), one of which is devoted to energy. SDG7 seeks to ensure “access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all,” thereby creating a vital role for the energy sector to join in the task of achieving SDGs. Renewable energy including solar energy will play a significant role in improving energy security in Africa and diversifying the energy mix by reducing reliance on fossil fuels. This chapter examines the advantages of solar technologies in the context of social, economic, and environment benefits using case studies from Kenya and South Africa. This chapter also examines some of the key challenges that are associated with the application of solar energy technologies in these countries. Finally, the chapter discusses how solar energy technologies can help meet SDGs and summarizes policy and programs targeting the promotion of solar energy technologies for the implementation of SDGs.

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